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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 173 / UFC on ESPN+ 31

    Saturday, August 1st, 2020 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN+, 8pm CT)

    Derek Brunson (186) vs Edmen Shahbazyan (185.5)
    Joanne Calderwood (126) vs Jennifer Maia (124.5)
    Vicente Luque (170.5) vs Randy Brown (170.5)
    Bobby Green (156) vs Lando Vannata (155.5)
    Kevin Holland (184) vs Trevin Giles (185)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 6pm CT)

    Frankie Saenz (136) vs Jonathan Martinez (140.5)*
    Nate Maness (144.5) vs Johnny Munoz (145.5)
    Jamall Emmers (146) vs Vince Cachero (145)
    Chris Gutierrez (135.5) vs Cody Durden (135.5)

    *Martinez missed the Bantamweight limit by 4.5 pounds and will be fined 30% of his purse

    Herman/Meerschaert CANCELLED

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Event Page

  • someclevername

    Note: Main event is only 3 rounds

    *Holm/Aldana was the original main event. Aldana tested positive for COVID-19, so Brunson/Shahbazyan got the bump. Stays 3 rounds due to short notice.

  • NewMike

    I thought there might be some good value on Brunson, but he’s getting chinny and if he doesn’t get TDs, he’s probably going out.

    The fight we probably have to get right is Luque/Brown, that should be a war. I need to rewatch that Brown/Price fight, but he was winning that wasn’t he and then Price KOd him from the bottom.

    I think Borg could get a bunch of TDs and score really well.

  • rourke441

    what brunson at plus 279 his losses all came vs. the top guys in his division other live dogs saenz brown spicely

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    The fight we probably have to get right is Luque/Brown, that should be a war. I need to rewatch that Brown/Price fight, but he was winning that wasn’t he and then Price KOd him from the bottom.

    I’m trying to not go too heavy on Luque. He might be my favorite fighter in the UFC (at this point) because of his willingness to just throw down and fight for your money. I worry Brown comes in with a good gameplan where he uses his length, keeps the distance, gets some sneaky takedowns to steal rounds, etc… and plus, the line is moving to Brown. But we’re back to the small cage… and I really think Luque cracks him early and gets a TKO or sub within the first round.

    Also, doesn’t it seem crazy that Luque is actually 2 years younger?

  • someclevername

    First thought on Green/Lando was draw and then I saw they actually have fought to a draw before lol. I have zero memory of that fight, but it makes perfect sense.

    Might play Cody Durden just for the hell of it.

  • NewMike

    @thevogaman said...

    Also, doesn’t it seem crazy that Luque is actually 2 years younger?

    That does seem crazy, I also thought Maness would be a few years younger than Borg, but it’s the other way around.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Might play Cody Durden just for the hell of it.

    I’m starting to get there despite only seeing amateur fights and random kickboxing matches. Legit camp, hoping he’s the better wrestler… most importantly, best way I can fit in Luque and Shahbazyan with Holland or Borg in the same lineup.

    I was completely underweight to Gutierrez last time and he broke the slate. This time, it’s shame on me… ‘cause I ain’t playing him at $9200.

  • thevogaman

    Damn. Slow thread. So Valiev is out and Emmers now faces Vincent Cachero. Emmers’ ownership probably increases by about 20%; I’d guess.

  • NewMike

    They need to cut Borg, he’s the biggest screwup in all of MMA

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    They need to cut Borg, he’s the biggest screwup in all of MMA

    Right? Borg and Spicely. This card is going to be unplayable depending on who these replacements are. 1st place split 1000 ways?

  • NewMike

    I’m not making LUs until weigh ins from now on.

  • someclevername

    Damn, a lot has transpired since I last checked. So, Valiev, Borg & Spicely out?

  • someclevername

    *Fight off

  • NewMike

    At least I can leave Perez in

  • someclevername

    Martinez missed by 4.5 pounds lol everything is going great

  • mnstone14

    jackson/luque stackable in cash?

  • smonger19

    @NewMike said...

    At least I can leave Perez in

    No longer….Perez-Ontiveros now cancelled.

    I’m just glad I wasn’t more abitious last night or more fights would have been cancelled. I started looking at the bottom of the card and 3 of the 4 fights I looked at were either cancelled or changed.

  • someclevername

    I don’t play cash, but think Luque is getting the finish here. His style is going to get him ko’d eventually – not sure Randy is the one to do it though.

    Guess Perez/Ontiveros is OFF

  • smonger19

    @mnstone14 said...

    jackson/luque stackable in cash?

    I’m assuming the question is the Brown/Luque fight. I don’t play cash games in MMA, but I would assume no (and please someone correct me if I’m wrong). With such a good chance of an early finish, one should score well and the other poorly. My assumption is in cash games, you want your lower priced fighters to have a good floor if they lose.

  • NewMike

    @mnstone14 said...

    jackson/luque stackable in cash?

    I wouldn’t stack a Luque fight, he’s too live to KO anyone quick. I think Green/Vannata would be the best one to stack on this card,

  • NewMike

    Looks like Emmers is super chalky. -300 favourite at $7800

  • someclevername

    Maness/Munoz both $7200? Has that ever happened before?

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    Maness/Munoz both $7200? Has that ever happened before?

    I can’t remember it if it has happened before.

    I would now assume that this would be the fight to stack in cash games (if one were to do that). I like Maness a bit more, but I could see them going to a decision and combining for about 130 points. That’s not great for $14,400 in salary, but could be worth it in cash games to allow you to spend $8,900 per fighter on your remaining 4.

  • someclevername

    I wasn’t quite sure what I was doing before all of these shenanigans…now I really don’t know what I’m doing.

    Like Edmen, obviously. Kid has a lot of talent. I can never trust Brunson to follow a gameplan, but he will be the best opponent Edmen has had thus far. I am extremely observant and noticed Derek has blonde hair now. Don’t think it’s less or more, just blonde. How do we feel about hair dye? Pro/con?

    Speaking of not following a f’ng gameplan – Kevin Holland. I still want to play him, but a lil concerned his shoulder injury isn’t completely healed. He had an issue w/it in the Di Chirico fight and it sucked bigly as I had him and he couldn’t throw much for like half the fight. Still though, Giles is pretty meh and showed abysmal fight IQ by choosing to grapple with GM3…right up until he got, predictably, submitted. I do worry he might try to wall n’ stall, limiting Kevin’s output. Idk.

    Frankie Saenz is about two weeks away from being a 40 year old BW and that does not sound good at all.

    Kind of like JoJo here – she has the ability to put up a few points. She’s always doing something, which is great for both dfs and the actual fight. Some fighters could learn…cough Darren Till cough…from her.

    Luuuqueee!

  • someclevername

    @someclevername said...

    I am extremely observant and noticed Derek has blonde hair now. Don’t think it’s less or more, just blonde. How do we feel about hair dye? Pro/con?

    LOL ok so I just found out he’s had this for awhile. Like I said – extremely observant.

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