LATEST UPDATE & final word: I need to bump both the Cin and CLE game to ORANGE / YELLOW, the trend I mentioned is still the same, but it’s just a matter of lingering rain being a worry. Models particularly hate the CLE game, although I’m not seeing much on radar to justify that. Either way, PPD risk is very possible in both games. Atlanta likely a delay as this storm system still slowly moving that way… NY looks good. BAL looks crazy, I would 100% fade. PHI will start OK, but will it finish? Models are split on that… I would roll the dice if you really like the match-up, but otherwise stay away… plenty of games in Cali to choose from with zero risk.
A last reminder that ALL of these games have a chance to get PPD’d, so none should be considered “safe”
Updated at 6:30 Est
This is the first pre-lock update, I will likely make another, as we still have a fresh-round of hourly forecast models to look at before lock… Use this is a guide, follow along on Twitter (@KevinRothWx), and check back here before lock, this is a very fluid situation and things will be changing.
also note – None of these games are the “safe” play, the safe play is in California and domes, these all have some degree of risk, so if you absolutely can not handle a PPD, steer clear.
BOS @ NYY – At this point it looks like the rain will hold off just long enough. The heaviest of the rain staying west will be a trend in the NE and Mid-Atlantic games. There’s some risk because that rain is a non-stop game-ender if it moves in ahead of schedule, but I models do not forecast that happening. YELLOW.
NYM @ PHI – Similar to NY in that the heaviest of the rain will stay west… but it will be even closer to PHI than NY. This game takes the slight risk of NY and amplifies it big time, because we are just that much closer to the trouble. I could also see this game starting fine, but ending in rain… though models currently hold the rain off just long enough to keep that from happening. I have this as a YELLOW / ORANGE for now, but that could change as we get closer to lock.
STL @ PIT – PPD’d already. RED.
TOR @ BAL – Again we are looking at the heaviest rain staying west of the stadium, but in this case it’s just too close, and even the light rain will likely grind this game to a halt. If it starts, I don’t think it finishes… and quite honestly I am skeptical that it ever starts. RED / ORANGE…. keeping in some orange because if that heaviest band was farther east it would be a true “no way in hell” red (like PIT was earlier).
CHC @ CIN – This is one where the general trend is actually drying out. Unfortunately for us that is likely to be a rather slow process. I have this as YELLOW / ORANGE. I could see a late start here, but eventually enough clearing to play. Still obviously some PPD risk involved.
MIN @ CLE – Good news is that it is clearing and drying up already. The bad is that models bring in a secondary line during the game. I’m starting to see that line develop now on radar, and it doesn’t look too threatening at the moment. I’m going to put this as YELLOW / ORANGE as well, leaning towards the game playing (possibly with a late start). Another one that will be updated with new models before lock.
WASH @ ATL – The overall coverage of storms in ATL isn’t all that impressive, there’s only one ugly storm I’m watching, and it is SLOWLY moving towards Atlanta. Forecast models have it never reaching the stadium, which would make a clean game with no issues. I’m not fully sold on that, so I have to keep some risk in. I’m putting this at YELLOW.
KC @ CWS – Windiest game of the year?!? Sustained winds from the NNE 25-30 mph, gusts nearing 40mph. That will be blowing out to right, and should be a big boost for lefty power hitters.
If you are not following along on twitter tonight you are going to miss a lot, so be sure to keep a watch on @KevinRothWx!
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