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  • someclevername

    UFC Fight Night 174 / UFC on ESPN+ 32

    Saturday, August 8th, 2020 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN+, 8pm CT)

    Derrick Lewis (265) vs Aleksei Oleinik (227)
    Chris Weidman (186) vs Omari Akhmedov (185.75)
    Darren Stewart (186) vs Maki Pitolo (186)
    Yana Kunitskaya (135.5) vs Julija Stoliarenko (136)
    Beneil Dariush (158)* vs Scott Holtzman (156)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 5pm CT)

    Tim Means (171) vs Laureano Staropoli (174.5)**
    Kevin Holland (183.5) vs Joaquin Buckley (185)
    Nasrat Haqparast (156) vs Alex Munoz (156)
    Andrew Sanchez (185.5) vs Wellington Turman (185.5)
    Justin Jaynes (146) vs Gavin Tucker (146)
    Youssef Zalal (146) vs Peter Barrett (145.5)
    Ali Qaisi (136) vs Irwin Rivera (136)

    *Dariush missed the Lightweight limit by 2 pounds and fined 20% of his purse

    **Staropoli missed the Welterweight limit by 3.5 pounds and fined 20% of his purse.

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Event Page

  • jki7p6

    @someclevername said...

    Beneil Dariush vs Scott Holtzman

    Will probably decision but this fight is my jam

  • someclevername

    The scuttlebutt is Kevin Holland vs Joaquin Buckley will be added. They need to burn some sage in there this week – can never be too careful.

  • thevogaman

    Weidman at $8k is kind of a joke to me. The chin is faded, but this seems like an easy win wherever it goes. Tim Means, also. Daniel Rodriguez would style on Staropoli and Niko would knock him out, too. MMA math kind of… but I think both win easily (or get knocked out again).

    Feels like recency bias because both guys are getting pretty big steps down in competition and would be close to 9k fighters if this was the match-up one fight prior.

  • NewMike

    Can we actually use the freeroll ticket this week? I can’t see any GPPs I can use it for

  • smonger19

    Coconut Bombz!!!!

    Also “Slippery Pete”. Reminds me of two Breaking Bad characters, Skinny Pete and Saul Goodman (previously known as Slippin’ Jimmy). It’s a stretch, but it was a great show.

  • geardaddy

    anyone else get a mma freeroll ticket for this weekend but there’s no contest in the lobby?

  • CityBoy410

    @NewMike said...

    Can we actually use the freeroll ticket this week? I can’t see any GPPs I can use it for

    I’m having trouble using my free roll.

  • thevogaman

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/89075572

    That link should take you to the free roll contest. I think they only sent the link out in an email.

  • NewMike

    I finally got it to work. I’m out of town for work, so I was getting geo location problems as well. They didn’t make it easy

  • rourke441

    really like the dogs in main and co-main

  • NewMike

    I finally got it to work. I’m out of town for work, so I was getting geo location problems as well. They didn’t make it easy

  • NewMike

    I like Oleinik here a lot. Lewis has that one shot power but he rarely lands it anymore. I think he’s getting subbed

  • thevogaman

    @rourke441 said...

    really like the dogs in main and co-main

    I’m trying to talk myself into being underweight to the co-main, but I still think I’m rolling with Weidman. I didn’t understand why he was a dog to begin with and I honestly can’t see a path for Ahkmedov (like at all).

    I’m going to be very underweight to Ahkmedov (don’t see the knockout happening) and probably with the field on Weidman. Could be a lot of clinching against the cage and probably a clear decision for Weidman, so might not get the score we need. I’m always hesitant to fade underdog DK pricing for a favorite.

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    I like Oleinik here a lot. Lewis has that one shot power but he rarely lands it anymore. I think he’s getting subbed

    Yeah, Black Beast has let us down with some shit scores in the past, but I think you need to target both sides of this fight throughout your lineups and not make too strong of a stand one way or the other.

    I think a bet on Oleinik by decision at +1400 could be kind of a sneaky bet. Could see this looking a lot like the Latifi fight.

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, Black Beast has let us down with some shit scores in the past, but I think you need to target both sides of this fight throughout your lineups and not make too strong of a stand one way or the other.

    Right now I plan on completely fading Lewis. I’ll have some Oleinik, but will have some lineups without the main event.

    I can’t see Lewis putting up a very good score. In his last seven wins, he’s averaging under 2 pre-decision points per minute. His last 4 wins were 0.67, 1.57, 2.33 and 0.67. The only fight he scored over 2 in was the Volkov fight thanks to the last minute knockout. He’s going to need a 1st round KO to score over 100 and even if he does that, he won’t have a slate breaking score. He hasn’t had a 1st round KO in 12 fights and only one in the 2nd round since then. If it goes to the 2nd round, Lewis might score 90.

    The counterargument is that Oleinik can be finished early but I don’t think Lewis can do it. I see it being low scoring, but I will have some Oleinik at his price.

  • m994770

    @thevogaman said...

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/89075572

    Thanks for this — must have deleted the e-mail!

  • m994770

    @thevogaman said...

    Could be a lot of clinching against the cage and probably a clear decision for Weidman, so might not get the score we need.

    That’s pretty much my thinking —- will be way underweight on this fight . . .

  • someclevername

    Means & Staropoli with the rare double miss. Means took the additional hour and ended up making weight at 171 – he was like nah, give me that extra 20% lol.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Means & Staropoli with the rare double miss. Means took the additional hour and ended up making weight at 171 – he was like nah, give me that extra 20% lol.

    The Dariush miss is kind of concerning. I don’t believe he’s ever missed weight before. Might be something going on there. Got me nervous sitting at 40% exposure to Beneil; just don’t see him as a guy that would miss on purpose.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    The Dariush miss is kind of concerning. I don’t believe he’s ever missed weight before. Might be something going on there. Got me nervous sitting at 40% exposure to Beneil; just don’t see him as a guy that would miss on purpose.

    Haven’t watched the weigh-ins completely yet, did he look ok? If he didn’t look too drained then I’m going to try not to worry about it too much…and, like I do every Benny fight, focus all of my worry on just his chin instead.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Haven’t watched the weigh-ins completely yet, did he look ok? If he didn’t look too drained then I’m going to try not to worry about it too much…and, like I do every Benny fight, focus all of my worry on just his chin instead.

    Yeah, he looked normal.

    I notice Staropoli has blonde hair now, which based on last week, means automatic 100 points.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I notice Staropoli has blonde hair now

    Locking him in

  • jki7p6

    Jaynes my fav dog

  • thevogaman

    @jki7p6 said...

    Jaynes my fav dog

    I think you and everyone else. I’m hedging a decent amount just because Tucker is the better striker in a lot of ways and he’s proven himself to be very durable. Be interesting to see if Jaynes comes in to brawl again and gasses himself out if he can’t get the early finish

  • Syko

    I’m just fading Lewis entirely. Just don’t want to pay $8.7k at likely high ownership for a guy that needs to hit a big punch early to make it in the optimal. I don’t really see it being a 5 round fight as a necessary huge upside for him. His striking volume is so low that it’s not like he’s going to be racking strikes up in the extra rounds if they happen, which is doubtful. Rather play for an Oleinik submission.

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