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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 158 / UFC on ESPN+16

    Saturday 9.14.19 – Rogers Arena – Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    ESPN+ Main Card – 7pm CDT

    Donald Cerrone (155.5) vs Justin Gaethje (155.5)
    Glover Teixeira (204.5) vs Nikita Krylov (205.5)
    Todd Duffee (244.5) vs Jeff Hughes (251)
    Michel Pereira (172)* vs Tristan Connelly (169.5)
    Uriah Hall (184) vs Antonio Carlos Junior (185.5)
    Misha Cirkunov (205.5) vs Jimmy Crute (205)

    ESPN+ Prelims – 4pm CDT

    Marcin Tybura (257.5) vs Augusto Sakai (258)
    Cole Smith (135) vs Miles Johns (135.5)
    Brad Katona (135) vs Hunter Azure (135.5)
    Chas Skelly (146) vs Jordan Griffin (145)
    Louis Smolka (135.5) vs Ryan MacDonald (135.5)
    Kyle Prepolec (155) vs Austin Hubbard (156)

    Sanchez vs Vettori OFF

    *Pereira missed the welterweight limit on his first attempt and was given one additional hour to make weight. However, he chose not to cut additional weight and will be fined 20 percent of his purse, which goes to Connelly. – MMA Junkie

  • iron_tactics

    Hearing that Sanchez v Vettori is out

  • someclevername

    @iron_tactics said...

    Hearing that Sanchez v Vettori is out

    Son of a…

  • iron_tactics

    @someclevername said...

    Son of a…

    I offered to step in but UFC just

  • thevogaman

    First card I can recall without WMMA and only Azure, Johns, and Connelly debuting; and the prior two have fought on DWCS. Kind of refreshing not having to watch cell phone footage of really low-level shit.

    Right now I’m trying to target both sides of Cerrone/Gaethje, Teixeira/Krylov, Duffee/Hughes, and Cirkunov/Crute. Still need to tape Connelly; probably not going there, but if he’s decent enough, it allows me to get under the field on Pereira. Kind of liking Sakai here too.

    Feels like Glover/Krylov and Cirkunov/Crute are essentially the same matchup. I’m leaning more towards Cirkunov to smother and submit Crute and Krylov to get the KO.

  • gje627

    Useless, but interesting ….

    UFC on ESPN Plus 16 Fun Facts

    108,221 possible lineups at or under the DK $50,000 salary cap
    45,528 possible lineups only including lineups with zero fight stacks (no instances of two fighters from the same fight in the same lineup) at or under the DK $50,000 salary cap

    Thinking about entering a single-bullet in a large GPP? Or even a small one? … With zero fight stacks …. Okay, here are the highest probabilities (most are much lower) that your lineup is “perfect” (six-for-six) in any one of the following categories:

    — Winning: 3.1557%
    — Winning Inside the Distance: 0.6858%
    — Winning Inside the Distance – Round 1: 0.0229%
    — Winning Inside the Distance – TKO/KO: 0.1840%
    — Winning Inside the Distance – Submission: 0.0458%

    Of the five probability categories, number of times each fighter appears in a lineup with said highest probability (e.g. Glover Teixera appears in the highest probability lineup in four of five categories above).

    — Antonio Carlos Junior (4)
    — Glover Teixeira (4)
    — Michel Pereira (4)
    — Jimmy Crute (3)
    — Todd Duffee (3)
    — Donald Cerrone (2)
    — Jordan Griffin (2)
    — Augusto Sakai (1)
    — Chas Skelly (1)
    — Cole Smith (1)
    — Justin Gaethje (1)
    — Kyle Prepolec (1)
    — Louis Smolka (1)
    — Misha Cirkunov (1)
    — Uriah Hall (1)
    — All Remaining Fighters Combined (0)

    Note: Betting odds, in this case 5Dimes used as a proxy for true probability due to the significant problems with UFC/MMA data (i.e., small number of fight samples … debut fighters, fighters who have only fought once or twice … lack of common opponents … etc.). With that said, betting odds where dollars or units bet are mathematically the single-best predictor of fight outcomes given the lack of other, “better” data. Finally, please do not interpret fighters named above as “best” fighters on the card, as inclusion in “best probability” categories is almost as much a function of DK salary cap limitations as much as it is expected performance …. Still … some of the higher percentage-owned fighters are likely on this list; particularly the higher-priced fighters where performance expectations allow said fighter to be included in a “top” lineup in any particular category.

  • NewMike

    Does anyone know the best way to build a database of fighters? I’m just looking to make something basic, but using Word to do it, just seems like a huge waste of energy.

    I’ve decided to listen to some big touts and go all in on the first 3 fights. I think Texeira and Cerrone will be great value and they both have paths to victory. Duffee is sounding like a train wreck

    The Hall/Carlos Jr fight is a good fight to target I think as well. Or Jr could get tired and it’s a boring shadow boxing fight for the last 8-10 minutes after Jr blows his gas tank

    Sakai and Skelly are live dogs, Tybura just isn’t panning out

  • someclevername

    I’m taking Cowboy (too cheap) & Smolllka (high ceiling)* – flip flopping on several others. Leaning Glover & Crute but man, Misha was looking mighty big during the stare downs. Pereira via spinning sh*t and it best be in round number 1 for $9500.

    *Shoeface right there as well but can’t take everyone. Went to check his dk point history again and when I hit edit it brings up baseball. Interesting. I’ve been sick so maybe hallucinating this.

  • NewMike

    Pereira almost took himself out at the weigh ins

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    Pereira almost took himself out at the weigh ins

    Breaks his leg in the 1st round backflipping off of the cage, Connelly gets the win & I hit another square on the, “ways to lose in mma dfs” bingo card.

  • jki7p6

    My favorite lineup is 100 short every time :(
    Like Hubbard as the favorite with his chin/cardio and really like Azure in style against Katona.
    Figuring Homer Simpson for the KO in the main.

    edit: early morning goof

  • someclevername

    @jki7p6 said...

    Like Hubbard as the favorite with his chin/cardio

    I am not playing Hubbard but yeah, he’s got a hell of a chin. Or at least he did against Ramos – I seem to recall him taking some big bombs in that fight and still going.

    Do you have any thoughts on Cirkunov / Crute? I’m struggling with this one. I probably should be picking Misha here since I picked him against Walker (oops lol) but that chin is sketchy. Too much, too soon for Crute?

  • thevogaman

    Any ownership projections out there? (gje627?) My non-scientific approach has Teixiera and Azure as the chalk dogs (not including Cerrone). That seem right?

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Do you have any thoughts on Cirkunov / Crute?

    Know this wasn’t to me, but if ever a fight deserved pick em odds this is it. I think you should play 2 this week and do both.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Know this wasn’t to me, but if ever a fight deserved pick em odds this is it. I think you should play 2 this week and do both.

    I don’t disagree. All 4 fights you said you’re targeting both sides of are tough to take a stand on with a single bullet but that’s just how I roll lol. I’m a glutton for punishment.

  • callmetouch

    This is the week. Ya’ll can either join me or get out of my way

  • jki7p6

    @someclevername said...

    Do you have any thoughts on Cirkunov / Crute

    Staying away with my bullet lineup for exact reasoning vogaman and you are using. Toughest fight on card to figure.

  • someclevername

    @callmetouch said...

    This is the week. Ya’ll can either join me or get out of my way

    +1 for that gif – lol, who you got?

  • callmetouch

    @someclevername said...

    +1 for that gif – lol, who you got?

    I got me getting 1st, who you got?

  • someclevername

    @callmetouch said...

    I got me getting 1st, who you got?

    Well, if I’m being perfectly honest, I got me finishing right outside the cash line.

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    Any ownership projections out there? (gje627?) My non-scientific approach has Teixiera and Azure as the chalk dogs (not including Cerrone). That seem right?

    I agree on your dog chalks and would add Prepolec to your list. I love Teixiera but at the same time I’m scared to death of Krylov. Personally, I’m a little higher than most people here on Misha over Crute, but I wouldn’t be surprised either way. My worry in this one is while I think Misha wins, Crute is far more likely than Misha to end the fight early and score the big points so this upside alone probably makes him worth the extra $200. Also agree that if Connelly survives the first round, Pereira loses all his value at his salary. Really like Smolka.

    The conclusion?

    I agree with everything everyone here has already said and have nothing new to offer, meaning my first paragraph was a complete waste of space.

  • bigcrip

    smolka is going to score so much for this dude

  • callmetouch

    @bigcrip said...

    smolka is going to score so much for this dude

    dont jinx it! Mcdonald is tall!

  • NewMike

    Have you guys seen Duffee now vs Duffee 4 years ago? It’s like me now vs me in my 20s

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    Have you guys seen Duffee now vs Duffee 4 years ago? It’s like me now vs me in my 20s

    I hope he traded some of that muscle for a chin

  • NewMike

    @thevogaman said...

    Any ownership projections out there? (gje627?) My non-scientific approach has Teixiera and Azure as the chalk dogs (not including Cerrone). That seem right?

    I would think Sakai is a pretty chalky dog, he’s the betting fave now and lot’s of people are predicting a TKO. Also Tybura came in heavier than usual, not sure if it’s muscle or fries though.

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