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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 171/UFC on ESPN+ 29

    Wednesday, May 13th, 2020 – VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena – Jacksonville, FL

    ESPN+ Main Card – 8pm CT

    Anthony Smith (205) vs Glover Teixeira (205.5)
    Ben Rothwell (265) vs Ovince Saint Preux (240.5)
    Alexander Hernandez (155) vs Drew Dober (156)
    Ricky Simon (135) vs Ray Borg (135.5)
    Andrei Arlovski (238) vs Philipe Lins (236)
    Michael Johnson (156) vs Thiago Moises (155.5)

    ESPN+ Prelims – 6pm CT

    Sijara Eubanks (136) vs Sarah Moras (136)
    Gabriel Benitez (155.5) vs Omar Morales (155.5)
    Hunter Azure (145) vs Brian Kelleher (145.5)
    Chase Sherman (253) vs Ike Villanueva (232)

    Roberson/Vettori OFF

  • jki7p6

    Dober/Hernandez low key a solid fight
    Simon/Borg weight cut casualty – calling it
    Johnson/Moises – ugh
    Really like Sherman on first look and Kelleher on all looks.

  • thevogaman

    This card is weird. I favor the dog in like every fight,, but Smith, Dober, and Morales. Have to do some tape study, but feeling like $2000+ left on the table could win.

  • rourke441

    yep some live dogs here i like kelleher-borg-kal robertson

  • NewMike

    I would much rather have any of the guys in the sub $7500 range than $9200 Eubanks.

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    I would much rather have any of the guys in the sub $7500 range than $9200 Eubanks.

    All the 9k range seems tenuous at best; very strange card. And the $10 tournament is still only half full with 24 hours to go… overlay?!

  • gje627

    Agree with most of the sentiments here, with a small exception. That being DK pricing … and their refusal to price anyone with identical salaries. Really think the high-priced fighters could do well and dominate a lineup, but also agree the low-priced value plays are strong as well. In other words, anything here above $9K seems excessively high and conversely salaries below $7.5K seem far too low …. For cards like this, DK may want to consider duplicate mid-range salaries and squishing the salaries closer together ….

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    Agree with most of the sentiments here, with a small exception. That being DK pricing … and their refusal to price anyone with identical salaries. Really think the high-priced fighters could do well and dominate a lineup, but also agree the low-priced value plays are strong as well. In other words, anything here above $9K seems excessively high and conversely salaries below $7.5K seem far too low …. For cards like this, DK may want to consider duplicate mid-range salaries and squishing the salaries closer together ….

    Yeah, that’s not a bad idea… but then again, I think it could help us against some of the more casual players who are going to play Eubanks or Vettori (not saying they’re bad plays) just because they have 10k left to spend and don’t want to leave 2k on the table.

    Surprised me to see a lot of touts are on Glover for this card, too. I’m going to play a fighter in the main event in almost every lineup anyways, so I’ll probably end up like 65% Smith/35% Glover.

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    Surprised me to see a lot of touts are on Glover for this card, too.

    Absolutely agree.

    Lucky for me, I’m in Colorado and effective May 1st sports betting is legal (did pretty good Saturday, didn’t even DFS) … so I can hedge any DFS lineups I plan to play tomorrow on some straight bets or small parlays … but I find it hard to even consider playing Glover.

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    Absolutely agree.

    Lucky for me, I’m in Colorado and effective May 1st sports betting is legal (did pretty good Saturday, didn’t even DFS) … so I can hedge any DFS lineups I plan to play tomorrow on some straight bets or small parlays … but I find it hard to even consider playing Glover.

    I busted all my parlays on Tony but won $16 on DFS.

    This cards got me playing guys that have let me down repeatedly like Rothwell and Michael Johnson. Gonna be a long night… or redemption.

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    I busted all my parlays on Tony but won $16 on DFS.

    This cards got me playing guys that have let me down repeatedly like Rothwell and Michael Johnson. Gonna be a long night… or redemption.

    Michael Johnson … no clue what his problem is now. The only thing Rothwell has going for him is he’s fighting OSP … now at heavyweight …. I hate cards OSP is on … he always screws me !!!

  • NewMike

    I think this is a ME you don’t have to play. I can see the winner having 80 points and if you have Smith, that probably won’t be good enough. Smith is definitely a finisher though, so if it’s early he could pay off. Teixiera is pretty durable though, I don’t know

    Lots of touts seem to really like Azure too, he might be good as a contrarian play.

    Borg actually made weight, so if he’s in good form, he’s a great UD pick against a guy with a glass jaw. He has no power whatsoever, but if can hurt him and get him down, we know how good he is on the ground. 94 and 116 in 3 round DEC wins is good enough for me at that price.

  • NewMike

    @gje627 said...

    Michael Johnson … no clue what his problem is now. The only thing Rothwell has going for him is he’s fighting OSP … now at heavyweight …. I hate cards OSP is on … he always screws me !!!

    I like both of those guys, but who knows which Johnson shows up and we’ve never seen OSP at heavyweight. But Rothwell is so slow and fat and Moises should be a lay up for Johnson, which means Johnson will fight like crap.

  • someclevername

    I’m going to know how this will go pretty quickly cos I’m going to roll the dice on the Vanilla Gorilla. I am not filled with confidence, but he’s bigger & has fought in the UFC before & that is the end of my list of reasons for picking him.

    Oh boy, count me in on the MJ train knowing full well it could jump the track right off the side of the mountain at any time. I think the stars are aligning for a good Michael performance though…and if so take pictures. Likely won’t see it again for awhile.

    Old, fat, slow ass Ben Rothwell hell yeah, let’s go. Just need OSP to gas out really quickly then stand still with his hands down.

    I’m going to play Lins too cos there is absolutely no way that having all 3 HW fights could turn out poorly. It’s science.

  • Stangs13

    Really struggling with cash this week. It all came together easily for me last week and I did well. I feel like this card has so many coin flips that I’m not sure what to do. I think I’m locked in on smith borg and lins for now but need 3 more and just can’t decide.

  • Stangs13

    Also does anyone have any insight in the Benitez/morales or moras/Eubanks fights? I can’t get a read on either.

  • yisman

    Roberson sick. Fight canceled. Supposedly not COVID.

  • thevogaman

    @yisman said...

    Roberson sick. Fight canceled. Supposedly not COVID.

    Damn… he did look like shit yesterday, though. Nothing like having to adjust a bunch of lineups at work.

  • gje627

    Ugly … with only 10 fights and no fight stacks … only 10,785 possible lineups at or under the salary limit. If you assume the winning lineup will include the 5-round main, there are only 6,421 possible lineups with one of Smith or Glover.

    The DK $100K first contest will have 47,000 entries ….

    Obviously, some lineups are pure trash ….

    Looks like a monster zillion-way tie for first tonight !!!

    No way will I be playing fantasy tonight … so thank God I can bet now.

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    Looks like a monster zillion-way tie for first tonight !!!

    Looking at what I’m losing on my stocks today…. I’d take it.

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    Looking at what I’m losing on my stocks today…. I’d take it.

    But what if you max enter and your best lineup turns out to be the second best lineup of the night …. If there is a large number of entries that tie for first … lets say 100, the second best lineup will be at 101 and pay peanuts (probably with another large number of ties) … and all lineups thereafter (more ties) will pay smaller and smaller peanuts, or nothing at all ….

    This is why I won’t play fantasy tonight.

  • gje627

    I guess, if there was a fight card to avoid the main and/or stack a fight … tonight would the night to try and gain a unique lineup edge.

    But ….

    Another reason I won’t play fantasy tonight … this is far too negative EV for me … and winning this way (the “once in a blue moon” scenario) is not “fantasy skill” but instead “lottery luck” ….

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    But what if you max enter and your best lineup turns out to be the second best lineup of the night …. If there is a large number of entries that tie for first … lets say 100, the second best lineup will be at 101 and pay peanuts (probably with another large number of ties) … and all lineups thereafter (more ties) will pay smaller and smaller peanuts, or nothing at all ….

    This is why I won’t play fantasy tonight.

    Yeah, I’m only doing 10 in the $10 (and 100 in the $1 and playing the $3 20-entry max). I’ve yet to make a lineup I like and if I don’t cash a single lineup I won’t be surprised… but I think this is one of those cards that you need to leave 3k on the table if you want to get it.

  • gje627

    @thevogaman said...

    but I think this is one of those cards that you need to leave 3k on the table if you want to get it.

    I definitely agree … another good way to differentiate.

  • someclevername

    @Stangs13 said...

    Also does anyone have any insight in the Benitez/morales or moras/Eubanks fights? I can’t get a read on either.

    Benitez coming up from FW – Morales should have a nice size advantage. I’m playing Morales and crossing my fingers for a finish, but could be a fantasy dud. I was listening to a podcast the other day and they reminded me that his debut fight (70 DK points, ugh) was in South Korea on that KZ/Edgar card. Generally, I try not to judge fighters too harshly on their debut performance & the travel to SK & not having his usual team w/him may have played a part. It’s MMA – Benitez could dust him lol who knows, but with everything considered I’ll take another shot on Morales and see what he can do.

    Eubanks/Moras is a hard pass for me. On paper Eubanks should roll, but traditionally she has shit cardio and you just can’t trust her. Moras is usually game – if she can hang around and Sarj gasses…never know. All I know is I’m not playing it lol, but GL whichever way you go!

  • yisman

    definitely going to be a lot of ties

    also, in terms of possible lineups, look at realistic ones

    when you cut it down to possible lineups that spend 49k-50k, it’s even less possibilities

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