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  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    It’s that time of the year again – the time when no one is thinking about baseball but I am because I’ll be writing another daily fantasy baseball book.

    I have a bit of time before I actually begin writing, so I wanted to reach out to the community and see if there’s any specific topics you want me to cover or data you want me to collect. Obviously I’ll be doing all of the normal stuff, updated for 2016 (stacking data, cap allocation, park factors, etc), but feel free to throw out any specific ideas you’d like to see me research and write about.

  • First

    Line up construction would be good for gpp and cash games….maybe stacking in cash games.

  • tipandpick

    • 2016 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2014 FAFC Champion

    Predicting ownership and multi-entry strategies are two topics that are going to explode over the next 12-24 months, IMO.

  • walkoff9

    • 595

      RG Overall Ranking

    Stacking is certainly a very interesting topic. Is it still effective long term when everyone knows about it and doing it?

  • First

    How do you approach predicting ownership? Is there a certain way?

  • soonerdawg

    This is fairly easy to look up, but I’d like to see something geared toward Pitcher vs batting order….I had a decent amount of success last season (tail end of the year) targeting pitchers who gave up higher than normal SLG to a particular order of the lineup….usually, i break it up to 1-3 hitter and 4-6 and 7-9, always going against the pitcher before cross referencing with the hitter in similar game spots

  • ir10

    @Jon Bales said...

    It’s that time of the year again – the time when no one is thinking about baseball but I am because I’ll be writing another daily fantasy baseball book.

    I have a bit of time before I actually begin writing, so I wanted to reach out to the community and see if there’s any specific topics you want me to cover or data you want me to collect. Obviously I’ll be doing all of the normal stuff, updated for 2016 (stacking data, cap allocation, park factors, etc), but feel free to throw out any specific ideas you’d like to see me research and write about.

    how can i get your book

  • Olhausen

    @ir10 said...

    how can i get your book

    Amazon is where I got mine. I got it on kindle so I could read it right on my iPad. I just hope and pray Dfs is still legal come April. Baseball has definitely been my best sport for Dfs.

  • DavidK44

    Why the Rockies are incapable of publishing a starting lineup in an even remotely reasonable manner?

  • jbuck276

    Predicting ownership for sure.

  • entropy

    Getting rid of the high school jokes and foul language. Also, reduce the white space that makes 75 pages look like 200.

  • deejones49

    Batter versus pitcher

  • Felder15

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • x2

      2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @entropy said...

    Getting rid of the high school jokes and foul language. Also, reduce the white space that makes 75 pages look like 200.

    Entropy – are you the same entropy from flyertalk?

    Regardless, I would love to see some pages dedicated to “regression.” It was such a hot topic last year (hector Santiago anyone?). I think regression is overrated and would love to see some data on it.

  • xBenJamminx

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tipandpick said...

    Predicting ownership and multi-entry strategies are two topics that are going to explode over the next 12-24 months, IMO.

    I agree with tipandpick about the multi-entry strategies and lineup construction as a topic.

  • fathalpert

    • Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Hi Jonathan,

    Here are a few questions I’ve thought about:

    1. How much can you really predict Wins for pitchers? I try not to chase those 4 points because I’ve always been told the Win is too hard to predict.

    2. I’d also be interested in the value of speedsters with no power (Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, etc.). I find myself rarely rostering them because they never hit home runs and they’d need to steal a base or hit a triple to justify their price, but am I just biased towards their lack of power?

  • soonerdawg

    JMO here, but i agree with the “wins are too hard to predict idea”…..I don’t have an exact #, but even the best pitchers in the game have no more than a 50-55% win rate once you factor ND’s and L’s…..

  • Bishman

    The most accurate and inaccurate teams by the Vegas odds for the entire MLB season.

  • First

    Could you pull the data for people that enter 20 or more line ups in a given contest and show on a given night how many of them are actually profitable and how many line ups are actually dead line ups.

  • jregger

    Most effective methods on which batter metrics to weigh more heavily / focus on when selecting batters (cash vs GPP)

  • Mirage9

    I’m not sure how easy this would be to figure out, but I’ve always wondered about Vegas team totals in regards to ballpark factors. I generally look at Vegas team totals first to get an idea of which teams to target or fade on a particular night. I often ran into this dilemma where for example the Baltimore Orioles and the San Francisco Giants each have a home game and their team totals are identical at 4 -110. Obviously they are both in favorable match ups, but it is pretty well documented that Camden Yards gives up more home runs than AT&T Park. My question is how many more fantasy points (if any) would the Orioles be likely score than the Giants in this particular situation? Would it be worth stacking the Giants and presumably relying on more singles and doubles than home runs to rack up fantasy points? Generally in this situation I would expect the Giants batters would be priced less than the Orioles too, so the Giants may be a better fantasy points/per dollar play even if they wouldn’t average more overall fantasy points than the Orioles in this hypothetical example.

    This question might not be worth writing about in a book, but it is always something I’ve wondered about for MLB. Anyways thanks for writing these books, your Fantasy Sports for Smart People series helped me get over the hump from being a break even player to a profitable player over the last year or so, and I look forward to reading your new books.

  • skeeter1114

    • Blogger of the Month

    One thing I’m wondering: Is there a certain spot in the batting order that either performance suffers or at bats significantly decrease? I understand that point that batting at the top of the order should get you additional at-bats. But, how many over the course of many samples? Also, I feel like people will target batters who bat 1-6. What is the drop off from 5 to 6, 6 to 7, and maybe 7 to 8. Finally, in regards to this, is there a significant difference between AL and NL in terms of batting order spots?

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @walkoff9 said...

    Stacking is certainly a very interesting topic. Is it still effective long term when everyone knows about it and doing it?

    Not sure. There were a lot of times when I didn’t stack in GPPs this past year, though. I’m going to try to do a lot of work on stacking and ownership.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @fathalpert said...

    Hi Jonathan,

    Here are a few questions I’ve thought about:

    1. How much can you really predict Wins for pitchers? I try not to chase those 4 points because I’ve always been told the Win is too hard to predict.

    2. I’d also be interested in the value of speedsters with no power (Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, etc.). I find myself rarely rostering them because they never hit home runs and they’d need to steal a base or hit a triple to justify their price, but am I just biased towards their lack of power?

    These are both great ideas. I think accurately predicting steals is one of the bigger potential edges in MLB right now.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @Mirage9 said...

    I’m not sure how easy this would be to figure out, but I’ve always wondered about Vegas team totals in regards to ballpark factors.

    Yeah, this is a good idea. Vegas coincides with fantasy production almost perfectly across the league, but it does make sense that it would differ based on the team/park.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @skeeter1114 said...

    One thing I’m wondering: Is there a certain spot in the batting order that either performance suffers or at bats significantly decrease?

    I believe there’s a massive drop after the No. 5 hitter. One thing I’ve wondered but don’t actually know is whether or not it’s worth stacking the bottom of the order on high-powered offenses or just going with a typical top-of-the-order stack on a less potent contrarian offense.

  • bosoxfan0509

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @Jon Bales said...

    It’s that time of the year again – the time when no one is thinking about baseball but I am because I’ll be writing another daily fantasy baseball book.

    I have a bit of time before I actually begin writing, so I wanted to reach out to the community and see if there’s any specific topics you want me to cover or data you want me to collect. Obviously I’ll be doing all of the normal stuff, updated for 2016 (stacking data, cap allocation, park factors, etc), but feel free to throw out any specific ideas you’d like to see me research and write about.

    It’s been covered some on FantasyLabs, but optimally stacking on DraftKings specifically. Is it best to stack all 6 or should you stack fewer now that it seems like everyone is stacking 6. Does it vary by team?

    Is there any validity to double stacking baseball? Is there any past evidence that if one team scores a lot of runs, does the opposing team score a lot as well, or do they give up and become less likely to score because they rest their starters and put in bench players?

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