PGA FORUM

  • whodat2

    When: August 22-25

    Where: Atlanta, Georgia

    Course: East Lake GC | A par 70 playing at 7385 yards

    This is a NO CUT event, featuring the top 30 players in the FedEx standings.

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BrianVT

    @Pbasniper said...

    If you set a Yes/No line on the winning lineup of the $5 being a duplicate (not same score but the same 6/6 for lineup) what would your odds be for Yes and No?

    On that same note if you set a Yes/No line for the winning lineup of the $5 being the optimal line up for the week what would your odds be?

    There’s definitely a much higher chance of both happening this week than normal weeks, but I think the optimal lineup has a higher chance of the two. I made a bunch of lineups in the .25 and .50 (cuz I’m not wasting much money on this week), and a lot of them leave in the $1k – $2k range of salary on the table. I’m sure a lot of others are doing the same, and I think that raises the chances of an optimal lineup hitting, not to mention only 30 available to choose from.

    I do have some other lineups with the typical $0 to $500 or so remaining as well. $0 may end up being contrarian.

  • ilayup

    @Pbasniper said...

    If you set a Yes/No line on the winning lineup of the $5 being a duplicate (not same score but the same 6/6 for lineup) what would your odds be for Yes and No?

    On that same note if you set a Yes/No line for the winning lineup of the $5 being the optimal line up for the week what would your odds be?

    Will be interesting. The BMW had the same total dupes as any other weeks I’ve looked at (20-21% of all lineups are not solo lineups) and that field was “only” 75. I wonder if this is the tipping point of field size where we actually go well above that. These dupes didn’t have the win but there was a 7-way tie for 6th or something.

  • Pbasniper

    @BerkeleyBoss said...

    Looking at his spreadsheet, there’s definitely an edge with the guys who start at or near the top, so I don’t think it’s quite correct to just ignore starting positions. I added a column for the difference in ALT DK points vs DK points. Below are some of the larger differences. Starting position in () and the difference is how many more or less DK points they would’ve gotten under this year’s system:

    2018: Tiger (16) would’ve got 10 less….Hideki (26) would’ve got 10 less…Rose (2) would’ve got 14 more…DeChambeau (1) would’ve got 9 more

    2017: Xander (26) would’ve got 14 less…Henley (26) would’ve got 9 less…JT (2) would’ve got 10 more…Spieth (1) would’ve got 10 more

    2016: Hideki (16) woul’ve got 4 less…Dufner (26) would’ve got 3 less…DJ (1) would’ve got 8 more…Scott (3) would’ve got 3 more

    Clearly there’s a trend that the high positioned guys are getting an advantage with this system and the lower positioned guys are hurt by it. With that said, it’s pretty marginal and if you look at 2016, it hardly made any difference. I do think that on DK, the pricing is too aggressive and JT seems like a clear fade assuming he’s more than a few percent owned. Looking at FD and especially Yahoo, it makes a lot more sense to go after JT/Cantlay.

    The issue I have with going back to previous years is the tournament wasn’t played with the same constraints in place. The starting scores this year are going to dictate how guys have to approach certain holes and attack pin positions. There are guys teeing off tomorrow with the mentality of having to score and go low if they want a chance and that’s going to affect how they play versus previous years where guys may have been playing to protect a FedEx Cup $ based on a projection etc. and not really making an effort to chase birdies and instead was just looking to par.

  • jcotdl

    I am done. This week feels kinda funny……

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @Pbasniper said...

    The issue I have with going back to previous years is the tournament wasn’t played with the same constraints in place. The starting scores this year are going to dictate how guys have to approach certain holes and attack pin positions. There are guys teeing off tomorrow with the mentality of having to score and go low if they want a chance and that’s going to affect how they play versus previous years where guys may have been playing to protect a FedEx Cup $ based on a projection etc. and not really making an effort to chase birdies and instead was just looking to par.

    That’s true, but I assume it’s probably pretty negligible over 72 holes. I guess it’s more true of the guys towards the bottom who know they need to score extremely well to have a chance.

  • Pbasniper

    @ilayup said...

    Will be interesting. The BMW had the same total dupes as any other weeks I’ve looked at (20-21% of all lineups are not solo lineups) and that field was “only” 75. I wonder if this is the tipping point of field size where we actually go well above that. These dupes didn’t have the win but there was a 7-way tie for 6th or something.

    Yeah and the optimal line up was in the $8, first optimal I’ve seen in any of these WGC type field size events.

  • BrianVT

    Feeling like a Louie Louie kind of week

  • Pbasniper

    @jcotdl said...

    I am done. This week feels kinda funny……

    I finished my build Monday and all my 20 max entries…..I blew them all up today changed more core and did it again. I swear I wont before tomorrow but tee time is late enough here on East Coast I might do something dumb.

  • jcotdl

    @Pbasniper said...

    I finished my build Monday and all my 20 max entries…..I blew them all up today changed more core and did it again. I swear I wont before tomorrow but tee time is late enough here on East Coast I might do something dumb.

    I am all over the place this week. I truly feel for those SE players this week because the fomo is real..

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @BerkeleyBoss said...

    Clearly there’s a trend that the high positioned guys are getting an advantage with this system and the lower positioned guys are hurt by it. With that said, it’s pretty marginal and if you look at 2016, it hardly made any difference. I do think that on DK, the pricing is too aggressive and JT seems like a clear fade assuming he’s more than a few percent owned. Looking at FD and especially Yahoo, it makes a lot more sense to go after JT/Cantlay.

    I agree, and the numbers don’t lie, but like you said, the golfers are priced accordingly. DK priced up anyone starting high and priced down anyone starting low.

    That’s why I took a look at who “busted”. Assuming they would have all been priced in order of starting position, only 3 guys in the top 5s over 3 years (so 3 out of 15) would have ranked equal or better than their starting position/DK price ranking. So, even if the raw DK points would have been better for guys at the top, it wouldn’t have meant anything because they would have been priced accordingly. The goal is to have 6 guys who will score better than their starting position/price.

    I don’t play on FD (sometimes a little in NHL but that’s it) or Yahoo (I’m Canadian), so I don’t know about those.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @BrianVT said...

    Feeling like a Louie Louie kind of week

    +8 after day 1 and then WD?

    Edit: I’m still mad at him for withdrawing before the tournament even started a few weeks ago.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @jcotdl said...

    I am all over the place this week. I truly feel for those SE players this week because the fomo is real..

    I haven’t modified my Monday night lineup! I feel good about it but I feel it will be duplicated many times. I went with the most obvious picks.

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @Felixxberg said...

    I agree, and the numbers don’t lie, but like you said, the golfers are priced accordingly. DK priced up anyone starting high and priced down anyone starting low.

    That’s why I took a look at who “busted”. Assuming they would have all been priced in order of starting position, only 3 guys in the top 5s over 3 years (so 3 out of 15) would have ranked equal or better than their starting position/DK price ranking. So, even if the raw DK points would have been better for guys at the top, it wouldn’t have meant anything because they would have been priced accordingly. The goal is to have 6 guys who will score better than their starting position/price.

    I don’t play on FD (sometimes a little in NHL but that’s it) or Yahoo (I’m Canadian), so I don’t know about those.

    Yup, I’m with you as far as DK goes. They priced too aggressively and the advantages/disadvantages aren’t great enough to justify it. Fading the top guys, especially JT, seems to make a ton of sense.

  • lfn1992

    I am seriously chasing that Lvl 9 cut maker achievement and I am deathly afraid of a mental meltdown DFL WD from one of my golfers

  • Money0227

    The Tues AM projected ownership had JT at 23.3 at Brooks at 16.5. Now it’s JT at 21.3 and Brooks at 20.5. That pretty much sucks. I also don’t fully understand it, because I really don’t see any “experts” across the industry on Brooks.

  • jcotdl

    @Money0227 said...

    The Tues AM projected ownership had JT at 23.3 at Brooks at 16.5. Now it’s JT at 21.3 and Brooks at 20.5. That pretty much sucks. I also don’t fully understand it, because I really don’t see any “experts” across the industry on Brooks.

    I am curious if Sungjae is projected to be highly owned?

  • Cincinnatibuck

    Happy Meal Cup standings have been updated. No change at the top. Everyone in the top 22 has a chance to finish in 1st Place for the season.

  • BerkeleyBoss

    Winner: JT
    Fade: JT
    Sleeper: N/A, but I guess Oosthuizen

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @BerkeleyBoss said...

    Winner: JT
    Fade: JT
    Sleeper: N/A, but I guess Oosthuizen

    Best one so far! He could win and not be in the winning lineups.

  • ilayup

    @Money0227 said...

    The Tues AM projected ownership had JT at 23.3 at Brooks at 16.5. Now it’s JT at 21.3 and Brooks at 20.5. That pretty much sucks. I also don’t fully understand it, because I really don’t see any “experts” across the industry on Brooks.

    The JT number being higher than Brooks surprises me. Among other things there’s more limited number of lineups available with JT. Overall the avg ownership will be 20% so not surprised at both being in that ballpark (if not more considering they’re top 5).

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Cincinnatibuck said...

    Happy Meal Cup standings have been updated. No change at the top. Everyone in the top 22 has a chance to finish in 1st Place for the season.

    Thanks! What are the prizes? I’m so close yet so far! The winner has 53 points on me.

  • lfn1992

    If 20% of the field has JT, holy crap load up on, say, Woodland

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @Money0227 said...

    The Tues AM projected ownership had JT at 23.3 at Brooks at 16.5. Now it’s JT at 21.3 and Brooks at 20.5. That pretty much sucks. I also don’t fully understand it, because I really don’t see any “experts” across the industry on Brooks.

    From pure guts, I’ll take a guess and say Brooks will be around 35% and JT around 5-10% in the $555 contest. Rory and Rahm should and will be around 35% too. Rose will hit 50%.

    Like I said, pure guts.

  • Cincinnatibuck

    @Felixxberg said...

    Thanks! What are the prizes? I’m so close yet so far! The winner has 53 points on me.

    From RotoGrinders:

    1st – TShirt and Hat
    2nd – TShirt
    3rd- Hat

    I think another forum member was going to donate some prizes but I can’t find that information anymore.

  • Steverino01

    @Shino said...

    Anyone know what the Level 9 for the High-Fiver achievement is?

    785

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).