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  • someclevername

    Saturday, February 20th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Main Event
    Curtis Blaydes (259) vs Derrick Lewis (263)

    Co-Main Event
    Ketlen Vieira (138)* vs Yana Kunitskaya (135.5)

    Charles Rosa (146) vs Darrick Minner (146)
    Aleksei Oleinik (240) vs Chris Daukaus (234)
    Phillip Hawes (185) vs Nassourdine Imavov (185.5)
    Andrei Arlovski (249.5) vs Tom Aspinall (244.5)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 4pm CT)

    Jared Gordon (150)** vs Danny Chavez (145)
    Eddie Wineland (135.5) vs John Castañeda (136)
    Nate Landwehr (146) vs Julian Erosa (145.5)
    Shana Dobson (126) vs Casey O’Neill (125.5)
    Aiemann Zahabi (136) vs Drako Rodriguez (140.5)***
    Serghei Spivac (245) vs Jared Vanderaa (265)

    Klose/Pena CANCELLED

    Skelly/Emmers CANCELLED

    *Vieira missed the Women’s Bantamweight limit by 2 pounds and will be fined 20% of her purse

    **Gordon missed the Featherweight limit by 4 pounds and will be fined 30% of his purse

    ***Rodriguez missed the Bantamweight limit by 4.5 pounds and will be fined 30% of his purse

    Fight Odds

    Tapology FightCenter

  • thevogaman

    Here’s a hail Mary parlay I like:

    O’Neil by sub, Landwehr by KO, Aspinall by KO, & Daukaus by KO for +11429. $9 for $1000.

    Might play around with this… O’Neil by sub at +800 seems worth chasing and just fit some other things that seem likely in with that if you’re betting purely for fun.

  • Stangs13

    Glad to see your going good clever. I have family in Dallas and it sounds rough. Your infrastructure is just not made for this like ours is in minnesnowta. Ha we had negative temps for a week and it was nothing. Hopefully the cash you win warms you up.

    As for the fights I hate that the main is a heavyweight fight. You have to play it assuming it doesn’t go five rounds right? I wonder if it will still carry the extra ownership.

  • CityBoy410

    @someclevername said...

    Lost electricity, water & internet and somehow I’m still having a better week than Rafael Alves. How in the hell do you miss the Lightweight limit when your fight is at Featherweight???

    I’m back though, bitches! Electricity steady since last night, water (kind of, low pressure & have to boil) and today internet whooooooo. Feels like what I imagine a lottery win feels like lol. HEB is apocalyptic, but they had (in order of importance) cat food, dog food & beer – WE WILL SURVIVE

    Any fellow rotogrinders in Texas – hope you’re doing well, staying warm & good news, I think the worst is behind us!

    Sorry for the politics, but a little pissed. I don’t mean this as a partisan statement at all, I mean this as a human decency statement – F you Ted Cruz.

    One thing I notice during my military days stationed in El Paso, Texas is how quick they build up houses. A lot of them not good quality.
    Fortunately El Paso hasn’t really suffered from the weather but my heart goes out to all my friends and everybody else that’s dealing with the tough conditions in Texas.

  • jki7p6

    @someclevername said...

    If I take down a GPP tomorrow I will absolutely eat some cat or dog food

    Glad to hear youre coming back from some hell man but you dont need to do this. Alves can get you salmon.

  • thedkexperience

    Glad you’re ok someclevername. My sister is in Houston with power and margaritas if you need a hand. Or really, if you need a margarita.

    Anyway, I’m backing Derek Lewis. I think he wins by KO, full stop. No way this should be a -300 something line.

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    Glad you’re ok someclevername. My sister is in Houston with power and margaritas if you need a hand. Or really, if you need a margarita.

    I’m a little further south & not allowed to drink tequila – glad to hear your sister is doing well, though! It’s been a real bitch, but we’re gonna make it.

  • someclevername

    As much as I want Lewis to win…Blaydes is the play, right? He’s going to get like 10+ takedowns and a ton of control time. I expect Derrick to get up a few times from his black belt in “get off meistu” but eventually Curtis will wear him down. I think. So hungover – strugglin.

  • someclevername

    @Stangs13 said...

    Your infrastructure is just not made for this like ours is in minnesnowta. Ha we had negative temps for a week and it was nothing.

    Right? I have lived in Sandy, UT (outside Salt Lake City) & Tulsa, OK – both had rough winters (not as bad as Minnesota though!) and never had problems like this. Ridiculous. ERCOT under fire – I expect some changes to be made. Only needed some people to die and most subjected to absolute misery for them to fix it :/

  • thedkexperience

    So I switched it up and on top of my single and 3 max I also max entered the 20 max quarter arcade. After like my 7th lineup I was nearly cross eyed trying to get the combinations right. Eventually I got it worked out right but damn, I don’t know who you guys max enter big tournaments all the time.

    Anyway, due to this I do have some Blaydes but I really think he gets KO’d and he’s the one who gets gassed. The longer it goes the more I like Lewis. I don’t think Lewis will have a slate breaking score but 90+ from the cheapest guy on the slate isn’t peanuts either.

    The guy I like most today is Aspinall. I think Arlovski is pretty cooked at this point for someone of high level. I think Aspinall is going to prove he’s high level.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    As much as I want Lewis to win…Blaydes is the play, right?

    He’ll have about 5 times the ownership. There’s a little bit of leverage in getting to like 20% Lewis to just match the odds of him winning, but with a single bullet… I’d be starting with Blaydes.

  • someclevername

    I don’t know anything about Casey O’Neill, but I do know that if I play her she’ll get armbarred.

  • jki7p6

    @someclevername said...

    I don’t know anything about Casey O’Neill, but I do know that if I play her she’ll get armbarred.

    The one fight i want no part of

  • thedkexperience

    @jki7p6 said...

    The one fight i want no part of

    I have O’Neill confidently in my single entry.

    Edit – actually as the card is layed out I love the first four fights and the last few. The ones in the middle are mostly head scratchers for me.

  • jki7p6

    Still picking Boa but more because im praying for experience to luck out (hoping ownership is lower than if he cost say 7200). Aleksei didnt do that weird hand around opponent’s neck molesting thing during faceoffs this time, so no 100%.
    Backed off picking Wineland at all though, and have gone the other way. Think Sexi Mexi might be a style/speed problem.

  • jki7p6

    @thedkexperience said...

    The ones in the middle are mostly head scratchers for me.

    Klose and Aspinall should be easy picks. Watch O’Neill win you a gpp, i think many might avoid that one.

  • thevogaman

    @thedkexperience said...

    I have O’Neill confidently in my single entry.

    Yeah, I like her to outgrapple and eventually sub Dobson in the 1st. I’ve heard a lot of sharp people on Dobson, but I don’t get it and I don’t think she should be anywhere near +140 here. She can’t wrestle and as long as O’Neill doesn’t get subbed from guard or gas out in the first minute, it seems like a lock to me.

  • thedkexperience

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, I like her to outgrapple and eventually sub Dobson in the 1st. I’ve heard a lot of sharp people on Dobson, but I don’t get it and I don’t think she should be anywhere near +140 here. She can’t wrestle and as long as O’Neill doesn’t get subbed from guard or gas out in the first minute, it seems like a lock to me.

    I watched Dobson’s last fight. She was like a +900 dog or something absurd and won. My thinking is that she should by all rights be a +400 underdog this time but she got her odds juiced by people who remember that crazy upset.

    That said in the 20 entry a lot of my pivots were simply picking against the people in my single entry so I do have some shares of Dobson too.

  • someclevername

    Agapova gassed so hard vs Dobson that she had to be stretchered out lol

  • thedkexperience

    @someclevername said...

    Agapova gassed so hard vs Dobson that she had to be stretchered out lol

    Was that the same card where they made a big deal that the favorites won something like 15 fights in a row over two weeks and then all hell broke loose?

    These weeks really run into each other lol

  • Stangs13

    Not sure really what to do with it because I doubt he wins if it goes to decision but wow Lewis has some low scoring decision wins. 38, 40, and 51

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    Was that the same card where they made a big deal that the favorites won something like 15 fights in a row over two weeks and then all hell broke loose?

    Probably lol

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Probably lol

    It was the one where Trevin Jones beat Valiev after getting 10-8’d in the 1st round. So you needed a Trevin Jones/Dobson stack that you weren’t getting to unless you did 200 lineups …. and a bunch of the fights got cancelled, too.

  • iron_tactics

    If i’m Chris Daukaus, am I coming into this fight with a big head? Who’s going to beat me? No one. I’ve knocked out two guys with a 1-0 record in the UFC….in a row. That’s right, two undefeated UFC fighters. What’s Oleinik? Like……..8-5? 62% win rate? More like a 38% loss rate. Look who’s knocked him out…….Derrick Lewis, Walt Harris, Alistair Overeem, Curtis Blaydes. This is the who’s who of pillow hands, amirite? None of these guys hit as hard as me, Chris Daukaus. I’m not afraid of some 38% loss rate guy, i’m 0% loss rate. I’ll grapple this fool, no fear, easy win #won’t even train #won’t even hold my hands up.

  • thevogaman

    Speaking of recency bias, the latest awesemo ownership projection has Phil Hawes at 50%(?!) I get it, but I think Imavov wins.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    It was the one where Trevin Jones beat Valiev after getting 10-8’d in the 1st round. So you needed a Trevin Jones/Dobson stack that you weren’t getting to unless you did 200 lineups …. and a bunch of the fights got cancelled, too.

    I had Trevin Jones cos he had blonde hair! No Dobson though – idk what to do with her or O’Neill. Feels like every time I play the favorite in these lower level WMMA fights I get rolled. Maybe it’ll be different this time lol.

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