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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 168 / UFC on ESPN+ 26

    Saturday, February 22, 2020 – Spark Arena – Auckland, New Zealand

    ESPN+ Main Card – 6pm CT

    Paul Felder (155.5) vs Dan Hooker (156)
    Jimmy Crute (206) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (206)
    Karolina Kowalkiewicz (115.5) vs Xiaonan Yan (116)
    Ben Sosoli (264) vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima (257)
    Brad Riddell (154.5) vs Magomed Mustafaev (156)

    ESPN+ Prelims – 3pm CT

    Kevin Aguilar (145.5) vs Zubaira Tukhugov (145)
    Jalin Turner (155.5) vs Joshua Culibao (155.5)
    Jake Matthews (170.5) vs Emil Meek (171)
    Callan Potter (170.5) vs Kenan Song (171)
    Kai Kara-France (125.5) vs Tyson Nam (125)
    Loma Lookboonmee (115) vs Angela Hill (115)
    Priscila Cachoeira (126) vs Shana Dobson (125.5)

  • thevogaman

    Pitolo/Sato is off, which is fine by me. I was getting there too much and it was probably going to a decision.

    I feel pretty confident that the Crute/Lord Michal and Rogerio de Lima/Sosoli winners will be on the optimal lineup so I’ve been starting there. Both similar fights where I like de Lima to win by 1st round stoppage or gas and be finished in the 2nd… and basicaly the same for Lord Michal.

  • someclevername

    Someone on here once said de Lima looked like Patrick Star and now I can’t unsee it – still makes me laugh. Patrick Star FTW

    Ahh, Lord Michal gassed and got Von Preux’d on one of the rare nights the rest of my lineup was fire. I’m not bitter though (it was such a good lineup) so I’ll pick Michal again. I think he can get it done and hopefully he really can this time.

    I’m taking Mustafaev & hoping for an early finish as well.

    This main event has top quality nickname game – they are both so insanely tough, going to be a good one.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I’m taking Mustafaev & hoping for an early finish as well.

    Same on Mustafaev… that’s a bad man right there… and Riddell is actually good, too. I just think Mustafaev catches him at some point.

    I think one of Song/Yan loses here, too. Probably Kenan Song. He’s not very good. Potter could make it very ugly and honestly, he’s not quite as bad as I thought he was.

    Jalin Turner should beat Culibao on size alone, and at 8.8k, he shouldn’t have much trouble paying off his salary, but I think Culibao is the better fighter. Obviously this is up a weight class, (maybe 2) so Turner could get a TKO or sub, but I’m at like 20% Culibao (45% Turner).

  • iron_tactics

    @thevogaman said...

    Same on Mustafaev… that’s a bad man right there… and Riddell is actually good, too. I just think Mustafaev catches him at some point.

    I think one of Song/Yan loses here, too. Probably Kenan Song. He’s not very good. Potter could make it very ugly and honestly, he’s not quite as bad as I thought he was.

    Jalin Turner should beat Culibao on size alone, and at 8.8k, he shouldn’t have much trouble paying off his salary, but I think Culibao is the better fighter. Obviously this is up a weight class, (maybe 2) so Turner could get a TKO or sub, but I’m at like 20% Culibao (45% Turner).

    It’s strange when I listened podcasts. The reason is always well Mullarkey dropped him in the third, Mullarkey of all people who isn’t known for power. But I look at his fight history and there’s 4 straight TKO wins leading up to Riddell. I get that Mustafeav auto KOd another strike specialist with Fizeiv but that was his first walk in the Octagon, could easily of been jitters and I think it was. Not saying Mustafaev can’t KO Riddell, just that I don’t think it’s as high a possibility as people are implying.

  • thevogaman

    @iron_tactics said...

    Not saying Mustafaev can’t KO Riddell, just that I don’t think it’s as high a possibility as people are implying.

    Yeah, the Mullarkey fight was interesting. Riddell was winning the whole time but then every time they brawled and just started bombing on each other, it seemed like Riddell was the one getting hurt. Mustafaev has a pretty low output in general so Riddell would be smart to play it safe, so it could be a fight worth being under the field on.

    KKF fight is interesting too. He should cruise to a kickboxing range decision with a lot of strikes, but I’m not confident he can pay off that salary without a finish.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I think one of Song/Yan loses here, too. Probably Kenan Song. He’s not very good. Potter could make it very ugly and honestly, he’s not quite as bad as I thought he was.

    Jalin Turner should beat Culibao on size alone, and at 8.8k, he shouldn’t have much trouble paying off his salary, but I think Culibao is the better fighter. Obviously this is up a weight class, (maybe 2) so Turner could get a TKO or sub, but I’m at like 20% Culibao (45% Turner).

    Yeah, I can’t pay $9k for Song. He may very well come out and starch Potter (like Coconut Bombz was supposed to… f that guy), but I’m going another way.

    I have Turner – he makes me a little nervous, but as you said he should beat him on size alone. Josh is what a FW and Turner is a big ass LW and a finisher and Josh is on short notice. I mean, if “The Tarantula” follows up his horrible performance against Frevola with a loss here with all of these things in his favor…I don’t know what to tell him. Maybe become a spider wrangler for tv/movies or something.

  • iron_tactics

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, the Mullarkey fight was interesting. Riddell was winning the whole time but then every time they brawled and just started bombing on each other, it seemed like Riddell was the one getting hurt. Mustafaev has a pretty low output in general so Riddell would be smart to play it safe, so it could be a fight worth being under the field on.

    KKF fight is interesting too. He should cruise to a kickboxing range decision with a lot of strikes, but I’m not confident he can pay off that salary without a finish.

    KKF should win the decision but I can see a Nam KO too. The question is, does Nam get tooled and get the KO at rd 3 for like 50 points? Or can he get it in Rd1? I’m only doing 5 lineups so I don’t know if I even want to roll the dice on that because I think the highest probability is that KKF gets the dec win.

  • iron_tactics

    @someclevername said...

    Yeah, I can’t pay $9k for Song. He may very well come out and starch Potter (like Coconut Bombz was supposed to… f that guy), but I’m going another way.

    I have Turner – he makes me a little nervous, but as you said he should beat him on size alone. Josh is what a FW and Turner is a big ass LW and a finisher and Josh is on short notice. I mean, if “The Tarantula” follows up his horrible performance against Frevola with a loss here with all of these things in his favor…I don’t know what to tell him. Maybe become a spider wrangler for tv/movies or something.

    And Culibao had 3 weeks notice I believe.

  • thevogaman

    What do you guys think about Loma? I think she’ll be popular because of her salary/line value… but I also think she probably loses a close decision.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    What do you guys think about Loma? I think she’ll be popular because of her salary/line value… but I also think she probably loses a close decision.

    I want no parts of that fight lol.

  • someclevername

    @iron_tactics said...

    And Culibao had 3 weeks notice I believe.

    Oh was it 3 weeks, ok. I was thinking it was a little less than that but still. C’mon Turner, you gotta get this done lol.

  • iron_tactics

    I wamlnt to find out how long each fighter has been in Auckland

  • someclevername

    I’m going to play Meek. Valhalla 2.0, baby! Iron sharpens iron so his work with Diego’s “guru” surely going to pay off here.

    *Seriously though, hoping his work w/Gray Maynard pays off here. Never been that impressed w/Matthews and he can lay an egg from time to time. He also doesn’t relentlessly chain wrestle like Fabinski or Usman so maybe Meek can actually stay vertical for more than 30 seconds and make it interesting. We shall see.

  • someclevername

    @iron_tactics said...

    I get that Mustafeav auto KOd another strike specialist with Fizeiv but that was his first walk in the Octagon, could easily of been jitters and I think it was. Not saying Mustafaev can’t KO Riddell, just that I don’t think it’s as high a possibility as people are implying.

    If Mustafaev was like $9.3k or something I wouldn’t get there, but he’s pretty dangerous early on so I’ll take a shot on him for $8.4k. His gas tank is iffy though – I do favor Riddell the longer the fight goes.

    Yeah, it would be nice if there was a place to easily find out how long each fighter has been in country. I’m guessing you just have to go through all of their social media accounts? Maybe I should get more social media accounts.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    maybe Meek can actually stay vertical for more than 30 seconds and make it interesting. We shall see.

    Yeah, I don’t think Mathews tries to wrestle as much as he should here… plus he’s kind of flakey anyways. Meek is live.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, I don’t think Mathews tries to wrestle as much as he should here… plus he’s kind of flakey anyways. Meek is live.

  • GoldenWolf87

    @thevogaman said...

    Same on Mustafaev… that’s a bad man right there… and Riddell is actually good, too. I just think Mustafaev catches him at some point.

    I think one of Song/Yan loses here, too. Probably Kenan Song. He’s not very good. Potter could make it very ugly and honestly, he’s not quite as bad as I thought he was.

    Jalin Turner should beat Culibao on size alone, and at 8.8k, he shouldn’t have much trouble paying off his salary, but I think Culibao is the better fighter. Obviously this is up a weight class, (maybe 2) so Turner could get a TKO or sub, but I’m at like 20% Culibao (45% Turner).

    We shall see about that one but today i am giving underdogs a chance.

    “Jalin Turner should beat Culibao “
    He should be able to beat it all matters where mentally Turner is.

  • traviswhite

    Culibao has a sparring partner that use to train with Turner. He is also sparing with someone who is 6’8”. Take that how you want it. Just thought I would share. Should be a good fight

  • iron_tactics

    Wow, Tyson Nam fought Marlon Moraes in WSOF.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyhZxI1091U

  • iron_tactics

    @traviswhite said...

    Culibao has a sparring partner that use to train with Turner. He is also sparing with someone who is 6’8”. Take that how you want it. Just thought I would share. Should be a good fight

    I MIGHT go 100% Turner

  • thevogaman

    His salary fits so easily but damn, all-in is a pretty bold play.

  • iron_tactics

    @thevogaman said...

    His salary fits so easily but damn, all-in is a pretty bold play.

    I wasn’t sure but I’m pretty damn sure after watching his tape. It’s MMA so yeah, ANYTHING can happen. But in all honesty, if Turner drops this fight that’s probably it for him man, no reason he should lose this.

  • smonger19

    @iron_tactics said...

    I wasn’t sure but I’m pretty damn sure after watching his tape. It’s MMA so yeah, ANYTHING can happen. But in all honesty, if Turner drops this fight that’s probably it for him man, no reason he should lose this.

    Well, this shouldn’t make you feel any better about it, but I went all-in on Turner too. Only made 3 lineups this week.

  • iron_tactics

    @smonger19 said...

    Well, this shouldn’t make you feel any better about it, but I went all-in on Turner too. Only made 3 lineups this week.

    I have him in 4/5 but no Culibao in case there is some silly NC or something. But I did go 100% Felder.

  • jki7p6

    @smonger19 said...

    Well, this shouldn’t make you feel any better about it, but I went all-in on Turner too

    Ditto
    Turner fans screwed.

    Have Nam as my upset special (not comfortable because hes hittable/less technical but dreaming for a counter hit working).
    KKF owners, be happy.

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