STRATEGY FORUM

  • methodical

    Anyone know of a way to do this or had success with it in DFS GPP’s?

  • onyxmeth

    Are you asking if there’s a way to track ownership percentage before contest lock? If so, there isn’t. There are only guesses.

    You can get a better inkling about players that will play in late slates by playing earlier slates and seeing their ownership percentages there, but you need to play both slates to take advantage of that info.

  • methodical

    Sorry, poorly worded question.

    What I am looking to do is predict future ownership rates by figuring out how ownership rates looked in the past, so didn’t know if anyone had a way of dissecting past GPP entries for Data. Specifically, for example, what I am looking to do is figure out what percentage someone like Ovechkin is typically owned on a 3 game slate versus a below average opp, and what ownership looks like on a big slate versus a below average opponent – and vice versa.

    I am then going to take this and utilize it in a relative risk formula so I can maximize results while minimizing risk of opponents having the same players as me.

  • whistexpert

    Doesn’t it make more sense to use your efforts toward just predicting points??

    If you are resolute in this, I’m sure it is possible. Though starting this late for hockey season means you might as well take an axe toward the idea of getting any meaningful sample size.

    The example you give about Ovi on a 3 game slate vs a below avg opponent has so many competing factors in it (are players on his team injured, are other good players in better value situations, etc etc ad nauseum) that even if you were able to hold all of these possibilities fixed, I don’t think it would lead to actionable information.

    — Or worse, it will lead to some significant results that are nothing but 100% garbage.

    I think there is some merit in this in terms of the ability to identify players to fade in GPP’s, but I feel like that is information that anyone without a model / basic intuition will be able to tell you. Ie Oliver Hanlan on tonights CBB slate is going to be > 75% owned in cash games and prob 65-70% owned in GPPs… have I ever tracked his ownership rate? No, but I know it’s a 4 game slate and the other marquee players are in less than stellar matchups.

    My 2 cents

  • colinwdrew

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Champion

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @whistexpert said...

    Doesn’t it make more sense to use your efforts toward just predicting points??

    To play devil’s advocate, since so many people can predict points that you can pay for it from so many sources, wouldn’t the ability to predict ownership be the single most valuable tool that a player could have?

    If you knew that James Neal is always lower owned than Filip Forsberg, doesn’t that dictate GPP strategy if you like the Preds?

    I have found myself surprised how frequently I am off when relying on my intuition to guess ownership. Like you said, if you can’t do it accurately it isn’t worth the lift, but if you can …

  • onyxmeth

    @colinwdrew said...

    To play devil’s advocate, since so many people can predict points that you can pay for it from so many sources, wouldn’t the ability to predict ownership be the single most valuable tool that a player could have?

    If you knew that James Neal is always lower owned than Filip Forsberg, doesn’t that dictate GPP strategy if you like the Preds?

    I have found myself surprised how frequently I am off when relying on my intuition to guess ownership. Like you said, if you can’t do it accurately it isn’t worth the lift, but if you can …

    The problem I feel would be trying to subtract that info from the vacuum you’re pulling it from. How do you place value on a player’s percentage on a certain size game slate without recreating how the other players on that slate also contributed towards ownership levels? There are many more factors than just a player and slate size. There’s every other player on all of the previous slates and how that affected or didn’t affect that player’s ownership percentage.

  • colinwdrew

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Champion

    • 2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    For sure, and maybe its a unicorn, but the value is definitely there. Haven’t incorporated it much into my play outside of casually looking at Neal vs. Forsberg, Malkin vs. Crosby type comparisons where you know everything except price was equal.

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