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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 172/UFC on ESPN+ 30

    Saturday, July 18th, 2020 | UFC Fight Island | Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

    Main Card (ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Flyweight Title Fight
    Deiveson Figueiredo (125) vs Joseph Benavidez (125)

    Jack Hermansson (186) vs Kelvin Gastelum (186)
    Marc Diakiese (156) vs Rafael Fiziev (156)
    Ariane Lipski (126) vs Luana Carolina (126)
    Alexandre Pantoja (125) vs Askar Askarov (126)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 4pm CT)

    Roman Dolidze (206) vs Khadis Ibragimov (206)
    Grant Dawson (150)* vs Nad Narimani (150)*
    Joe Duffy (155.5) vs Joel Alvarez (156)
    Brett Johns (136) vs Montel Jackson (136)
    Malcolm Gordon (135) vs Amir Albazi (136)
    Davi Ramos (156) vs Arman Tsarukyan (156)
    Carlos Felipe (261) vs Serghei Spivac (240)

    *Dawson/Narimani at 150 pound catchweight

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Event Page

  • rourke441

    a strong like for dolidze early dogs ramos and johns

  • DC2380

    Last night was horrible for me. Hopefully Saturday will be better

  • BigDaddy123

    I listened to too many podcasts and read too many articles that like andres mikalikis, i am so pissed i got fooled like that. After the first minute of that fight I knew andres was done, he had nothing for mukauskaus. oh yea and F you too abdul alrasak or whatever his name is

  • rourke441

    yep i quit watching the youtube podcasts last months

  • BigDaddy123

    i watch too many, then get idea in my head for my DK lineup and can’t get off it, all week i liked murphy on my own, but i let them talk me into andres and like 45% ownership, im so mad at myself

  • Syko

    Anyone have data or a rough estimate of how often you need to have the five round fight(s) to win a GPP? I can see justification for fading Benavidez vs. Figueiredo based on Figueiredo’s relatively low SS volume. I sort of like Benavidez as a contrarian option based on his volume, but I just don’t see how he wins any way other than in a decision. Is it just stupid to fade the only 5 round fight?

  • CityBoy410

    If Figueiredo don’t make weight, it might end up being Benavidez vs Pantoja or somebody.

  • thevogaman

    @CityBoy410 said...

    If Figueiredo don’t make weight, it might end up being Benavidez vs Pantoja or somebody.

    Well, scratch that. Fig made weight. There would have been tremendous value on both sides of a potential Benavidez/Pantoja 5 rounder.

  • NewMike

    @Syko said...

    Anyone have data or a rough estimate of how often you need to have the five round fight(s) to win a GPP? I can see justification for fading Benavidez vs. Figueiredo based on Figueiredo’s relatively low SS volume. I sort of like Benavidez as a contrarian option based on his volume, but I just don’t see how he wins any way other than in a decision. Is it just stupid to fade the only 5 round fight?

    I think that would be a misleading stat. I would just do what you’re already doing, breaking down the fight. But if you think Benavidez has good volume and can win a decision, he should score pretty well.

  • Syko

    @NewMike said...

    I think that would be a misleading stat. I would just do what you’re already doing, breaking down the fight. But if you think Benavidez has good volume and can win a decision, he should score pretty well.

    Why would it be misleading? There aren’t really any other sports where you can get 66% more action in a specific match over the others. You don’t have some baseball games going 9 innings while others go 15, and you’d certainly take the 15 inning game if you could.

  • thevogaman

    @Syko said...

    Why would it be misleading? There aren’t really any other sports where you can get 66% more action in a specific match over the others. You don’t have some baseball games going 9 innings while others go 15, and you’d certainly take the 15 inning game if you could.

    I think he’s saying because every main event matchup is different. Other than this past event, last one I remember was Romero/Adesanya (but that had Joana/Zhang as a 5-rounder that you needed to stack).

    I’d also like to know what the stat is for how often the winning lineup does or doesn’t have the main event. gje627 (?)

  • NewMike

    That is what I meant, matchups are so important.

  • thevogaman

    I don’t think it’s crazy to be underweight to the main on this one. If Fig wins a decision or a 3rd or later decision, I think there’s a very high chance he’s not on the optimal.

  • NewMike

    It looks like everyone made weight and no one needed a towel. One guy even kept his jogging pants on. Did anyone get any real takeaways from the weigh ins?

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    It looks like everyone made weight and no one needed a towel. One guy even kept his jogging pants on. Did anyone get any real takeaways from the weigh ins?

    Haven’t watched them yet, but the face-offs are basically worthless with the Fight Island costumes.

    I haven’t had a chance to tape anything yet, so need to see what Felipe, Albazi, Gordon, and Dolidze have to offer. Hoping Dolidze at least looks like a killer, because Ibragimov sucks.

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    Did anyone get any real takeaways from the weigh ins?

    Yeah, Figgy coming home w/the belt this time

  • NewMike

    Pretty sure he was the one wearing jogging pants. It probably doesn’t really matter, but that makes me think he had an easy weight cut.

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    but that makes me think he had an easy weight cut.

    I hope so – haven’t watched them yet, but was relieved to see he hit the mark.

  • DC2380

    Hey guys….Any thoughts on Rafael Fiziev? Good fighter??

  • mnstone14

    @DC2380 said...

    Hey guys….Any thoughts on Rafael Fiziev? Good fighter??

    yes…. but not as good as diakese, who should win. I could see Diakese not scoring well in a win, but for cash really leaning towards guys who i think have the best chance at w’s.

    For example. Dolidize is a few hundred more example and theres plenty of concerns about him. The line is really narrowing as well.

  • miggs6876

    @Syko said...

    Anyone have data or a rough estimate of how often you need to have the five round fight(s) to win a GPP? I can see justification for fading Benavidez vs. Figueiredo based on Figueiredo’s relatively low SS volume. I sort of like Benavidez as a contrarian option based on his volume, but I just don’t see how he wins any way other than in a decision. Is it just stupid to fade the only 5 round fight?

    Any thoughts on playing both Benavides and Figuerido in the same line up?

  • CityBoy410

    I need the projected ownerships for each fighter.

  • CityBoy410

    Never mind the projections are out now.

  • Johnsloop

    Looks like a lot of live dogs on this card. Have a lineup I really like with 700 on the table. Anybody else leaving some salary on the table to be contrarian? I feel like this is a great card to take a shot or two like that.

  • CityBoy410

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