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  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    NOTE

    This is the final matchday for the UCL group stages, following the conclusion of this week’s games the top two seeds advance to the next round, all 3rd place teams are placed in the EUROPA League. There will be a draw on Dec. 17th for the next round, and play will resume in mid-February.

    TUESDAY

    Group B

    Barcelona (SPN) @ Spurs (ENG) UEFA Match Page

    PSV Eindhoven (NED) @ Inter Milan (ITA) UEFA Match Page

    Group A

    Atletico Madrid (SPN) @ Club Brugge (BEL) UEFA Match Page

    Dortmund (GER) @ Monaco (FRA) UEFA Match Page

    Group C

    Napoli (ITA) @ Liverpool (ENG) UEFA Match Page

    PSG (FRA) @ Red Star (SRB) UEFA Match Page

    NOT ON MAIN SLATE

    Group D

    Lokomotiv Moskva (RUS) @ Schalke (GER) UEFA Match Page

    Porto (POR) @ Galatasaray (TUR) UEFA Match Page

    WEDNESDAY

    Group E

    AEK (GRE) @ Benfica (POR) UEFA Match Page

    Bayern Munich (GER) @ Ajax (NED) UEFA Match Page

    Group F

    Hoffenheim (GER) @ Manchester City (ENG) UEFA Match Page

    Lyon (FRA) @ Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR) UEFA Match Page

    Group H

    Manchester United (ENG) @ Valencia (SPN) UEFA Match Page

    Juventus (ITA) @ Young Boys (SWI) UEFA Match Page

    NOT ON MAIN SLATE

    Group G

    Roma (ITA) @ Plzen (CZK) UEFA Match Page

    CSKA Moscow (RUS) @ Real Madrid (SPN) UEFA Match Page

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    Just a quick rundown for anyone interested

    Today is the last set of group stage matches. After this week the top two from each group move on, thirds go into the EUROPA competition, and the fourths go home. 1st place teams are all seeded 1 through 8 (as Barca, Real Madrid, and Porto have already advanced, they are already seeded), and all second place teams are drawn to play a 1st place team (meaning, no group winner will play another group winner, and every second place team are guaranteed to play a group winner). So, while progression may be set for some teams, not having to play a Manchester, Barca, Real Madrid, either PSG or Napoli, yeah, kind of a big deal. As mentioned all third places go into the EUROPA Round of 32 (basically, their knockouts).

    I love Matchday 6. It’s what the season is all about.

  • Lee123

    Target Inter/Liverpool/PSG players. They have the best of matchups and all need wins, while two are against last place teams.

  • LegiaWwa

    It seems extra pointless to make many lineups before the starting XI are announced. There could be tons of value opening up with the teams that don’t need a result.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @LegiaWwa said...

    It seems extra pointless to make many lineups before the starting XI are announced.

    While I find this with most sports, it’s super true in soccer.
    All you can really do is make a filler/dummy lineup and enter it in whatever you want to play and wait until lineups are out. Its tough, but the only viable option.

  • rgriffin37

    At least we are guaranteed one full hour to figure it out. As opposed to the NBA where guys are scratched 4 minutes before lock (or even 4 minutes after), sometime with no prior indication that they might miss.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @rgriffin37 said...

    As opposed to the NBA where guys are scratched 4 minutes before lock (or even 4 minutes after), sometime with no prior indication that they might miss.

    yeah, I appreciate FD tried the lose the lowest score, but Ill never play NBA until that settles down lolol

  • Ndepompei

    Thinking about paying all the way down at goalie and taking Zoet

  • milanman21

    I’m probably going to be way off on this, but I see Liverpool-Napoli being tight. If you play Pool guys and win all the moneys, congrats. I just think Ancelotti will have Napoli organized, as will Klopp, and this may not be the free-flowing game everyone is expecting. I’m theorying for 1-1 with Napoli scoring first. Both teams are great on the break but each team has a top defender (Virgil for Pool and Koulibaly for Napoli) who can help diffuse things. And I don’t see either team pressing high, as if the press is broken, each team has the attackers to pull defenses apart. I see both teams in mid-block, a lot, and that could take the air out of the game. If I’m theorying 1-1, then I don’t see the studs in this game getting there.

  • milanman21

    @Lee123 said...

    Target Inter/Liverpool/PSG players. They have the best of matchups and all need wins, while two are against last place teams.

    Pool don’t have that easy a matchup, Napoli have quality all over the pitch and have defended better under Ancelotti. Inter yes, and BVB is another good place to go with Monaco decimated.

  • rgrinders34

    Barca has absolutely nothing to play for. If they throw out a B squad Tot should be able to score.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @milanman21 said...

    but I see Liverpool-Napoli being tight

    I do too, but anything could blow it wide open. Liverpool winning (with PSG) means Napoli will be out, and they won’t sit back and just let things happen. If one team gets in front, the other will be forced to take every risk in order to progress. Considering these are two teams who set up for the counter, who every scores first will probably win, and probably by a lot due to the other getting caught out.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    Dortmund, Atleti, Barca, they can just sit and defend, hope for a goal and win, progress.
    If Napoli waits around, they will go from one to EUROPA in an instant. They will go for this.
    Same with Liverpool/Spurs/Inter, if they sit around they lose and end up EUROPA.

    Nobody can afford to sit around today. Mind you, they totally can, but I bet if Sir Alex was still manager there’d be nobody sitting around. Game just isn’t like it used to be.

  • milanman21

    @sirrobert6 said...

    I do too, but anything could blow it wide open. Liverpool winning (with PSG) means Napoli will be out, and they won’t sit back and just let things happen. If one team gets in front, the other will be forced to take every risk in order to progress. Considering these are two teams who set up for the counter, who every scores first will probably win, and probably by a lot due to the other getting caught out.

    Napoli aren’t going to sit back, the players don’t have the personality for that and Ancelotti has adapted his approach. He does, however, make the key changes to put Napoli in position to get the right result, something you didn’t see from Sarri’s Napoli. I am expecting Napoli in 4-4-2 where Callejon plays as a right sided midfielder (and kills his fantasy value) and Ruiz on the left, they have done this a few times, including keeping a very attack-minded Atalanta under control with it. Granted, Liverpool’s forwards are better than Atalanta’s but Napoli have match experience with this system and using it against strong attacking sides.

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    What do teams have to play for (3rd place is still Europa League)?

    Atletico- Clinched Round of 16. Finish first in group with a win or if Dortmund does not win
    Barcelona- Won group already. Nothing to play for.
    Dortmund- Clinched Round of 16 spot. Would have to win and Atletico lose to finish first in group.
    Brugge- Finished 3rd in group. Nothing to play for.
    Crvena Zvezda- Finish 3rd in group with win and Liverpool loss.
    Inter Milan- Will finish 2nd in group with Win and Tottenham loss or draw OR with draw and Tottenham loss
    Liverpool- must win to advance to Round of 16
    Monaco- will finish last in group. Nothing to play for.
    Napoli- will advance with win or draw OR a loss and PSG loss
    PSG- will advance with a win OR draw/loss and Liverpool loss
    PSV- will finish last in group. Nothing to play for.
    Tottenham- Will finish 2nd in group with win over Barcelona OR draw and draw/loss by Inter

    So I think there are 4 teams where their lineups could be almost anything today. Dortmund possibly too as it is unlikely they win the group. Everyone else has something to play for.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @milanman21 said...

    Granted, Liverpool’s forwards are better than Atalanta’s but Napoli have match experience with this system and using it against strong attacking sides

    I’m going to post this without looking, but will edit after making sure, but pretty sure that’s what caused the 1-0 in Napoli, Liverpool was in amazing form too so it was a massive surprise, despite being away and what would follow.

    Liverpool’s home/away splits in the UCL are some of the gnarliest, could just as easily go the other way and it’s the Liverpool defensive chase that hits the true ceiling.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Stewburtx8 said...

    What do teams have to play for (3rd place is still Europa League)?

    correct.

    Basically, Spurs need to do better than Inter, and assuming PSG get any kind of a result, Liverpool need to win. Other than that things are fairly well sorted in terms of placements. Like you said, if Atletico get upset things could be interesting.

    Called them all “halftime teams” in my content today. Teams that go in at halftime, look at the other score, then talk about their half. Any team that’s a halftime team should be super valuable in GPP because you don’t need to predict a score or winning team, just predict the schedule and base your picks off that.

    That’s why I love UCL, easy to make money playing the schedule rather than the matchup.

  • Unico10

    • 692

      RG Overall Ranking

    Correct me if I am wrong but Liverpool isn’t for sure through with a win
    Napoli beat them 1-0 so for h2h away goals come into play… Liverpool would have to win by 2 if Napoli scores

  • milanman21

    @Unico10 said...

    Correct me if I am wrong but Liverpool isn’t for sure through with a win
    Napoli beat them 1-0 so for h2h away goals come into play… Liverpool would have to win by 2 if Napoli scores

    This is all correct. Liverpool at through with a 1-0 win, or a win by 2 goals or more. They’re out on a draw.

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @Unico10 said...

    Correct me if I am wrong but Liverpool isn’t for sure through with a win
    Napoli beat them 1-0 so for h2h away goals come into play… Liverpool would have to win by 2 if Napoli scores

    Right. I just meant they HAVE to win to have any shot to advance. Then there will be tiebreakers. Only way they can assure they advance is to win by 2+. But if it is 1-0 in the 2nd half, they also may just defend.

    Just one of those games where score and time left will dictate which team NEEDS to attack. Could be more defensive early. But early goal could open the flood gates.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    my napoli/liverpool process is….
    PSG is probably drawing or winning, therefore Liverpool need to win.
    If Napoli start winning the game, Liverpool will go beserk, throw everything forward (probably very quickly), and I’m of the opinion at Anfield, Napoli’s defense will not hold up. Liverpool win. Only hope for Napoli in this scenario is the score stays (EDIT) close until the final minutes and they tie. The sooner Liverpool has to go for it, the sooner Liverpool will win.
    If Napoli start losing, they will go for it, play into Liverpool’s hands, Liverpool (Salah) will counter the crap out of them, in particular the Napoli wing backs who aren’t particularly defensive nor fleet. Liverpool will score, then again, then again, then probably break the slate, and people complain that it was “a Salah slate and the weekend recency homers got paid” and I will say thank you.
    Basically, most Napoli scripts are -EV, and most Liverpool scripts are +EV. That doesn’t mean it’s how things will end up, just how it weighs for me.

    I’m not discounting other scripts or anything, that’s just what I see happening. Especially the last part about the Salah slate. Go ahead someone, try and tell me the DFS gods don’t have that one lined up for us.

  • tomac

    @sirrobert6 said...

    my napoli/liverpool process is….
    PSG is probably drawing or winning, therefore Liverpool need to win.
    If Napoli start winning the game, Liverpool will go beserk, throw everything forward (probably very quickly), and I’m of the opinion at Anfield, Napoli’s defense will not hold up. Liverpool win. Only hope for Napoli in this scenario is the score stays (EDIT) close until the final minutes and they tie. The sooner Liverpool has to go for it, the sooner Liverpool will win.
    If Napoli start losing, they will go for it, play into Liverpool’s hands, Liverpool (Salah) will counter the crap out of them, in particular the Napoli wing backs who aren’t particularly defensive nor fleet. Liverpool will score, then again, then again, then probably break the slate, and people complain that it was “a Salah slate and the weekend recency homers got paid” and I will say thank you.
    Basically, most Napoli scripts are -EV, and most Liverpool scripts are +EV. That doesn’t mean it’s how things will end up, just how it weighs for me.

    I’m not discounting other scripts or anything, that’s just what I see happening. Especially the last part about the Salah slate. Go ahead someone, try and tell me the DFS gods don’t have that one lined up for us.

    Correct me if I’m wrong because I’m an occasional soccer fan/dfs’er, but doesnt Liverpool need to “go for it” right away, since they need at minimum 1-0? And once the game is 1-0 Liverpool, doesnt Napoli then need to “go for it” so to speak?

    How is this game in any way low scoring, other than it’s really hard to score in soccer?

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    I do expect Liverpool to find a way to win. But Napoli is a strong side and in good form. Beat Liverpool already. Got a draw twice (home and away) with PSG. Currently firmly 2nd in Serie A. There is a reason Liverpool is only the 5th biggest favorite on this slate with one of the lower expected goal totals. But there is not really a bad game script for them as you noted unless they get up 2-3 goals (and at that point you may already have the points you need).

    This is a difficult slate in my opinion. Everyone will load up on PSG but their options are limited to 3-4 guys, and Crvena has been tough at home, although PSG should still win easily.

  • Unico10

    • 692

      RG Overall Ranking

    @sirrobert6 said...

    my napoli/liverpool process is….

    Liverpool will be well aware that conceding a goal will make their job much harder, they will start cautiously and as time goes by will increase the pressure… that will allow spaces for Inisigne, Maertens, etc and they will end up conceding a goal.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    if PSG isn’t losing, then Liverpool has to go for it. They will have no choice.
    If everyone expects PSG to not be winning, that’s one thing, but yeah, I expect things to develop rather quickly.
    PSG hasn’t really had to win yet, no side has needed a win in Serbia yet. I think this will be different.

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @tomac said...

    Correct me if I’m wrong because I’m an occasional soccer fan/dfs’er, but doesnt Liverpool need to “go for it” right away, since they need at minimum 1-0? And once the game is 1-0 Liverpool, doesnt Napoli then need to “go for it” so to speak?

    How is this game in any way low scoring, other than it’s really hard to score in soccer?

    Liverpool can play their normal game and still win 1-0 or 2-0 or 2-1. By “go for it” I think he means start sending everyone forward with the need to immediately score a goal. That won’t happen unless they fall behind or are tied in the last 20 minutes or so. Liverpool is an attacking team by nature so I don’t expect them to do anything differently to start the game. May be a little more cautious if anything even not wanting to concede early.

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