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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 159 / UFC on ESPN+ 17

    Saturday 9.21.19 – Mexico City Arena – Mexico City, Mexico

    ESPN+ Main Card – 7pm CDT

    Yair Rodriguez (145) vs Jeremy Stephens (145)
    Alexa Grasso (116) vs Carla Esparza (115)
    Askar Askarov (125) vs Brandon Moreno (124)
    Irene Aldana (135) vs Vanessa Melo (140)*
    Martin Bravo (144) vs Steven Peterson (146)

    ESPN+ Prelims – 4pm CDT

    Jose Quinonez (134) vs Carlos Huachin (136)
    Kyle Nelson (146) vs Polo Reyes (145)
    Angela Hill (115) vs Ariane Carnelossi (112)
    Sergio Pettis (124) vs Tyson Nam (126)
    Vinicius Moreira (206) vs Paul Craig (206)
    Sijara Eubanks (135) vs Bethe Correia (136)
    Claudio Puelles (155) vs Marcos Mariano (154)

    *Melo missed weight and will be fined 30 percent of her fight purse.

  • someclevername

    Stephens to avenge my saltiness from Yair landing an up elbow on KZ with one second left.

    Initial lean is Brandon Moreno, but I have to find out more about Askar Askarov (someclevername someclevernameov – I like it, rolls off the tongue for sure).

    The return of “Superman Tat”! The return of Paul Craig!

    Like Nelson but this elevation will be a thing…his cardio is not the best.

    Sergio Pettis at $9300 – what kind of world are we living in here?

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Sergio Pettis at $9300 – what kind of world are we living in here?

    How ‘bout the fact that I’m considering playing either Bearjew or Vinicius Moreira at 7.9k/8.3k!? This card is not very DK friendly at all.

  • callmetouch

    @thevogaman said...

    How ‘bout the fact that I’m considering playing either Bearjew or Vinicius Moreira at 7.9k/8.3k!? This card is not very DK friendly at all.

    Disgusting. Can we go back to last week? I want to roster Misha and Smolka again

  • thevogaman

    With literally no one on this card being a strong play, I would imagine the ownership should be spread out pretty evenly. Other than the main event, there’s almost no one on the entire card that I would normally be playing.

    Also, (not to be rude, but) if it was revealed that this Ariane Carnelossi was born a man, would anyone be surprised?

  • someclevername

    Melo taking Dern’s advice on how to cut weight.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Other than the main event, there’s almost no one on the entire card that I would normally be playing.

    Yeah, it’s pretty sketchy.

  • thevogaman

    Was going to play lightly, but I’m thinking there might be some overlay today based purely on how bad this card appears for GPP… so fuck it I’m in.

    Moreira/Craig and main event I’ll be all in on and mostly fade Pettis/Nam, Bethe, and Mariano. The rest seems pretty wide open. Anybody got any strong reads for this card?

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    Moreira/Craig and main event I’ll be all in on and mostly fade Pettis/Nam, Bethe, and Mariano.

    Agree with everything here, with one exception (okay maybe not an exception but more of a caveat) ….

    That being ….

    I would be extremely careful going “all-in” on both sides of Moreira/Craig ….

    Could be a clench-fest and unless one of these guys gets a sub, the decision winner will likely have the lowest fantasy point total of any of the winners on the card tonight. Even with a sub finish by either one, there still aren’t a ton of fantasy points likely to be had …. E.g. in Craig’s last two wins, he won both by submission, scoring a whopping 67 fantasy points in one fight and an even more impressive 68 fantasy points in the other !!! …. Yes, this isn’t a typo, i.e. these were not decision wins ….

    Yes, both fighters are moderately priced, but think there is a high likelihood there will be one or two lower-priced value dogs on this card who win and score “Plenty-O’ fantasy points” to beat the likely 65 to 80 fantasy point ceiling of both Moreira and Craig.

    With that said, not sure how many lineups I’m playing yet, and while heavy on both fighters … I certainly will not be 100% on the fight as a whole since it could be a snooze-fest ….

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    I would be extremely careful going “all-in” on both sides of Moreira/Craig ….

    Yeah, good call. I’m kind of hedging my exposure around right now and getting away from it more. Down to like 75% exposure.

    Just saying…. I dont think either guy has ever gone to a decision before.

  • mtdurham

    Man this card sucks

  • callmetouch

    4 wmma fights on this one. What can go wrong? 2 of which are on the main card.

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, good call. I’m kind of hedging my exposure around right now and getting away from it more. Down to like 75% exposure.

    Just saying…. I dont think either guy has ever gone to a decision before.

    Absolutely agree, that’s why I will be heavy on both but not 100%.

    Haven’t really studied each fighter’s prior fights, but the worry here is they both have the same/similar ground-only styles, meaning both may be too careful trying to get to the mat. If this is the case, a lot of cage clenches seems to be a likely scenario.

    Assuming this fights ends with a sub for either fighter, if it finally happens in the 3rd round there seems to be a strong possibility that both fighters will have accumulated almost zero fantasy points up to that point. Thus, even with a sub, if there are enough other stoppages on the card, being on the optimal lineup may still be difficult. Thus we may be betting on a 1st or 2nd round to pay off.

  • thevogaman

    I kind of envision a standup fight too, but luckily neither guy has a particularly good chin or really any head movement at all. Hoping for multiple knockdowns.

    How often do you get to see the two worst fighters in their division square off? Plus with the altitude, I think they both could get very, very tired… and one of them just gives up.

    The risk is we see a lot of cage clinching and 0 output if it gets out of the 1st.

    Liking Eubanks a lot here right now too.

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    I kind of envision a standup fight too, but luckily neither guy has a particularly good chin or really any head movement at all. Hoping for multiple knockdowns.

    How often do you get to see the two worst fighters in their division square off? Plus with the altitude, I think they both could get very, very tired… and one of them just gives up.

    The risk is we see a lot of cage clinching and 0 output if it gets out of the 1st.

    Liking Eubanks a lot here right now too.

    Paragraph-by-paragraph reply ….

    Agree
    Agree
    Agree
    Agree

    :)

  • callmetouch

    Hill’s record is so bad in the ufc it makes me want to take Carnelossi

  • thevogaman

    @callmetouch said...

    Hill’s record is so bad in the ufc it makes me want to take Carnelossi

    I’m doing a little of both. It seems like debuting WMMA dogs win all the time. I dont worry about Hill getting finished against strikers usually, but I expect Carnelossi to pressure as long as her cardio holds up and get the decision.

    I kind of like this fight better than Grasso/Esparza and I think it will have lower ownership.

  • callmetouch

    @thevogaman said...

    I’m doing a little of both. It seems like debuting WMMA dogs win all the time. I dont worry about Hill getting finished against strikers usually, but I expect Carnelossi to pressure as long as her cardio holds up and get the decision.

    I kind of like this fight better than Grasso/Esparza and I think it will have lower ownership.

    Or fade both? I want to pick Grasso but Esparza has the takedown upside.

  • gje627

    Any MME guys with the cajones to go 100% Claudio Puelles? This morning his no vig win % went over 75% and his ITD % over 60% and he’s only the 4th most expensive fighter on the card ….

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    100% Claudio Puelles?

    I’m close to it. 1st rd submissions score pretty well, but I had to fade it some places too.

    I think Mariano will be so low owned that nobody with him also gets all the other 5 positions right, so the upset doesnt kill you.

    Edit: Though I’m only MME in the miniMAX.

  • Krnich

    @gje627 said...

    Any MME guys with the cajones to go 100% Claudio Puelles? This morning his no vig win % went over 75% and his ITD % over 60% and he’s only the 4th most expensive fighter on the card ….

    I have him 100% across 8 lineups right now so I hope the odds are correct. That’s not a lot of lineups compared to most but I’m still taking that chance.

    Also thank you everyone for all in insights in this forum I’m mostly a lurker not a poster but I always appreciate the info

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    I’m close to it. 1st rd submissions score pretty well, but I had to fade it some places too.

    I think Mariano will be so low owned that nobody with him also gets all the other 5 positions right, so the upset doesnt kill you.

    Edit: Though I’m only MME in the miniMAX.

    Yeah, no way am I maxing the throwdown today …. Might not even put a lineup in. :(

    Also, combined, I’ll probably play only about 100 unique lineups. Been testing some new algorithms in Tennis (comparable to MMA since every “match” is a pair of players) … so don’t want to get crazy.

  • gje627

    @Krnich said...

    I have him 100% across 8 lineups right now so I hope the odds are correct. That’s not a lot of lineups compared to most but I’m still taking that chance.

    Also thank you everyone for all in insights in this forum I’m mostly a lurker not a poster but I always appreciate the info

    Welcome !!!

    FYI — Rule of Thumb Look at all the user names with posts above …. Trust the advice of each and every one of them …. Except me !!! :(

  • Krnich

    @gje627 said...

    Welcome !!!

    FYI — Rule of Thumb Look at all the user names with posts above …. Trust the advice of each and every one of them …. Except me !!! :(

    I appreciate your info too, especially in nascar.

  • NewMike

    I think I will have a decent chunk (maybe 30%) of Nam, he has some TKO potentital and Pettis can’t finish a 2 bite brownie. He hasn’t scored over 80 points in over 3 years.

    Agree with Puelles being the best 9k fighter

  • gje627

    Even at only 7100, my new algorithm likes Bethe Correia a little too much? …. Or not?

    What to do about Peterson/Bravo?

    Never seen DK price two fighters identically, regardless of whether or not they were fighting one another ….

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