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  • someclevername

    Saturday, August 15th, 2020 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (PPV, 9pm CT)

    Heavyweight Title Fight
    Stipe Miocic (c) (233) vs Daniel Cormier (236)

    Sean O’Malley (136) vs Marlon Vera (136)
    Junior dos Santos (238.5) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (254)
    Herbert Burns (149.5)* vs Daniel Pineda (146)
    John Dodson (136) vs Merab Dvalishvili (136)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Jim Miller (156) vs Vinc Pichel (156)
    Virna Jandiroba (115.5) vs Felice Herrig (116)
    TJ Brown (146.5)** vs Danny Chavez (146)
    Livinha Souza (115.5) vs Ashley Yoder (115.5)

    Early Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 6pm CT)

    Chris Daukaus (241) vs Parker Porter (264.5)
    Kai Kamaka (145.5) vs Tony Kelley (145.5)

    *Burns missed the Featherweight limit by 3.5 pounds and fined 20% of his purse

    **Brown missed the Featherweight limit by 0.5 pounds and fined 20% of his purse

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Event Page

  • Johnsloop

    Fun card. Gotta be on the right side of the main and the JDS Rozensruik fight. JDS and Stipe have been looking great and USADA isn’t an issue so much now which has me leaning to each of them. Plus its only been a few months since Roz got put out. Should be fun while it lasts. Liking Daukaus and Cutelaba as early value and really considering Dodson for the upset. Just don’t want to miss out on another 10+ TD performance from Merab. Lots to look into.

  • CityBoy410

    @Johnsloop said...

    Fun card. Gotta be on the right side of the main and the JDS Rozensruik fight. JDS and Stipe have been looking great and USADA isn’t an issue so much now which has me leaning to each of them. Plus its only been a few months since Roz got put out. Should be fun while it lasts. Liking Daukaus and Cutelaba as early value and really considering Dodson for the upset. Just don’t want to miss out on another 10+ TD performance from Merab. Lots to look into.

    Didn’t Cutelaba get ok’d by Ankalaev before?

  • Johnsloop

    @CityBoy410 said...

    Didn’t Cutelaba get ok’d by Ankalaev before?

    On paper, yes. I think he was trying some poorly thought out movement strategy to bait him into a big counter, or he was legit hurt. I remember it as a bad stoppage, still have to look back.

  • thevogaman

    Been busy so haven’t been able to tape yet, but I’m really not understanding Porter/Daukaus. I read the names on DK and assumed this was Kyle Daukaus (who looked great in a loss to Brendan Allen recently) and assumed he was fighting someone who won on Contender series (or something). Why is this fight on a big card like this?
    Have to tape both, but I’m hoping Daukaus has some decent BJJ (like his brother) and can lock him in against a journeyman.

    See what the tape says, though.

  • rourke441

    miocic has a 7.5 in. reach advantage and has won 79 per cent of his fights by ko did cormier learn his lesson from last time dunno i like the champ to retain his title- also like merab dv. and omaley

  • someclevername

    @DamonMartin reporting Cutelaba tested positive for COVID-19

    Ion Cutelaba positive for COVID-19

  • thevogaman

    @Johnsloop said...

    really considering Dodson for the upset. Just don’t want to miss out on another 10+ TD performance from Merab. Lots to look into.

    If this was in the larger cage, I could see Dodson keeping the distance, avoiding the wrestling, and landing enough to make it close. Small cage… I just think Merab is going to be too much for – not just Dodson – but really everybody in this division except for Yan and Sterling (and maybe Jimmie Rivera based on matchup). He’s too athletic, his cardio is too good, and he’s just too relentless for anybody to not lose a unanimous decision against him.

    Sean O’Malley would lose a unanimous decision against Merab (and wanted absolutely no part of that matchup despite Merab calling him out).

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    @DamonMartin reporting Cutelaba tested positive for COVID-19

    Ion Cutelaba positive for COVID-19

    10 fights!? That just doesn’t work for me.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    10 fights!? That just doesn’t work for me.

    Yeah, it’s a pisser. They need to call up Paul Craig for that rematch – it would really tie the PPV together.

  • geardaddy

    I’d be shocked they let a ppv card only have 10 fights. Chimaev is ready they should call him.

  • dolphinkick182

    Kai Kamaka III vs. Tony Kelley sounds like a done deal as a replacement.

  • thevogaman

    @dolphinkick182 said...

    Kai Kamaka III vs. Tony Kelley sounds like a done deal as a replacement.

    Finally added them with Kamaka $8900 and Kelley $7300. Can finally start building. Something tells me Burns is going to be the more popular $8900 fighter.

  • CityBoy410

    Whats y’all thoughts on a Cormier/Miocic stack?

  • thevogaman

    @CityBoy410 said...

    Whats y’all thoughts on a Cormier/Miocic stack?

    I mean… it would have worked last time. I’ll have a few but I think there are other good 8k options that will outscore the main event loser.

  • marker0357

    In looking at last fight, it seems Cormier had a thing going with the leg kicks. He should have stayed with it. Inside work looked good but Miocic finally woke up to hammer the body in the 4th to loosen him up. I don’t understand why Miocic didn’t more effectively use his reach with the jab. Cormier got inside at will until he took those body blows. I’m betting Miocic will keep him away with his length and when Cormier does get inside, Miocic will go to the body first. 2d rd TKO Miocic.

  • miggs6876

    @thevogaman said...

    If this was in the larger cage, I could see Dodson keeping the distance, avoiding the wrestling, and landing enough to make it close. Small cage… I just think Merab is going to be too much for – not just Dodson – but really everybody in this division except for Yan and Sterling (and maybe Jimmie Rivera based on matchup). He’s too athletic, his cardio is too good, and he’s just too relentless for anybody to not lose a unanimous decision against him.

    Sean O’Malley would lose a unanimous decision against Merab (and wanted absolutely no part of that matchup despite Merab calling him out).

    I think there is a lot of value in playing Dodson on fanduel. He is very cheap, should rack up some points on take down defense, can land significant strikes, and has a chance to knock out Dval. Also, if he loses I think it goes to a decision. Might get you 60 plus points in a loss with 100 point upside at very low ownership. That’s how you take down a GPP.

    Also, like live dog Chavez and sharp money has jumped all over him. For flier, I don’t mind Herrig for $10. She’s the bigger fighter and Jandiroba isn’t anything special.

    Cash players might want to think about stacking the main event. Both can score well if the fight goes the distance. Cormier scored over 100 fps in his loss. GPP players have to have 100% exposure to this fight.

    My MVP looks to be Burns. Has high knockout percentage and win equity. However, it will be somewhat chalked.

    Good luck all.

  • thevogaman

    Something that’s got me into trouble the past couple weeks is hedging out of my initial reads a bit too much. I knew Gavin Tucker was the right side of the Jaynes fight and would come in at low ownership, but I ended up barely over the field at like 25%. Same with Dariush, I was initially at like 60% and ended up at like 40%.

    Initial reads were Rozenstruik and Merab, and I’m sticking there… and that O’Malley/Vera has the right odds, but probably goes to decision. I think you can get a lot of leverage by being underweight to O’Malley. A lot of touts on JDS, but I really don’t see it. His striking fundamentals have always been lacking and if he throws those blind rear uppercuts like he did against Blaydes, he’s going to get knocked out inside the 1st round.

    I don’t like these WMMA fights. I favor Yoder outright, but I think it will be a close, ugly fight that a $7600 winner won’t be optimal. And while I think Jandiroba should be the favorite, I also don’t think she subs Herrig… so I don’t know that she can get you a $9K score. I could see TJ Brown outscoring both winners of these women’s fights in a loss.

  • m994770

    @thevogaman said...

    Something that’s got me into trouble the past couple weeks is hedging out of my initial reads a bit too much. I knew Gavin Tucker was the right side of the Jaynes fight and would come in at low ownership, but I ended up barely over the field at like 25%. Same with Dariush, I was initially at like 60% and ended up at like 40%.

    Initial reads were Rozenstruik and Merab, and I’m sticking there… and that O’Malley/Vera has the right odds, but probably goes to decision. I think you can get a lot of leverage by being underweight to O’Malley. A lot of touts on JDS, but I really don’t see it. His striking fundamentals have always been lacking and if he throws those blind rear uppercuts like he did against Blaydes, he’s going to get knocked out inside the 1st round.

    I don’t like these WMMA fights. I favor Yoder outright, but I think it will be a close, ugly fight that a $7600 winner won’t be optimal. And while I think Jandiroba should be the favorite, I also don’t think she subs Herrig… so I don’t know that she can get you a $9K score. I could see TJ Brown outscoring both winners of these women’s fights in a loss.

    Let’s get ‘em. Full fade of the women’s fights, and I’m at like 33% O’Malley right now. Think I need to bite the bullet and jam in more Chito . . . !

  • thevogaman

    @m994770 said...

    Full fade of the women’s fights

    Not that it means anything and it’s probably rude to say, but man… Souza and Jandiroba are possibly the ugliest women to ever grace the octagon.

  • jki7p6

    Single bullet today. Im on Chito but not comfortable about it, hoping he doesnt overrate his speed and stands/bangs. If he respects Suga’s speed and grinds it from top on ground, game plan can get him an upset.
    Id really like Herrig here but major concern coming back from that gnarly knee.

  • CityBoy410

    I’m finding myself with a lot of Merab and I’m not too confident about it. Lol

  • WhiteyJones8

    Talk to me about Miller. I know nothing but I think that’s where I’m planting my flag. He’s a submission artist and six of his last seven fights have ended in the first round. Seems at least worth a GPP dart on the chance we can get a first round sub

  • jki7p6

    @WhiteyJones8 said...

    Talk to me about Miller

    One of the easiest fighters to root for (check out Lauzon/Miller wars for reference – both very respectful, awesome guys and incredibly technical and tough) and should win with Pichel’s shit takedown d. Miller ground game so far above anything Pichel has to offer. Not often Miller is younger than his opponent these days.

  • thevogaman

    @jki7p6 said...

    and should win with Pichel’s shit takedown d.

    And he should probably come in at lower ownership than Pichel based solely on the line flip.

    I disagree about Pichel’s TDD, though. Gillespie would take Miller down at will, also. Jim Miller might get a takedown or two, but I think we’ll see Pichel scramble before Miller can get his top game going. Honestly, I think Pichel will have the wrestling advantage and if there’s a lot of clinching going on in the 1st round… Pichel will be coasting the last 2 rounds.

    That said, I’m forcing in Miller lineups because of the price range… and I’m usually wrong about Jim Miller fights.

  • CityBoy410

    So on a scale of 1-10, what’s y’all confidence level on a Merab win

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