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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 169/UFC on ESPN+ 27

    Saturday, February 29th, 2020 – Chartway Arena – Norfolk, Virginia

    ESPN+ Main Card – 7pm CT

    Joseph Benavidez (124.5) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (127.5)* – FLW Title Fight (only Benavidez can win title)
    Felicia Spencer (145) vs Zarah Fairn (146)
    Ion Cutelaba (204.5) vs Magomed Ankalaev (204.5)
    Megan Anderson (145) vs Norma Dumont (146)
    Grant Dawson (149.5)** vs Darrick Minner (145.5)

    ESPN+ Prelims – 4pm CT

    Gabriel Silva (135.5) vs Kyler Phillips (135.5)
    Brendan Allen (185.5) vs Tom Breese (185)
    Marcin Tybura (246) vs Serghei Spivac (234)
    Luis Pena (154.5) vs Steve Garcia (155)
    Jordan Griffin (145) vs TJ Brown (145.5)
    Aalon Cruz (145.5) vs Spike Carlyle (145.5)
    Sean Brady (170) vs Ismail Naurdiev (170)

    *Figueiredo missed weight by 2.5 pounds. In the event Figueiredo wins, FLW title will remain vacant
    **Dawson missed weight by 3.5 pounds.

  • thevogaman

    DK finally added Steve Garcia… $7k.

  • someclevername

    Damn it, Fig! Missed weight, fined 30% of his purse & can’t win the title now. Dawson misses too.

    https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2020/2/28/21157563/ufc-espn-27-weigh-in-results-video-deiveson-figueiredo-misses-weight-title-shot-jeopardy-mma-news

  • GoldenWolf87

    dang cant believe Fig missed weight i still hope the fight wont be scrapped.

  • thevogaman

    @GoldenWolf87 said...

    dang cant believe Fig missed weight i still hope the fight wont be scrapped.

    It’s still on for sure…. Fig just can’t win the belt. I’m increasing my Joe B shares.

  • someclevername

    I had Spivac until about 10 minutes ago when I realized that I had the wrong Sergei and he was not Sergei Pavlovich. Think I’ll pass on this fight now.

    Prob taking Cutelaba – I’m sure he’ll be popular, but he’s just too damn cheap for the upside. Hope that he doesn’t Mustafaev me and fights like he normally does…which is to say he’ll come out with his hair on fire in round 1 and try to take Ankalaev’s head off. After that, eh prob not great, but it’s worth a shot.

    *Megan Anderson fights are always a nightmare for single bullet players like myself – she either scores highly or her opponent does and you never know wtf you’re going to get from her. What’s the scuttlebutt on (and if her nickname isn’t “Bates” that’s a missed opportunity) Norma? If she has any kind of offensive wrestling and any kind of sub game, I could easily get there.

    Dawson best not lose after talking smack and then coming in over lol. I want to see 100+, young man!

    Figgy also missing weight kind of took the wind out of my sails for this fight. Joe B winning would, obviously, be much better for the flyweight division, but I still think Figgy catches him. I won’t be as bummed if he loses though. First time you miss weight and it’s for a chance to win the title…

  • GoldenWolf87

    @someclevername said...

    I had Spivac until about 10 minutes ago when I realized that I had the wrong Sergei and he was not Sergei Pavlovich. Think I’ll pass on this fight now.

    Prob taking Cutelaba – I’m sure he’ll be popular, but he’s just too damn cheap for the upside. Hope that he doesn’t Mustafaev me and fights like he normally does…which is to say he’ll come out with his hair on fire in round 1 and try to take Ankalaev’s head off. After that, eh prob not great, but it’s worth a shot.

    *Megan Anderson fights are always a nightmare for single bullet players like myself – she either scores highly or her opponent does and you never know wtf you’re going to get from her. What’s the scuttlebutt on (and if her nickname isn’t “Bates” that’s a missed opportunity) Norma? If she has any kind of offensive wrestling and any kind of sub game, I could easily get there.

    Dawson best not lose after talking smack and then coming in over lol. I want to see 100+, young man!

    Figgy also missing weight kind of took the wind out of my sails for this fight. Joe B winning would, obviously, be much better for the flyweight division, but I still think Figgy catches him. I won’t be as bummed if he loses though. First time you miss weight and it’s for a chance to win the title…

    The worst part of all this fight card it was a surprise title fight card for the main event i feel bad for Figgy.
    This weight cutting is hurting MMA/UFC fighters.

  • someclevername

    @GoldenWolf87 said...

    The worst part of all this fight card it was a surprise title fight card for the main event i feel bad for Figgy.
    This weight cutting is hurting MMA/UFC fighters.

    I agree that weight cutting is a larger issue for the sport, but Fig has been fighting at flyweight and he knew he had to make this weight. That’s on him for missing. I say that as a huge Figgy fan – I wanted to see him win this title, but he f’d it up. Have to be fair to Joe B. here – he made the weight and I won’t hate to see him finally hoist some gold if that is the way it plays out.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    What’s the scuttlebutt on (and if her nickname isn’t “Bates” that’s a missed opportunity) Norma? If she has any kind of offensive wrestling and any kind of sub game, I could easily get there.

    Hard to say. She’s going to be undersized, but i thought she looked relatively talented based on the limited tape I could find. Better BJJ at least…. possibly on some gear too. I’ll have probably 30% Norma and almost no Anderson.

    Edit: Some good nicknames… the Alpha Ginger and Downtown TJ Brown.

    Seems like there’s a really clear path for Carlyle to outwrestle and possibly submit Aalon Cruz. Cruz’s length is freaky, so it’ll be interesting if Spike can get inside and force the grappling.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Hard to say. She’s going to be undersized, but i thought she looked relatively talented based on the limited tape I could find. Better BJJ at least…. possibly on some gear too. I’ll have probably 30% Norma and almost no Anderson.

    Might be enough for me lol Megan is so bad and here she is as a big fav again.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Edit: Some good nicknames… the Alpha Ginger and Downtown TJ Brown.

    Seems like there’s a really clear path for Carlyle to outwrestle and possibly submit Aalon Cruz. Cruz’s length is freaky, so it’ll be interesting if Spike can get inside and force the grappling.

    Heard. “Alpha Ginger” (nice) is either going to be really good or really bad. Wasn’t super impressed with the fight I saw, but admittedly, only saw the one fight. If Spike fights the same way he did in that one, he’s getting ktfo. Possibly a knee right up the middle to his face area.

    Downtown TJ Brown lol I missed that one – Griffin is crazy. I lean Griffin here, but he has sh*t fight IQ and that is enough to keep anyone in it. I think I remember that TJ is chinny though – tough call.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Downtown TJ Brown lol I missed that one – Griffin is crazy. I lean Griffin here, but he has sh*t fight IQ and that is enough to keep anyone in it. I think I remember that TJ is chinny though – tough call.

    I think it’s a fight that will get ignored on DK despite potential for lots of scrambles and a finish. Jordan Griffin is due, but he always makes so many mistakes on the ground.

    With Spencer and Dawson both looking like free squares, I could see fading one and then just going balanced. I think we’ll see a lot of people go with stars and scrubs lineups… and end up with 2 losses.

  • someclevername

    Yeah, but which “free square” are you willing to part with? As a single bullet player, I’d say – for me – Dawson. I mean there is no way Felicia is losing this, right? lol I know WMMA is more volatile, so she should be the one, but…Minner has a chance….a better chance of ending this early. It’s his only PTV. I really don’t know what Fairn’s PTV is lol, other than a fluke KO, which is far less likely in WMMA. Also, just sayin’, Dawson talked shit lol which makes him absolutely ripe for the upset lol.

  • thevogaman

    I dont know…. I said that… but I’m 81% Dawson and 72% Spencer right now. I think Spencer is safer, but Dawson has the higher ceiling. I really expect Spencer to get 1 td, 2 advances, and the sub. Whereas Dawson I’m hoping for 5+ takedowns and lots of ground strikes, maybe a 2nd round TKO or sub.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I dont know…. I said that… but I’m 81% Dawson and 72% Spencer right now. I think Spencer is safer, but Dawson has the higher ceiling. I really expect Spencer to get 1 td, 2 advances, and the sub. Whereas Dawson I’m hoping for 5+ takedowns and lots of ground strikes, maybe a 2nd round TKO or sub.

    *Blah, who cares about my rambling nonsense lol.

  • someclevername

    I already know, whichever way I go, it’s going to be Megan that screws me. I’ll take Norma, it’s wrong or I’ll take Megan it’s wrong. Man, I really hate picking her fights.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Dawson & Spencer ARE free squares. It’s the other 4 we have to guess right on lol.

    For a single bullet, yeah, tough to fade either one… especially since you’re playing Fig.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    For a single bullet, yeah, tough to fade either one… especially since you’re playing Fig.

    Yeah, idk if I’m going to play Figgy now. 1. he only has one way to win 2. he was a wanker and missed weight 3. Joe B has had this coming for awhile and is, honestly, the better fighter. Had Fig never missed weight, this wouldn’t even be an issue. Barring a one-hitter-quitter (possible) …Joe should win. And I hope he does – but yeah, going to have to redo my lineup now w/o Fig.

  • gausman7

    If I go Dawson/Spencer, I don’t see a road to 5 wins right now.

    Would rather just take Dawson (ceiling play), fade Spencer, run Benavidez, and try to pick the right side of the close fights in the mid/high 7K range.

    Only shot I see to 6/6 without a fluke.

  • gje627

    Assuming he has his anxiety under control ….

    Tom Breese thoughts?

  • iron_tactics

    @someclevername said...

    I already know, whichever way I go, it’s going to be Megan that screws me. I’ll take Norma, it’s wrong or I’ll take Megan it’s wrong. Man, I really hate picking her fights.

    If you’re playing a single bullet there’s 2 options:
    A) The single bullet is your cash lineup in which case you go the “safe” route to you hit your cash lines in cash plays and it’s a “in case my cash lineup takes down a gpp line”
    B) The single bullet in GPP that isn’t cash in which case you gotta take the crazy off the wall plays like Norma over Megan. Megan could knee Norma in the face Rd 1 while she’s on her butt and boom 1st rd win for Norma. Fluke shit but you gotta set your limit on crazy and then go just a skootch beyond that.

    I have 8 lineups in the $15 and I don’t know how much Norma I will have yet. But I do know there IS a path to victory for her

  • gje627

    Probably playing too many lineups (192) and subject to change, but absent a fight cancellation … this is likely final.

    Good Luck everyone.

    —-

    UFC Fight Night 169 – My Lineups

    Name Number of Lineups Percentage (%)
    —————————————————— ————————————— ————————
    Felicia Spencer 128 66.67%
    Grant Dawson 128 66.67%
    Joseph Benavidez 96 50.00%
    Deiveson Figueiredo 96 50.00%
    TJ Brown 92 47.92%
    Ion Cutelaba 82 42.71%
    Tom Breese 73 38.02%
    Serghei Spivac 69 35.94%
    Sean Brady 66 34.38%
    Megan Anderson 59 30.73%
    Kyler Phillips 54 28.13%
    Spike Carlyle 37 19.27%
    Marcin Tybura 30 15.63%
    Luis Pena 24 12.50%
    Magomed Ankalaev 24 12.50%
    Steve Garcia 24 12.50%
    Norma Dumont 22 11.46%
    Brendan Allen 19 9.90%
    Aalon Cruz 14 7.29%
    Jordan Griffin 9 4.69%
    Gabriel Silva 6 3.13%
    Ismail Naurdiev 0 0.00%
    Darrick Minner 0 0.00%
    Zarah Fairn 0 0.00%

    ——

  • GoldenWolf87

    @gje627 said...

    Quote

    Reply

    Why Ion Cutelaba though? Tom Breese hasn’t fought in a year. I think you might have a bit more Breese though.

  • gje627

    @GoldenWolf87 said...

    Why Ion Cutelaba though? Tom Breese hasn’t fought in a year. I think you might have a bit more Breese though.

    In GPPs I play upside in the form of finishes. I like Magomed Ankalaev more in that fight (actually a lot more), but the numbers say Cutebala has the most upside at his salary of the dogs. Tom Breese? I asked the question early as I’m a little stumped by him. Honestly? I was hoping the numbers 100% supported Breese (I’m a fan), but I’m too stupid to ever question the numbers, and the numbers weren’t in my favor.

  • iron_tactics

    @GoldenWolf87 said...

    Why Ion Cutelaba though? Tom Breese hasn’t fought in a year. I think you might have a bit more Breese though.

    This is why

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    *Megan Anderson fights are always a nightmare for single bullet players like myself – she either scores highly or her opponent does and you never know wtf you’re going to get from her. What’s the scuttlebutt on (and if her nickname isn’t “Bates” that’s a missed opportunity) Norma? If she has any kind of offensive wrestling and any kind of sub game, I could easily get there.

    I made 5 lineups tonight and have Megan in one of them, but am rethinking that.

    I also made one lineup with Norma, which scares me for a couple reasons
    1) In my life I’ve know 3 women named Norma and they were all the nicest, kindest people I’ve known, but I absolutely wouldn’t take them in a fight.
    2) Norma’s nickname isn’t “Bates”, it’s “Imortal”. And if she was going for “Immortal”, she spelled it wrong. I hope there is a good explanation.

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