updated at 5:20 eastern
A few “not really a problem” spots, and 1 downright ugly game…
ATL @ PHI – Muggy and warm. Winds west at 10mph, that’s blowing out to right center.
MIL @ WASH – Muggy and warm.
PIT @ STL – Models are showing a storm system firing up west of STL, moving in the general direction of the city late tonight. The best rain chances will be after the game, and because forecast models also weaken the system at sunset, there’s a chance this entire thing falls apart before it ever reaches STL. I’m YELLOW here, because I can’t rule out a late-inning delay from that system, though I wouldn’t call it likely. Also, juicy air here, hot and humid, nice for hitters.
NYY @ CWS – Storms way overnight… really more like tomorrow morning. GREEN
OAK @ MIN – This would be the “downright ugly game” mentioned in the intro. A line of t-storms, potentially severe with winds/hail/frequent lightning will be moving through MIN right around the same time this game is scheduled to play. The orientation of the line will be key, because if it tilts more east/west, that means a longer time in heavy rain/storms, if it stays more north/south oriented, likely we get a “skinnier” section of the storm to deal with. To me, the specifics are not that important, because we won’t know those until it’s too late… here is what I think IS important: This game will see lots of rain and lightning, I don’t know if it’s enough to PPD the game, but it’s likely enough to be pretty damn close. If you absolutely forced me to make a call, I’m leaning more towards “maybe they wait out the ugly storms and get the game in”, but my confidence in that forecast isn’t high enough to roll the dice. If I was playing, I’d be out, simply because if there’s a 25-40% chance it gets PPD’d, that’s too high of a risk level for me. If you love the matchups, maybe you feel differently. ORANGE / RED , with a cautionary fade recommended.
COL @ SF – Winds blowing out to center/left center around 15-20mph.
That’s all for now, follow me on Twitter, @KevinRothWx, and check back for a later update!
GREEN – Play ball!
YELLOW – Delay possible.
ORANGE – Delay likely, PPD possible.
RED – Just say no.