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  • gje627

    UFC 230 – Cormier vs Lewis

    Venue/Day/Date: New York City, Madison Square Garden – Saturday, November 3, 2018

    UFC 230 Main Event, 5 round Championship Fight (final fight on Main Card, PPV)

    265 lbs.: UFC Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis

    UFC 230 Main Card, all fights 3 rounds (10 p.m. ET, PPV)

    185 lbs.: Chris Weidman vs. Jacare (Ronaldo) Souza
    185 lbs.: David Branch vs. Jared Cannonier
    185 lbs.: Jack Marshman vs. Karl Roberson
    185 lbs.: Israel Adesanya vs. Derek Brunson

    UFC 230 Prelims, all fights 3 rounds (8 p.m. ET, FS1)

    145 lbs.: Jason Knight vs. Jordan Rinaldi
    125 lbs.: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Sijara Eubanks
    145 lbs.: Julio Arce vs. Sheymon Moraes
    170 lbs.: Ben Saunders vs. Lyman Good

    UFC 230 Prelims, all fights 3 rounds (6 p.m. ET, UFC Fight Pass)

    155 lbs.: Matt Frevola vs. Lando Vannata
    145 lbs.: Shane Burgos vs. Kurt Holobaugh
    135 lbs.: Brian Kelleher vs. Montel Jackson
    265 lbs.: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Adam Wieczorek

    Early Selected No Vigorish Odds

    Fighter DK Salary Fight Win % TKO / KO % Sub % ITD % Rd 1 %
    ———————————- —————— ————- ———— —————- ————- ————- ————-
    Daniel Cormier 9600 A 84.00% 58.35% 41.65% 79.51% 43.35%
    Derrick Lewis 6600 A 16.00% 11.37% 3.34% 12.40% 6.10%
    Chris Weidman 8500 B 63.45% 33.44% 3.75% 34.61% 19.86%
    Jacare Souza 7700 B 36.55% 14.60% 15.63% 25.36% 15.63%
    David Branch 9300 C 76.35% 18.55% 20.96% 40.44% 22.17%
    Jared Cannonier 6900 C 23.65% 12.13% 3.61% 14.05% 7.69%
    Karl Roberson 8700 D 71.47% 31.61% 23.64% 52.03% 31.61%
    Jack Marshman 7500 D 28.53% 12.61% 6.61% 15.79% 8.71%
    Israel Adesanya 9100 E 74.28% 48.10% 7.54% 47.97% 31.15%
    Derek Brunson 7100 E 25.72% 13.35% 6.41% 16.15% 9.10%
    Jason Knight 8800 F 69.80% 27.85% 19.02% 47.15% 25.05%
    Jordan Rinaldi 7400 F 30.20% 8.58% 8.90% 15.03% 8.17%
    Sijara Eubanks 9400 G 82.50% 14.53% 13.31% 23.63% 13.89%
    Roxanne Modafferi 6800 G 17.50% 5.51% 6.57% 9.16% 5.22%
    Julio Arce 9200 H 74.60% 9.54% 25.05% 27.20% 16.32%
    Sheymon Moraes 7000 H 25.40% 7.48% 5.34% 10.34% 6.01%
    Lyman Good 9500 I 84.00% 61.68% 9.10% 66.24% 39.33%
    Ben Saunders 6700 I 16.00% 6.20% 6.71% 10.10% 6.01%
    Lando Vannata 8900 J 70.23% 50.00% 12.93% 52.85% 33.87%
    Matt Frevola 7300 J 29.77% 8.58% 9.24% 15.13% 8.34%
    Shane Burgos 9000 K 73.28% 39.33% 8.75% 45.92% 25.05%
    Kurt Holobaugh 7200 K 26.72% 13.40% 9.36% 18.36% 10.53%
    Montel Jackson 8300 L 55.26% 26.87% 6.01% 31.11% 15.00%
    Brian Kelleher 7900 L 44.74% 10.26% 12.69% 18.36% 10.53%
    Adam Wieczorek 8600 M 66.36% 10.53% 42.48% 50.00% 32.09%
    Marcos Rogerio 7600 M 33.64% 26.87% 14.42% 29.12% 17.95%

    NOTE: The fighter favored to win her/his respective fight is listed first per fight in the table above. Odds above are from 5Dimes and are current as of 11/1/2018, 2:11 p.m. ET. While implied odds are useful, no vigorish odds are more accurate since vigorish (“vig”) is removed from each prospective wager and vig by fight / wager type varies within a card. All percentages indicate the current percentage odds each fighter has to win a fight via a certain outcome (TKO/KO, Submission, Inside the Distance – ITD, and ITD Round 1) as of the date and time previously listed. Since I calculated the numbers above using 5Dimes moneyline odds, any and all errors or omissions are mine and mine only.

  • Trappist1

    Thank you for all the info and share, much appreciated. I skipped last week’s UFC contests, it was not that appealing. UFC 230 looks much better and should be fun.

  • GoldenWolf87

    The odds were wrong for last week fight, noticed how they never given any chance for the the underdog lol and i highly doubt Sijara Eubanks would win at 82%. If anything is give.

    Sijara Eubanks already had beaten Modafferi last time. I believe Modafferi has a 83% chance of beating her rival.

  • someclevername

    Thank you for posting this, gje!

  • ttucowboy84

    I really like the Black Beast mainly because his interviews are gold. However, I cant see him defeating DC. I guess DC could get caught if he doesn’t take the fight seriously, but this seems like a major mismatch on paper.

  • GoldenWolf87

    I will take a risk on Roxanne Modafferi. Sijara Eubanks is to much for my taste on DK.

  • jki7p6

    My god the pricing this week. Upset potential i wont have a piece of: Marshman, Holobaugh, Frevola.
    DC should win on stamina alone but how can you not have Lewis in one at that price. Avoiding this fight mostly anyways.

  • mtdurham

    Well fellas a few years ago I high fived a certain Georges St. Pierre and Bruce Buffer as they walked out of the tunnel at a UFC event. The main card was Dustin Poirier vs the Korean Zombie that evening.

    What does that have to do with anything? It doesn’t .

    But I feel like I’m going to hit this slate. I can feel it. I’m channeling the powers of Bruce.

  • mtdurham

    @ttucowboy84 said...

    I really like the Black Beast mainly because his interviews are gold. However, I cant see him defeating DC. I guess DC could get caught if he doesn’t take the fight seriously, but this seems like a major mismatch on paper.

    He’s also got a pretty hilarious instagram account.

  • gje627

    Sijara Eubanks and Brian Kelleher both missed weight by 2.2. pounds and 2.0 pounds respectively. Both will forfeit 20% of their purse, but the fights will proceed. All remaining fighters made weight. So, at the moment anyways, we still have 13 fights tomorrow.

  • someclevername

    Eubanks needs to move up – she always seems like a disaster trying to make 125. Thought she might die on TUF.

  • GoldenWolf87

    @someclevername said...

    Eubanks needs to move up – she always seems like a disaster trying to make 125. Thought she might die on TUF.

    Eubanks stands no chance of winning then and shes a big risk taker i am going to put more of Roxanne Modafferi as the most experienced fighter and possible for a TKO upset on tomorrow.

    I don’t remember a fighter that had missed weight had won before, maybe some did but rarely.

    And someone with just 4 wins 2 losses yeah no thanks.

  • someclevername

    @GoldenWolf87 said...

    Eubanks stands no chance of winning then and shes a big risk taker i am going to put more of Roxanne Modafferi as the most experienced fighter and possible for a TKO upset on tomorrow.

    I don’t remember a fighter that had missed weight had won before, maybe some did but rarely.

    And someone with just 4 wins 2 losses yeah no thanks.

    I like Roxanne and will be rooting for her but Eubanks already beat her last year during TUF. Found this article from July https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/ufc-fighters-miss-weight-betting-records

    I really do hope Roxy bucks the trend though. She lost to Barb Honchak back in 2011 and then beat her earlier this year so maybe she can avenge her loss to Eubanks also!

  • GoldenWolf87

    @someclevername said...

    I like Roxanne and will be rooting for her but Eubanks already beat her last year during TUF. Found this article from July https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/ufc-fighters-miss-weight-betting-records

    I really do hope Roxy bucks the trend though. She lost to Barb Honchak back in 2011 and then beat her earlier this year so maybe she can avenge her loss to Eubanks also!

    I am rooting for Roxanne to and maybe a TKO win hopefully! i have 32 lineups again xD lets hope something good comes out on Sat.

    I had faded Marshman/Jared Cannonier. I might i might add in Ben Saunders in one of my line ups.

  • scott33

    @someclevername said...

    Eubanks needs to move up – she always seems like a disaster trying to make 125. Thought she might die on TUF.

    And she was complaining about not getting the title shot SMH

  • scott33

    @ttucowboy84 said...

    I really like the Black Beast mainly because his interviews are gold. However, I cant see him defeating DC. I guess DC could get caught if he doesn’t take the fight seriously, but this seems like a major mismatch on paper.

    If Rumble (a more athletic version of BB) couldn’t do it, I doubt BB has much of a chance. I would love to see him land the one hitter quitter though, BB as champ that would be something lol.

  • ttucowboy84

    @scott33 said...

    If Rumble (a more athletic version of BB) couldn’t do it, I doubt BB has much of a chance. I would love to see him land the one hitter quitter though, BB as champ that would be something lol.

    It would be bonkers! I couldn’t help myself and made a few lineups with Lewis. Probably a sign I need to stop drinking and go to bed.

  • jki7p6

    Cannonier’s physique has really changed holy shit. Definitely not the same dude who walked down a blood-transfused Hulk at the end of their fight not giving a shit what he was hit with (completely badass) and the heavyweight slowass I remember before that.
    He’s gone Rocky III wtf

  • scott33

    @jki7p6 said...

    Cannonier’s physique has really changed holy shit. Definitely not the same dude who walked down a blood-transfused Hulk at the end of their fight not giving a shit what he was hit with (completely badass) and the heavyweight slowass I remember before that.
    He’s gone Rocky III wtf

    He does look ripped my goodness. I’ll always be a fan, that fight with Cutelaba (think I spelled that wrong) was one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen bc Ian can crack. Talk about terminator mode. Not sure he has what it takes to beat Branch, he’s gonna have to knock him out.

  • someclevername

    @jki7p6 said...

    He’s gone Rocky III wtf

    lol

  • gje627

    I updated to current the table I posted two days ago in the header to this thread. I also calculated some other basic but interesting metrics based on fight odds….

    I will post some of this information in three separate posts. I mention this because each post may be somewhat lengthy and therefore I’m essentially apologizing in advance for taking up a lot of space in this forum. I may post a few other metrics later in the day before the fights start, but for the most part I will refrain from posting general comments or too much data so as not overwhelm the forum.

    You’ve been warned…. :)

  • gje627

    Post 1 of 3

    NOTE: See thread header for simple methodology. Again, vigorish removed to make odds more accurate. Also, odds are reported as percentages for ease of understanding and comparison.

    If anyone is interested, the vigorish for various wagers on this card range from 1.60% to 9.04%, with the average vigorish being 4.78%.

    The wager odds with the lowest vigorish of 1.60% are Chris Weidman, Ronaldo Souza, Brian Kelleher, or Montel Jackson to win each fighter’s respective fight. The wager odds with the highest vigorish of 9.04% is betting Israel Adesanya to win by TKO/KO. The disparity between the ranges of vigorish also demonstrate why it’s important to remove vig before interpreting fight odds.

    Updated Selected No Vigorish Odds – Current as of 11/3/2018, 12:18 p.m. ET

    Fighter DK Salary Fight Win % TKO/KO % Sub % ITD % Rd 1 %
    ———————————- —————— ————- ————- ————- ————- ————— ————-
    Daniel Cormier 9600 A 84.25% 41.65% 38.60% 77.87% 42.48%
    Derrick Lewis 6600 A 15.75% 14.10% 2.76% 15.15% 8.00%
    Chris Weidman 8500 B 59.83% 31.33% 4.84% 33.49% 18.92%
    Jacare Souza 7700 B 40.17% 15.49% 13.40% 23.63% 15.00%
    David Branch 9300 C 75.13% 18.71% 20.49% 35.18% 20.90%
    Jared Cannonier 6900 C 24.87% 13.13% 4.23% 14.56% 8.17%
    Karl Roberson 8700 D 71.06% 29.83% 25.66% 51.42% 29.01%
    Jack Marshman 7500 D 28.94% 13.69% 7.08% 17.15% 9.54%
    Israel Adesanya 9100 E 71.96% 49.05% 9.10% 44.01% 31.15%
    Derek Brunson 7100 E 28.04% 13.13% 6.64% 16.24% 8.90%
    Jason Knight 8800 F 69.77% 29.09% 21.37% 46.12% 26.87%
    Jordan Rinaldi 7400 F 30.23% 6.66% 8.13% 12.64% 7.00%
    Sijara Eubanks 9400 G 82.53% 14.20% 13.65% 22.73% 13.40%
    Roxanne Modafferi 6800 G 17.47% 5.51% 6.78% 9.16% 5.36%
    Julio Arce 9200 H 68.36% 9.64% 18.47% 25.05% 13.89%
    Sheymon Moraes 7000 H 31.64% 8.67% 6.95% 13.44% 7.54%
    Lyman Good 9500 I 83.15% 63.79% 8.34% 69.35% 41.65%
    Ben Saunders 6700 I 16.85% 5.95% 8.13% 11.59% 6.52%
    Lando Vannata 8900 J 70.64% 40.85% 17.76% 46.94% 35.60%
    Matt Frevola 7300 J 29.36% 9.87% 7.54% 14.79% 8.17%
    Shane Burgos 9000 K 74.50% 36.21% 10.53% 43.10% 25.05%
    Kurt Holobaugh 7200 K 25.50% 15.63% 7.26% 19.12% 11.12%
    Montel Jackson 8300 L 59.83% 19.67% 6.64% 23.00% 13.40%
    Brian Kelleher 7900 L 40.17% 10.16% 12.40% 18.15% 10.53%
    Adam Wieczorek 8600 M 66.27% 11.98% 43.35% 51.01% 31.15%
    Marcos Rogerio 7600 M 33.73% 21.59% 11.98% 28.95% 17.95%
  • gje627

    Post 2 of 3

    NOTE: Same as previous table only this time all odds for fighters are ranked. All ranks highest to lowest (largest to smallest for salary). I’m including this as it’s sometimes easier to apply to lineups when only simple ranks are reported. I report salary because comparing salary to other ranks is a simple way to find value among/between fighters.

    Selected No Vigorish Odds Ranks – Current as of 11/3/2018, 12:18 p.m. ET

    Fighter DK Salary Fight Rank Salary Rank Win % Rank TKO/KO % Rank Sub % Rank ITD % Rank Rd 1 %
    ———————————- —————- ———— ———- ———— ———— ———— ———- ————
    Daniel Cormier 9600 A 1 1 3 2 1 1
    Derrick Lewis 6600 A 26 26 15 26 20 22
    Chris Weidman 8500 B 12 12 6 24 10 10
    Jacare Souza 7700 B 15 14 13 9 13 12
    David Branch 9300 C 4 4 11 5 9 9
    Jared Cannonier 6900 C 23 23 17 25 22 20
    Karl Roberson 8700 D 10 7 7 3 3 6
    Jack Marshman 7500 D 17 20 16 19 18 18
    Israel Adesanya 9100 E 6 6 2 13 7 4
    Derek Brunson 7100 E 21 21 17 22 19 19
    Jason Knight 8800 F 9 9 8 4 6 7
    Jordan Rinaldi 7400 F 18 18 24 15 24 24
    Sijara Eubanks 9400 G 3 3 14 8 15 14
    Roxanne Modafferi 6800 G 24 24 26 21 26 26
    Julio Arce 9200 H 5 10 22 6 12 13
    Sheymon Moraes 7000 H 22 17 23 20 23 23
    Lyman Good 9500 I 2 2 1 14 2 2
    Ben Saunders 6700 I 25 25 25 15 25 25
    Lando Vannata 8900 J 8 8 4 7 5 3
    Matt Frevola 7300 J 19 19 21 17 21 20
    Shane Burgos 9000 K 7 5 5 12 8 8
    Kurt Holobaugh 7200 K 20 22 12 18 16 16
    Montel Jackson 8300 L 13 12 10 22 14 14
    Brian Kelleher 7900 L 14 14 20 10 17 17
    Adam Wieczorek 8600 M 11 11 19 1 4 4
    Marcos Rogerio 7600 M 16 16 9 11 11 11
  • someclevername

    Do I take De Lima and watch while he inexplicably gets caught in an omoplata or do I fade this fight and watch as he starches Wieczorek in the 1st round with 2 knockdowns? Decisions, decisions.

    *Whoops, sorry gje – didn’t refresh the page and interrupted your flow lol my bad. Also I wouldn’t worry about taking up “too much room” in this forum – your information is always extremely appreciated & helpful!

  • gje627

    Post 3 of 3

    NOTE: The two tables below may be helpful in identifying the best fights to target tonight particularly in your GPP lineups. The tables below use the addition rule of probability for mutually exclusive events to calculate the expected probability that a fight ends via any one of the outcomes specified in the latter columns. In no way are the tables below intended to recommend stacking fighters in the same fight; instead for some people it may be used to make certain you include a fighter from some of the expected higher performing fights in your lineups. Like previous posts, the first table displays actual percentages and the second table displays the rankings for these percentages from highest to lowest.

    Selected No Vigorish Fight Odds – Current as of 11/3/2018, 12:18 p.m. ET

    Fight Rounds TKO/KO % Sub % ITD % Rd 1 %
    ——————————— ———— ———— ———— ———— ————
    Adesanya/Brunson 3 62.18% 15.74% 60.24% 40.05%
    Arce/Moraes 3 18.31% 25.42% 38.49% 21.43%
    Branch/Cannonier 3 31.84% 24.71% 49.74% 29.06%
    Burgos/Holobaugh 3 51.84% 17.79% 62.22% 36.17%
    Cormier/Lewis 5 55.75% 41.36% 93.02% 50.48%
    Eubanks/Modafferi 3 19.71% 20.43% 31.89% 18.76%
    Frevola/Vannata 3 50.72% 25.30% 61.73% 43.77%
    Good/Saunders 3 69.74% 16.47% 80.94% 48.17%
    Jackson/Kelleher 3 29.83% 19.04% 41.15% 23.93%
    Knight/Rinaldi 3 35.75% 29.51% 58.76% 33.86%
    Marshman/Roberson 3 43.52% 32.73% 68.57% 38.54%
    Rogerio/Wieczorek 3 33.58% 55.33% 79.97% 49.09%
    Souza/Weidman 3 46.83% 18.24% 57.12% 33.91%

    Selected No Vigorish Fight Odds Ranks – Current as of 11/3/2018, 12:18 p.m. ET

    Fight Rounds Rank TKO/KO % Rank Sub % Rank ITD % Rank Rd 1 %
    ————————————- ———— —————- ———- ———— ————
    Adesanya/Brunson 3 2 13 7 5
    Arce/Moraes 3 13 5 12 12
    Branch/Cannonier 3 10 7 10 10
    Burgos/Holobaugh 3 4 11 5 7
    Cormier/Lewis 5 3 2 1 1
    Eubanks/Modafferi 3 12 8 13 13
    Frevola/Vannata 3 5 6 6 4
    Good/Saunders 3 1 12 2 3
    Jackson/Kelleher 3 11 9 11 11
    Knight/Rinaldi 3 8 4 8 9
    Marshman/Roberson 3 7 3 4 6
    Rogerio/Wieczorek 3 9 1 3 2
    Souza/Weidman 3 6 10 9 8

    END

  • GoldenWolf87

    Still the laughable odds are favoring Sijara Eubanks? lol lol whatever we shall see. Sijara Eubanks is the third fighter i wont be adding in my lineup. Just because shes a favorite doesn’t mean squat. She doesn’t have a lot of experience. Honestly i like the underdog Banks is facing alot more. Roxy also is coming off a TKO win and has advantages over Eubanks in height.

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