STRATEGY FORUM

  • bbbomb

    • Blogger of the Month

    Hey all,

    We got a 3 week break and then four fight cards in the span of a week.

    July 7, UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez

    July 8, TUF Finale: Jedrzejczyk vs. Gadelha

    July 9, UFC 200

    July 13, UFC Fight Night: Ferguson vs. Chiesa

    I expect July 7 and July 9 to be the most popular, with UFC 200 obviously being one of if not the biggest card of the year. I figured we could talk about general strategy or fights from any of the cards until each event gets closer.

    For now, UFC 200 are the only salaries out, and the biggest hurdle will be deciphering the 3 five-round fights. Personally, I think Tate/Nunes is the most likely to end in a finish and it will probably also be the lowest owned. I’m not sure how much exposure I’ll want to the other fights just yet, but with all 6 fighters priced easily enough to roster, I can see ending up with a ton of all.

    What do you think the best route to attack the five-round fights is and how do you project the ownership?

  • bigtroll04

    ufc 200 what a card cormier vs.jones2 very tough to cap this each fighter has only 1 loss lesnar vs. hunt lesnar is 38 now and been out of the octagon sine dec. 2011 hunt has 9ko’s in his 12 wins ok now the fights to cash in love frankie edgar and dillishaw early yet bbbomb lotta cappin to do

  • Divine_Prodigy

    As far as UFC 200 goes , Amanda Nunes at that price is a steal . I’ve thought she was going to win since the fight was announced . Women’s fights almost always go low owned (exception of Ronda or Joanna) ….& with this particular fight Tate has never really been known as a finisher(though she’s a well known name) , but she’s the champ so that will make others gravitate towards her . Amanda Nunes is underrated and a beast . Aldo-Edgar is a tricky fight & probably better suited for cash . I can’t decide on a winner ….with ownership on Miesha , I’d say 15%-20% or less & Nunes at 7% or less

  • bbbomb

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sounds like Thiago Santos is replacing Derek Brunson at UFC 200, will be interesting to see where they price Santos and if they wait for fight odds to come out.

  • Divine_Prodigy

    Yea he’s officially in , does Santos have good TDD defense ? I know against Elias it was decent but maybe I should re watch …I see that as the path for Gegard as he can’t want to stand with that killer on the feet

  • Antagonist88

    Pretty disappointed to see Brunson out, but it happens. And man, what a card 200 is. Feel like in addition to the title fights, getting through all the uncertainty of the Lesnar/Hunt fight will be huge. So much layoff, but if Brock Lesnar can get Hunt to the ground, I don’t think he gets back up. But if he can’t, Hunt could make it a short night. Lesnar will definitely be one of the highest owned I feel like due to being 9k, and just being Brock Lesnar, regardless of all uncertainty.

  • Divine_Prodigy

    Anyone thinks Brock takes advantage of the USADA exemption ? Mark Hunt seems to think so .

  • zelda3024

    @Divine_Prodigy said...

    Anyone thinks Brock takes advantage of the USADA exemption ? Mark Hunt seems to think so .

    Over Blown in my opinion he still has to be tested and has all ready submitted tests and will continue until his contract expires. I believe the USADA has the authority to test Lesnar now at any point so if he does blow a test those results will become public.

  • gravycakes

    Lesnar was tested 5 times last week by USADA apparently.

    Great card and think there’s some good cash plays in a bunch of the title fights.

  • zelda3024

    Gegard Mousasi – 667
    Thiago Santos + 445

    The odds from Opening.

  • bbbomb

    • Blogger of the Month

    omg if DK prices Santos like a +445 dog people are gonna be all over him, and I don’t necessarily think that’s a great idea. Mousasi is really talented and well-rounded.

  • zelda3024

    @bbbomb said...

    omg if DK prices Santos like a +445 dog people are gonna be all over him, and I don’t necessarily think that’s a great idea. Mousasi is really talented and well-rounded.

    Totally agree. DK most likely waiting for more odds makers to finalize Santos pricing. It does seem when Mousasi is a large favorite many of his fights go to a decision. OSP, Mike Kyle, Latifi, Costas Philippou.

  • Divine_Prodigy

    I don’t see Santos winning , as bbbomb said , Gegard is well rounded . Think Hunt just knocks Brock out ? He has to know the TD is coming as that’s the blueprint for Lesnar just as it was for Frank Mir . Lesnar hits like a truck with this huge gloves but Hunt has a chin , Lesnar ehhh not so much

  • zelda3024

    @Divine_Prodigy said...

    I don’t see Santos winning , as bbbomb said , Gegard is well rounded . Think Hunt just knocks Brock out ? He has to know the TD is coming as that’s the blueprint for Lesnar just as it was for Frank Mir . Lesnar hits like a truck with this huge gloves but Hunt has a chin , Lesnar ehhh not so much

    This for sure is a kill or be killed fight for Lesnar who will be desperate as he has not fought since 2011 and the results were not good for him. I see Lesnar coming out guns blazing throwing wild and trying to grab Hunt and pull him to the ground. If he nails him (Lucky Shot) and gets on top just like any big man it will be all over. If he misses he will tire out and Hunt will pound him back into retirement.

    Hunt can go the distance Lesnar can’t.. Hunt has even gone 5 rounds and into the 5th Round. Lesnar has going 3 rounds once in his fight life and that was in 2008. Even if Lesnar survives the first round the tank is pretty much empty and Hunt KO’s him.

  • SunTszu

    • 342

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #64

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I have a feeling that Aldo/Frankie will result in a finish. In nearly 2-years Aldo has spent a total of 13-seconds in the Octagon. I see Aldo going after Frankie early and the longer the fight lasts, advantage Frankie. Tate/Nunes: Nunes could not put Valentina away and momentum was starting to shift. Would have loved to have seen another round. Nunes has had only 2 fights determined by decision in 8-years of competing. The longer the fight goes, advantage to Tate

  • SunTszu

    • 342

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #64

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I see Santos as a live dog. Caveat, that I have little love for Mousasi as a fighter and was on Hall when he flash KO’d him. @ +445, give me some of that! Gegard fights conservative and Santos is much better than Hall, so why is the same result acvhievable?

  • Divine_Prodigy

    @SunTszu said...

    I see Santos as a live dog. Caveat, that I have little love for Mousasi as a fighter and was on Hall when he flash KO’d him. @ +445, give me some of that! Gegard fights conservative and Santos is much better than Hall, so why is the same result acvhievable?

    Everyone knows you can chalk that Uriah KO to actual luck….a fluke even…..Uriah did what he had to do to finish him off so props to him ….but he was losing that fight up until that kick .

  • Antagonist88

    @zelda3024 said...

    This for sure is a kill or be killed fight for Lesnar who will be desperate as he has not fought since 2011 and the results were not good for him. I see Lesnar coming out guns blazing throwing wild and trying to grab Hunt and pull him to the ground. If he nails him (Lucky Shot) and gets on top just like any big man it will be all over. If he misses he will tire out and Hunt will pound him back into retirement.

    Hunt can go the distance Lesnar can’t.. Hunt has even gone 5 rounds and into the 5th Round. Lesnar has going 3 rounds once in his fight life and that was in 2008. Even if Lesnar survives the first round the tank is pretty much empty and Hunt KO’s him.

    Not really sure what you’re basing your assumptions on Lesnar’s cardio off of. Yeah he’s only gone three rounds once (And he looked incredible) but he’s also a freak athlete. He actually was known for his cardio training really. And to say that Mark Hunt will have better cardio than Brock Lesnar is just crazy. I also don’t see Lesnar just coming in throwing haymakers; I feel like he’ll know enough to protect his chin for dear life and look for a takedown opening.

  • Antagonist88

    @Divine_Prodigy said...

    Everyone knows you can chalk that Uriah KO to actual luck….a fluke even…..Uriah did what he had to do to finish him off so props to him ….but he was losing that fight up until that kick .

    I’d say it’s a little far to call it a fluke. Everyone, Gegard included, knew that if he stood with Uriah Hall he was going to get cracked. He stood flat for too long directly in front of him, and you can’t do that against an elite striker with the explosiveness of Uriah. And while Uriah was technically losing that fight, Mousasi’s performance was supremely average, even nearly being caught in an armbar.

    I feel the same as SunTszu about Mousasi and was also on Uriah. Santos isn’t the same striker as Uriah Hall, but he’s still dangerous and a better grappler than Hall. Gegard stands flat a lot, and that’s gonna be dangerous against someone with the pressure of Thiago Santos. Not to mention that the dude knocked out Steve Bosse, who everyone now knows has a hell of a chin, at LHW no less.

    I also agree that Edgar could definitely finish Aldo

  • extrayardage

    Travis Browne is totally being overlooked as well. I love Cain but he has put his body through so much that I’m concerned at his health at this point. Been over a year off and Browne can very easily end a fight in the 1st round.

  • zelda3024

    @Antagonist88 said...

    Not really sure what you’re basing your assumptions on Lesnar’s cardio off of. Yeah he’s only gone three rounds once (And he looked incredible) but he’s also a freak athlete. He actually was known for his cardio training really. And to say that Mark Hunt will have better cardio than Brock Lesnar is just crazy. I also don’t see Lesnar just coming in throwing haymakers; I feel like he’ll know enough to protect his chin for dear life and look for a takedown opening.

    What am I basing my Assumption on? Well he is 38 now has not fought in 5 years has had 12 inches of colon removed. If you do not think Lesnar will have any Rust at all you go ahead and toss all your eggs in a basket and hey if it pans out the more power to you. My last two fight cards have been awful so all my eggs on either will not be in just one basket.

  • zelda3024

    @extrayardage said...

    Travis Browne is totally being overlooked as well. I love Cain but he has put his body through so much that I’m concerned at his health at this point. Been over a year off and Browne can very easily end a fight in the 1st round.

    Travis Browne is a beast you make a great point… I will never overlook a Guy like Browne who can get you serious finish points in a heartbeat. Plus his price is really nice…

  • extrayardage

    Yeah Browne is stupidly cheap. He’s a guy that can knock someone out or easily get knocked out.

    As far as Lesnar, you’re right he is older now. You almost can’t accurately predict his performance with any credibility. The sample size was too small, based on too much variance (i.e. his health), and too long ago.

    With that said, I’ll prob be splitting lineups using Hunt and Lesnar because I can’t imagine that fight going the distance.

  • Antagonist88

    @zelda3024 said...

    What am I basing my Assumption on? Well he is 38 now has not fought in 5 years has had 12 inches of colon removed. If you do not think Lesnar will have any Rust at all you go ahead and toss all your eggs in a basket and hey if it pans out the more power to you. My last two fight cards have been awful so all my eggs on either will not be in just one basket.

    Mark Hunt is 42 if we’re using age as the basis for cardio. And yeah he hasn’t been fighting but it’s not like he’s been sitting on the couch for the past five years. He still trains like a monster and has been active as a pro wrestler, which is not easy by any means. He’s going to be in good shape. And having the colon removed was more of a benefit than anything.

    By no means am I saying that he won’t be rusty or that he’s going to win the fight so I don’t want there to be a misunderstanding. What I’m saying is that if he loses, which is probable, it isn’t going to be because Mark Hunt has better cardio than him.

  • zelda3024

    @extrayardage said...

    Yeah Browne is stupidly cheap. He’s a guy that can knock someone out or easily get knocked out.

    As far as Lesnar, you’re right he is older now. You almost can’t accurately predict his performance with any credibility. The sample size was too small, based on too much variance (i.e. his health), and too long ago.

    With that said, I’ll prob be splitting lineups using Hunt and Lesnar because I can’t imagine that fight going the distance.

    I think with a fight like that it is always best to split it up. That way at least you might have 50/50 or 60/40 depending if you lean towards one fighter a little more. That way you should have fight cards with great points.

  • extrayardage

    Just looking at some basic research stuff too…out of all of Hunts losses, ALL of them were by finish. Same with Lesnar.

    That’s the fight that is really dividing my thoughts.

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