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  • someclevername

    Saturday 7.6.19 – T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas, NV

    PPV Main Card – 9pm CST

    Jon Jones © (205) vs. Thiago Santos (204.5) – LHW Title Fight
    Amanda Nunes © (135) vs. Holly Holm (133.5) – Women’s BW Title Fight
    Ben Askren (171) vs. Jorge Masvidal (170.5)
    Jan Blachowicz (205.5) vs. Luke Rockhold (204.5)
    Michael Chiesa (170.5) vs. Diego Sanchez (169)

    ESPN Prelims – 7pm CST

    Arnold Allen (145.5) vs. Gilbert Melendez (145.5)
    Nohelin Hernandez (136) vs. Marlon Vera (136)
    Claudia Gadelha (115) vs. Randa Markos (116)
    Alejandro Perez (135.5) vs. Song Yadong (135.5)

    Fight Pass/ESPN+ Early Prelims – 5:15pm CST

    Jack Marshman (185) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (185)
    Ismail Naurdiev (171) vs. Chance Rencountre (170.5)
    Julia Avila (135) vs. Pannie Kianzad (135)

  • someclevername

    Since salaries are already out (thanks touch!) figured I’d go ahead and post it. I know there should be two more fights added – when DK has them I’ll update.

  • someclevername

    Julia Avila vs Pannie Kianzad officially added.

  • thevogaman

    I think Gilbert Melendez is getting disrespected here. What’s Arnold Allen’s advantage other than youth (maybe cardio)? I’m all in (well, I’ll be way over the field) on the Giblert.

    Conversely, I think Diego Sanchez is going to be relatively highly owned and Chiesa is going to knock him out with the first punch he lands.

  • jki7p6

    @thevogaman said...

    I think Gilbert Melendez is getting disrespected here. What’s Arnold Allen’s advantage other than youth (maybe cardio)? I’m all in (well, I’ll be way over the field) on the Giblert.

    Conversely, I think Diego Sanchez is going to be relatively highly owned and Chiesa is going to knock him out with the first punch he lands.

    Agree with most of this except for Chiesa ko, expecting a decision win.
    Melendez pricing really jumps out.

    Waiting on the Chito fight addition for pricing, Hernandez can scrap.
    Not touching Askren in this card, even though he should win a decision. Expecting a lay n pray point output.
    Perez/Yadong tops for FOTN?

  • thevogaman

    @jki7p6 said...

    Waiting on the Chito fight addition for pricing, Hernandez can scrap.

    Could we get Chito at 8.9k? No line yet… ugh. I was hoping they would just cancel the fight to be honest. Now I have to tape Hernandez.

    On Perez/Yadong… I don’t know. I’m thinking it will be the opposite… closer to Perez/Alcantara. Yadong chasing him the whole fight and Perez avoiding. That’s what I’m hoping for… cause I want to fade both of them honestly.

  • gje627

    On DK, it’s either Vera 8900, Hernandez 7300 or Vera 9500, Hernadez 6700 as there are no other options.

    Hernandez is supposedly a promising up-and-comer (see Journey Newson last weekend?) and he was already in camp for another fight (albeit on the regional circuit) so maybe this won’t be “extreme” short notice for him. As such, I’m assuming it’s 8900/7300, but who knows.

    Notwithstanding all the hype, overall seems like a pretty sh*tty card and hardly worth PPV.

    I feel like the Jones/Santos fight will be a repeat of Jones/Smith, with Santos unable to do anything and Jones toying with him and winning in boring, but convincing fashion whenever he decides to exert himself offensively (3rd round sub or ground-and-pound TKO/KO?).

    Nunes/Holm could be fun, even though the Preacher’s Daughter will likely get destroyed sooner rather later, she should be game until the end since she refuses to ever give-up.

    Ben Askren … meh.
    Gilbert Melendez … meh.
    Diego Sanchez … meh.
    Gadelha/Markos … might be fun in a weird sort of way.

    Regarding all the extreme odds on this card, sadly they all seem about right.

  • thevogaman

    I’m kind of wondering if Rencountre is live here. I think the win over Prazeres is getting overrated a bit.

    Prazeres is so slow and he gasses so quickly… and also is like 5’4. And while Tractor is a great grappler, I think Rencountre is a better wrestler and is actually quite a bit bigger than Naurdiev.
    This fight reminds me of Hadzovic/Giagos from last month, where wrestling could prevail.

    Dont get me wrong, Naurdiev should be a big favorite to win but I dont think he finishes Rencountre … and I think -450 is way off when in his last fight against Prazeres it was Prazeres who closed -400 himself.

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    I’m kind of wondering if Rencountre is live here. I think the win over Prazeres is getting overrated a bit.

    Prazeres is so slow and he gasses so quickly… and also is like 5’4. And while Tractor is a great grappler, I think Rencountre is a better wrestler and is actually quite a bit bigger than Naurdiev.
    This fight reminds me of Hadzovic/Giagos from last month, where wrestling could prevail.

    Dont get me wrong, Naurdiev should be a big favorite to win but I dont think he finishes Rencountre … and I think -450 is way off when in his last fight against Prazeres it was Prazeres who closed -400 himself.

    Nice, I think your spot-on in your analysis of Naurdiev/Rencountre.

    Shocking that at -500 implied odds (not actual odds) to win for Naurdiev, his implied ITD is only +135. Actually think his ITD odds are closer to reality than his win odds. Regardless, I agree he is easily justified as the favorite.

    Rencountre is yet another fighter on this card I really can’t stand.

    Probably just me, but I hate this card.

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    Report – John Lineker released by the UFC

    Dude’s a fun, action fighter … always goes for the finish. I thought that’s what Dana wanted.

    I get it though… pulls out of fights, missed weight a ton trying to get to 125 in the day.

    It also makes me think of the card he pulled out of against Font. I’d bet a lot of people went down from Font to McCann and/or Randy Brown that week and lucked into cashing.

  • gje627

    @gje627 said...

    On DK, it’s either Vera 8900, Hernandez 7300 or Vera 9500, Hernadez 6700 as there are no other options.

    Hernandez is supposedly a promising up-and-comer (see Journey Newson last weekend?) and he was already in camp for another fight (albeit on the regional circuit) so maybe this won’t be “extreme” short notice for him. As such, I’m assuming it’s 8900/7300, but who knows.

    My two options were correct but my guess was wrong …. Of course my options weren’t rocket science since salary totals per fight always equal 16200, and DK will never roster fighters with the same salaries, and the increments are always 100 when no fights are cancelled.

    Anyways, DK went with:

    Vera: 9500
    Hernandez: 6700

    Think this is a little high for Vera; but then again 8900 was probably too low. Based on salary construction and inevitable fight cancellations/replacement fighters, DK seems to box itself in a corner when it releases salaries for fight cards too early.

  • gje627

    Ran all possible UFC 239 lineups. Below are some completely useless (but slightly … very slightly) interesting “fun facts” !!!

    100,256 total possible lineups at/below the $50,000 salary threshold

    42,391 total possible lineups at/below the $50,000 salary threshold that do not include more than one (1) fighter from the same fight (i.e./e.g., where Jones can’t fight Santos)

    0 total possible lineups at/below the $50,000 salary threshold that include six (6) favorites (i.e. entire lineup is composed entirely of fight favorites)

    15 total possible lineups at/below the $50,000 salary threshold that include five (5) favorites and only one (1) underdog. Something obvious is that none of these 15 lineups include two (2) fighters from the same fight… DUHH !!! …. actually, it is possible for both fighters in a fight to have negative moneyline odds (co-favorites).

    1,983 total possible lineups at/below the $50,000 salary threshold equal to exactly $50,000 in total salary. Of these, exactly 800 lineups do not include two (2) fighters from the same fight.

    EDIT redundant/repeated.

    94,230 total possible lineups at/below the $50,000 salary threshold where a minimum of $45,000 in salary is used. Of these, 38,356 lineups do not include two (2) fighters from the same fight.

    48,794 total possible lineups at/below the $50,000 salary threshold where a minimum of $48,000 in salary is used. Of these, 18,782 lineups do not include two (2) fighters from the same fight.

    24,274 total possible lineups at/below the $50,000 salary threshold where a minimum of $49,000 in salary is used. Of these, 9,583 lineups do not include two (2) fighters from the same fight.

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    Think this is a little high for Vera; but then again 8900 was probably too low. Based on salary construction and inevitable fight cancellations/replacement fighters, DK seems to box itself in a corner when it releases salaries for fight cards too early.

    $8.9k would’ve made Vera a great play, that’s for sure. If you look at current odds, he fits right in there below Nunes and Allen who are both at like -350 right now. 9.5k is pretty hefty and going to be a tough one to swallow with Jones and Shahbazyan right there.

  • ttucowboy84

    • 375

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #49

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Wow, huge large field lotto plus gje is back posting. Win win!

    I’m only doing 3 lineups but Santos will be in all 3. I’m done with Bones and it’ll be a nice leverage play as I expect him to be popular. Might as well swing for the fences on a card like this.

  • gje627

    @ttucowboy84 said...

    Wow, huge large field lotto plus gje is back posting. Win win!

    Thanks for the nice welcome-back !!!

    I’m truly touched !!! :)

  • gje627

    WARNING: Large,unmanageable, and nonsensical tables ahead (accompanied by painful, long-winded blather) … Please proceed with EXTREME CAUTION.

  • gje627

    FYI: For those just starting their research, the tables below may be of some interest. The two tables below are the Actual/True Win% Odds (Implied Odds – Vigorish) from the various sportsbooks consolidated at/by BestFightOdds.

    Importantly, these percentage odds are current as of 2:46 pm MT, and therefore subject to change, even substantial change.

    For the few not familiar with vigorish please see note at the end of this post, I have tried to explain it in abbreviated, yet understandable fashion. If my explanation doesn’t make sense, please just say reply to the post and I’m sure that someone smarter than me can be provide a more sensible explanation.

    In advance, I apologize for the formatting of the tables. Trying to fit too many columns in a textile table given the narrow columns of the forums can be a struggle. Thus, if you’re ACTUALLY interested in the tables but can not see all columns simply zoom-out and eventually all columns should become visible. Also note, given these width limitations in the first column of the first table I only include a fighter’s last name and the letter following the slash simply denotes the fighter’s particular matchup where “A” is the last fight of the night on the main card and “L” is the first fight on the Fight Pass prelims.

    EDIT: First table has 13 columns. On my computer, if I zoom out to 67% all columns are visible.

    Finally, if you want to copy the tables into your own spreadsheet, simply highlight the entire table and paste, or paste-special, values to remove formatting (or the equivalent in a non-Excel spreadsheet program) and the tables will retain column and row separations.

    —-

    UFC 239 | True Win Odds expressed as Percentages(%), Various Sportsbooks
    Name / Fight 5Dimes BetDSI BMkr SBet Bet365 Bovada Sbook Will.H. Pinn. SInt. BetOn. Intrtps
    ———————— ————- ————- ————- ————- ————- ————- ————- ————- ————- ————- ————- ————-
    Jones/A 84.12% 82.14% 84.62% 83.98% 82.58% 81.98% 83.42% 82.83% 82.55% 80.28% 82.50% 81.98%
    Santos/A 15.88% 17.86% 15.38% 16.02% 17.42% 18.02% 16.58% 17.17% 17.45% 19.72% 17.50% 18.02%
    Nunes/B 78.22% 77.44% 77.06% 77.94% 76.19% 77.66% 77.06% 76.19% 77.92% 73.20% 78.19% 77.46%
    Holm/B 21.78% 22.56% 22.94% 22.06% 23.81% 22.34% 22.94% 23.81% 22.08% 26.80% 21.81% 22.54%
    Askren/C 66.27% 64.92% 65.71% 66.09% 66.58% 65.56% 65.97% 67.44% 65.30% 61.61% 65.48% 64.99%
    Masvidal/C 33.73% 35.08% 34.29% 33.91% 33.42% 34.44% 34.03% 32.56% 34.70% 38.39% 34.52% 35.01%
    Blachowicz/D 32.14% 32.86% 32.04% 32.31% 33.42% 32.82% 32.44% 34.38% 32.62% 32.94% 31.11% 34.29%
    Rockhold/D 67.86% 67.14% 67.96% 67.69% 66.58% 67.18% 67.56% 65.62% 67.38% 67.06% 68.89% 65.71%
    Sanchez/E 23.71% 24.10% 25.36% 23.91% 23.81% 25.36% 24.81% 27.09% 24.66% 29.01% 23.33% 26.20%
    Chiesa/E 76.29% 75.90% 74.64% 76.09% 76.19% 74.64% 75.19% 72.91% 75.34% 70.99% 76.67% 73.80%
    Allen/F 74.50% 74.85% 74.64% 74.29% 74.55% 73.56% 75.19% 73.62% 74.02% 70.76% 73.48% 73.13%
    Melendez/F 25.50% 25.15% 25.36% 25.71% 25.45% 26.44% 24.81% 26.38% 25.98% 29.24% 26.52% 26.87%
    Vera/G 78.45% NA 76.37% 78.24% 76.19% 77.66% NA 78.95% 78.31% NA 77.96% 77.46%
    Hernandez/G 21.55% NA 23.63% 21.76% 23.81% 22.34% NA 21.05% 21.69% NA 22.04% 22.54%
    Gadelha/H 67.35% 66.19% 66.04% 67.17% 68.18% 67.82% 68.18% 67.44% 66.72% 65.45% 67.28% 66.40%
    Markos/H 32.65% 33.81% 33.96% 32.83% 31.82% 32.18% 31.82% 32.56% 33.28% 34.55% 32.72% 33.60%
    Perez/I 35.69% 36.03% 35.78% 35.53% 34.83% 35.96% 35.35% 32.56% 35.99% 35.28% 35.71% 35.01%
    Song/I 64.31% 63.97% 64.22% 64.47% 65.17% 64.04% 64.65% 67.44% 64.01% 64.72% 64.29% 64.99%
    Shahbazyan/J 83.15% 82.24% 82.12% 82.98% 82.58% 81.08% 82.66% 81.04% 82.07% 80.29% 82.50% 81.62%
    Marshman/J 16.85% 17.76% 17.88% 17.02% 17.42% 18.92% 17.34% 18.96% 17.93% 19.71% 17.50% 18.38%
    Rencountre/K 17.79% 17.21% 19.76% 17.93% 19.09% 20.69% 19.12% 20.00% 17.76% 20.69% 18.52% 20.09%
    Naurdiev/K 82.21% 82.79% 80.24% 82.07% 80.91% 79.31% 80.88% 80.00% 82.24% 79.31% 81.48% 79.91%
    Avila/L 64.31% 64.30% 63.41% 64.47% 64.29% 64.04% 65.97% 65.62% 64.26% 67.06% 64.89% 63.41%
    Kianzad/L 35.69% 35.70% 36.59% 35.53% 35.71% 35.96% 34.03% 34.38% 35.74% 32.94% 35.11% 36.59%

    Source: BestFightOdds

    UFC 239 | Summary of True Win Odds expressed as Percentages(%), Various Sportsbooks
    Name Fight Low Odds High Odds Median Odds Mean Odds
    ————————————- ——————— ——————— ——————— ——————— ———————
    Jon Jones A 80.28% 84.62% 82.57% 82.75%
    Thiago Santos A 15.38% 19.72% 17.43% 17.25%
    Amanda Nunes B 73.20% 78.22% 77.45% 77.04%
    Holly Holm B 21.78% 26.80% 22.55% 22.96%
    Ben Askren C 61.61% 67.44% 65.64% 65.49%
    Jorge Masvidal C 32.56% 38.39% 34.36% 34.51%
    Jan Blachowicz D 31.11% 34.38% 32.72% 32.78%
    Luke Rockhold D 65.62% 68.89% 67.28% 67.22%
    Diego Sanchez E 23.33% 29.01% 24.74% 25.11%
    Michael Chiesa E 70.99% 76.67% 75.26% 74.89%
    Arnold Allen F 70.76% 75.19% 74.16% 73.88%
    Gilbert Melendez F 24.81% 29.24% 25.84% 26.12%
    Marlon Vera G 76.19% 78.95% 77.96% 77.73%
    Nohelin Hernandez G 21.05% 23.81% 22.04% 22.27%
    Claudia Gadelha H 65.45% 68.18% 67.23% 67.02%
    Randa Markos H 31.82% 34.55% 32.77% 32.98%
    Alejandro Perez I 32.56% 36.03% 35.61% 35.31%
    Yadong Song I 63.97% 67.44% 64.39% 64.69%
    Edmen Shahbazyan J 80.29% 83.15% 82.18% 82.03%
    Jack Marshman J 16.85% 19.71% 17.82% 17.97%
    Chance Rencountre K 17.21% 20.69% 19.10% 19.05%
    Ismail Naurdiev K 79.31% 82.79% 80.90% 80.95%
    Julia Avila L 63.41% 67.06% 64.30% 64.67%
    Pannie Kianzad L 32.94% 36.59% 35.70% 35.33%

    —-

    Source: BestFightOdds

    —-

    NOTE: Per above, while both tables above should be self-explanatory, for the 1% of those who read this not familiar with sportsbook odds, each possible moneyline, decimal, etc. wager includes vigorish (or vig), which essentially is the fee paid to the sportsbook above and beyond the true odds. Since the vig is an add-on to the wager, the betting lines set by a sportsbook, and moved by sportsbook in response to action made by bettors, is not a fighter’s true betting odds but instead their implied odds. For UFC fights, depending on the wager type, the vig built-in to the sportsbooks’ odds generally ranges from 2% to 8% of an entire wager. In this regard, for example, not all -150 moneyline odds are equal odds (i.e. for true/actual odds of -150, -150/+110 and -150/+210 are not equal.

  • gje627

    Last post today….

    In the morning when more wagers have been placed and the fights draw nearer and more sharps have weighed-in, I’ll post some updated (and more interesting) Sportsbook numbers regarding not only win%, but ITD, Sub, TKO/KO, Rd1, etc. true percentages per each fighter, and fight expectations as a whole. I’ll also post some scoring expectations based on historical data. Like the previous, please feel more than free to disregard what I post tomorrow.

  • GoldenWolf87

    lol the oddmarkers are harsh on Santos arent they?
    I will problary two or four or three lineups as well as this contest is pricey and tricky.

  • thevogaman

    @GoldenWolf87 said...

    lol the oddmarkers are harsh on Santos arent they?

    I think Santos will have some advantages that none of the experts want to give credit for. I was going to type a long thing about Santos being faster and a better athlete and stuff, but I think at the very least a play worth looking at is being under the field on Jon Jones. If Jones only scores in the 90s, you just passed half the field.

    I wonder who will have the higher ownership: Jones or Rockhold?

  • callmetouch

    If there’s one guy that will ruin your lineups it would be Rockhold…..I’m only making 2 lineups and I will be damned if I have Luke in both

  • gje627

    UFC 239 | True Fight Outcome Odds expressed as Percentages(%), 5Dimes
    Match Fight Decison Draw Starts Rd 2 Starts Rd 3 Starts Rd 4 Starts Rd 5
    ————————————— ———- —————— —————- —————— —————— —————— ——————
    Jones / Santos A 25.36% 1.09% 71.05% 51.01% 37.17% 31.11%
    Nunes / Holm B 45.92% 1.09% 77.56% 64.82% 55.99% 50.00%
    Askren / Masvidal C 60.92% 1.31% 79.91% 67.44%
    Blachowicz / Rockhold D 35.96% 1.23% 64.82% 46.94%
    Sanchez /Chiesa E 39.82% 1.23% 66.40% 48.99%
    Allen / Melendez F 66.40% 1.31% 82.73% 73.12%
    Vera / Hernandez G 32.56% 1.15% 65.09% 45.14%
    Gadelha / Markos H 73.68% 1.50% 86.24% 78.22%
    Perez / Song I 62.34% 1.40% 79.83% 69.07%
    Shahbazyan / Marshman J 39.08% 1.09% 63.22% 48.38%
    Rencountre / Naurdiev K 51.01% 1.23% 72.70% 59.08%
    Avila / Kianzad L 60.18% 1.31% 78.54% 66.83%

    —-

    Source: 5Dimes as presented by BestFightOdds
    Note: Numbers current as of 5:51 am MT.

    Forthcoming soon, various fighter updated odds. Later this morning fighter scoring numbers.

  • gje627

    Legend

    Win% True Win odds.
    TKO% True TKO or KO odds.
    Sub% True Submission odds.
    ITD% True Inside the Distance odds; including winning by TKO, KO, Submission, DQ.
    Rd1% True Inside the Distance, Round 1 odds by any mean included in ITD% explanation.
    Rd2% see previous.
    Rd3% see previous.
    Rd4% see previous.
    Rd5% see previous.

    —-

    UFC 239 | True Fighter Outcome Odds expressed as Percentages(%), 5Dimes
    Name Win% TKO% Sub% ITD% Rd1% Rd2% Rd3% Rd4% Rd5%
    ——————————- ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ————
    Jon Jones 84.37% 32.58% 34.70% 64.48% 25.05% 19.86% 14.76% 10.26% 7.13%
    Thiago Santos 15.63% 13.89% 3.61% 14.91% 7.40% 5.66% 3.90% 3.06% 2.34%
    Amanda Nunes 77.70% 33.87% 16.71% 50.00% 20.90% 15.00% 10.53% 7.40% 5.09%
    Holly Holm 22.30% 8.86% 3.55% 10.61% 4.37% 3.86% 3.37% 2.80% 2.29%
    Ben Askren 65.52% 7.87% 11.98% 16.35% 9.32% 7.13% 4.84%
    Jorge Masvidal 34.48% 20.90% 8.41% 25.99% 15.00% 11.43% 7.00%
    Jan Blachowicz 31.64% 16.46% 6.87% 17.44% 9.77% 8.00% 5.29%
    Luke Rockhold 68.36% 27.35% 24.75% 48.99% 29.01% 17.09% 10.01%
    Diego Sanchez 23.38% 6.43% 6.59% 10.44% 6.01% 5.09% 3.90%
    Michael Chiesa 76.62% 32.58% 23.11% 52.03% 31.15% 17.95% 10.26%
    Arnold Allen 74.82% 19.23% 8.71% 24.64% 14.42% 10.53% 6.87%
    Gilbert Melendez 25.18% 7.05% 6.87% 11.86% 6.52% 5.51% 4.10%
    Marlon Vera 78.45% 30.43% 30.26% 63.22% 31.15% 20.90% 11.76%
    Nohelin Hernandez 21.55% 9.77% 5.05% 12.43% 6.87% 5.66% 4.18%
    Claudia Gadelha 68.36% 9.02% 13.59% 18.44% 10.82% 8.71% 5.09%
    Randa Markos 31.64% 4.84% 7.97% 10.61% 6.10% 5.09% 3.86%
    Alejandro Perez 33.73% 6.41% 6.65% 9.60% 5.66% 4.78% 3.61%
    Yadong Song 66.27% 20.77% 14.53% 30.93% 17.95% 12.13% 8.00%
    Edmen Shahbazyan 83.15% 41.65% 17.59% 53.88% 32.58% 17.09% 10.26%
    Jack Marshman 16.85% 10.01% 4.23% 11.57% 6.52% 5.36% 3.90%
    Chance Rencountre 17.97% 5.43% 6.90% 9.57% 5.59% 4.78% 3.65%
    Ismail Naurdiev 82.03% 34.70% 11.43% 42.07% 25.05% 15.00% 9.32%
    Julia Avila 64.31% 26.52% 10.01% 33.07% 18.92% 12.95% 8.00%
    Pannie Kianzad 35.69% 6.14% 6.57% 9.74% 5.75% 4.84% 3.65%

    —-

    Source: 5Dimes as presented by BestFightOdds
    Note: Numbers current as of 5:51 am MT.

    Later this morning fighter scoring numbers.

  • hautalak

    Damn making lineups now and it’s really difficult! Good luck getting 6 right tonight!!!

  • GoldenWolf87

    @callmetouch said...

    If there’s one guy that will ruin your lineups it would be Rockhold…..I’m only making 2 lineups and I will be damned if I have Luke in both

    That is why i have underdogs and only good favs in my lineups of course the dogs that i think could win.

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