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  • someclevername

    Saturday, February 13th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (PPV, 9pm CT)

    Main Event – Welterweight Title Fight
    Kamaru Usman (c) (170) vs Gilbert Burns (170)

    Co-Main Event
    Maycee Barber (126) vs Alexa Grasso (125.5)

    Kelvin Gastelum (186) vs Ian Heinisch (185.5)
    Ricky Simón (145.5) vs Brian Kelleher (145.5)
    Julian Marquez (185) vs Maki Pitolo (185)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Rodolfo Vieira (186) vs Anthony Hernandez (186)
    Belal Muhammad (169.5) vs Dhiego Lima (171)
    Polyana Viana (116) vs Mallory Martin (115.5)
    Andre Ewell (138.5)* vs Chris Gutierrez (140)*

    Early Prelims (ESPN+, 6pm CT)

    Gabe Green (169.5) vs Philip Rowe (171)

    *Ewell/Gutierrez at 140 pound catchweight

    Green/Miller fight CANCELLED

    Robertson/Maverick fight CANCELLED

    Fight Odds

    Tapology FightCenter

  • someclevername

    Andre Ewell vs Chris Gutierrez added to card per @BigMarcel24

    Also, congrats to any Tampa Bay fans and bettors in here – geez that was a drubbing!

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Andre Ewell vs Chris Gutierrez added to card per @BigMarcel24

    Also, congrats to any Tampa Bay fans and bettors in here – geez that was a drubbing!

    I put $50 on the under and made a whopping profit of $103.68 on the Showdown, so look out for this whale come Saturday.

    I really don’t like this card at all, but I’ll still end up in way too deep wondering why I lost.

    I don’t really have any reads on this one, so I’d love to hear if anybody has any. Probably all in on Kelleher/Simon (25%/70%).

  • someclevername

    The Cuban Missile Crisis vs Coconut Bombz is TOP SHELF.

    I’ll take Gillian Robertson & Barber as underdogs w/nice upside. Kelleher too – he has some power, good cardio & a nice guillotine (he should have a chance or two). If Ricky grinds him out, so be it. Burns has paths, but I can’t get away from Usman especially now that foot stomps count. Munhoz/Rivera eh. Gastelum/Heinisch eh. Love Belal but not for $9200, eh. Miller is always live for the sub in round 1, but he falls off after that – can you trust Bobby Green though? Vieira sub feels too easy lol.

  • someclevername

    Idk a lot yet about Rowe, but his nickname is “The Fresh Prince” and ufcstats tells me he’s gonna have a 7” reach advantage. That might be enough for me.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Usman especially now that foot stomps count.

    Yeah, I’ll play some Burns just on general principle, but Usman should absolutely smash here. I’m curious if Maverick will be too strong for Gillian like Santos was… otherwise I see Gillian grappling her way to a pretty one-sided win.

    Last week was weird where it seemed like everyone scored over 100, I’m hoping that trend doesn’t continue and it’s a little more difficult to break 600 pts this week.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I’m curious if Maverick will be too strong for Gillian like Santos was

    It is certainly possible. One of the big reasons I took Santos over her (would’ve been nice to have control time counted for that one).

    I’ll roll the dice on that not happening for $7700 though, since if she can get her grappling going she’ll easily pay off her tag. I like that it’s the first fight so if Maverick does roll her, I’ll just go make a late lineup lol.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I like that it’s the first fight so if Maverick does roll her, I’ll just go make a late lineup lol.

    Always a good strategy.

    Heard Rivera/Munhoz is getting moved, hopefully they slide Gutierrez/Ewell in at the same prices. Gutierrez should absolutely smash IMO.

  • factorial89

    i bet the main co-main and the bobby green fight to all go the distance.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Gutierrez should absolutely smash IMO.

  • thedkexperience

    Has anyone pulled a list of walk out music yet? If we learned nothing from last week it’s that slow paced walkout music + a great nickname = early KO bonus.

    It’s science!

  • NewMike

    We might have the greatest nickname fight yet with The Cuban Missile Crisis vs Coconut Bombz. I think it’s time for a crisis.

    I really want to start fading Robertson, but I think this is a good match up for her. She’ll have a size advantage and Maverick has weak TDD and Robertson is probably quite a bit better on the ground. I just don’t have any faith in her.

    Green/Rowe is probably a good fight to target, these guys rarely see a decision. I don’t really know either guy, but Green is probably the side.

    Also, I think this is a good spot for Belal, to absolutely dominate and maybe even get a TKO, because Lima is not even close to his level. I think he can take him down and control him for most of the fight and could get you around 95 points. I agree Gutierrez should smash here and Vieira, but he only seems to have about 1 round of cardio in him. I’m trying to figure out if Gastelum is broken or it’s just the high level of competition.

  • NewMike

    There’s a $5K freeroll this week by Modelo. It’s $500 for first

  • NewMike

    Sounds like Munhoz/Rivera is off the card

  • BigDaddy123

    is fanduel gonna put their contests up for this event or what?

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    There’s a $5K freeroll this week by Modelo. It’s $500 for first

    Thanks for the heads up… I legit would not have seen that.

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    I’m trying to figure out if Gastelum is broken or it’s just the high level of competition.

    This is the tough question. Seems like his 185 run was beating dusty old fighters and losing to anyone with a pulse. Heinisch will fight for your money, is much bigger, and isn’t chinny… so I’ll take some shots on both sides.

  • Johnsloop

    Anyone have an idea why the Barber/Grasso line flipped? I get that Barber is coming off of a significant injury and layoff, but I feel she should still be a moderate favorite. Something I’m missing? Is it just value? I’m pretty confident with Barber as a dog here.

  • someclevername

    @Johnsloop said...

    Anyone have an idea why the Barber/Grasso line flipped? I get that Barber is coming off of a significant injury and layoff, but I feel she should still be a moderate favorite. Something I’m missing? Is it just value? I’m pretty confident with Barber as a dog here.

    Probably what you said – the injury, layoff, losing to Roxy (who people clown on) as a big favorite. Plus people just don’t seem to like her. The biggest red flag of all is I also like her in this spot lol.

  • NewMike

    There’s a lot of money coming in on Barber and I think she is the better pick as far as DFS. She likes to rush forward and Grasso has decent boxing, which might be why she’s the underdog. I think it will be a pickem come fight time.

  • someclevername

    Feel like Martin/Viana has potential – kinda leaning…Martin? Get your takedowns, rack up control time, land a few strikes and try not to end up in an armbar.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Feel like Martin/Viana has potential – kinda leaning…Martin? Get your takedowns, rack up control time, land a few strikes and try not to end up in an armbar.

    Or get the takedown and get subbed by armbar from guard, amirite?

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Or get the takedown and get subbed by armbar from guard, amirite?

    Correct.

  • someclevername

    Me playing Martin after playing Belbita vs Jojua

    “I’ll f’n do it again” meme

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Me playing Martin after playing Belbita vs Jojua

    “I’ll f’n do it again” meme

    Yeah seriously though… I think Martin should win. I’ll be heavy on both sides, though.

    Why do I feel like Miller/Greene is going to be 15 minutes of Jim Miller on Greene’s back against the cage where nothing happens but control time for Miller and insignificant strikes from Bobby where he’s punching behind his own head?

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Why do I feel like Miller/Greene is going to be 15 minutes of Jim Miller on Greene’s back against the cage where nothing happens but control time for Miller and insignificant strikes from Bobby where he’s punching behind his own head?

    I’ve been talking myself into Green so this would be rather infuriating lol. I don’t think Jim can control him that long but also King Bobby is really hard to trust. I just see Green being able to deal with dangerous round 1 Jim and then taking over – maybe a late finish…maybe. He’s not really a finisher and Jim is so tough to get out of there. Or he makes this fight much closer than it needs to be and loses another decision. That’s the joy of taking him, just never know.

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