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  • someclevername

    Saturday, December 12th, 2020 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (PPV, 9pm CT)

    Flyweight Title Fight
    Deiveson Figueiredo (c) (124.5) vs Brandon Moreno (124.5)

    Tony Ferguson (155) vs Charles Oliveira (154.5)
    Mackenzie Dern (115) vs Virna Jandiroba (115)
    Jacare Souza (185.5) vs Kevin Holland (185)
    Junior dos Santos (246.5) vs Ciryl Gane (247.5)

    Prelims (ESPN2/ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Cub Swanson (145) vs Daniel Pineda (145.5)
    Renato Moicano (155) vs Rafael Fiziev (155.5)
    Billy Quarantillo (145.5) vs Gavin Tucker (146)
    Tecia Torres (115.5) vs Sam Hughes (115.5)

    Early Prelims (ESPN+, 6:30pm CT)

    Chase Hooper (145.5) vs Peter Barrett (145.5)

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Event Page

  • NewMike

    Figgy by murder

  • thevogaman

    I think we should set the line at over/under 9.5 fights to actually happen. Jacare/Holland seems most likely not to happen.

  • thebigboy

    • 857

      RG Overall Ranking

    Moicano and Cub seem like amazing dogs

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    Figgy by murder

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I think we should set the line at over/under 9.5 fights to actually happen. Jacare/Holland seems most likely not to happen.

    Think I’m going to wait until 5 mins before lock to do my lineup.

  • joephoto

    @someclevername said...

    Think I’m going to wait until 5 mins before lock to do my lineup.

    Yeah. Spent too much time creating a lineup last week and then 3 fights cancel short notice.

  • thevogaman

    If Tecia Torres at $8900 is in the optimal lineup… I’m done with DFS for a while.

  • NewMike

    @thevogaman said...

    If Tecia Torres at $8900 is in the optimal lineup… I’m done with DFS for a while.

    Torres pulls a Mazany and Holland finishes with a triangle.

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    Torres pulls a Mazany and Holland finishes with a triangle.

    I really think the line flip for Jacare is justified here. I’ll still probably take a 50/50 approach to this fight if I’m getting leverage playing Holland against a chalky Jacare, though.

  • thebigboy

    • 857

      RG Overall Ranking

    Tecia’s opponent is somewhat of a can but I don’t see her finishing ANY fight at this point

  • thebigboy

    • 857

      RG Overall Ranking

    @thevogaman said...

    I really think the line flip for Jacare is justified here. I’ll still probably take a 50/50 approach to this fight if I’m getting leverage playing Holland against a chalky Jacare, though.

    The thing with Jacare is that he doesn’t grapple because he knows it’ll make him gas quickly. However, since it’s the smaller cage, if Jacare does go to the mat I see him getting the 1st round sub. The real conundrum of the fight is deciding whether or not Jacare has the fight IQ to go for broke to get the sub.

  • thevogaman

    @thebigboy said...

    The thing with Jacare is that he doesn’t grapple because he knows it’ll make him gas quickly. However, since it’s the smaller cage, if Jacare does go to the mat I see him getting the 1st round sub. The real conundrum of the fight is deciding whether or not Jacare has the fight IQ to go for broke to get the sub.

    Yeah, I agree with all this. I think that Jacare is better everywhere, but he’s 40+ years old, so I’m not taking a stand one way or the other here.

    I’m finding it difficult to really take any kind of strong stands on these fights other than fading Tecia Torres.

    I’m considering a full fade on Gane. I’ve been pretty good at picking Gane fights, and this seems like a spot where it’s a lot closer to a split decision than a 1st round KO. Junior is completely shot, but I think Gane’s game is too conservative and he’ll be happy to just box and avoid danger. Reminds me of Boser/Arlovski in a lot of ways. Actually that’s the fight to make: JDS/Arlovski. How has that never happened?

  • thevogaman

    AAAAND… Spivac/Vanderaa appears to be off (at least the Draftkings app has it as PPD).

    Also just noticed DK app spells it Serghei Spivac but other places it’s Sergey Spivak. Am I being duped?!

  • NewMike

    Oliveira’s coach has covid, so that fight might be gone

  • thebigboy

    • 857

      RG Overall Ranking

    @NewMike said...

    Oliveira’s coach has covid, so that fight might be gone

    Fuuuuuuck

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    Oliveira’s coach has covid, so that fight might be gone

    Fed Ex’ng Charles some of those Cannonier crystals – it’ll be fine.

  • NewMike

  • thedkexperience

    I feel like JDS should be favored and cost 8600. His last 3 fights, all losses, were against the current number 1, 2 and 3 ranked heavyweight contenders. It’s not like he was getting yammed on by a bunch of tomato cans.

    Before those losses he beat the current number 4 guy, an unranked guy, and the number 13 ranked guy. The losses before that were to the current champ, and the current number 5.

    So yes, he may be done being a world title contender but his last 10 fights might be the hardest “strength of schedule” that a UFC heavyweight has ever taken on.

    Gane might be very good but unless he’s top 5 in the world, next in line to face Stipe good, I think he gets dealt with. Not all losses are the same. JDS just decided that he wanted to play an SEC schedule for some reason and his record suffered.

  • thedkexperience

    @NewMike said...

    Oliveira’s coach has covid, so that fight might be gone

    Plot Twist … Khabib comes out of retirement as a late fill in!

  • thevogaman

    @thedkexperience said...

    I feel like JDS should be favored and cost 8600. His last 3 fights, all losses, were against the current number 1, 2 and 3 ranked heavyweight contenders. It’s not like he was getting yammed on by a bunch of tomato cans.

    Yeah, I pretty much agree with all of this (so watch out). Unless Junior starts going back to those careless uppercuts like the Blaydes fight (which is a real possibility), I at least don’t think he gets finished here and likely wins the boxing. I think we see Gane try to wrestle and maybe he can land something big in the clinch against the cage, but I’m going to be way under the field on Gane for sure. I played the over 1.5 early on this one and it’s at -142 now.

  • thedkexperience

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, I pretty much agree with all of this (so watch out). Unless Junior starts going back to those careless uppercuts like the Blaydes fight (which is a real possibility), I at least don’t think he gets finished here and likely wins the boxing. I think we see Gane try to wrestle and maybe he can land something big in the clinch against the cage, but I’m going to be way under the field on Gane for sure. I played the over 1.5 early on this one and it’s at -142 now.

    I’m pretty bad at remembering specifics of fights especially since my UFC interest went from occasionally buying a mega PPV every few years to watching 7 hours of it every Saturday for 6 straight months.

    But what I have proven to myself to be good at is judging a fighter’s level based on opponents and type of win/loss.

    If this were WWE then JDS would simply be competing for the Intercontinental Title to keep him relevant instead of eating loss after loss to the 5 best big men on earth. Now his record makes him look like he’s cooked but I definitely think he has a surprise or two left in him.

    This sort of reminds me of the Anthony Smith spot a few weeks ago. There’s levels to this. Sometimes the 6th best guy is still a monster when facing a mortal. I think we’ll learn a lot about the placement of both fighters going forward from this fight.

  • someclevername

    “With a win this week, Tony Ferguson would move into a tie for the fourth-most wins (15) in UFC Lightweight history.

    Ferguson also needs to land 77 significant strikes to pass Cowboy Cerrone for the second-most in UFC Lightweight history.”

    “Tony Ferguson is one of just 32 fighters in UFC history with a career significant strike differential over +300

    At no point in the UFC has his career differential been negative.”

    “On an individual fight level, Ferguson has had a negative differential in just 3 bouts: Gaethje (-7), Lee (-1) & Johnson (-22).”

    All of the above per @NumbersMMA

    That is kind of crazy Tony was only -7 in the Gaethje fight considering how much of a beatdown it was.

    Olives not too shabby himself, per the UFC’s site – most submissions in UFC history (14), most POTN bonuses (10) & tied w/Cerrone for most finishes in the UFC (16).

  • NewMike

    I got some solid MMA math here. Darren Stewart has more subs than Souza in the last 3 years and he couldn’t sub Holland, therefore Holland won’t get subbed.

  • osuryanf

    I can’t help but think Jandiroba beats Dern

    Am I crazy for thinking this?

  • thebigboy

    • 857

      RG Overall Ranking

    @osuryanf said...

    I can’t help but think Jandiroba beats Dern

    Am I crazy for thinking this?

    Nope, tonight is the night Dern gets exposed

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