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  • someclevername

    Saturday, March 27th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (PPV, 9pm CT)

    Main Event – Heavyweight Title Fight
    Stipe Miocic (c) (234) vs Francis Ngannou (263)

    Co-Main Event
    Tyron Woodley (171) vs Vicente Luque (170.5)

    Thomas Almeida (136) vs Sean O’Malley (136)
    Gillian Robertson (125.5) vs Miranda Maverick (126)
    Jamie Mullarkey (155.5) vs Khama Worthy (155.5)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Alonzo Menifield (205) vs Fabio Cherant (206.5)*
    Jared Gooden (171) vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov (170.5)
    Modestas Bukauskas (205.5) vs Michał Oleksiejczuk (206)
    Shane Young (145.5) vs Omar Morales (146)

    Early Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 6:30pm CT)

    Abu Azaitar (185.5) vs Marc-André Barriault (185)

    *Cherant missed the light heavyweight limit by 0.5 pounds and will be fined 20% of his purse

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • thedkexperience

    @geardaddy said...

    I wonder why dana decided not to add more fights with all the drops on ppv. What ever happened to overloading a card with 15+ fights just incase of expected drops?

    Because Stipe vs Ngannou is the biggest money fight that UFC can put on in 2021 that does not include McGregor, Khabib or Jones.

    It took a while but this is Dana showing his hand that he believes that people will buy the card based on just the main.

  • thedkexperience

    @thevogaman said...

    obligatory:

    You know what … when you put it that way I cannot argue!

    Shake and bake! 🤣

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    He’s probably going to get knocked out in the 1st round.

    Magic 8 Ball says: “Very likely. Then match O’Malley up with Chris Gutierrez.”

    *And Almeida with those sunglasses again at weigh-ins…

  • CityBoy410

    @thedkexperience said...

    Because Stipe vs Ngannou is the biggest money fight that UFC can put on in 2021 that does not include McGregor, Khabib or Jones.

    It took a while but this is Dana showing his hand that he believes that people will buy the card based on just the main.

    Maybe we “the people” need to start showing our hand. Lol

  • thevogaman

    I’ve been looking at this card trying to figure out which fighter I’m underweight to is going to end up optimal. Last week it was Max Griffin.

    I think the candidates are: Morales, Barriault, Azaitar, or Gooden.

    Anybody got any good reads (or anything) to play one of them?

  • smonger19

    I was looking for a reason to fade Menifield….then I saw that Fabio Cherant is nicknamed “Water Buffalo”….good enough for me….

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    I was looking for a reason to fade Menifield….then I saw that Fabio Cherant is nicknamed “Water Buffalo”….good enough for me….

    Yeah, I’m passing & praying on this one. Bust candidate if it gets out of the first. Menifield’s cardio *hasn’t looked great, maybe he’s improved though, and he is coming off his first KO loss. Some guys fight a bit more tentative after getting ktfo and some guys go full Niko Price. Who knows. From what I understand, Water Buffalo isn’t a high volume guy so it’s like…idk. It’s only 10 fights and Menifield might be the highest owned fighter. I’ll pass and if he gets the Quick Win bonus then oh well lol won’t be the first time I’ve lost.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I’ve been looking at this card trying to figure out which fighter I’m underweight to is going to end up optimal. Last week it was Max Griffin.

    I think the candidates are: Morales, Barriault, Azaitar, or Gooden.

    Anybody got any good reads (or anything) to play one of them?

    The only one of these I have is Gooden, but it’s mostly due to getting lucky going against Abubakar once so why not try it again. I’ve just never been high on this Nurmagomedov, but it does seem pretty likely that Gooden gets 30-27’d. So…no. I don’t have any intelligent reasons for you to play him lol.

  • someclevername

    Alpha Ginger won in LFA tonight. As he was a forum favorite, this is a good omen. Someone here is winning big $$ Saturday.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Alpha Ginger won in LFA tonight. As he was a forum favorite, this is a good omen. Someone here is winning big $$ Saturday.

    I don’t understand why he got cut to begin with… he should have got the nod in the Billy Q fight and he lost to Algeo. Fan-friendly style, personality for days… I don’t understand.

    I never picked against him, so hopefully your prognostication proves to be true.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I don’t understand why he got cut to begin with… he should have got the nod in the Billy Q fight and he lost to Algeo. Fan-friendly style, personality for days… I don’t understand.

    Right?

    I also thought Rhys McKee deserved one more fight. Vinicius Moreira had FOUR fights! McKee took a Khamzat fight on short notice and they give him one shot vs Morono. Smh.

  • jki7p6

    @thevogaman said...

    I don’t understand why he got cut to begin with

    https://www.bloodyelbow.com/platform/amp/2020/7/10/21317544/ufc-spike-carlyle-apologetic-following-recent-anti-semitic-social-media-post-mma-news

  • jki7p6

    @someclevername said...

    From what I understand, Water Buffalo isn’t a high volume guy so it’s like…idk

    Yeah i got counterpuncher too. He can be hit but will swarm on advantage. Might pivot a chance on him – take that into consideration, ive been reading fights lousy, well its been a minute since i havent. Go opposite? (Like Frankie Steroids tonight btw. Also Approve of the Suga Athletic Commission)

  • iron_tactics

    Alright, I might go heavy on Woodley for this card. I know he lost his last three, but theres no shame in either of those. Low output for sure his last 3 even more so. These odds tell me Luque is on the same tier as Usman, Covington, and Burns. Is that the case? I like Luque, but almost a pick em against Thompson was silly, -300 vs Woodley? That screams over reaction. Woodley I think has the highest chance to win (this doesnt mean 100% guaranteed my dudes). What does give me hella pause though, is he did score like 43 pts in a 3rd dec win. So even in a win he might dookie it. Gonna be back and forth on fade or Woodley today. I might make 1 or 2 Luque lineups cause MMA. I might let ownership guide my hand

  • thevogaman

    @jki7p6 said...

    https://www.bloodyelbow.com/platform/amp/2020/7/10/21317544/ufc-spike-carlyle-apologetic-following-recent-anti-semitic-social-media-post-mma-news

  • someclevername

    @jki7p6 said...

    https://www.bloodyelbow.com/platform/amp/2020/7/10/21317544/ufc-spike-carlyle-apologetic-following-recent-anti-semitic-social-media-post-mma-news

    I’ve never seen this before…yeah, that does connect some dots. Yikes.

  • thevogaman

    @iron_tactics said...

    Alright, I might go heavy on Woodley for this card. I know he lost his last three, but theres no shame in either of those. Low output for sure his last 3 even more so. These odds tell me Luque is on the same tier as Usman, Covington, and Burns. Is that the case? I like Luque, but almost a pick em against Thompson was silly, -300 vs Woodley? That screams over reaction. Woodley I think has the highest chance to win (this doesnt mean 100% guaranteed my dudes). What does give me hella pause though, is he did score like 43 pts in a 3rd dec win. So even in a win he might dookie it. Gonna be back and forth on fade or Woodley today. I might make 1 or 2 Luque lineups cause MMA. I might let ownership guide my hand

    Yeah, it’s a tough spot. I’m in at 20% Woodley just because I can see him landing the big overhand, but Luque will absolutely force Woodley to fight, so I might up that number a bit.

    Luque’s style just doesn’t allow for anything but a scrap. Luque is definitely going to have to get a knockdown and finish to be optimal, but Woodley isn’t as durable as people think. He just fights so cautiously that he doesn’t get hit clean. Could also see Woodley getting a really bad cut or his eye closed up, but I think Luque drowns him.

  • someclevername

    @jki7p6 said...

    Yeah i got counterpuncher too. He can be hit but will swarm on advantage. Might pivot a chance on him – take that into consideration, ive been reading fights lousy, well its been a minute since i havent. Go opposite? (Like Frankie Steroids tonight btw. Also Approve of the Suga Athletic Commission)

    “Reading fights lousy” along with recency bias, nickname analysis & creating my own narratives at weigh-in pretty much make up the entirety of my process lol.

    I am fading Menifield/Cherant, but whew do not feel confident in doing so. Usually when I swerve due to ownership, it doesn’t work out…so I’m going to do it again!

    Also on Big Frank & Suga Show.

  • factorial89

    i love this bet i made-parlay vicente luque and under 2.5 rds.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I am fading Menifield/Cherant, but whew do not feel confident in doing so.

    I think it’s a good play (especially since you’re a single bullet guy). If it busts, you’re probably beating 70% of the field (in theory).

    I’m hoping that after Alonzo’s last 2 fights, his team has fixed some things. He gassed himself out when he couldn’t get the quick finish against Clark, so he comes out against OSP and decides he needs to pace himself by losing a range boxing match. I’m hoping the adjustment is that he just embraces what he is (kind of like Ngannou): a front-running destroyer.

  • thedkexperience

    @factorial89 said...

    i love this bet i made-parlay vicente luque and under 2.5 rds.

    And our first contender for no decision by way of 2nd round eye poke goes to …

  • thedkexperience

    I’m shooting a few bullets this week because I can’t really think of a scenario aside from a fan pulling a fire alarm where the main event winner doesn’t score 120+.

    Damnit … now I put the eye poke knee to a downed opponent bad ju ju on the main event.

    The suspense over what fight gets hexed this week is riveting!

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    He gassed himself out when he couldn’t get the quick finish against Clark, so he comes out against OSP and decides he needs to pace himself by losing a range boxing match. I’m hoping the adjustment is that he just embraces what he is (kind of like Ngannou): a front-running destroyer.

    I have to give Clark some credit – didn’t Menifield break his orbital in the 1st? I have no idea if Cherant can fight through something like that.

    Ugh, pretty sure I was on Menifield vs OSP. I hope he comes out like that lol but you’re probably right in that he goes beast mode out of the gate as it is his best path.

    Speaking of my failures going against OSP – Lord Michal is back! I had such a good lineup that night too. Thought he had him out of there in the 1st, gasses in the 2nd & gets Von Preux’d. No way he & Modestas go to the judges, right? I’m back on Mikey O, but dude is not a LHW. Should really drop down.

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    Damnit … now I put the eye poke knee to a downed opponent bad ju ju on the main event.

    Haven’t we suffered enough?!

    *Actually I’m pretty sure my lineups were bailed out by these recent catastrophes…no way that kind of luck continues.

  • Carpocarp

    A little deep in the lab here, but Maverick really struggled with takedowns even on the regionals, any reason Robertson isn’t going to strangle her for 3 rounds?

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