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  • LeRoiStephon

    • Blogger of the Month

    Who’s down for another title change?!? Me!!! I’m picking the upset this weekend because I don’t know how many more times Lawler can knock on death’s door and survive!! There’s only so many wars a warrior has in him and I think Lawless is running out of juice!!! Other than that, this seems to be a potentially wild night of action with some great toss up fights!! Reis will prob be the heaviest fav, but can he get the finish to justify his price.. Matt Brown seems game to be the 6tg person to whip on Ellenberger in his last 7 fights.. Serrano should grind Benoit out.. What are your thoughts?

  • DontThrowPick6

    Weigh-ins summary.

    fight pass:

    d.brown-arzamendia
    brown looks pretty decent .. better than his debut
    arzamendia also looks good.. longer and leaner.
    arzamendia is 2-3” taller & rangier

    velickovic-graves
    velickovic looks amazing back to 170.. huge WW
    graves looks strong, but i think he looked better last fight..??
    velickovic is 2-3” taller

    fs2 prelims:

    reis-sandoval
    sandoval looks alright. not a big 125.
    reis looks great.. looks much stronger
    reis 1” taller… and reis is actually the bigger guy for once.

    hamilton-grabowski
    grabowski up to 256.. he’s looked better, but i’m sure this was intentional
    hamilton looks meh. 258.5. looks fine for him.
    hamilton is 2” taller

    masvidal-pearson
    masvidal looks ok. obviously shouldn’t be 170. sporting a bit of a gut again.
    pearson up to 170… and yep, thickest he’s ever looked.. idk why these two aren’t 155.
    masvidal maybe 2” taller?

    herman-krylov
    herman at 205 again.. and yea, he’s looked way better. shorts falling down. decent gut.
    krylov looks great again at 205.
    krylov maybe 1” taller

    ppv:

    serrano-benoit
    serrano looks very strong at 125 yet again.
    benoit looks solid.
    benoit is 2” taller

    perez-rivera
    goyito looks very solid.
    rivera looks good, too.
    perez 1” taller i think

    ellenberger-m.brown
    ellenberger looks decent.. not as big as he used to, but better than some fights.
    brown looks very fit.
    brown is 3” taller (shoes on made it look like mroe)

    kowalkiewicz-namajunas
    KK looks very good. trimmest she’s been.
    rose same as always, looks good
    rose prolly 1” taller (KK shoes on)

    twood-lawler
    twood looks outstanding as always. i don’t agree with people who say he looks worse.
    lawler looks good. he’s looked better, imo, but he looks fine
    robbie is 2” taller
    the strikeforce vets face front cause of old habits!

    ——

    -i really think graves looked a lot fitter the last two weigh ins.
    -herman and masvidal both looked poor.

  • bosoxfan0509

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    Some interesting line movement I’d like to get everyone’s thoughts on… Sharp money we should take note of, public money, or just noise?..

    Woodley Inside Distance from +325 to +230
    Krylov Inside Distance from -115 to -160
    Herman Inside Distance from +205 to +425
    Graves ML has gone from -175 to -220 while Inside Distance went from +250 to +295

    Also think the Namajunas/Kowalkiewicz line is interesting. Rose has gone from -250 to -215 but her finish prop has gone down from +180 to +215 while Karolina’s finish prop has really gone down from +735 to +985. Reassures what some are saying that Karolina is a very strong cash play with her output.

  • MrNastyTime91

    What site are you pulling these odds from bosoxfan?

  • bosoxfan0509

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @MrNastyTime91 said...

    What site are you pulling these odds from bosoxfan?

    bestfightodds.com The lines I’m referring to come from 5dimes

  • MrNastyTime91

    Thanks

  • cleanslate

    At 10.2k I think Krylov is a steal. Yeah, he’s been finished in his 4 losses, but 3 of those were by submission, and his only KO loss was 3 years ago to Soa Palelei, who is currently fighting at HW. Is Herman likely to sub a guy that himself has 13 sub wins? HIGHLY unlikely imo. Krylov should have a big advantage in the grappling department. Can Herman KO him? Sure, that’s possible, but again, very, very unlikely imo.

    Herman has a slow plodding style and is way past his prime. He’s always been solid but never elite. Krylov is a much faster fighter and that speed should play a huge advantage in this fight. They move at paces that are night and day by comparison. I also think Herman was slightly losing the fight to Boetsch before catching him with that clinch knee in the 2nd round, and Boetsch is also a slow, plodding fighter that was at a height disadvantage but was able to pretty easily tag Herman quite a bit in the 1st round despite that.

    Just my 2 cents, this is MMA and anything is possible, but I’m really surprised that Krylov isn’t a way bigger favorite.

  • thetitanlb

    @cleanslate said...

    At 10.2k I think Krylov is a steal. Yeah, he’s been finished in his 4 losses, but 3 of those were by submission, and his only KO loss was 3 years ago to Soa Palelei, who is currently fighting at HW. Is Herman likely to sub a guy that himself has 13 sub wins? HIGHLY unlikely imo. Krylov should have a big advantage in the grappling department. Can Herman KO him? Sure, that’s possible, but again, very, very unlikely imo.

    Herman has a slow plodding style and is way past his prime. He’s always been solid but never elite. Krylov is a much faster fighter and that speed should play a huge advantage in this fight. They move at paces that are night and day by comparison. I also think Herman was slightly losing the fight to Boetsch before catching him with that clinch knee in the 2nd round, and Boetsch is also a slow, plodding fighter that was at a height disadvantage but was able to pretty easily tag Herman quite a bit in the 1st round despite that.

    Just my 2 cents, this is MMA and anything is possible, but I’m really surprised that Krylov isn’t a way bigger favorite.

    Yeah. The one issue though is that Krylov has been known to gas somewhat. If this gets past the 1st round i think there is a decent shot that Herman could grind out a win. Thats probably what the oddsmakers are scared of. Personally it has had me thinking about going both ways on this 1 just because krylov will be so high owned.

  • cleanslate

    @thetitanlb said...

    Yeah. The one issue though is that Krylov has been known to gas somewhat. If this gets past the 1st round i think there is a decent shot that Herman could grind out a win. Thats probably what the oddsmakers are scared of. Personally it has had me thinking about going both ways on this 1 just because krylov will be so high owned.

    I’ll probably hedge with a Herman lineup to be safe. Having a tough time putting together teams that I like overall for this event. I was high on Bojan as my main sub 9k fighter but I literally can’t find one tout that thinks he is going to win this fight vs Graves so that has me super hesitant. A lot of these mid ranged priced fights are almost pick’ems making it hard to build a good balanced lineup as well.

    I was going to play in the $27 event but I’m reconsidering at this point.

  • golferdude31

    • 651

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #86

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2016 King of Summer Champion

    Any clear fades in this slate?

  • Divine_Prodigy

    @cleanslate said...

    I’ll probably hedge with a Herman lineup to be safe. Having a tough time putting together teams that I like overall for this event. I was high on Bojan as my main sub 9k fighter but I literally can’t find one tout that thinks he is going to win this fight vs Graves so that has me super hesitant. A lot of these mid ranged priced fights are almost pick’ems making it hard to build a good balanced lineup as well.

    I was going to play in the $27 event but I’m reconsidering at this point.

    Go with your instincts , not many , rarely any as far as touting goes , think Tyron is gonna win but I damn sure do ….they did say this Bojan guy is a huge WW and he could outmuscle Graves ….that’s a solid underdog pick if he wins , gotta trust those instincts

  • kswetnam1342

    @cleanslate said...

    I’ll probably hedge with a Herman lineup to be safe. Having a tough time putting together teams that I like overall for this event. I was high on Bojan as my main sub 9k fighter but I literally can’t find one tout that thinks he is going to win this fight vs Graves so that has me super hesitant. A lot of these mid ranged priced fights are almost pick’ems making it hard to build a good balanced lineup as well.

    I was going to play in the $27 event but I’m reconsidering at this point.

    I also check out what the “experts” are saying. Never saw Bojan picked to win, but all had him losing a decision. So maybe he has a decent floor.

  • bigcrip

    @golferdude31 said...

    Any clear fades in this slate?

    scroggins and mccall :P

    this is a tough and interesting card to pick. all the touts are against SERRANO so im picking him

  • bigcrip

    @kswetnam1342 said...

    I also check out what the “experts” are saying. Never saw Bojan picked to win, but all had him losing a decision. So maybe he has a decent floor.

    sounds like a good ownership play if no one thinks he can win!! no fighter is drawing dead!

  • SunTszu

    • 359

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #68

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @cleanslate said...

    I’ll probably hedge with a Herman lineup to be safe. Having a tough time putting together teams that I like overall for this event. I was high on Bojan as my main sub 9k fighter but I literally can’t find one tout that thinks he is going to win this fight vs Graves so that has me super hesitant. A lot of these mid ranged priced fights are almost pick’ems making it hard to build a good balanced lineup as well.

    I was going to play in the $27 event but I’m reconsidering at this point.

    There are a couple that picking Serbian Steel. The guys that do the Irish Podcast come to mine. He looks to be in shape, comes from a very good camp (in the US) and has more fight experience than Graves.

  • SunTszu

    • 359

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #68

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @bosoxfan0509 said...

    Some interesting line movement I’d like to get everyone’s thoughts on… Sharp money we should take note of, public money, or just noise?..

    Woodley Inside Distance from +325 to +230
    Krylov Inside Distance from -115 to -160
    Herman Inside Distance from +205 to +425
    Graves ML has gone from -175 to -220 while Inside Distance went from +250 to +295

    Also think the Namajunas/Kowalkiewicz line is interesting. Rose has gone from -250 to -215 but her finish prop has gone down from +180 to +215 while Karolina’s finish prop has really gone down from +735 to +985. Reassures what some are saying that Karolina is a very strong cash play with her output.

    Is it me or have you been away for a while? I think that the odds drift on TW ITD is more a function of his overall line drift. Frankly, i don’t see any other path to victory for Woodley. He has made it past the 3rd round once, when he was KO’d by Nate “The Great” and since 2012 he is 1-2 in fights going 3-rounds with his 1-win a SD. If you like Woodley to win, take the ITD prop in lieu of a ML wager.

    Not sure re: the hype train on Graves. He looked decent against an inexperienced Randy Brown, though Bojan will IMHO be a tougher out

  • bosoxfan0509

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @SunTszu said...

    Is it me or have you been away for a while?

    I have been away for a while. Had a disagreement w/ DK on how they handle collusion, but ultimately get that it’s next to impossible for them to enforce.

  • thetitanlb

    Iono I’m not really in the lawyer hype like y’all. I personally thought that lawler should have lost the last 2 fights and he lost lucky decisions. I also think he was gonna lose that fight to Rory until he ko him in the 5th. Eventually these lucky decisions will stop going Robbie’s way

  • afcangelo

    BIG fan of Ruthless like most (1st or 2nd favorite UFC fighter) but I will admit, I had Condit on my scorecard at 48-47 and was shocked when Robbie’s hand was raised after the final judge read out 49-47. Also I think he lost the Hendricks rematch, but ever since he’s had that WW strap, really ever since he’s come back, this has been a different Robbie Lawler. Fit, intense as it comes, smarter, better cardio, more well rounded, and most importanly focused. That WW belt is his, and like Robbie’s said a bunch of times this presser, it’s his belt and he is going to treat Woodley accordingly. That said, Woodley has brutal KO power in that right hand, but are we 100% sure that Robbie can’t eat at least one of those monster shots?? I’m not. Why? Because I’ve seen him do it (Manhoef). I think 10.6k is a very fair price on one of the best champions in the UFC. Unless Woodley finishes this fight early (1st or 2nd) then it is going to be another war, and the longer this fight goes I think the more FPS Robbie is going to rack up. Even in the 4th and 5th rounds there’s a good chance imo that Lawler can get a gassed out Tyron Woodley to the ground and really work the elbows and that ground and pound. Any finish for Robbie and I think it’s going to be an 80+ output with a ceiling of somewhere around 120. Woodley certainly has upside at 9k, but in a vacuum, or in an octagon, I think you have to favor the proven champ here. There is a chance though, albeit small imo that Robbie isn’t going to be able to take another war. I’m fairly certain though that most of us here thinks that he can.

    Not only that, but at 9k on this slate, I really think a large amount of people in GPPs are just going to click that Main Event dog and move on. And yes, I’m another one that’s high on Ed Herman tonight, and at 9.2k I think he’s a really strong pivot away from Woodley. If I had to guess I would say Woodley’s ownership at 9k is going to be somewhere around 40%, and playing the ownership percentage game, I think there is a lot of value in a severely under owned Bojan Velickovic 8.9 and especially Kowalkiewicz 8.6k for her striking output as I don’t think Rose will be able to keep her on the ground the entire fight.

    One thing I think we all agree on though, Matt Brown has to be the lock n load top play of the night. Ownership should be through the roof though, probably around 35-40% if not more, and for good reason. Ellenberger has almost no chin anymore, and I expect Matt to come out with absolute fire. You want to really play the ownership game though, Hector Sandoval is going to be around 5% and he is a wiry, wild, unorthodox striker and it probably won’t happen, but he’s going to be looking for the finish from the very start. Reis just had to put his fantasy title aspirations on hold, and we don’t know what Reis we’re going to get because of it.

  • afcangelo

    Where can I find odds to finish?

  • thetitanlb

    The more tape i watch has me taking away my cash game exposure to krylov. Sure he has been winning fights but he has gotten very lucky in a few that he is facing low level guys. I dont see him escaping from a choke from a vet like Ed Herman. Just my 2 cents

  • Antagonist88

    @cleanslate said...

    At 10.2k I think Krylov is a steal. Yeah, he’s been finished in his 4 losses, but 3 of those were by submission, and his only KO loss was 3 years ago to Soa Palelei, who is currently fighting at HW. Is Herman likely to sub a guy that himself has 13 sub wins? HIGHLY unlikely imo. Krylov should have a big advantage in the grappling department. Can Herman KO him? Sure, that’s possible, but again, very, very unlikely imo.

    Herman has a slow plodding style and is way past his prime. He’s always been solid but never elite. Krylov is a much faster fighter and that speed should play a huge advantage in this fight. They move at paces that are night and day by comparison. I also think Herman was slightly losing the fight to Boetsch before catching him with that clinch knee in the 2nd round, and Boetsch is also a slow, plodding fighter that was at a height disadvantage but was able to pretty easily tag Herman quite a bit in the 1st round despite that.

    Just my 2 cents, this is MMA and anything is possible, but I’m really surprised that Krylov isn’t a way bigger favorite.

    Don’t be fooled into thinking Krylov has significant grappling skills. Most of those are him rocking and pounding on guys who then can’t defend, or really didn’t know how to in the first place. Herman is a much better grappler in this fight and should have a better tank. So I’d say he’s more likely to submit a tired Krylov than KO him, for what its worth.

  • thetitanlb

    My night most likely will be determined by these first two fights. Went Damien brown. I think he is the supreme grappler by far. Cesar to me is trash. He can throw wild strikes but thats it.

  • thetitanlb

    Boom goes the dynomite.

    Cesar has a glass chin. Take a seat

  • bigcrip

    i love when a first round finish happens in fight 1. crystalizes all the sweats for the night

  • thetitanlb

    Oh boy. Graves is gonna get like 0 points. SOB. He is gonna need a 3rd round finish to have any hope of getting over 40 points.

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