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  • someclevername

    Saturday 4.13.19 – State Farm Arena – Atlanta, GA

    PPV Main Card – 9pm CST

    Max Holloway (155) vs. Dustin Poirier (154.5) – for interim LW title
    Kelvin Gastelum (184) vs. Israel Adesanya (183) – for interim MW title
    Eryk Anders (205) vs. Khalil Rountree (206)
    Dwight Grant (171) vs. Alan Jouban (171)
    Nikita Krylov (205) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (206)

    ESPN Prelims – 7pm CST

    Matt Frevola (156) vs. Jalin Turner (156)
    Alexandre Pantoja (125.5) vs. Wilson Reis (126)
    Max Griffin (170.5) vs. Zelim Imadaev (171)
    Boston Salmon (135.5) vs. Khalid Taha (136)

    Fight Pass Early Prelims – 5:15pm CST

    Curtis Millender (170.5) vs. Belal Muhammad (171)
    Montel Jackson (136) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (136)
    Poliana Botelho (125) vs. Lauren Mueller (126)
    Randy Costa (135) vs. Brandon Davis (136)

  • thevogaman

    Thinking Holloway, Krylov/OSP winner, and Anders/Roundtree winner will be on the optimal. I think I’ll be (almost) all in on those fights.

    And probably have too much of Kelvin, but I think he wins early by taking one to give one.

    Less than 10% of Salmon, Taha, Muhammad, Millender, Mueller, Jouban.

  • callmetouch

    @thevogaman said...

    Thinking Holloway, Krylov/OSP winner, and Anders/Roundtree winner will be on the optimal. I think I’ll be (almost) all in on those fights.

    And probably have too much of Kelvin, but I think he wins early by taking one to give one.

    Less than 10% of Salmon, Taha, Muhammad, Millender, Mueller, Jouban.

    It sounds this easy. Oh it always sounds so easy.

  • thevogaman

    Oh yeah, believe me… I know.

    Anybody feeling any strong game theory type plays? Who is this weeks Desmond Green? Maybe Botelho or Montel ?

    Feel like this is a really tough GPP card.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @thevogaman said...

    Oh yeah, believe me… I know.

    Anybody feeling any strong game theory type plays? Who is this weeks Desmond Green? Maybe Botelho or Montel ?

    Feel like this is a really tough GPP card.

    My quick thoughts Montel is this week’s Desmond, although not to that extent, and I don’t think his price tag is worth it. I feel having main event is mandatory, and there’s a chance both together are in the winning lu. If it’s a 5 round war with hundreds of significant strikes thrown, I could see Poirier losing and get close to 100pts and he’s only 7k. You probably need Jalen turner fight in the lu because I don’t see it going the distance, likewise I don’t think OSP fight goes the distance. Gastelum has value since he only wins by finishing adesanya imo. Roundtree needs early KO or he’s bust, anders kinda sucks but should win if he survives initial onslaught. Don’t know if he’s a good play though pts-wise.

  • thevogaman

    Yeah, I’ve been stacking the main event in GPPs more than I should probably in all my initial builds. Been very heavy on Dwight Grant and Jaylin Turner… because of the likelihood of a finish…. and they’ll probably both go to dec.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, I’ve been stacking the main event in GPPs more than I should probably in all my initial builds. Been very heavy on Dwight Grant and Jaylin Turner… because of the likelihood of a finish…. and they’ll probably both go to dec.

    Jouban has a glass jaw so I like grant KO. If it goes to decision prob jouban takes it since grant is pretty low output counterstriker style and jouban’s offense is more varied. I’d bet the house on turner fight not going to decision, but turner is also a glass jaw and probably susceptible on the ground possibly get subbed. I’m going single bullet and have to take a stand so I went with turner and grant personally.

  • someclevername

    I have clowned on a few fighters w/potato fight IQ – none more than, His Royal Highness, Andre Soukhamthath – but, to be fair, I possess DFS MMA fight picking potato IQ. I saw Andre’s name on the card and it instantly reminded me of when I was on him for the O’Malley fight and how salty I still apparently am. A case can be made that it’s worse to make terrible picks with no pressure and plenty of time vs making a boneheaded decision or decisionS in the cage w/someone trying to legally murder you. That puts me in a bad light and Andre in an ok light so let’s move on…

    Max vs Dustin – Max is a beast, this is known, but Dustin is being criminally undervalued, per the betting line. Yes, I was on him when MJ KO’d him – not great but MJ is one of those Jekyll/Hyde type of fighters. One fight he looks like the 2nd coming and the next looks disinterested and like shit. Dustin caught him on a 2nd coming night. Won’t hold that against him. Max isn’t a 1-hitter-quitter type fighter, he’s a pressure, volume fighter. And he’s damn good but DP has fought a (better?) pressure, volume fighter in Gaethje and won. Look, can Max win? Of course he can. But DP can too and, bonus, he has a better ground game – I don’t think it’s gonna go there, but if it does Dustin’s better. His price on DK is absurd.

    Izzy vs Gas – oh boy no shortage of opinions on this one. Idk much – I’ve said this, you know this – but over the course of a 5 round fight, I’ll side with the guy who has shown a great chin and does possess KO power. That would be Kelvin. Can Izzy stay on the outside and piece him up with his 3 feet reach advantage? You bet he can. Every fight comes down to what you think is going to happen – you have to make stands. Really, if you believe in Izzy your only question is can he pay off his tag. Even if he wins I’m not sold he can score enough for $9200. Maybe he will, who knows.

    Anders/Rountree – oh G. Consensus is Khalil early, Anders late. Shockingly, I favor Khalil for the KO but would it surprise me if YAAA BOIII got a 1st round KO instead? No, it wouldn’t. GL

    Grant/Jouban – Jouban is a chinny action fighter and Grant is a low volume counterstriker w/Power. Jouban is the better technical fighter, but he’s also in that 37 year old range that I love so much. And coming off a layoff. DK wise I’d say Grant or bust but, again, idk shit.

    Krylov vs OSPLOL CRAPSHOOT GL

    Frevola vs Turner – Frevola isn’t as fragile as you might think and Turner might be more fragile than you think. Another crapshoot though – GL

    Pantoja vs Reis – I give shit to older fighters and Wilson is like 33 – which in flyweight terms is basically 40. I’m passing on this fight but it could turn out to be a pointfest w/tds & scrambles galore. Pantoja is better on the feet but Reis will shoot and Pantoja doesn’t possess great tdd. Again I’m passing, so it’s most likely this one is a slate breaker. Choose wisely.

    Griffin vs Imadaev – Just like another fight below, Griffin is experienced but not great and Imadaev could be great or a can crusher. I’ll be passing on this one but very curious to see what Imadaev brings to the table.

    Salmon vs Taha – Much, much smarter people than I say Salmon’s boxing is legit, which is great, but he’s not yet shown a killer instinct or other “DFS friendly” traits and Taha is a tough mofo – I fear this goes to a low scoring decision. Again – possible slate breaker.

    Millender vs Belal – lol, full disclosure, I picked Curtis against Zaleski. SO DUMB. I told you I have potato fight picking IQ. Millender has no ground game, we all saw it. If Belal can get him down, he may not submit him but maybe he can control him. Idk. I don’t think I’ve ever taken Belal but this should be his fight to lose, right? I picked Neal against him and JC Belal stayed upright through some powerful shots (to my dismay). Neal also displayed exceptional tdd – we know Millender doesn’t have this. I trust Belal’s chin to weather through enough to get him a td or 3 and either pull off a sub or win him a decision.

    Montel Jackson vs Soukhamthah – oh, Andre. He’s not high volume enough – or he hasn’t shown to be – to win a decision and he’s not smart enough inside the cage to capitalize on a painfully obvious opportunity to win. Montel looks legit. I am not bothered by the price cos I have a ridiculous lineup leaving oodles on the table but if you have a tighter salary construct I can see not wanting to pay the $9400. Or hell, maybe Andre starches him – nothing shocks me anymore.

    Botelho vs Mueller – they both lost as favorites last time out. Mueller as a much bigger one. And she got submitted by a white belt. I have no belts to speak of, but that sounds bad. Botelho at least got ran over by Calvillo, who appears to be a legit top talent. Wu Yanan (Mueller’s loss) could be a world beater for all I know but…I doubt it. Another pass for me, another possible slate breaker.

    Costa vs Davis – ok, like referenced above, Costa is a can crusher and Davis, while meh, is a tough, experienced fighter. I’d feel better taking Davis – he lost his last fight but it was against Zabit for crying out loud. Idk know a lot about Costa so maybe I’m missing out and maybe he’s special but I think Davis takes a decision.

    TL;DR – your picks are prob better than mine and GL

  • someclevername

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Jouban has a glass jaw so I like grant KO. If it goes to decision prob jouban takes it since grant is pretty low output counterstriker style and jouban’s offense is more varied. I’d bet the house on turner fight not going to decision, but turner is also a glass jaw and probably susceptible on the ground possibly get subbed. I’m going single bullet and have to take a stand so I went with turner and grant personally.

    Great points here – I didn’t see them before posting my novel but feel good I echo what you wrote – maybe I’m not as terrible as I think lol. GL

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @someclevername said...

    Great points here – I didn’t see them before posting my novel but feel good I echo what you wrote – maybe I’m not as terrible as I think lol. GL

    Yeah seems like we’re on the same page this card. Gl bro

  • jolokia

    This will be my first ever live UFC fight! Such a stacked card (and no withdraws! fingers crossed still)

    I wasn’t going to make a lineup but all my golfers made the cut so what the hell, Masters + Irish pub + UFC all night! can’t fucking wait. Any tips are appreciated!

    Call me crazy but I like too many underdogs on this card. Leave 2k on the table and/or multiple parlays with the bookie and win!

    Poirer via 300 total sig strike bloody split (controversial) decision.
    Kelvin 3rd rd power shot that Izzie’s never felt before.
    OSP via von preux choke (it’s HIS choke now)
    Anders/Roundtree – flip a coin. Then flip another coin for decision/KO.

    Muhammed and Turner are probably the only favs I like, but on this card nothing is certain.

    Good luck everyone!

  • someclevername

    @jolokia said...

    I wasn’t going to make a lineup but all my golfers made the cut

    Oh, you son a bitch lol – j/k… sort of. I had Rose & Casey MC. The easiest cut in golf, that’s not a no cut event, and my 2 highest priced & “safest” guys MC. Oh well, them’s the risks. GL w/your Masters entry and enjoy the live fights!

  • callmetouch

    To be the best you got to beat the best and the best is blessed

  • Dfspacman

    Dustin might pull an upset

  • callmetouch

    It’s hard not to target the 8000/8200/8300/7900 fights. More than likely 1 or more will be in the GPP lineup.

  • someclevername

    I didn’t play Till but I picked him – KTFO. Same for WB – KTFO. Played Barboza – KTFO. I’m sorry, Dustin!

  • jki7p6

    Costa/Davis fotn

    Costa takes it to Rob Font when he trains with him locally. Well-rounded. Nickname = Zohan
    All the Costa.

  • jki7p6

    My favorite lineup has 2700 left over. Weird card to bet on.

  • callmetouch

    @jki7p6 said...

    Costa/Davis fotn

    Costa takes it to Rob Font when he trains with him locally. Well-rounded. Nickname = Zohan
    All the Costa.

    Costa/Davis fade lol

  • jki7p6

    @callmetouch said...

    Costa/Davis fade lol

  • callmetouch

    GOODLUCK ALL. Scramble with my lineups.

  • Neilj907

    No ownerships yet?

  • callmetouch

    @Neilj907 said...

    No ownerships yet?

    DK delaying recently. Should be up and running any minute

  • callmetouch

    Fun fight. Davis should take over late here.

  • callmetouch

    93 for Davis i believe
    *87.5 for $8700 is pretty spot on

  • callmetouch

    Costa was super low owned

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