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  • someclevername

    Saturday 7.27.19 – Rogers Place – Edmonton, Alberta, CA

    PPV Main Card – 9pm CST

    Max Holloway © (145) vs Frankie Edgar (145) – FW Title Fight
    Cris Cyborg (146) vs Felicia Spencer (145)
    Geoff Neal (170.5) vs Niko Price (169)
    Olivier Aubin-Mercier (155.5) vs Arman Tsarukyan (155)
    Krzysztof Jotko (185.5) vs Marc-André Barriault (184.5)

    ESPN Prelims – 7pm CST

    Alexis Davis (125) vs Viviane Araújo (125)
    Hakeem Dawodu (146) vs Yoshinori Horie (145.5)
    Gavin Tucker (145) vs Seungwoo Choi (145)
    Alexandre Pantoja (125.5) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (126)

    Fight Pass/ESPN+ Early Prelims – 6pm CST

    Gillian Robertson (125) vs Sarah Frota (125)
    Erik Koch (170.5) vs Kyle Stewart (170.5)

    Boser vs Lemos fight has been cancelled

  • someclevername

    I have Stewart in my lineup right now and it feels really grimy. It felt just as grimy when I had Koch there earlier. Thanks to yo dude who popped so that this fight is now the 1st fight which decreases my chances greatly of getting it right no matter who I pick.

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    I have Stewart in my lineup right now and it feels really grimy. It felt just as grimy when I had Koch there earlier. Thanks to yo dude who popped so that this fight is now the 1st fight which decreases my chances greatly of getting it right no matter who I pick.

    Neither Stewart at $8200 or Koch at $8000 excite me that much; though if I had to choose one it would be Koch, primarily for the upside. Personally, in order for even less salary I like Frota ($7600), Choi ($7800), and Figueiredo ($7900) much more than either Stewart or Koch.

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    Neither Stewart at $8200 or Koch at $8000 excite me that much

    Yeah, neither of them are sexy picks – I just think it ends in a finish. I have been wrong* plenty though lol so who knows. Koch is definitely live for that sub – he looked good at weigh in and Stewart’s tdd leaves a whole lot to be desired for sure.

    *Like when I thought Rockwell was going to KO AA and AA then proceeded to put up more points than he had in a decade.

  • someclevername

    And like 15 mins ago when I typed “Rockwell” instead of “Rothwell”.

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    Yeah, neither of them are sexy picks – I just think it ends in a finish. I have been wrong* plenty though lol so who knows. Koch is definitely live for that sub – he looked good at weigh in and Stewart’s tdd leaves a whole lot to be desired for sure.

    *Like when I thought Rockwell was going to KO AA and AA then proceeded to put up more points than he had in a decade.

    FWIW:

    Actual Odds = Implied Odds – Vig

    UFC 240 – Actual (No Vig) 5Dimes Odds Various Fight Outcomes Expressed as Percentages

    Match Rounds ITD Classical% ITD Bayes% TKO% Sub% Rd1%
    ————————————- ————- ————————— ——————— —————- ————- ————
    Edgar/Holloway 5 56.90% 59.49% 52.23% 12.51% 24.09%
    Cyborg/Spencer 3 82.39% 85.91% 70.65% 21.40% 59.66%
    Neal/Price 3 77.27% 80.24% 72.25% 14.00% 47.74%
    Aubin-Mercier/Tsarukyan 3 32.56% 36.26% 25.44% 22.15% 20.53%
    Barriault/Jotko 3 44.94% 47.27% 38.84% 23.27% 27.82%
    Araujo/Davis 3 39.08% 41.90% 33.08% 19.91% 23.23%
    Dawodu/Horie 3 59.40% 62.88% 57.24% 13.49% 37.72%
    Choi/Tucker 3 39.08% 42.75% 35.20% 14.87% 24.34%
    Figueiredo/Pantoja 3 39.82% 42.94% 35.45% 18.10% 24.77%
    Frota/Robertson 3 64.04% 67.23% 27.75% 41.32% 37.80%
    Koch/Stewart 3 52.03% 55.14% 39.53% 25.79% 31.51%

  • futoo

    odds really changed for oam . thoughts on figueroda,jotko,frota?

  • callmetouch

    @futoo said...

    odds really changed for oam . thoughts on figueroda,jotko,frota?

    Fig/Pant is a good fight to target especially with their prices but Panty has such high volume as Fig just funds those powerful bursts. It’ll go to decision for all we know. I picked Barriault against Sanchez last time and he looked really good. Tough dude I’m probably going to lock him in but don’t listen to me I’ve been terrible lately. I’m in on Frota too even though we all know roberston is live for that sub

  • ttucowboy84

    Here’s my random Friday night thoughts:

    Did Nunes break Cyborg? I don’t think so. I do have one Spencer though just in case.

    Does Edgar have any chance against Holloway? I don’t think so. I do have one Edgar though just in case.

    Neal/Niko? Yes please

    Dawodu/Horie? Yes please

    Favorite dog? OAM

    Good luck everyone!

  • ttucowboy84

    @callmetouch said...

    Fig/Pant is a good fight to target especially with their prices but Panty has such high volume as Fig just funds those powerful bursts. It’ll go to decision for all we know. I picked Barriault against Sanchez last time and he looked really good. Tough dude I’m probably going to lock him in but don’t listen to me I’ve been terrible lately. I’m in on Frota too even though we all know roberston is live for that sub

    Fig/Pant is definitely a good fight to target imo. I’m rolling with 6 lineups for the card. Should be fun.

  • Kevin

    @ttucowboy84 said...

    Here’s my random Friday night thoughts:

    Did Nunes break Cyborg? I don’t think so. I do have one Spencer though just in case.

    Does Edgar have any chance against Holloway? I don’t think so. I do have one Edgar though just in case.

    Neal/Niko? Yes please

    Dawodu/Horie? Yes please

    Favorite dog? OAM

    Good luck everyone!

    I don’t think Cyborg is broken, and she should be fine since this is an MMA fight, and not a kickboxing match, which she sucks at. I like Neal, and OAM, but Dawodu still has a lot to prove, especially on the ground, where he’s very green. Should be a good card!

  • EWizzle81

    I have heard a couple mention Frota, what in the hell do you guys see in her? The more I look at it, Roberson should and will land take downs at will and most likely sub her inside of 2 rounds. Am I missing something?

  • gje627

    @EWizzle81 said...

    what in the hell do you guys see in her?

    $7600 with a very good chance at a finish.

    The strategy this week seems to be to squeeze in at least two of three of Holloway/Cyborg/Neal. If so, you’re going to need some salary relief. A lot of people here also seem to like OAM who is $200 cheaper than Frota. I don’t disagree but only worry that if OAM wins he does so via a low-scoring decision as opposed to an outright stoppage. Given that Frota is bigger and stronger than Robertson, I’ll gladly pay $200 more for her upside while still being able to fit in the bigger-named, main-event fighters in my lineups.

  • EWizzle81

    @gje627 said...

    $7600 with a very good chance at a finish.

    The strategy this week seems to be to squeeze in at least two of three of Holloway/Cyborg/Neal. If so, you’re going to need some salary relief. A lot of people here also seem to like OAM who is $200 cheaper than Frota. I don’t disagree but only worry that if OAM wins he does so via a low-scoring decision as opposed to an outright stoppage. Given that Frota is bigger and stronger than Robertson, I’ll gladly pay $200 more for her upside while still being able to fit in the bigger-named, main-event fighters in my lineups.

    Here’s my thing, Frota just got manhandled by Liviana Souza, if I’m not mistaken. She is now moving up in weight class taking on a bigger, stronger, better grappler and wrestler than Souza. Keep in mind the fact she was much bigger than Souza, but was taken down 4 times. Like I said, not sure what you guys are seeing here. Roberson will most like be a staple in my lines.

  • EWizzle81

    Also, if I am going down in the Frota price range, I don’t mind paying for Marc Andre. Think he absolutely has a chance to get the KO against a chinny Jotko.

  • thevogaman

    Considering Choi is an outright favorite now at $7800 we know he’s going to be popular

  • gje627

    57,850 possible lineups at or under $50000, 21,886 possible lineups where two fighters from the same fight are not in the same lineup (no fight stacks), 10 possible lineups stacking Holloway, Cyborg, and Neal without including a fight stack.

    If Holloway, Cyborg, and Neal all perform as expected, could be looking at lots of duplicate lineups tying for 1st in GPPs.

    The good news seems to be that at least 8 fights seem to have a high probability of ending in finishes. It will be interesting to see how many of the big three are in the winning and/or optimal lineup tonight.

  • rourke441

    who are the canadian fighters on the card

  • gje627

    @rourke441 said...

    who are the canadian fighters on the card

    Robertson
    Tucker
    Dawodu
    Barriault
    Davis
    OAM
    Spencer

  • iron_tactics

    @gje627 said...

    57,850 possible lineups at or under $50000, 21,886 possible lineups where two fighters from the same fight are not in the same lineup (no fight stacks), 10 possible lineups stacking Holloway, Cyborg, and Neal without including a fight stack.

    If Holloway, Cyborg, and Neal all perform as expected, could be looking at lots of duplicate lineups tying for 1st in GPPs.

    The good news seems to be that at least 8 fights seem to have a high probability of ending in finishes. It will be interesting to see how many of the big three are in the winning and/or optimal lineup tonight.

    Awesome stuff. I wonder how many unique possible lineups can be created with Holloway and Cyborg and no fight stacking.

  • iron_tactics

    @EWizzle81 said...

    Here’s my thing, Frota just got manhandled by Liviana Souza, if I’m not mistaken. She is now moving up in weight class taking on a bigger, stronger, better grappler and wrestler than Souza. Keep in mind the fact she was much bigger than Souza, but was taken down 4 times. Like I said, not sure what you guys are seeing here. Roberson will most like be a staple in my lines.

    Roberson gets frustrated and wants to give up when things don’t go her way. Is that still the case? I don’t know. Against Frota, she is less likely getting the submission as well as the fact that Frota has the advantage on the feet. I’m not saying i’m on Frota, i’m just saying why most people are on Frota.

  • jki7p6

    https://twitter.com/Delisketo/status/1012631991362211841

    For those worried about Dawodu and ground, you’re looking at this wrong.
    Technician vs bomber.

  • gje627

    @iron_tactics said...

    Awesome stuff. I wonder how many unique possible lineups can be created with Holloway and Cyborg and no fight stacking.

    Exactly 370.

  • gje627

    Notwithstanding what I said before, I’m finding it impossible to come-up with even one potentially unique lineup that has a snowball’s chance in h*ll of taking down a GPP.

    Anybody else having better luck?

  • iron_tactics

    @gje627 said...

    Notwithstanding what I said before, I’m finding it impossible to come-up with even one potentially unique lineup that has a snowball’s chance in h*ll of taking down a GPP.

    Anybody else having better luck?

    Nope, mine make think it would be better to just watch a bunch of 20 dollar bills burn

  • gje627

    @iron_tactics said...

    Nope, mine make think it would be better to just watch a bunch of 20 dollar bills burn

    Thanks …

    At least now I know I’m not a total moron ….

    Maybe I’ll just fade Cyborg’s high salary and hope she lands 1 significant strike, resulting in 1 knockdown, and the 1st round finish for only 100.5 total fantasy points (or better yet, Spencer getting through the first round); as somehow I’ve got to believe that the winning/optimal lineup tonight will be at least 630 fantasy points.

    The only other alternative I guess would be to fade the championship main event but with these 2 fighters and 5 rounds even a decision win by either fighter could result in over a zillion fantasy points.

    I guess I could do something I’ve never done before in a GPP and that is stack the Holloway/Edgar fight but the possible lineups here don’t seem to offer enough upside to warrant having a losing fighter in a lineup ….

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