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  • someclevername

    Saturday 12.29.18 – The Forum – Inglewood, CA

    PPV Main Card – 9pm CST

    Jon Jones (204) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (204.5) – LHW title fight
    Cris Cyborg © (144) vs. Amanda Nunes (145) – Women’s FW title fight
    Michael Chiesa (170.5) vs. Carlos Condit (171)
    Corey Anderson (204.5) vs. Ilir Latifi (205.5)
    Chad Mendes (146) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (145)

    FS1 Prelims – 7pm CST

    Andrei Arlovski (245.5) vs. Walt Harris (258.5)
    Megan Anderson (146) vs. Cat Zingano (144)
    Douglas Silva de Andrade (134.5) vs. Petr Yan (135.5)
    Ryan Hall (154) vs. B.J. Penn (156)

    Fight Pass Prelims – 5:15pm CST

    Andre Ewell (135.5) vs. Nathaniel Wood (135.5)
    Uriah Hall (185.5) vs. Bevon Lewis (186)
    Siyar Bahadurzada (171) vs. Curtis Millender (170)
    Montel Jackson (137)* vs. Brian Kelleher (135)

    *Jackson missed weight and forfeits 20 percent of his show money to Kelleher

  • gje627

    @callmetouch said...

    Good chance we see you Gje at the top tonight :D Hope to come with you

    Thanks !!!

    Though I’m having a helluva time figuring out lineups for tonight so I worry that my “strictly numbers” approach tonight may not be optimal….

    Meaning, some of the many smart fight minds here (like you, somclevername, ttucowboy84, and pretty much everyone else here besides me) likely have a much better chance of winning big tonight than I do….

    With that said, I would be super happy if everyone here split all the money tonight !!!

  • mtdurham

    When you come off steroids it can do all sorts of crap to your hormones they are completely out of whack.

    Not to mention steroids increase your strength, power, stamina, nervous system (reaction time), and confidence levels. Not to mention the way they lower your bodyfat to absurd levels so you can essentially hang on to more muscle at your weight class.

    The size and wrestling ability will still be there but those are literally the two things Gustaffson can match better than anyone in the world.

    Coupled with the ring rust I just think this is great time to be on Gustaffson if you’re playing that fight. He can win and he’s cheap as crap. At the very least you’re likely to get 5 rounds out of him and keep you alive to cash at that price.

    I like fading Jones for sure. His price is brutal, Gustaffson is well equipped to go the distance, he can stuff Jones takedowns as well as anyone, and he’s far from a lock to win at only -300/+230 line last i saw. Usually in teh 9k’s you can get much better odds than that.

    If this was a 3 round fight I’d want precisely ZERO exposure to Jon Jones and prob 30-40% or so Gustaffson….

    5 rounds is really all this fight has going for it if you’re taking Jon Jones IMO. I also think he’ll be chalk. So there’s that.

    Now can someone tell me about this Ryan Hall character? Why is he only averaging 50 FPS ? Looks like his two fights have been pretty ghastly.

    Penn is washed up but he’s still BJ Penn… you aren’t going to come in and just completely annihilate him if you cant avg but 30 Sig Strikes and 0.5 takedowns per fight…

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    murdered via murder

    Ouch !!!

    Being murdered via murder has got to the worst way to die….

    That…

    Or sitting through an entire Conor McGregor press conference !!! :)

  • someclevername

    @mtdurham said...

    When you come off steroids it can do all sorts of crap to your hormones they are completely out of whack.

    When did he come off? lol

  • callmetouch

    @someclevername said...

    Cyborg is actually cheaper than normal, I like it – she & Bones are just automatic for me. I know that $7k price on Nunes is so nice but I feel strongly that she’s going to get murdered via murder.

    Jones/Cyborg will be locks for many many people including myself. Good chance both win but what if 1 loses or even worse both lose. It will be chaos.

  • GoldenWolf87

    @callmetouch said...

    Good chance we see you Gje at the top tonight :D Hope to come with you

    Same here :D

  • callmetouch

    @mtdurham said...

    When you come off steroids it can do all sorts of crap to your hormones they are completely out of whack.

    Not to mention steroids increase your strength, power, stamina, nervous system (reaction time), and confidence levels. Not to mention the way they lower your bodyfat to absurd levels so you can essentially hang on to more muscle at your weight class.

    The size and wrestling ability will still be there but those are literally the two things Gustaffson can match better than anyone in the world.

    Coupled with the ring rust I just think this is great time to be on Gustaffson if you’re playing that fight. He can win and he’s cheap as crap. At the very least you’re likely to get 5 rounds out of him and keep you alive to cash at that price.

    I like fading Jones for sure. His price is brutal, Gustaffson is well equipped to go the distance, he can stuff Jones takedowns as well as anyone, and he’s far from a lock to win at only -300/+230 line last i saw. Usually in teh 9k’s you can get much better odds than that.

    If this was a 3 round fight I’d want precisely ZERO exposure to Jon Jones and prob 30-40% or so Gustaffson….

    5 rounds is really all this fight has going for it if you’re taking Jon Jones IMO. I also think he’ll be chalk. So there’s that.

    Now can someone tell me about this Ryan Hall character? Why is he only averaging 50 FPS ? Looks like his two fights have been pretty ghastly.

    Penn is washed up but he’s still BJ Penn… you aren’t going to come in and just completely annihilate him if you cant avg but 30 Sig Strikes and 0.5 takedowns per fight…

    Hall is a jiu jiutsu black belt. Known for his triangles. I believe he won’t finish penn but make it a grappling match. I think he knows he can finish penn if he wants but will give penn a grappling fight out of respect. Who knows though

  • mtdurham

    This picture is from a few months ago… make sure you scroll all the way to the bottom so you can see what he looks like…. obviously he will be bigger then this when he steps in the ring, and being at low bodyfat makes you look more muscular (particularly for people with dark color skin, this is why white people have to tan so heavily for bodybuilding contests)

    I mean just ask yourself if this is going to be the same guy post-steroids…

    I mean dont get me wrong, he’s still Jon Jones and capable of knocking out anyone. But Gustaffson is literally the only guy in the world id feel comfortable taking at +250 vs Jon Jones.

    If Jones wins it wont help you much at his price/ownership. If Gustaffson wins it will.

    Do yourself a favor. Look at the picture. Guys dont stay on top forever and this is a man with serious substance abuse problem who has mostly relied on his size/athleticism/reach/wrestling background/steroids to dominate the sport. Ask yourself which of those are a major advantage in this matchup?

    http://viralpatient.com/shocking-pics-of-steroid-free-jon-jones-surface-his-muscles-are-gone/

  • gje627

    @callmetouch said...

    Jones/Cyborg will be locks for many many people including myself. Good chance both win but what if 1 loses or even worse both lose. It will be chaos.

    All my lineups will include one of the following:

    Jones/Cyborg
    Jones/Nunes
    Gus/Cyborg

    Meaning….

    I will have two fighters, one each, from both of the five-round championship fights in all my lineups tonight in all combinations except for Gus/Nunes.

    I imagine this will be a popular play for us MME players….

  • mtdurham

    @callmetouch said...

    Hall is a jiu jiutsu black belt. Known for his triangles. I believe he won’t finish penn but make it a grappling match. I think he knows he can finish penn if he wants but will give penn a grappling fight out of respect. Who knows though

    hmm… kinda sounds like a fade to me… Penn in his day had pretty unreal takedown defense even standing on one leg…. and his flexibility and guard is legendary… this sounds like a fight that even if say the guy finishes him in the 3rd round if he dosent have but 30 strikes, 1 takedown, etc he kills your lineup…

    I’m not a fan of betting on tiny men to score KO’s and TKO’s… i had him in my original lineup but i think i will move off him due to your synopsis.

  • gje627

    @callmetouch said...

    Hall is a jiu jiutsu black belt. Known for his triangles. I believe he won’t finish penn but make it a grappling match. I think he knows he can finish penn if he wants but will give penn a grappling fight out of respect. Who knows though

    Absolutely agree.

  • gje627

    @mtdurham said...

    Now can someone tell me about this Ryan Hall character? Why is he only averaging 50 FPS ? Looks like his two fights have been pretty ghastly.

    Actually, Ryan Hall is kind of a fun fighter, though as I said in the first post in this forum, likely the goofiest MMA fighter in the world.

    Essentially, his strategy is to go to the center of the ring, lay down and invite his opponent to the ground with him…. Given his exceedingly strong jiu-jitsu skills and his propensity for aiming for the heel-hook or leg lock no smart opponent dares follow him to the ground….

    Standing though, he doesn’t punch….

    BUT

    He has amazing leg kicks, particularly leg kicks to the head…..

    Overall, I love watching him.

    His fights generally frustrate the hell out of his opponents though…..

    And as goofy as he fights, his post-fight interviews are even goofier !!!

  • mtdurham

    My main concern with Jon Jones is the judges… UFC is under a fairly crushing level of debt service and they’ve been in quite a bind with Jon Jones being out, Rousey’s flame out, and Conor McGregor’s relucatance to fight…

    They need the star power and it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that they’d fix the fight.

    After all, the current group controlling the UFC bought the company with money they made from years of fixing international fights…

  • realphipps

    Ive tried to figure out how Nunes wins this fight. I see no angle to victory for her whatsoever.

    I keep hearing she’ll have the cardio/stamina advantage. 15 months ago, Nunes looked absolutely dead after 10-12 mins versus Valentina.

  • someclevername

    @callmetouch said...

    Jones/Cyborg will be locks for many many people including myself. Good chance both win but what if 1 loses or even worse both lose. It will be chaos.

    I agree they will be chalk but rightfully so – you still have to nail the other 4 fighters. That is just my opinion – I mean sure Gus could beat Jones and/or Nunes could land something, she does have power. I just don’t think it’s going to happen and if it does I’ll lose lol it will not be the first time. I am WAY more concerned with the other choices I have to make lol.

    I think a lot of people will take Gus & Nunes, they are cheap af and both quality fighters. Chaos will ensue if BJ Penn KO’s Ryan Hall in the 1st round lol.

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    Chaos will ensue if BJ Penn KO’s Ryan Hall in the 1st round lol.

    Ryan Hall’s fights are notoriously low-scoring due to his fight style. I would be shocked if old-man Penn has more than a couple of significant strikes in each round. Also, without a submission (or leg-kick KO) Hall will be extremely low-scoring too….

    IMHO, this is the fight to avoid most, though if something out-of-the-ordinary happens and one of these guys scores big, the few contestants who roster either of these fighters are likely in line for big money tonight…..

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    Ryan Hall’s fights are notoriously low-scoring due to his fight style. I would be shocked if old-man Penn has more than a couple of significant strikes in each round. Also, without a submission (or leg-kick KO) Hall will be extremely low-scoring too….

    IMHO, this is the fight that to avoid most, though if something out-of-the-ordinary happens and one of these guys scores big, the few contestants who roster either of these fighters are likely in line for big money tonight…..

    Oh, I agree completely – this fight is an absolute fade for me.

  • mnstone14

    whats the thought on walt harris tonight… viable cash play?

  • someclevername

    Bahadurzada is a trap at $7400 isn’t he

  • GoldenWolf87

    @someclevername said...

    Bahadurzada is a trap at $7400 isn’t he

    For me Chad vs Lima was a trap if only i had placed for the UFC 231 I wont be making the same mistakes again.

  • someclevername

    @GoldenWolf87 said...

    For me Chad vs Lima was a trap if only i had placed for the UFC 231 I wont be making the same mistakes again.

    lol yeah that Lima win was something else

  • callmetouch

    inb4 ryan hall gets 20 advances 30 sweeps and gets 347.5 points

  • Neilj907

    I got 12 lines going 100% Jones/cyborg will this thing start already…

  • callmetouch

    @Neilj907 said...

    I got 12 lines going 100% Jones/cyborg will this thing start already…

    im 17/35 lineups done editing. Jones/Cyborg in all so far

  • gje627

    @callmetouch said...

    inb4 ryan hall gets 20 advances 30 sweeps and gets 347.5 points

    Yep….

    And I’m getting in the Octagon with Khabib…..

    And wasting his ass !!! :)

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