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  • someclevername

    Saturday 11.2.19 – Madison Square Garden – NYC, NY

    PPV Main Card – 9pm CT

    Jorge Masvidal (169.6) vs Nate Diaz (170.4)
    Kelvin Gastelum (184) vs Darren Till (186)
    Stephen Thompson (170.4) vs Vicente Luque (170.2)
    Derrick Lewis (265) vs Blagoy Ivanov (257.4)
    Kevin Lee (155.6) vs Gregor Gillespie (155.4)

    ESPN2 Prelims – 7pm CT

    Corey Anderson (204.6) vs Johnny Walker (204.8)
    Shane Burgos (145.8) vs Makwan Amirkhani (145.4)
    Brad Tavares (184.6) vs Edmen Shahbazyan (185)
    Andrei Arlovski (244) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (246.2)

    ESPN+ / Fight Pass Early Prelims – 5:30pm CT

    Katlyn Chookagian (125.4) vs Jennifer Maia (127.2)*
    Lyman Good (169.6) vs Chance Rencountre (170.8)
    Julio Arce (145.4) vs Hakeem Dawodu (145.8)

    *Jennifer Maia missed weight and will forfeit 25 percent of her purse. The bout will proceed as scheduled

  • harperera

    This might be the best card of the year.

  • thevogaman

    There’s definitely a lot of quality fighters in the bottom tier. I think at least 1 of Anderson, Lee, Till, or Amirkhani will win outright. Kind of thinking it’s Amirkhani or Anderson.

    Lots of exposure to Rozenstruik and especially Shahbazyan at their respective salaries for me right now. Also, I’m super excited to see Gregor Gillespie again.

  • mnstone14

    anderson has to be a cash lock, right?

  • thevogaman

    @mnstone14 said...

    anderson has to be a cash lock, right?

    I mean… not if he gets knocked out in the first minute like the rest of Walker’s opponents in the UFC. I do favor Anderson to force his style of fight and win by decision though. But for cash, I see Mr. Finland having a floor of losing by decision with at least 30 fpts (as the cheapest fighter on the card).

    As I look at this card, I favor so many dogs. I like Anderson, Till, Maia, Arce, Luque, and Rencountre all to win. Finding the pieces that actually put up 100+ on this card is going to be hard though. Rozenstruik, Walker, and Gillespie are the 3 to me with the real slate-breaking potential.

  • jki7p6

    Best read ive had in a card in a month. Keyed in on Arce and Edmen odds so far.

  • harperera

    does anyone live bet mma? if so where do you do it being in us. I don’t live in one of the dk/fd sportbooks states.

  • NewMike

    Who scores more, winner of Maia/Chookagian or Thompson? I’m fading all 3 either way for DK.

    Not sure what to think about Shahbayzan, he’s only 21 and Tavares made it to decision against Adesanya. I think it’s a good fight to target heavy, but I will probably have more Tavares (and then change my mind on Saturday)

  • thevogaman

    @jki7p6 said...

    Best read ive had in a card in a month. Keyed in on Arce and Edmen odds so far.

    I don’t understand the hype for Dawodu and I favor Arce, but I think I’m fading this fight for DK. Just seems like a close decision with two guys that are (relatively) technical and conservative.

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    Not sure what to think about Shahbayzan, he’s only 21 and Tavares made it to decision against Adesanya. I think it’s a good fight to target heavy, but I will probably have more Tavares (and then change my mind on Saturday)

    Basically this. From what we’ve seen of Edmen, he brings so much aggression that I can’t help but think he’ll get caught and finished or else he just rolls Tavares. With all the value and some questionable plays in the upper salaries, I’ll probably be over-exposed to both sides of this fight.

  • NewMike

    I knew Gillespie was a beast, but I didn’t realize he’s never scored under 100 in DK in 6 fights and only goes up in points, so obviously his floor is 152, right? I think he can break Lee or he keeps getting TDs and Lee keeps getting back up and the points keep racking up.

  • callmetouch

    @NewMike said...

    I knew Gillespie was a beast, but I didn’t realize he’s never scored under 100 in DK in 6 fights and only goes up in points, so obviously his floor is 152, right? I think he can break Lee or he keeps getting TDs and Lee keeps getting back up and the points keep racking up.

    I’m a huge Gillespie fan and picking him based ignore my bias but Lee at 7100 is such a great play. I will not be rostering Lee though
    7100*

  • someclevername

    @callmetouch said...

    but Lee at 7100 is such a great play. I will not be rostering Lee though

    I am going to play Lee now cos this seems like a quote that will absolutely come back to bite you lol. Flip side is you can laugh at me when he predictably gasses in round 3 and gets finished.

  • jki7p6

    @someclevername said...

    I am going to play Lee now cos this seems like a quote that will absolutely come back to bite you lol. Flip side is you can laugh at me when he predictably gasses in round 3 and gets finished.

    He’s got staph again, he’s already gassed. 100+ for Gift incoming.
    Gotta Rostem Akman party-out and stop shaving the germs into you Lee!

  • someclevername

    @jki7p6 said...

    He’s got staph again

    For real? Wtf, Kevin? Well, that changes things lol

  • someclevername

    @jki7p6 said...

    Gotta Rostem Akman party-out and stop shaving the germs into you Lee!

    lol but also

  • mcgruffthecrimedog

    I get that Gillespie is a great wrestler and all, but Kevin Lee is def the toughest opponent he’s faced. I’m not saying Lee will win the fight but it seems like no one is even giving him a chance. Lee is much better in three round fights since cardio wont be as much of an issue and for some reason I can see Lee making it interesting and perhaps even winning.

  • someclevername

    @mcgruffthecrimedog said...

    I get that Gillespie is a great wrestler and all, but Kevin Lee is def the toughest opponent he’s faced. I’m not saying Lee will win the fight but it seems like no one is even giving him a chance. Lee is much better in three round fights since cardio wont be as much of an issue and for some reason I can see Lee making it interesting and perhaps even winning.

    Oh, I do agree with you and definitely give him a chance – agree that Lee is a big step up from anyone Gregor has fought and more importantly a better wrestler than anyone Gregor has fought in the UFC. My problems with Lee are his poor fight IQ at times and the always present cardio issues. Agree that a 3 rounder is definitely better but I do worry that Gregor’s style (super glue wrestling) might sap him. The staph thing is a wildcard – does he really have it? I don’t really know how to figure that in. He did have staph in the Ferg fight and made it to round 3. Against Ferg which is high marks but Ferg style obviously diff than Gregor. Lee also has a size advantage over Gregor.

    Long story short – I agree with you but I don’t know what I’m doing yet lol per tradition.

  • someclevername

    I really do not enjoy seeing AA’s name on a card cos I have absolutely convinced myself he’s due to get ko’d to the point that I paid over $9k for Ben Rothwell last time out :0. He’s always up to win or lose an ugly decision… Roz has ko’d Albini and Crowder who are terrible. AA is a crafty vet. Idk yet.

    Think I have to play Nate for his volume. Fading WB / Luque and hope WB just outpoints him. Anderson / Walker whew boy possibly have to get my unlucky quarter out for this one – leaning Anderson on the belief he can implement his wrestling before getting clocked upside the head with something serious and Walker celebrates by doing the worm and dislocating his shoulder again.

  • someclevername

    Also on Gas cos I have just never been a big believer in Till (I did think he’d beat Jorge though, whoops lol) and we’ve seen a few guys try to remedy their ills by going up in weight lately only to fail spectacularly (Vick, Weidman, Rockhold). Those dudes a little (a lot) more shopworn than Till, but if he still has his bad striking defense & his chin up in the air, I don’t see how going up is going to help him. Kelvin is a tough out for anyone and a bad 1st fight at a higher weight class – been a pattern in matchmaking. It’s MMA, Till could win, but I feel ok paying up for Kelvin. We shall see.

  • callmetouch

    This whole card is nuts. Don’t anyone dare play Jennifer Maia

  • Jordaneck

    I wanna go gastelum walker diaz tell me why they aren’t in the optimal.

  • someclevername

    @Jordaneck said...

    I wanna go gastelum walker diaz tell me why they aren’t in the optimal.

    I’m with you on Gas & Diaz – Walker / Anderson I’m a little more eh on but Walker absolutely has the ceiling. I am talking myself into him after leaning Anderson initially. I think this is a solid core too.

  • someclevername

    @callmetouch said...

    This whole card is nuts. Don’t anyone dare play Jennifer Maia

    Is anyone considering Maia? I want names lol

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Is anyone considering Maia? I want names lol

    Say what you will about playing Maia (i.e. dont do that) but Chookagian is an even worse play. There should be a gentleman’s agreement on this card that no one plays that fight period.

  • thevogaman

    @Jordaneck said...

    I wanna go gastelum walker diaz tell me why they aren’t in the optimal.

    I mean would you be surprised if Mas outboxed Diaz for 3 out of the 5? Masvidal hits harder, he’s faster, has a better chin, better wrestling, etc. I could see Masvidal putting a really bad beating on Diaz, who looked terrible against Pettis.

    That said I’m at 43% Mas and 38% Diaz right now. Diaz has the value and he’s always live, especially when you give him 2 extra rounds. He could outscore some sub 8k winners in a loss.

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