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  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    It’s that time of the year again – the time when no one is thinking about baseball but I am because I’ll be writing another daily fantasy baseball book.

    I have a bit of time before I actually begin writing, so I wanted to reach out to the community and see if there’s any specific topics you want me to cover or data you want me to collect. Obviously I’ll be doing all of the normal stuff, updated for 2016 (stacking data, cap allocation, park factors, etc), but feel free to throw out any specific ideas you’d like to see me research and write about.

  • mlemming15

    You touched on this in your last book, but I feel like there’s room to dive a little bit deeper on this subject… What site(s) do you use for customizing/sorting the stats you analyze on a daily basis? To dive deeper, is there a certain integral stat(s) that you can only get from a certain site(s) that you piece together with data from another site like FanGraphs?

    I’ve found FanGraphs is a phenomenal resource that you can customize each individual player page to include almost any and all stats (ISO, wOBA, etc…), but when you go to the league leaders page and sort by “splits“it doesn’t let you sort by multiple stats. Meaning, I can’t look at what batters have the highest wOBA at home vs a RHP in day games. Is there a simple fix for this? Otherwise, what sites would you recommend I can find information like this?

    Could be an easy fix for this, but regardless I feel like in general FanGraphs is a great source that should be emphasized to all MLB DFS players.

    EDIT: Spelling

  • mski9

    I can’t really read your graphs in the print version

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @dp47 said...

    How much more likely is a 4.5 run Team Total to get to 12 runs as opposed to a 3.5 run Team Total?

    Not sure that 12 runs should be the goal, I’m good with 10-15.

    But I’d love to see a breakdown of how often a 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, etc got to X runs.

    Yeah, I really like this concept and already had started to do some research on it. I like it because sometimes it’s tempting to just sort of look at average runs scored (or fantasy points) when really we should be looking at the probability of reaching a certain threshold that could realistically win a GPP. So the Rockies might be just 1.0 projected runs higher than another team but have 5x the odds of reaching double-digit runs, for example. I think that would make for a more apples-to-apples comparison when you’re trying to compare upside to ownership in GPPs, too.

  • myb821

    I would be really interested in seeing that. Is there a way to get historical team run lines?

  • bruski

    I know you think i am joking but serious on this..How the top players ruined the game for everyone..same lineups and guys who are touts on sites recruiting people to join them to run same lineups and dominate the boards with single lineups., greed, site after site run by players and how about adding a chapter on how much do guys really profit who are PRO players…do an in depth analysis. i would love to see the stories about guys who won big that were one day wonders. The opposite end of the spectrum.

  • Putz

    @bruski said...

    I know you think i am joking but serious on this..How the top players ruined the game for everyone..same lineups and guys who are touts on sites recruiting people to join them to run same lineups and dominate the boards with single lineups., greed, site after site run by players and how about adding a chapter on how much do guys really profit who are PRO players…do an in depth analysis. i would love to see the stories about guys who won big that were one day wonders. The opposite end of the spectrum.

    What would you call the chapters you proposed?

  • bluesjack

    How about after a player is given a “day off” by a Manager?

    Scheduled days off are, of course, built in. I’m referring to when a regular starter doesn’t play on a scheduled day. Does it improve performance next game? If so is it a short term improvement?

    Related to this, are there any managers with a better track record in this regard? In other words, when manager X rests his players do they perform better afterwards then when Manager Y rests his players?

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    I like this idea. I can look into it more, but I believe seeing something that hitters see a (very) slight drop in productivity as a series progresses.

  • myb821

    any update on when this book will be published. With baseball season starting in just over two months………..

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 797

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @myb821 said...

    any update on when this book will be published. With baseball season starting in just over two months………..

    I didn’t start it yet. Maybe mid-March? I don’t know…doesn’t take long once I start.

  • ajv89s

    • 2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Just bought my first book and half way through. Good stuff. One thing I’ve been curious about is what % of the time players hit X amount of points. What I mean is how often would a top tier player hit at least 5 points or at least 10 or at least 15, etc. then compare that to an average player or a below average player. If the % differential between a Harper and an average player is small, I think it’d be some nice support to help show the volatility involved. Of course assumes this hasn’t been covered as I just started reading.

  • RookieRach

    The cash line of GPPs vs 50/50s.

  • DntSwtDaTcnq

    @Jon Bales said...

    doesn’t take long once I start.

    The man does not lie.

  • walkoff9

    • 595

      RG Overall Ranking

    I guess he started.

    http://www.amazon.com/Fantasy-Baseball-Smart-People-Contrarian/dp/1530413850/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1457357017&sr=1-5&keywords=daily+fantasy+baseball

  • bosoxfan0509

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    Not sure if this will be in the book, or maybe it’s available somewhere else, but is there any info available on what percentage of lineups spend x% of their salary cap?

  • HollywoodBags

    A whole section is devoted to this in a DFS baseball book. Basically, the coefficient of variation (CV) for a top pitcher like Kershaw is around 35% whereas the CV for Harper’s MVP season last year was 102%. For comparison’s sake, that 35% CV for Kershaw translates to what you’d find for a top QB in the NFL, while the 102% doesn’t translate to any other of the big three sports (NFL, MLB, NBA). The variance from day to day among hitters is huge, even among the best of them. This is why you put the big bucks into SPs — much more consistent on a start-to-start basis.

    If you’re interested:
    http://www.amazon.com/Daily-Fantasy-Baseball-Grinders-Winning-ebook/dp/B01CCZC0A8/ref=zg_bs_156394011_24

  • Killerclown

    Sweet

  • DntSwtDaTcnq

    @HollywoodBags said...

    A whole section is devoted to this in a DFS baseball book. Basically, the coefficient of variation (CV) for a top pitcher like Kershaw is around 35% whereas the CV for Harper’s MVP season last year was 102%. For comparison’s sake, that 35% CV for Kershaw translates to what you’d find for a top QB in the NFL, while the 102% doesn’t translate to any other of the big three sports (NFL, MLB, NBA). The variance from day to day among hitters is huge, even among the best of them. This is why you put the big bucks into SPs — much more consistent on a start-to-start basis.

    If you’re interested:
    http://www.amazon.com/Daily-Fantasy-Baseball-Grinders-Winning-ebook/dp/B01CCZC0A8/ref=zg_bs_156394011_24

    Have you bought this? Can anyone else vouch for this book. It’s only 3 bucks but I’m reluctant after what happened with that dude who was impersonating CSURAM88 on Amazon.

    I’ve already read Bales’ book twice so I don’t mind reading new material as long as it’s quality and not fraudulent or someshit

  • HollywoodBags

    @DntSwtDaTcnq said...

    Have you bought this? Can anyone else vouch for this book. It’s only 3 bucks but I’m reluctant after what happened with that dude who was impersonating CSURAM88 on Amazon.

    I’ve already read Bales’ book twice so I don’t mind reading new material as long as it’s quality and not fraudulent or someshit

    Yes, I’ve read the book through Kindle Select. The numbers for CV checked out and I calculated the same for other hitters and pitchers and the results were similar. Variation among batters is very large from day to day. Pitchers are much more consistent on a start to start basis.

    The eBook is about 100 pages and has a bunch of charts, examples, links, etc. I tried it out because the DFS basketball one the same author did was very good.

  • Insidethewrappe

    Love your books. One suggestion, on the graphs I can’t tell the differences in the shades of gray in the printing, so I don’t know which values go with each bar graphs etc.

    Also for example, when a pitcher has a high HR% or high HR/FB rate, do you stack hitters against them, or avoid them, because this stat will regress toward the mean, and then his rates should go down in the future ? Thanks

  • DntSwtDaTcnq

    @HollywoodBags said...

    Yes, I’ve read the book through Kindle Select. The numbers for CV checked out and I calculated the same for other hitters and pitchers and the results were similar. Variation among batters is very large from day to day. Pitchers are much more consistent on a start to start basis.

    The eBook is about 100 pages and has a bunch of charts, examples, links, etc. I tried it out because the DFS basketball one the same author did was very good.

    thanks, appreciate it.

  • DntSwtDaTcnq

    Anyone else get the feeling the new “inefficiency” is going to be people misapplying advanced stats and metrics?

    I say this because I thought I had a grasp on analytics but it wasn’t until I really dug deeper that I found just how little I knew and how badly I was misusing certain stats I thought I understood.

  • slingers

    How empires affects pitchers performances

  • meerkatmreow

    @slingers said...

    How empires affects pitchers performances

    I’ve found the Incas tend to lead to better performances than the Romans. Always stack against the Ottomans though.

  • pokerrob1970

    DraftDay BLB Finalist

    @slingers said...

    How empires affects pitchers performances

    Sometimes they Strike back

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