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  • someclevername

    Saturday, April 24th, 2021 | VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena | Jacksonville, FL

    Main Card (PPV, 9pm CT)

    Main Event – Welterweight Title Fight
    Kamaru Usman (c) (169.5) vs Jorge Masvidal (170)

    Co-Main Event – Women’s Strawweight Title Fight
    Zhang Weili (c) (114.5) vs Rose Namajunas (114.5)

    Women’s Flyweight Title Fight
    Valentina Shevchenko (c) (124.5) vs Jessica Andrade (124.5)

    Chris Weidman (186) vs Uriah Hall (185)
    Anthony Smith (206) vs Jimmy Crute (205.5)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Randy Brown (171) vs Alex Oliveira (171)
    Dwight Grant (170) vs Stefan Sekulić (171)
    Brendan Allen (186) vs Karl Roberson (185)
    Tristan Connelly (146) vs Patrick Sabatini (146)

    Early Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 5pm CT)

    Danaa Batgerel (136) vs Kevin Natividad (135.5)
    Rong Zhu (156) vs Kazula Vargas (155)
    Jeff Molina (126) vs Aori Qileng (126)
    Ariane Carnelossi (115) vs Na Liang (116)

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • someclevername

    The Carnelossi/Liang fight feels very familiar to me for some reason. I can’t quite put my armbar on why though.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    The Carnelossi/Liang fight feels very familiar to me for some reason. I can’t quite put my armbar on why though.

    You get the impression that Carnelossi may have at one point (early) in her career perhaps used performance enhancing drugs? Maybe it’s just lots of Acai berries?

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    You get the impression that Carnelossi may have at one point (early) in her career perhaps used performance enhancing drugs? Maybe it’s just lots of Acai berries?

    Strong Supermarket Sweep vibes at the Acai berry store

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Strong Supermarket Sweep vibes at the Acai berry store

    She may have eaten all of the berries.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    She may have eaten all of the berries.

    All of the berries in all of the lands won’t save her from a harm jar. Might do three lineups – one w/Niang in case she gets the early sub, one w/Acai Carnelossi in case she smashes and one w/neither in case this defies the odds and turns out to be a crappy decision. I mean… is there any way to be confident in a side here?

  • CityBoy410

    Low key, I think I like this version of Thug Rose as far as her mental goes. I think she’s ready.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    is there any way to be confident in a side here?

    My confidence is with crappy decision, so probably one of the first two.

  • someclevername

    She’s going to get lit up like a Christmas tree, but damn it I gotta play Andrade at $6700.

  • factorial89

    shevchenko has fought amanda nunes twice and lost twice.so who can beat her here with no nunes. however her opponent has a killer ko punch.my live dogs are uriah hall and roberson.the card fade-grant.gl all.

  • thevogaman

    @factorial89 said...

    my live dogs are uriah hall and roberson.the card fade-grant.gl all.

    I like the ownership on those 2. There’s always one mid-priced fighter that breaks the slate at low ownership. One of Oliviera, Brown, Roberson, Hall, or Anthony Smith is going to end up on the optimal and I won’t have them in the right lineup.

  • BigDaddy123

    is carnelossi vs nia lang going to be William Knight vs Giant asian guy part 2 ?

  • someclevername

    @BigDaddy123 said...

    is carnelossi vs nia lang going to be William Knight vs Giant asian guy part 2 ?

    Let me tell you what’s going to happen w/this fight. I’m going to consider playing 3 lineups to cover my bases on it, but I won’t. I’ll play 1. I’m going to consider playing Liang cos she’s cheaper & has that sub upside, but I won’t. I’ll talk myself into Carnelossi Hulk smashing. The fight will happen and either Liang will pay off by grabbing an armbar or Carnelossi wins an eh dfs decision via top control but not much else. I refer back to this post and smack myself in the face.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Let me tell you what’s going to happen w/this fight. I’m going to consider playing 3 lineups to cover my bases on it, but I won’t. I’ll play 1. I’m going to consider playing Liang cos she’s cheaper & has that sub upside, but I won’t. I’ll talk myself into Carnelossi Hulk smashing. The fight will happen and either Liang will pay off by grabbing an armbar or Carnelossi wins an eh dfs decision via top control but not much else. I refer back to this post and smack myself in the face.

    Just make sure you let us know which way you decide to go before lock, so I can go the opposite way.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Just make sure you let us know which way you decide to go before lock, so I can go the opposite way.

    Will do lol – I’m always looking out for y’all. Throwing myself on grenades over here for the greater good.

  • someclevername

    Inspired to do a PSA w/my takes on the title fights (so you can avoid accordingly and/or talk trash later):

    Usman/Masvidal – I honestly do not see how this goes any differently than the first time. Mythical full camp Jorge aside, he just doesn’t have the tools. He’s had some flashy KO’s that were awesome, don’t get me wrong, but career-wise Jorge is a journeyman fighter that used to drop decisions on the reg. I applaud him for cashing in on his opportunities, but beating Usman is a bridge too far. I’ve seen some chatter about how Usman might stand and trade for ego or something, but 1. Whether you like him or not, Usman is smart. He has great fight IQ (rare) – he knows his path to victory. 2. I love Jorge, but he is not some monstrous power hitter. He’s a good fighter, he’s got legendary durability, he’s is as tough as they come… but I’m afraid the BMF belt is the only one he’s gonna hold.

    Zhang/Rose – this is the closest title fight w/o question. I’ve come around on Zhang and have boarded the hype train, but I do not think this is a slam dunk by no means. Rose has excellent striking, footwork – she cuts angles so well – she has underrated power and do not sleep on her ground game. Her sub line is worth a peek. I’m playing Zhang and if this hits the ground and a scramble ensues… I will be extremely concerned. I rewatched Zhang/JJ last night and you can make a good case that JJ won that fight. So why am I paying 9k for her? Cos she’s a f’ng dog and this is a 5 round fight. There was a sequence at the end of round 2, I think, of the JJ fight where Joanna hit her with a fluuuuush kick to the face, ran in and headbutted (not intentional) and then landed a couple knees to the body. Zhang was like… ok? JJ also hit her with a spinning backfist right on the button – at the end of round 5! She wasn’t fazed. I concede it ain’t great to be getting hit w/this stuff, but I trust her to take it well when she does. I think Rose is the more technical fighter and an excellent play at her salary, but whether right or wrong my gut says Zhang. I think she wins a war of attrition. I agree w/Rose winning early, she’s going to look fantastic in rounds 1 & 2. After that we’ll see. No hate for Rose plays though – definitely has the best shot of “And New!”.

    Shevchenko/Andrade – this one hurts my heart lol. It is most likely going to be a lopsided beatdown decision win in favor of Valentina, but I can’t help myself. I’m gonna play Jessica but holy shit is she live for a highlight reel KO loss. Specifically, a left head kick highlight reel KO loss. All of the reasons that she’s a bad play make her a good yolo play imo. She’s aggressive, she is not going to be intimidated by Shev AT ALL, for better or worse (prob worse), she is going to try to win this fight or die trying. The latter is much, much more probable… but (with Weidman on the card and all) she’s still my girl! For the lower weight classes, she has true power. I’m not sold that she can actually hit Valentina square, but if if she does… could get interesting. She’s strong, determined and she won’t quit until her lights are turned off. If she can hit a powerbomb on Shev before she loses, I consider that a win lol. I guess the real question here is, unless you’re an idiot like me playing Andrade, can Valentina pay off her price?

  • joephoto

    I think I need to stack one of these 5 rounders. Which one for most DK points ?
    Thinking Shevchenko / Andrade right now.
    All three look promising.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I guess the real question here is, unless you’re an idiot like me playing Andrade, can Valentina pay off her price?

    Yeah, I don’t see her hitting optimal unless Masvidal shocks the world. Too hard to get her to fit with Usman, plus there should be too many high scores in the mid range.

    This was a really good write-up.

  • thevogaman

    @joephoto said...

    I think I need to stack one of these 5 rounders. Which one for most DK points ?
    Thinking Shevchenko / Andrade right now.
    All three look promising.

    Yeah, kind of agree they are all promising. Usman/Masvidal has the highest floor… but I assume you’d have Usman either way. I think Rose/Zhang is closest on paper so I’d go there, but all 3 seem logical to stack if you’re trying to win to the next round.

    I wonder if you see a lot of Usman/Shev/Andrade/Rose/Zhang/Weidman lineups… with the double stack.

  • geardaddy

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, kind of agree they are all promising. Usman/Masvidal has the highest floor… but I assume you’d have Usman either way. I think Rose/Zhang is closest on paper so I’d go there, but all 3 seem logical to stack if you’re trying to win to the next round.

    I wonder if you see a lot of Usman/Shev/Andrade/Rose/Zhang/Weidman lineups… with the double stack.

    have we even seen a stack lineup win since the new scoring system? it use to be viable because the previous scoring favored striking but now the new scoring system is more favorable towards grappling. I don’t see any of the championship fights were we’d see back and forth grappling.

  • mnstone14

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, kind of agree they are all promising. Usman/Masvidal has the highest floor… but I assume you’d have Usman either way. I think Rose/Zhang is closest on paper so I’d go there, but all 3 seem logical to stack if you’re trying to win to the next round.

    I wonder if you see a lot of Usman/Shev/Andrade/Rose/Zhang/Weidman lineups… with the double stack.

    you think masvidal/usman has a high floor? I think theres a strong liklihood we see usman dominate again and masvidal get maybe 50-70 strikes in. Thats what, at best 30 points? rose/zhang is the obvious one, only question i have is do i play andrade for the price.

  • thevogaman

    To he clear, I was talking about Joe trying to get to the next round of Knockout Kings… I do not advocate stacking any fight in GPP.

    I think Masvidal/Usman has the best floor because we already saw it score 186 combined last time. I’m saying it has the safest floor purely because of Usman.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I do not advocate stacking any fight in GPP.

    You’re not doing any Carnelossi/Liang stacks?

  • joephoto

    @thevogaman said...

    To he clear, I was talking about Joe trying to get to the next round of Knockout Kings… I do not advocate stacking any fight in GPP.

    I think Masvidal/Usman has the best floor because we already saw it score 186 combined last time. I’m saying it has the safest floor purely because of Usman.

    Looks like stack a 5 rounder, but use Usman regardless.

  • thevogaman

    @joephoto said...

    Looks like stack a 5 rounder, but use Usman regardless.

    I think Usman will be 70% owned in those high dollar tournaments. I’d just trust your process and do what got you there.

  • joephoto

    @thevogaman said...

    I think Usman will be 70% owned in those high dollar tournaments. I’d just trust your process and do what got you there.

    You guys got me here.

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