STRATEGY FORUM

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  • someclevername

    Saturday, May 15th, 2021 | Toyota Center | Houston, TX

    Main Card (PPV, 9pm CT)

    Main Event – Lightweight Title Fight
    Charles Oliveira (155) vs Michael Chandler (155)

    Co-Main Event
    Tony Ferguson (156) vs Beneil Dariush (156)

    Matt Schnell (136) vs Rogério Bontorin (137)*
    Katlyn Chookagian (126) vs Viviane Araujo (126)
    Shane Burgos (146) vs Edson Barboza (146)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Jacare Souza (186) vs André Muniz (186)
    Mike Grundy (146) vs Lando Vannata (146)
    Jamie Pickett (186) vs Jordan Wright (185)
    Andrea Lee (126) vs Antonina Shevchenko (125)

    Early Prelims (ESPN+, 5:30pm CT)

    Gina Mazany (126) vs Priscila Cachoeira (126)
    Kevin Aguilar (145) vs Tucker Lutz (146)
    Sean Soriano (156) vs Christos Giagos (156)

    *Bontorin missed the bantamweight limit by 1 pound and will be fined 20% of his purse

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • joephoto

    Prices are out, odds are up, lots to pick from, no big favorites, pretty wide open.

  • someclevername

    Posted by user Card on the Tapology page:

    Short Notice:

    Rogério Bontorin (in for Alex Perez 1 loss) vs. Matt Schnell
    Sean Soriano (in for Joel Alvarez 3 wins) vs. Christos Giagos

    Fight Camps:

    Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler – 7 weeks
    Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush – 8+ weeks
    Jack Hermansson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan – 7 weeks
    Katlyn Chookagian vs. Viviane Araujo – 8+ weeks
    Shane Burgos vs. Edson Barboza – 8+ weeks
    Jacare Souza vs. Andre Muniz – 6 weeks
    Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin – 2 weeks for Bontorin, 8+ for Schnell
    Lando Vannata vs. Mike Grundy – 5 weeks
    Andrea Lee vs. Antonina Shevchenko – 8+ weeks
    Jordan Wright vs. Jamie Pickett – 8+ weeks
    Gina Mazany vs. Priscila Cachoeira – 8+ weeks
    Kevin Aguilar vs. Tucker Lutz – 5 weeks
    Christos Giagos vs. Sean Soriano – 0 weeks for Soriano, 8+ for Giagos

  • someclevername

    @joephoto said...

    Prices are out, odds are up, lots to pick from, no big favorites, pretty wide open.

    Time to bring it home!

  • someclevername

    I guess Hermansson/Shahbazyan is off and moved to the May 22nd card. Boo.

  • CityBoy410

    @someclevername said...

    I guess Hermansson/Shahbazyan is off and moved to the May 22nd card. Boo.

    Let the bs begin.

  • thevogaman

    We think Giagios will be $9100 and Soriano $7100… or $9400 & $6800?!

    These are some ugly salaries for favorites.

  • CityBoy410

    I’m gonna have Soriano and Chandler together in one or two of my lineups, just because they training partners. Seems like a good strategy. Lol

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    We think Giagios will be $9100 and Soriano $7100… or $9400 & $6800?!

    These are some ugly salaries for favorites.

    I’m thinking Giagos will be $9400 since he is a bigger favorite than Mazany. It’s so strange that they’re the two highest favorites.. I guess it speaks to the competitiveness of the rest of the card. Lots of tough fights to call.

    Has Soriano improved at all since his last run in the UFC? I think Giagos will be a safe 90+, but don’t really see him with a wild 120 or so score.

    I don’t think I could ever take Mazany, so watch her put up a huge score.

    The other big salary is Antonina “The Other” Shevchenko (and I think she should use that as her nickname). The odds are moving in Lee’s direction. Lee could be a decent salary saver. I don’t see her putting up at huge score, but at $7,000 could get 80-90 with a decision win.

  • someclevername

    Me all week thinking about putting Cachoeira in my lineup

  • someclevername

    Giagos/Soriano finally added $9100/$7100

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Giagos/Soriano finally added $9100/$7100

    I find that price palatable. He should wrestle his way to a decision with a mid-90s score. The 3 most expensive fighters will be gone after the first 4 fights, so I’ll probably have a lot of lineups reserved for the late slate.

    I think there’s a chance Antonina has been improving her top and clinch game like her sister and is going to Khabib KGB Lee like she did to Lipski. If she’s the expensive fighter with the lowest ownership, then it might be worth getting to her over the other two 9k fighters.

  • factorial89

    wow i went to fight odds and the line movement on dariush is 46 per cent. i really like mike grundy as well.

  • thevogaman

    I’m just gonna say it.. the Beverly Hills Ninja is undervalued here and so is Edson Barboza.

    Jamie Pickett will just allow himself to get pieced up all fight just to not get finished.

    And I think Barboza is going to make Shane Burgos look really slow and reckless for long periods of time. It’ll look like the Hooker fight unless Burgos lands something big or is going to wrestle (and is really good at it… cause we haven’t seen it yet). I don’t understand why Edson is the dog or why the line moved that way.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    And I think Barboza is going to make Shane Burgos look really slow and reckless for long periods of time. It’ll look like the Hooker fight unless Burgos lands something big or is going to wrestle (and is really good at it… cause we haven’t seen it yet). I don’t understand why Edson is the dog or why the line moved that way.

    I concur.

    I do like Burgos’ volume/pressure, and he’s a tough guy, but got damn is he hittable. Holds them hands low too. Just a lot of openings for a striker like Edson. He does tend to slow down a bit, so if Burgos isn’t too beat up maybe he can take over late or something, but I feel like he gets dropped a lot. Hoping for another highlight reel KO for Barboza. Or, like you said, a one sided beatdown reminiscent of the Hooker fight.

  • someclevername

    I’m rolling w/my guy Benny, but I do. Have. Concerns. He should come out here and follow the Olives’ gameplan of taking Tony down and controlling him – I think he can do that. Tony has not been looking good. All the wars taking their toll and of course Father Time is undefeated yadda, yadda. Now, if the crowd is going wild (very likely) and Benny wants to engage in a firefight… that is when I start to get more concerned. Tony has the better cardio & chin. Tony is also legit insane, which is super useful in a firefight. Won’t be mad if Tony wins a swangin’ bangin’ crazy fight – that’ll be a win for every viewer I think – but I’m sticking w/Benny.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #76

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Anyone MME on dk? I have been playing 20 lineups so far and pretty much have broke even. Both the 50 cent & $1 contest are 150 max, so I am definitely at a disadvantage. Anyone have suggestions on how to build 20 lineups for MMA? Or should I like try to research and find good underdog targets?

    At the moment, I usually lock in 1-2 favorites and try to get a low cumulative ownership .

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    I find that price palatable. He should wrestle his way to a decision with a mid-90s score.

    I was halfway hoping that he would be $9,400 to get people off of him. Completely agree with the mid-90s score. All the other high priced fighters seem to carry more risk with less chance of hitting even 90.

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    I’m just gonna say it.. the Beverly Hills Ninja is undervalued here and so is Edson Barboza.

    Jamie Pickett will just allow himself to get pieced up all fight just to not get finished.

    I’m torn on the Beverly Hills Ninja fight. I agree that Pickett could allow himself to get pieced up, but is Wright smart enough to do it. And Wright seems to have a bit of a glass jaw where it won’t take much to finish him. I really hate taking either in this fight, but the winner should score well.

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    I do like Burgos’ volume/pressure, and he’s a tough guy, but got damn is he hittable. Holds them hands low too. Just a lot of openings for a striker like Edson. He does tend to slow down a bit, so if Burgos isn’t too beat up maybe he can take over late or something, but I feel like he gets dropped a lot. Hoping for another highlight reel KO for Barboza. Or, like you said, a one sided beatdown reminiscent of the Hooker fight.

    My prediction: Barboza wins the fight, Burgos wins the decision. This is going to be the fight we bitch about. Maybe it’s recency bias, but with Barboza’s fights against Ige and Felder, it seems the judges don’t like his style and he needs to decisively win to get a decision. Either that or get a finish which is entirely possible.

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    Now, if the crowd is going wild (very likely) and Benny wants to engage in a firefight… that is when I start to get more concerned. Tony has the better cardio & chin. Tony is also legit insane, which is super useful in a firefight. Won’t be mad if Tony wins a swangin’ bangin’ crazy fight – that’ll be a win for every viewer I think – but I’m sticking w/Benny.

    Dang it, now you’ve got me concerned. I hadn’t even factored in the crowd. I’m sticking with Benny too.

  • smonger19

    @jv21 said...

    Anyone MME on dk? I have been playing 20 lineups so far and pretty much have broke even. Both the 50 cent & $1 contest are 150 max, so I am definitely at a disadvantage. Anyone have suggestions on how to build 20 lineups for MMA? Or should I like try to research and find good underdog targets?

    At the moment, I usually lock in 1-2 favorites and try to get a low cumulative ownership .

    I usually do 1-2 single entry lineups, but I’ve been playing 20 lineups since the start of the year. Like you I’m pretty much breaking even that way. I play the 20 lineups in a $3 entry contest and generally finish +/- $10 either way. For me, it’s just something to have fun with in case my single entries tank early. My strategy for them is to take the 3-4 fighters that I like best in about 80-90% of my lineups each, then fill out the remaining spots with the fights I don’t have a good feeling about who will win, but know the winner will score high, either because of an early finish or high volume scoring. Usually I wind up with the underdogs in those fights because I’ve spent most of my money on my top 3-4 fighters. I’m no expert, but that’s what I do.

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    My prediction: Barboza wins the fight, Burgos wins the decision. This is going to be the fight we bitch about. Maybe it’s recency bias, but with Barboza’s fights against Ige and Felder, it seems the judges don’t like his style and he needs to decisively win to get a decision. Either that or get a finish which is entirely possible.

    Absolutely a concern that Barboza loses another decision cos Burgos does have a good style for the judges. He’s always coming forward and throwing. I think Barboza is going to hit him with something though – he dropped Ige and had him hurt badly. Ige is STUPID tough. Got that Hawaiian chin and was able to survive. I still think Barboza won that fight – I will die on that hill (also think he won the Felder fight, but whatever). Anyway, not that Burgos isn’t tough – he absolutely is – but he is getting dropped by everyone. Holobaugh dropped him. Kattar finished him. Emmett dropped him a couple times, but to be fair Emmett is a monster puncher. Idk, think this sets up well for Barboza but if he can’t turn off Burgos’ lights there’s always the chance that he loses a decision. Whatever happens, this is a strong contender for FOTN. Man, we have so many good fights on this card lol stoked!

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    Dang it, now you’ve got me concerned. I hadn’t even factored in the crowd. I’m sticking with Benny too.

    *During the recent Diego/Fabia drama, someone reminded me that Diego sat outside during TUF 1 trying to draw power from a thunderstorm. Maybe Tony draws power from a crowd? Honestly would not discount this. Still… Benny my guy. Unless he crawls to the scales tomorrow and looks like death… I’m taking him.

  • someclevername

    Bontorin missed by a pound, but everyone else made weight. Let’s goooooo

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