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  • someclevername

    Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena – Jacksonville, FL

    PPV Main Card – 9pm CT

    Tony Ferguson (155) vs Justin Gaethje (155) – Interim LW Title Fight
    Henry Cejudo (c) (135) vs Dominick Cruz (135) – BW Title Fight
    Francis Ngannou (261.5) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (260)
    Jeremy Stephens (150.5)* vs Calvin Kattar (146)
    Greg Hardy (265.5) vs Yorgan De Castro (262)

    ESPN/ESPN+ Prelims – 7pm CT

    Donald Cerrone (171) vs Anthony Pettis (170.5)
    Aleksei Oleinik (227.5) vs Fabricio Werdum (243)
    Carla Esparza (115.5) vs Michelle Waterson (115)
    Vicente Luque (170) vs Niko Price (170.5)

    ESPN/ESPN+ Early Prelims – 5:30pm CT

    Bryce Mitchell (145.5) vs Charles Rosa (146)
    Ryan Spann (206) vs Sam Alvey (205)

    *Stephens missed the FW limit by 4.5 pounds and will be fined 30% of his purse.

    Hall/Souza OFF

  • smonger19

    (trying to use reverse psychology)

    This card really sucks. I hope it doesn’t happen and would definitely not bet on it if it did.

  • Tugglife2

    Pettis and Ferguson are my best bets. I’m wary of Cejudo and Cruz.

  • thevogaman

    @Tugglife2 said...

    I’m wary of Cejudo and Cruz.

    Feel the same way… it’s tough to fade a 5 rounder, but I do think there’s merit. I honestly don’t see Cejudo out-wrestling Dom or finishing him. So I’ll probably have like low-20% exposure to each, but if I was betting I’d pick a meh decision win for Cejudo.

  • Tugglife2

    Rozenstruik should be the most popular play, IMO.

  • jki7p6

    No Luque no win imo

  • thevogaman

    @jki7p6 said...

    No Luque no win imo

    I think I’ll end up with 50% Luque (and like 20% Niko) … that’s about where I am now with 80 lineups (in the $1).

    >Rozenstruik should be the most popular play, IMO.

    I think he’ll go lower-owned than you’d think, what with Ngannou being such a big name. I could see an uneventful decision for either guy.

    I’m having a hard time with all of these heavyweight fights. I wouldn’t be shocked if all 3 go to decision. I’m going to be on the Yorgan side of the Hardy fight, though. I think he hurts Hardy’s lead leg and Hardy quits once he knows he’s losing.

  • rourke441

    some of these guys are coming off 1-3 yr. layoffs i got cruz at plus 192 also like spann-katta-price p.s.question when does it pay to take both fighters in a dfs contest

  • gje627

    Oops. Actually said something here … not sure what I did. Anyways, hard to believe Khabib/Tony has been on then off five times.

    Tony/Justin should be a good fight, but really hope Ferguson wins. Dana has already said that if he does, the earliest a Khabib/Tony could happen would be in 2021. At 36, Ferguson isn’t getting any younger so it seems that if the fight doesn’t happen next year … it may never happen.

  • gje627

    @rourke441 said...

    when does it pay to take both fighters in a dfs contest

    “Once in a Blue Moon” … so the saying goes …. I.e., once every two to three years … that’s what the numbers say …. Interestingly, once every two to three years corresponds exactly to our galactic time of “Once in a Blue Moon” … our Moon that is.

  • thevogaman

    The last time I remember the main event stack working (I think it would have worked, don’t know if anyone had it) was Cormier/Stipe (think that was $8500/$7700). As much of a war as this should be, I think you only need the winner. If Tony loses it’s most likely an early stoppage win for Gaethje. I have to think a couple of Waterson, Rosa, de Castro, Cruz, Stephens, Price, Rozenstruik will win and outscore Gaethje (in a loss).

  • someclevername

    First off, it’s a f’ng travesty that Mabel & Olive aren’t on, at the very least, the early prelims. Their battles are legendary. LEGENDARY.

    I did give consideration to Justin, but oh boy – Tony is just a whole ‘nother animal. Only one man on Earth I would pick, with any confidence, against Tony and it isn’t Justin.

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    First off, it’s a f’ng travesty that Mabel & Olive aren’t on, at the very least, the early prelims. Their battles are legendary. LEGENDARY.

    I did give consideration to Justin, but oh boy – Tony is just a whole ‘nother animal. Only one man on Earth I would pick, with any confidence, against Tony and it isn’t Justin.

    UFC 249 is being billed as the greatest MMA fight card of all-time.

    Without Mabel and Olive … and Khabib … that’s not possible !!! :)

  • NewMike

    I think Tony should be the favourite, but the value is on Justin. Tony tends to get knocked down by everyone he fights and none of those guys really come close to the power Justin has in those hands. Tony is getting older, so he’s going to be slowing down and easier to hit and if he loses we don’t get Tony vs. Khabib (which is the real reason he won’t win).

    I’m probably going to be avoiding the 9K+ range, there’s no one there that I have any real confidence in. You need a finish for those prices and they are all fighting very dangerous guys.

  • NewMike

    I decided to make a LU with the 6 biggest UDs and it’s not that bad. Leaving $7100 on the table seems weird, but I’ve had less confidence in LUs before. It will most likely be a 20 way chop if I win though

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    UFC 249 is being billed as the greatest MMA fight card of all-time.

    Without Mabel and Olive … and Khabib … that’s not possible !!! :)

    You know it!

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    and if he loses we don’t get Tony vs. Khabib (which is the real reason he won’t win).

    I’ll be dead & buried before I truly give up on Tony/Khabib. Even then it’s questionable lol I’ll be sending messages via Ouija board, “It’s really happening this time you guys!”.

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    I decided to make a LU with the 6 biggest UDs and it’s not that bad.

    If Alvey and Oleinik end up in the winning lineup it’s going to be a long night for me.

    In general, I agree the 9k range is dangerous but I still think you’ll need at least one of them (probably 2).

  • NewMike

    I don’t think either will win, but they have paths to victory, so I might as well put them on 1 LU.

    I really think the winner will have over $2k left on the table. And it will be because Esparza gets 6 TDs and gets a GNP finish in the last 10 seconds of the first round.

  • yisman

    big question:

    Can you fade the main event and still have a reasonable chance to have a good score relative to the slate? Right now I think I’m fading it for my main lineup.

    Need more than just praying for a freak DQ.

  • yisman

    main event:

    Ferguson taking a risk. If he wins, it doesn’t do anything. He still waits for Khabib to fight.

    If he loses, he probably never gets a title fight.

    So in terms of his career and title chances, it’s all risk, no reward.

    Khabib being allowed to retain his belt without fighting is a little weird. Contrast with Ferguson, who lost the belt because he got hurt.

  • thevogaman

    @yisman said...

    Can you fade the main event and still have a reasonable chance to have a good score relative to the slate? Right now I think I’m fading it for my main lineup.

    I could see it where maybe it’s a close standup fight… where Gaethje is keeping him honest on the feet and isn’t allowing Tony to swarm him in the last minutes of rounds… and then Tony gets a quick sub in the 3rd. I could see that getting 85-90 points or something like that, and not being optimal. Or actually same scenario only Gaethje is kind of kicking his ass for the first 2 rounds, and then out of nowhere Imanari roll sub in the 3rd. For sure Gaethje will be optimal if he wins though (I just don’t think he will).

    I think you can fade the co-main (I planned on it), but shit… I’m at close to 40% exposure to both.

    I’m most concerned about Esparza/Waterson and Mitchell/Rosa. Anybody got a clue on ownership? I mean I can see the wrestling upside for both the favorites (and the outside shot of a sub from bottom for the dogs) but I don’t have that exposure to any of them. Concerned I’ll be 20% under the field on Esparza and she breaks the slate.

  • bigez952

    @thevogaman said...

    I’m most concerned about Esparza/Waterson and Mitchell/Rosa. Anybody got a clue on ownership? I mean I can see the wrestling upside for both the favorites (and the outside shot of a sub from bottom for the dogs) but I don’t have that exposure to any of them. Concerned I’ll be 20% under the field on Esparza and she breaks the slate.

    I have seen more than one tout saying to avoid this fight so I could see it going under owned as with no sports and these big contests it is bringing in people like me who know nothing about the sport and are going to lean on the expert analysis. I have 20 lineups built and have a 100% fade on that fight and the more I think about and look around at what everyone is saying I am not sure if that is a smart play.

  • thevogaman

    I just can’t see Carla finishing Waterson. So we’re going to need a whole lot of takedowns (and advances) for her to pay off. She’s never landed even 50 sig. strikes and is basically a lay-n-pray type.

    If anything, I’m warming up to Waterson being the dark horse who’s like 12% owned; and she pulls off the early sub. I just can’t though… this should be an ugly majority decision for Esparza where she scores like 70.

  • futoo

    What do you think of the weigh ins. Stevens looked a little weary and missed weight by 5 lbs.jacare looked good.werdum didnt.hardy said he’ d push the pace but was fairly close to missing weight

  • yisman

    @thevogaman said...

    I could see it where maybe it’s a close standup fight… w

    I was listening to some MMA guys talking about it on awesemo and they all said they would have at least one guy from the main event in every lineup, no matter how many lineups they ran.

    Ownership is going to be high, that’s for sure.

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