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  • someclevername

    Saturday 11.2.19 – Madison Square Garden – NYC, NY

    PPV Main Card – 9pm CT

    Jorge Masvidal (169.6) vs Nate Diaz (170.4)
    Kelvin Gastelum (184) vs Darren Till (186)
    Stephen Thompson (170.4) vs Vicente Luque (170.2)
    Derrick Lewis (265) vs Blagoy Ivanov (257.4)
    Kevin Lee (155.6) vs Gregor Gillespie (155.4)

    ESPN2 Prelims – 7pm CT

    Corey Anderson (204.6) vs Johnny Walker (204.8)
    Shane Burgos (145.8) vs Makwan Amirkhani (145.4)
    Brad Tavares (184.6) vs Edmen Shahbazyan (185)
    Andrei Arlovski (244) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (246.2)

    ESPN+ / Fight Pass Early Prelims – 5:30pm CT

    Katlyn Chookagian (125.4) vs Jennifer Maia (127.2)*
    Lyman Good (169.6) vs Chance Rencountre (170.8)
    Julio Arce (145.4) vs Hakeem Dawodu (145.8)

    *Jennifer Maia missed weight and will forfeit 25 percent of her purse. The bout will proceed as scheduled

  • Jordaneck

    I won’t play Jennifer Maia, and I’m nervous about gastelum, Gillespie, walker for these reasons. I’m concerned going up in weight will make Till less knockoutable, say 3rd round finish or decision etc? Or is it because he is fundamentally not a good fighter and loses to good fighters? Gillespie I favor but I think it’s dishonest to Lee to say it’s not close to 50/50. This has my gut saying if Gillespie wins it won’t be his absurd scores he has had so far. Probably wrong about that. Just think Lee can win, which is blocking me from the Gillmeister. Walker I see KO later in round one with extra stats making him score over 110 this time OR he gets wrestle ducked and loses a decision. Point out my flaws in opinion!

  • mlrfo4

    What are your thoughts on the Thompson/Luque fight. Vegas has it as pick em. I like Luque at $7700 for a pick em.

  • Jordaneck

    That’s a toss up too… could be a middling decision for Thompson, knockout from luque. So probably go Thompson cause now he’s going to win with over 100 lol

  • Jordaneck

    @thevogaman said...

    I mean would you be surprised if Mas outboxed Diaz for 3 out of the 5? Masvidal hits harder, he’s faster, has a better chin, better wrestling, etc. I could see Masvidal putting a really bad beating on Diaz, who looked terrible against Pettis.

    That said I’m at 43% Mas and 38% Diaz right now. Diaz has the value and he’s always live, especially when you give him 2 extra rounds. He could outscore some sub 8k winners in a loss.

    I’ve thought about playing both. I don’t know if I have the balls lol

  • thevogaman

    @Jordaneck said...

    Point out my flaws in opinion

    Agree with all that.

    Till definitely leaves openings to getting dropped and Kelvin drops dudes… so I can see Kelvin paying off his salary here. I’ve been upping my Gastelum exposure this morning.

    Similarly would anyone be shocked if Arce caught Dawodu? Arce wants you to try and chase him and Dawodu leaves himself open to the counter when he gets aggressive. I’m probably wrong.

    Edit: Also thinking Lyman Good is going to go very low-owned and could win pretty easily if he can keep it standing. Maybe worth having a few… he’s a NYC guy for some narrative.

  • Jordaneck

    I’m looking at arce Dawodu too. I like arce for upside, not sure you want this fight though. Boxing match with no finish will be lower scoring.

  • thevogaman

    @Jordaneck said...

    I’m looking at arce Dawodu too. I like arce for upside, not sure you want this fight though. Boxing match with no finish will be lower scoring.

    Yeah, it’s just like the nature of DFS. There’s always someone in a smash spot that busts… and then there’s somebody that’s a total afterthought (who’s at like sub 10%) that you ended up needing.

    What’s tonight’s fluke?

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Say what you will about playing Maia (i.e. dont do that) but Chookagian is an even worse play. There should be a gentleman’s agreement on this card that no one plays that fight period.

    Yeah, I should’ve said, “Is anyone considering that fight?”. 1st round finish now cos that’s what happens when I talk smack.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Yeah, I should’ve said, “Is anyone considering that fight?”. 1st round finish now cos that’s what happens when I talk smack.

    I’ve 100% faded both Chookagian and Maia on every card I’ve ever played and haven’t regretted it yet. Is this the week?

  • Jordaneck

    I think chookagian wins, I’m hoping she just doesn’t mow through Maia and score more than the other expensive fighters..

  • NewMike

    I think we could see AA get KO’d, he’s not fighting a big fat, slow dude, he’s a smaller kickboxer with power. But he also has no ground game and although rare, Arlovski will sometimes go for TDs and he might do that tonight. I’m pretty low on this fight in general, since it seems like a boom or bust type fight and there is so many better options.

    From a betting perspective, I would take Masvidal, but for DK, I’ve got more Diaz, if he wins I can’t see him not being on the optimal LU and he’s the UD. Masvidal seems to take rounds off sometimes if he thinks he’s up in the scorecards and he’s not a volume guy either. And at the end of the day it’s a couple of .500 fighters, neither of these guys is going to be winning a belt, but they’re both BMFs and I hope we see the killer Masvidal and not decision Masvidal. Diaz will be Diaz, because that’s the only thing he knows how to be.

    Seeing Till’s response about elbowgate makes me want to have more of him, he just looks super confident and comfortable. I have doubts on all of my picks, but the one thing that completely baffles me is how they let Gastelum lean on his coach during weigh-ins.

  • callmetouch

    Who has Rozenstruick beat?!!?!? I can’t pull the trigger on that fight on anyone

  • Jordaneck

    Will Ivanov be taking down Lewis or is he going to stand and box with him? I don’t think he can not get knocked out taking punches from Lewis.

  • thevogaman

    @Jordaneck said...

    Will Ivanov be taking down Lewis or is he going to stand and box with him? I don’t think he can not get knocked out taking punches from Lewis.

    Ivanov’s probably gonna throw one strike at a time like he always does and try to avoid getting hit. He’s pretty damn conservative out there. The jab to the body might add up for Blagoi but I dont see him grappling unless it’s trying to gas Lewis out in the clinch.

  • Jordaneck

    I’m playing Lewis, 1st Rd knockout

  • NewMike

    @callmetouch said...

    Who has Rozenstruick beat?!!?!? I can’t pull the trigger on that fight on anyone

    Everyone he’s fought

  • Jordaneck

    I don’t know wanna play Dawodu arce, but it’s making me sick I don’t want my lineup to be dead first fight lol.

  • NewMike

    I have one really important decision today, should I be productive and then watch the fights or should I day drink and play online poker and then watch the fights.

  • someclevername

    @Jordaneck said...

    I don’t know wanna play Dawodu arce, but it’s making me sick I don’t want my lineup to be dead first fight lol.

    I always worry about that too lol this is why I make a televised only lineup when those contests are available. Why lose once when I can lose twice?

  • thevogaman

    I think if you’re doing a single bullet… fading the 1st fight is the play (unless its a really good matchup like Jack Shore a while back).

    Arce/Dawodu seems like a good fade (if only doing one) to me.

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    I have one really important decision today, should I be productive and then watch the fights or should I day drink and play online poker and then watch the fights.

    I think you know the right choice here lol

  • NewMike

    My beer agrees with you

  • Jordaneck

    Yea I was shocked how good the finish line for rozenstruik was. I wasn’t considering him at all..

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Also thinking Lyman Good is going to go very low-owned and could win pretty easily if he can keep it standing. Maybe worth having a few… he’s a NYC guy for some narrative.

    You think he does come in at lower ownership? I could get there – Chance is sooo bad standing.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    You think he does come in at lower ownership? I could get there – Chance is sooo bad standing.

    I think he’ll be the lowest owned of the 8.4 to 7.8 range, at least. Could be way off on that though.

    I don’t know if I’d go there if I was only doing one lineup though… he just seems like a good leverage play.

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