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  • someclevername

    Saturday, February 27th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Main Event
    Jairzinho Rozenstruik (254.5) vs Ciryl Gane (247)

    Co-Main Event
    Nikita Krylov (205.5) vs Magomed Ankalaev (205.5)

    Montana De La Rosa (126) vs Mayra Bueno Silva (125.5)
    Pedro Munhoz (135.5) vs Jimmie Rivera (135.5)
    Alex Caceres (146) vs Kevin Croom (145.5)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 5pm CT)

    Alexander Hernandez (156) vs Thiago Moisés (155.5)
    Alexis Davis (135) vs Sabina Mazo (135.5)
    Ronnie Lawrence (135.5) vs Vince Cachero (135.5)
    Dustin Jacoby (204.5) vs Maxim Grishin (210.5)*

    *Grishin missed the Light Heavyweight limit by 4.5 pounds and will forfeit 30% of his purse to Jacoby

    Hill/Yoder CANCELLED

    Fight Odds

    Tapology FightCenter

  • NewMike

    I think Hill could be a decent play this week.She puts up huge volume and has really good TDD and Yoder doesn’t have good TDs. 90-95 seems very possible here since Yoder doesn’t offer much standing. And since Caceres is a big fave, you should probably pick his opponent.

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    And since Caceres is a big fave, you should probably pick his opponent.

    I was going to lock in Croom, but DK showing his nickname as “Crash” instead of “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly”. Idk now.

  • NewMike

    I’m going by tapology and they say he’s “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly”. What’s the record of guys who are coming off a dominant win, but getting overturned to a no contest because they popped for weed?

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    What’s the record of guys who are coming off a dominant win, but getting overturned to a no contest because they popped for weed?

    Jamahal Hill smoked (pun intended) Abreu then NC for weed. Next fight 2nd round standing tko over OSP. Good news.

    Journey Newson deaded Domingo Pilarte then NC for weed. Next fight deaded by Randy Costa. Bad news.

    Preliminary results: 1-1. Inconclusive. Really going to come down to the nickname for me. Need to confirm.

  • thedkexperience

    @NewMike said...

    I’m going by tapology and they say he’s “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly”. What’s the record of guys who are coming off a dominant win, but getting overturned to a no contest because they popped for weed?

    Matt Riddle just won the United States title at Elimination Chamber on Sunday! I’d say it’s a lock!

  • someclevername

    Don’t hate Montana here, so get ready for it

  • thevogaman

    Hoping they add Cowboy Oliviera/ Kuramagomedov both at $8100.

  • NewMike

    Looks like Knight/Menifield is off. That was a good one to target

  • dolphinkick182

    MMA Junkie
    MMAjunkie · 27m Alonzo Menifield tests positive for COVID-19; #UFCVegas20 bout vs. William Knight postponed (via mma_kings
    ,
    @MikeBohnMMA
    )

  • thedkexperience

    I haven’t looked at anything in depth yet but I did just notice that Rozenstruik is an underdog for … um … reasons.

  • thevogaman

    @thedkexperience said...

    I haven’t looked at anything in depth yet but I did just notice that Rozenstruik is an underdog for … um … reasons.

    Yeah, I think people think D-1 Gane is showing up to try to lay-n-pray his way to victory. ‘Cause in the small cage, on the feet… my money is on Rozenstruik.

  • NewMike

    It could look like what Overeem did for 24:55 and Gane just pieces him up from distance and wins a 50-45. I think Gane is better everywhere except for power, but that’s a lot of power and it seems to work for the Black Beast, so who knows. But at the end of the day as long as I get some Top Shots today, I’ll be happy

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    But at the end of the day as long as I get some Top Shots today, I’ll be happy

    We can’t have this forum filled with people talking about Top Shots, Cryptopunks, NFTs, etc, too. My twitter feed is bad enough. :)

    But on the topic at hand … I think there’s a good chance we don’t need the main event this week (again). Even with only 11 fights.

  • NewMike

    If it makes you feel better 10 seconds after saying that, it was delayed. So I am now 100% on Bigi Boy

  • someclevername

    Can’t believe you guys don’t want to pay 9k for the privilege of being stressed tf out the entire fight waiting for Bigi to land a bomb. Sounds like my kind of play right there.

  • BigDaddy123

    so is this the event where the dogs everyone plays are de la rosa, moises, croom and munhoz and where Yoder and Krylov pull out upsets at no ownership?

  • someclevername

    @BigDaddy123 said...

    so is this the event where the dogs everyone plays are de la rosa, moises, croom and munhoz and where Yoder and Krylov pull out upsets at no ownership?

    I think Hernandez & Rivera win by decision so I don’t want Moises or Munhoz *(I don’t see really high upside w/either – I am wrong a lot though), but I’ll probably be playing DLR & Croom. I can easily see DLR getting armbarred – it’s basically a tradition for me at this point. I can see Caceres winning. Angela Hill is sorta Bobby Green-esque in that she has a habit of losing close decisions which makes Yoder live. Krylov/Ankalaev is prob wise to target both sides.

    It’s actually wild – Krylov has had 34 fights and only 2 have gone the distance. They were his last two though. Kinda crazy Krylov/Walker went the distance lol what a world.

  • someclevername

    Actually, looking at Krylov’s record – in 34 fights he’s been finished by strikes once. Once! And it was at Heavyweight in 2013 where he weighed in at 236 and his opponent (Soa Palelei) weighed in at the limit, 265. And it was with 1:36 left in the 3rd. Damn, Krylov got a chin on him… interesting.

  • NewMike

    I’ll definitely have a decent chunk of Krylov, his last 2 losses were to the champ and the guy who should be fighting the champ and that was a split decision. I think he’s more likely to get the finish and he’s fought such better competition. But “The Miner” is a pretty weak nickname, I’ll need to watch the weigh ins and if he wears sunglasses than I might have to fade him.

  • thedkexperience

    @NewMike said...

    I’ll definitely have a decent chunk of Krylov, his last 2 losses were to the champ and the guy who should be fighting the champ and that was a split decision. I think he’s more likely to get the finish and he’s fought such better competition. But “The Miner” is a pretty weak nickname, I’ll need to watch the weigh ins and if he wears sunglasses than I might have to fade him.

    This is the correct way to do MMA math. Not X beats Y and Y beats Z so Z beats X.

    I look at who people lose to. If your losses are to a champ and a number one contender in a split decision that math works out to me that the fighter is a top flight contender. I take more from that then wins against lower ranked opponents, especially decisions.

  • thevogaman

    @BigDaddy123 said...

    so is this the event where the dogs everyone plays are de la rosa, moises, croom and munhoz and where Yoder and Krylov pull out upsets at no ownership

    I mean… Yoder and Krylov will probably be the lowest owned. I think only Montana de la Rosa will be chalk. Tough slate… there’s nobody that’s in a real smash spot.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Tough slate… there’s nobody that’s in a real smash spot.

    Too bad we couldn’t get a rematch of that bar bathroom fight w/the OU player on this card – I know who I’d lock in.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Too bad we couldn’t get a rematch of that bar bathroom fight w/the OU player on this card – I know who I’d lock in.

    Yeah, probably no scraps like that. The one dude reminded me of Chase Hooper.

    I kind of think the winning score this week is gonna be below 650 for the first time in a while. I just don’t see where 6 100+ scores are going to come from. Probably wrong, though.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    The one dude reminded me of Chase Hooper.

    Definitely in the Hooper/Askren family for sure.

    I was looking up the first Munhoz/Rivera & Hill/Yoder fights and ugh. Fantasy black holes. How differently do these rematches go? I would say of the four, Hill is probably the most improved/changed. Feels like Munhoz & Rivera are, more or less, the same fighters. Yoder really hasn’t shown a ton of improvement. Idk, I want to fade all of this, but then Pedro lands a one-hitter-quitter & Hill beats the hell out of Yoder or something.

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