MAIN FORUM

Comments

  • someclevername

    Saturday 12.29.18 – The Forum – Inglewood, CA

    PPV Main Card – 9pm CST

    Jon Jones (204) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (204.5) – LHW title fight
    Cris Cyborg © (144) vs. Amanda Nunes (145) – Women’s FW title fight
    Michael Chiesa (170.5) vs. Carlos Condit (171)
    Corey Anderson (204.5) vs. Ilir Latifi (205.5)
    Chad Mendes (146) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (145)

    FS1 Prelims – 7pm CST

    Andrei Arlovski (245.5) vs. Walt Harris (258.5)
    Megan Anderson (146) vs. Cat Zingano (144)
    Douglas Silva de Andrade (134.5) vs. Petr Yan (135.5)
    Ryan Hall (154) vs. B.J. Penn (156)

    Fight Pass Prelims – 5:15pm CST

    Andre Ewell (135.5) vs. Nathaniel Wood (135.5)
    Uriah Hall (185.5) vs. Bevon Lewis (186)
    Siyar Bahadurzada (171) vs. Curtis Millender (170)
    Montel Jackson (137)* vs. Brian Kelleher (135)

    *Jackson missed weight and forfeits 20 percent of his show money to Kelleher

  • gje627

    Great fight card to end the year !!!

    Fight of the night…

    Ewell/Wood?
    Andrade/Yan?
    Mendes/Volkanovski?
    Anderson/Latifi?
    Other?

    Two possible championship fight upsets?

    The coming out party for Bevon Lewis?

    BJ Penn’s last hurrah against the world’s goofiest fighter?

    Super-excited for tomorrow !!!

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    Super-excited for tomorrow !!!

  • someclevername

    I might get crazy and do two lineups…possibly three – WATCH OUT lol. Whatever I end up with, I will be 100% Bones.

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    I might get crazy and do two lineups…possibly three – WATCH OUT lol. Whatever I end up with, I will be 100% Bones.

    Probably around 30% for me…. But of course I max-enter the GPPs.

  • callmetouch

    @someclevername said...

    I might get crazy and do two lineups…possibly three – WATCH OUT lol. Whatever I end up with, I will be 100% Bones.

    make it 5 :D 1 with Gus

  • joephoto

    I won 9- $10 entries to MMA tomorrow.

    Not gonna buy PayPerView though.
    Everybody seems to be rooting for Amanda Nunes.
    I guess I will also.

  • mlrfo4

    Thoughts on Condit and Volkanovski? Based on odds, I like there price

  • GoldenWolf87

    @mlrfo4 said...

    Thoughts on Condit and Volkanovski? Based on odds, I like there price

    He will likely be the UFC 232 Lima for sure. Some should add Condit just to be sure.

  • callmetouch

    I don’t like Zingano here. Ya’ll looking for 5+ takedowns but i see Anderson defending and tagging Cat on the feet

  • callmetouch

    Also i have Cyborg on nearly all lineups but Nunes is a tough cookie. I might even favor Nunes cardio _

  • scott33

    Gus gonna shock the world, knock out the juiceless Jones (kinda) in the 4th.

  • Neilj907

    Juiceless????

  • mtdurham

    @Neilj907 said...

    Juiceless????

    he said “kinda”

  • pastabolicles

    @gje627 said...

    Probably around 30% for me…. But of course I max-enter the GPPs.

    Really, only 30% on your entries with Jones? He’s been a lock for 90+ points it seems. I was leaning towards the both of them.. This whole card has got me twisted. I don’t know what’s going to happen in any of these fights. Who’s the one guy you think is locked for a big day, Gje?

  • pastabolicles

    @GoldenWolf87 said...

    He will likely be the UFC 232 Lima for sure. Some should add Condit just to be sure.

    Man, I love Carlos so much, I hope so. But it’s kind of an insult to call him the Lima.,. and that said, I don’t love the match-up at all. Condit is obviously struggling against anyone with a strong ground game. Chiesa is just another guy who’s going to get it to the ground if he has to and then cinch up some sort of lock on Carlos.. I don’t know why they aren’t giving the NBK a stand up fighter. Nobody wants to watch him on his back.

  • gje627

    @pastabolicles said...

    Really, only 30% on your entries with Jones?

    In my mind I meant to type in 50%, not the 30% I previously stated….

    Sorry about that.

    Regarding other fighters or a “must-play”, with the exception of BJ Penn I pretty much like everyone on this card in one way or another. I just started working on the numbers and this will take several hours. I’ll try and post most of my numbers later, probably around 12 noon MT. I’ll also post my actual lineup exposure percentages sometime after that; probably an hour or two before lock.

  • ttucowboy84

    • 495

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #65

      RG Tiered Ranking

    If Condit wins, I’ll be up shit creek without a paddle. Chiesa is my highest owned guy at 18/24. Hoping Chiesa gets him to the ground and dominates from there.

    My gut says Gus and Nunes are winning tonight. With that said, I have exposure to both sides in every lineup.

    12/24 – Gus
    12/24 – Bones

    14/24 – Nunes
    10/24 – Cyborg

    Good luck everyone! Should be a fun night of fights to end the year.

  • gje627

    @ttucowboy84 said...

    If Condit wins, I’ll be up shit creek without a paddle. Chiesa is my highest owned guy at 18/24. Hoping Chiesa gets him to the ground and dominates from there.

    My gut says Gus and Nunes are winning tonight. With that said, I have exposure to both sides in every lineup.

    12/24 – Gus
    12/24 – Bones

    14/24 – Nunes
    10/24 – Cyborg

    Good luck everyone! Should be a fun night of fights to end the year.

    Not sure exactly where I’ll be at on Condit/Chiesa, but overall I absolutely agree with the approach you are taking with your lineups.

    Good Luck !!

  • jki7p6

    100% Cyborg / Mendes
    Feel good about Yan / Cat / Ryan Hall winning but have returns vs price reservations about each
    Like Harris / Lewis but there is one shot risk there.
    Instinct says Chiesa because ground but have an itch that wont go away on this one.
    Instinct says Jackson but have an itch in this one too which got worse after failed cut.
    Having problems reading the Latifi / Millender / Ewell fights though you can see who i am leaning towards.
    Jones should win.

    • I only seem to cash when i dont post about the card on the forum and this time i went all out so first sub 100 score ever incoming.
      You have been warned.
  • ttucowboy84

    • 495

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #65

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @gje627 said...

    Not sure exactly where I’ll be at on Condit/Chiesa, but overall I absolutely agree with the approach you are taking with your lineups.

    Good Luck !!

    Thanks, gl to you too!

  • gje627

    FYI: If anyone is interested in a few of my numbers….

    Below, please find my rankings for the best fights to target in lineups tonight. Roughly speaking, the both ITD (Inside the Distance) rankings correspond to fights to target in GPPs and the Total FPts Rank corresponds to fights to target in Cash games. With that said, I personally use a combination of all numbers for targeting the best GPP fights (I don’t play Cash). Please note, the rankings below are based both on no vigorish odds (better than implied odds) calculated using current odds from 5Dimes and my personal point projections. Importantly, the rankings below are not based on a single fighter’s expected performance in a match, but instead the likelihood that one of the two fighters in each specific fight finish inside the distance and/or with significant fantasy points. Thus, I do NOT recommend using two fighters from the same fight in the same lineup.

    UFC 232, Jones vs Gustafsson 2 – Fights to Target, GPP and Cash (sorted by ITD% rank)

    Fight ITD % Rank ITD Rd1 % Rank Total FPts Rank
    ———————————————- ————————— ————————— ————————-
    Ewell/Wood 1 1 8
    Cyborg/Nunes 2 9 1
    Chiesa/Condit 3 4 11
    Hall/Lewis 3 3 7
    Arlovski/Harris 5 5 10
    Bahadurzada/Millender 6 2 6
    Gustafsson/Jones 7 13 2
    Mendes/Volkanovski 8 6 3
    Anderson/Latifi 9 7 5
    Silva de Andrade/Yan 10 8 4
    Hall/Penn 11 10 13
    Jackson/Kelleher 11 11 9
    Anderson/Zingano 13 12 12

    Tables 2 and 3 below are no vigorish odds expressed as percentages per fighter for various fight outcomes tonight. The no vigorish odds were calculated using 5Dimes fight and prop odds as of 10:15 am MT, 12/29/2018. There are two difference between tables 2 and 3. The first is that actual no vigorish odds are listed in Table 1 and rankings are listed in Table 2. I included the second table primarily because rank orders are often easier to read, and digest at a glance, than percentages. The second difference is that in Table 2 I also included rank orders for my points projections (and no, I did not include my actual projections here, sorry). For those not familiar with the difference between implied odds and no vigorish odds please see a previous post of mine from a previous fight (can’t remember which fight) or simply google “difference between implied odds and no vigorish odds”. Suffice to say, I never use implied odds as no vigorish odds are far superior.

    UFC 232, Jones vs Gustafsson 2 – No Vigorish Odds (sorted by fight with favorite to win appearing first)

    Name Salary Match Win % TKO/KO % Sub % ITD % ITD Rd1 %
    ———————— ————- ———— ———— ————— ———— ————- —————-
    J Jones 9100 A 71.96% 24.46% 22.55% 43.46% 15.63%
    A Gustafsson 7100 A 28.04% 12.29% 5.15% 14.24% 5.92%
    C Cyborg 9200 B 68.84% 41.65% 7.69% 44.38% 16.32%
    A Nunes 7000 B 31.16% 12.74% 10.82% 18.75% 8.34%
    M Chiesa 9000 C 58.17% 8.34% 27.85% 29.28% 17.09%
    C Condit 7200 C 41.83% 19.67% 12.46% 27.68% 15.63%
    I Latifi 8900 D 56.19% 29.41% 13.22% 38.22% 22.17%
    C Anderson 7300 D 43.81% 8.34% 5.66% 11.59% 6.52%
    C Mendes 8700 E 56.93% 25.41% 9.77% 31.58% 17.95%
    A Volkanovski 7500 E 43.07% 14.60% 7.26% 18.15% 10.01%
    W Harris 8600 F 61.87% 46.94% 4.84% 48.99% 31.15%
    A Arlovski 7600 F 38.13% 12.03% 9.14% 17.27% 10.26%
    C Zingano 8500 G 58.17% 16.93% 12.61% 26.52% 14.42%
    M Anderson 7700 G 41.83% 15.37% 5.66% 16.74% 9.54%
    P Yan 9300 H 73.16% 27.85% 10.06% 34.61% 19.86%
    DS de Andrade 6900 H 26.84% 9.32% 4.51% 11.80% 6.52%
    R Hall 9400 I 79.57% 11.12% 20.90% 27.68% 16.32%
    B Penn 6800 I 20.43% 6.95% 8.56% 13.34% 7.54%
    N Wood 8200 J 53.39% 20.49% 14.60% 30.74% 17.09%
    A Ewell 8000 J 46.61% 19.67% 13.91% 29.12% 16.32%
    B Lewis 7900 K 53.39% 22.79% 5.51% 25.36% 14.42%
    U Hall 8300 K 46.61% 32.09% 6.10% 34.76% 19.86%
    C Millender 8800 L 57.30% 23.64% 7.78% 28.25% 16.32%
    S Bahadurzada 7400 L 42.70% 18.16% 13.99% 27.68% 16.32%
    M Jackson 8400 M 59.51% 20.90% 8.27% 24.46% 13.89%
    B Kelleher 7800 M 40.49% 10.59% 12.69% 18.54% 10.82%


    UFC 232, Jones vs Gustafsson 2 – No Vigorish Odds & DK Projected Fantasy Points Rankings (sorted by fight with favorite to win appearing first)

    Name Salary Match Win % RK TKO/KO % RK Sub % RK ITD % RK ITD Rd1 % RK Total FPts RK
    ———————— ———- ——— ——— ———— ——— ———- ————- ————-
    J Jones 9100 A 3 7 2 3 13 3
    A Gustafsson 7100 A 24 19 24 23 26 2
    C Cyborg 9200 B 4 2 18 2 8 1
    A Nunes 7000 B 23 18 11 18 22 4
    M Chiesa 9000 C 7 24 1 9 6 20
    C Condit 7200 C 19 12 10 12 13 21
    I Latifi 8900 D 11 4 7 4 2 13
    C Anderson 7300 D 16 24 21 26 24 7
    C Mendes 8700 E 10 6 13 7 5 8
    A Volkanovski 7500 E 17 17 19 20 20 6
    W Harris 8600 F 5 1 25 1 1 14
    A Arlovski 7600 F 22 20 14 21 19 22
    C Zingano 8500 G 7 15 9 15 15 19
    M Anderson 7700 G 19 16 21 22 21 25
    P Yan 9300 H 2 5 12 6 3 5
    DS de Andrade 6900 H 25 23 26 25 24 16
    R Hall 9400 I 1 21 3 12 8 26
    B Penn 6800 I 26 26 15 24 23 24
    N Wood 8200 J 12 11 4 8 6 17
    A Ewell 8000 J 14 12 6 10 8 15
    B Lewis 7900 K 12 9 23 16 15 11
    U Hall 8300 K 14 3 20 5 3 18
    C Millender 8800 L 9 8 17 11 8 9
    S Bahadurzada 7400 L 18 14 5 12 8 10
    M Jackson 8400 M 6 10 16 17 17 23
    B Kelleher 7800 M 21 22 8 19 18 12

    EDIT: Sorry about the crappy looking tables….

  • callmetouch

    Good chance we see you Gje at the top tonight :D Hope to come with you

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    EDIT: Sorry about the crappy looking tables….

    You really should be sorry for these crappy looking tables chock full of free information… lol ;) Thank you for posting these, gje – always appreciated!

  • someclevername

    @callmetouch said...

    make it 5 :D 1 with Gus

    Oh sh*t, 5! I have 2 and that’s plenty for me lol.

  • someclevername

    Cyborg is actually cheaper than normal, I like it – she & Bones are just automatic for me. I know that $7k price on Nunes is so nice but I feel strongly that she’s going to get murdered via murder.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Sites mentioned in this thread

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

Subforum Index

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting?

If you have access to New Jersey sports betting, then use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code and our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get the best bonuses in the NJ industry.

Those who can take advantage of PA online sports betting should use our SugarHouse PA promo code to get the best sports betting bonus in Pennsylvania.

If you don't yet have access to an online sportsbook, check out Monkey Knife Fight, a prop betting platform available in 31 states. Use our Monkey Knife Fight promo code to get a fantastic bonus.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Disclosures: All RotoGrinders content contributors are active DFS players. Contributor screen names can be found on their respective RotoGrinders profile pages. Contributors reserve the right to use players or strategies not discussed in their content on RotoGrinders.