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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 160 / UFC on ESPN+ 18

    Saturday 9.28.19 – Royal Arena – Copenhagen, Denmark

    ESPN+ Main Card – 1pm CDT

    Jack Hermansson (185) vs Jared Cannonier (185)
    Mark Madsen (155) vs Danilo Belluardo (156)
    Gunnar Nelson (171) vs Gilbert Burns (171)
    Ion Cutelaba (205) vs Khalil Rountree Jr. (205)
    Michal Oleksiejczuk (205) vs Ovince Saint Preux (206)
    Nicolas Dalby (171) vs Alex Oliveira (171)

    ESPN+ Prelims – 10am CDT

    Alen Amedovski (185) vs John Phillips (186)
    Alessio Di Chirico (186) vs Makhmud Muradov (185)
    Siyar Bahadurzada (171) vs Ismail Naurdiev (171)
    Brandon Davis (146) vs Giga Chikadze (146)
    Macy Chiasson (136) vs Lina Lansberg (136)
    Marc Diakiese (155) vs Lando Vannata (155)
    Jack Shore (135) vs Nohelin Hernandez (136)

  • someclevername

    No research yet, but Shore being a favorite warranted? Hernandez had moments in that Chito Vera fight.

    Oh G – I’m going to get sucked into playing John Phillips again, I just know it.

    He can absolutely win and score bonkers points but, as a rule, I don’t play Brazilian Cowboy as a favorite anymore. His low fight IQ can always keep the other guy in it and have you yelling at the tv and spilling good beer.

    I’m over OSP and “Lord” Michal looks so promising. That is exactly when he strikes – OSP via Von “Preux” incoming.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I’m over OSP and “Lord” Michal looks so promising. That is exactly when he strikes – OSP via Von “Preux” incoming.

    I can see it, but man I dont know… just see OSP being helplessly gassed by the 2nd round and getting finished.

    There are a lot of good fights on this card that I’m probably fading because of how I think they play out. Gunni/Burns and Lando/Diakese stand out as being close decisions that probably dont win you the tournament.

    Still need to tape a lot of these guys though.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I can see it, but man I dont know… just see OSP being helplessly gassed by the 2nd round and getting finished.

    Oh yeah, lol, I was just kidding – I am not backing OSP at all. “Lord” Michal for me the whole way – by finish. But…that’s when he strikes lol

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    But…that’s when he strikes lol

    It’s official. If we’re both on him (Oleksiejczuk), it’s an OSP night.

    I like stating really obvious things on here, so… we’re going to probably want heavy exposure to Roundtree/Cutelaba, OSP/Oleksiejczuk, and the main event.

  • NewMike

    Since I’m such a nice guy I’ll pick OSP and guarantee you both the W.

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    Since I’m such a nice guy I’ll pick OSP and guarantee you both the W.

    You’re a good egg, Mike.

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    Since I’m such a nice guy I’ll pick OSP and guarantee you both the W.

    Thanks man! Taking one for the team.

  • callmetouch

    Upset night!

  • callmetouch

    Does anyone know if you can rewatch the entire event on the espn app after the events over?

  • thevogaman

    @callmetouch said...

    Does anyone know if you can rewatch the entire event on the espn app after the events over?

    No clue; gave up on ESPN+ due to the quality. So who those upsets you feeling?

    Seems like all the dogs are relatively live here, but at the same time nobody really stands out either. Don’t like Lansberg, though. Macy is too much of a brute; think it goes very similar to Lansberg/Aspen Ladd.

  • callmetouch

    @thevogaman said...

    No clue; gave up on ESPN+ due to the quality. So who those upsets you feeling?

    Seems like all the dogs are relatively live here, but at the same time nobody really stands out either. Don’t like Lansberg, though. Macy is too much of a brute; think it goes very similar to Lansberg/Aspen Ladd.

    So who those upsets you feeling?
    There’s like 4 im keeping my eye on. Cannonier is live if he can defend the TD and unleash a blow.

  • someclevername

    @callmetouch said...

    Does anyone know if you can rewatch the entire event on the espn app after the events over?

    Should be there under “On Demand”

  • someclevername

    You guys see DK is testing out Captain mode for mma? I got an email yesterday – calling it Rambo lol

    *Did they run a contest like this last week and I missed it?

  • thevogaman

    I saw Rambo mode last week in the main menu where it said Classic mode or Rambo mode, but when I clicked on it nothing happened. This was on the DK app.

  • someclevername

    Have no doubt that I would’ve ended up with Stephens as my Captain

  • thevogaman

    Honestly I’m still tilted about that main event. No Contests have cost me some decent money the past 2 weeks.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Honestly I’m still tilted about that main event. No Contests have cost me some decent money the past 2 weeks.

    I was just fighting for a min cash so I can only imagine how tilting it was for you & others with more on the line. I still feel bad for the person who had 2 lineups within striking distance with both sides of the ME covered. Legendary bad beat. And losing money 2 weeks in a row on No Contests – it ain’t right lol. I hope you bink a big one this week!

  • thevogaman

    Anyone decided on Madsen? Dude reminds me of early Pride Fedor the way he closes distance with bombs and then just immediately controls the opponent in the clinch. I think I’ll be like 80%. 1st round finish with multiple takedowns is what I’m hoping for.

  • callmetouch

    @thevogaman said...

    Anyone decided on Madsen? Dude reminds me of early Pride Fedor the way he closes distance with bombs and then just immediately controls the opponent in the clinch. I think I’ll be like 80%. 1st round finish with multiple takedowns is what I’m hoping for.

    At 9500? Oh boy. That’s you hoping Macy doesn’t outscore him

  • thevogaman

    @callmetouch said...

    At 9500? Oh boy. That’s you hoping Macy doesn’t outscore him

    Yeah, but I can get to both of them in my Cannonier lineups. Of course the problem is, I favor Hermansson, and a lineup stacking all 3 looks perilous at best. 80% is probably a stretch, but still I’m impressed with him and I think Lansberg has a better chance of pulling the upset or surviving to a decision loss than Belluardo does. Curious to watch some pods and read up a little more to gauge ownership better.

    Also, quietly hoping for some overlay again with an 11:00 am start. DK seems to be shrinking the contest sizes though since we’ve been getting overlay.

  • jki7p6

    @someclevername said...

    You guys see DK is testing out Captain mode for mma? I got an email yesterday – calling it Rambo lol

    *Did they run a contest like this last week and I missed it?

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/76464618

    Liked it, had a lousy lineup and cashed hah

  • jki7p6

    @thevogaman said...

    Anyone decided on Madsen? Dude reminds me of early Pride Fedor the way he closes distance with bombs and then just immediately controls the opponent in the clinch. I think I’ll be like 80%. 1st round finish with multiple takedowns is what I’m hoping for.

    Didn’t want to pick Madsen, price is high and chance for decision is higher than I would like (his baseline as a fighter) but came to same conclusion as you on Belluardo against him – think there’s no way he avoids close distance and is severely outclassed once Madsen grabs him waist up. Basing my picks around him (probably going Madsen/Chiasson/Cannonier routes unless last minute tinker).

  • thevogaman

    Shore, Davis, and Muradov are the wild cards in the favorites category to me. Think they’re all lower-owned and don’t think any of them break the slate, but the first two could win by sub and no clue what to expect from the latter. I’ll probably be fading all 3.

    Most lineups, I think I’m going to be favoring the main card to the prelims (4 to 2).

  • NewMike

    There’s quite a lot of hype around Shore, he might have fairly high ownership. What do you guys consider low ownership, I’m thinking anything below 20%, although some weeks that could be almost 1/2 the fighters.

    I’m still on the fence a bit about Madsen, because I think he will have ownership around 50-55% and there is a good chance he could just win a 30-25 and not score enough, but still clearly dominate, because he doesn’t want to take any risks in his home country. But, also he might just want to smash the guy because he’s at home and at 35 years, he probably doesn’t have many fights ahead of him and this could be his biggest stage.

    This seems like one of those weeks where I should focus on the mid tier.

    And of course 100% on OSP, most likely by Von Flue

  • gje627

    @NewMike said...

    There’s quite a lot of hype around Shore, he might have fairly high ownership. What do you guys consider low ownership, I’m thinking anything below 20%, although some weeks that could be almost 1/2 the fighters.

    I’m still on the fence a bit about Madsen, because I think he will have ownership around 50-55% and there is a good chance he could just win a 30-25 and not score enough, but still clearly dominate, because he doesn’t want to take any risks in his home country. But, also he might just want to smash the guy because he’s at home and at 35 years, he probably doesn’t have many fights ahead of him and this could be his biggest stage.

    This seems like one of those weeks where I should focus on the mid tier.

    And of course 100% on OSP, most likely by Von Flue

    Damn Dude … did you break into my computer and steal my numbers?

    Agree with absolutely everything you say here … with one notable exception … that being 100% on OSP.

    ….

    On another subject …. I “lurk” online to find people smarter than me (yeah, not hard to find I know … ha … ha … ha) and found a mathematics professor with an expertise in Combinatorics – Combinatorial Optimization (i.e. for our purposes “how to put together the best groups of elements given the individual characteristics of each element … i.e. “how to build lineups”) ….

    As I do …. I found her contact info and emailed her … and she replied with a real cool formula …. Using the formula I created a C++ algorithm and plugged into my multi-functional builder/optimizer for the recommended lineup construction for tomorrow …. Very interesting !!!

    I’ll post some things in a little bit … but here’s a hint ….

    Pretty much what NewMike said … with somewhat less exposure on OSP … and a “little” twist.

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