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  • someclevername

    Saturday, March 13th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Main Event
    Leon Edwards (170.5) vs Belal Muhammad (170)

    Co-Main Event
    Misha Cirkunov (205) vs Ryan Spann (206)*

    Dan Ige (145.5) vs Gavin Tucker (146)
    Jonathan Martinez (136) vs Davey Grant (135.5)
    Matheus Nicolau (125.5) vs Manel Kape (125.5)
    Eryk Anders (186) vs Darren Stewart (185.5)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 4pm CT)

    Angela Hill (115.5) vs Ashley Yoder (116)
    Charles Jourdain (145.5) vs Marcelo Rojo (145.5)
    Rani Yahya (136) vs Ray Rodriguez (135.5)
    Nasrat Haqparast (156) vs Rafa Garcia (156)
    Cortney Casey (126) vs JJ Aldrich (125.5)
    Jinh Yu Frey (115.5) vs Gloria de Paula (115.5)
    Jason Witt (171) vs Matthew Semelsberger (169.5)

    *Spann missed by 0.5 pounds on his first attempt; made weight on his second attempt

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • someclevername

    Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa García added per @BigMarcel24 (García replacing Don Madge – out due to visa issues)

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa García added per @BigMarcel24 (García replacing Don Madge – out due to visa issues)

    Be nice to get these salaries sooner than later. Haqparast should be less than Hill based on odds, but curious to see what DK does. A $9500 Haqparast might carry really low ownership.

  • thedkexperience

    I have to mention that while “Remember The Name” is an awful nickname it’s actually quite good branding.

    Despite only watching him maybe twice I always remember Belal Muhammad’s name. Go figure.

  • someclevername

    I already know choosing between Witt/Semelsberger & Misha/Spann going to give me heartburn. Tucker & Nicolau prob popular dogs, but might go there. Think Martinez over Grant in a clear UD, but $9300 is a little rich.

    Ray Rodriguez jumped straight into a Kelleher guillotine… does not inspire confidence vs Yahya.

    Prob passing on Frey/Paula, Casey/Aldrich, Hill/Yoder & Anders/Stewart. I’ll decide on Mini-Kelvin when his pricing comes out late 2022.

    Love Belal, but it’s Leon or bust for moi.

    I have played Jourdain:

    vs Green (L)
    vs Fili (L)
    vs Culibao (D)

    I have not played Jourdain:

    vs Choi (W)

    Play or fade, odds are I’ll be salty.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Haqparast should be less than Hill based on odds, but curious to see what DK does.

    Finally in there – made them the same price. Haqparast $9400/Rafa $6800

  • someclevername

    I forgot Edwards tested positive for COVID-19 in December. If he has any lingering effects, that’s not great. The big layoff is not great. He looks ripped and hopefully 100%, but if he’s not Belal will be testing that cardio. Idk, it’s not like either of them regularly put up huge scores. After putting a little more thought into it, not as interested in the ME. *At least not as interested in the Edwards side

    I don’t like this card much – feels like walking into a minefield. Read through all those names lol some untrustworthy mofos littered throughout.

  • BigDaddy326

    Anyone know how to get the awesemo ownership projections without paying for them?

  • thevogaman

    @BigDaddy326 said...

    Anyone know how to get the awesemo ownership projections without paying for them?

    Not for free, but this site does free projections that are usually pretty good as well.

    https://www.mmadfs.com/the-sheet/

    I’m really far behind on this card and don’t have any particularly strong reads so far. Other than the obvious stuff.

  • someclevername

    After initially leaning Semelsberger… think I’m going to flip to Witt. You have to think Witt is going straight for takedowns. I can’t imagine him hanging out on the feet for too long. He has been ko’d 4 times so there is definitely upside if Bergers lands something clean, but I kind of want to lean on the guy who will be (better be) wrestling here.

  • Baysman

    Tough card to pick from.

  • joephoto

    @Baysman said...

    Tough card to pick from.

    Gonna be some boring, low-scoring fights I’m thinking.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    After initially leaning Semelsberger… think I’m going to flip to Witt. You have to think Witt is going straight for takedowns. I can’t imagine him hanging out on the feet for too long. He has been ko’d 4 times so there is definitely upside if Bergers lands something clean, but I kind of want to lean on the guy who will be (better be) wrestling here.

    This one and Cirkunov/Spann seem like the two most obvious fights to target. I like Semelsberger, but I will still match the field on Witt.

    Two fights that seem way closer to me than the odds imply are Jourdain/Rojo and Grant/Martinez. I’m going to double up the field on the dogs in those two. Maybe get one to hit on relatively low ownership.

  • joephoto

    I’ve got a lot of worthwhile underdogs to use, but which guys do you think will actually score a lot of points today.
    Haqparast ? Hill ? dePaula ?

  • thevogaman

    @joephoto said...

    I’ve got a lot of worthwhile underdogs to use, but which guys do you think will actually score a lot of points today.
    Haqparast ? Hill ? dePaula ?

    Rani Yahya is the only 9k fighter I really trust to score well if they win. De Paula should have a pretty good score if she wins of those 3. I’m hesitant to take either of the 9400 fighters.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Jourdain/Rojo

    It’ll be Rojo cos you know I’m f’ng playing Jourdain again.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Rani Yahya is the only 9k fighter I really trust to score well if they win.

    Hoping Rodriguez follows the exact same game plan he used against Kelleher.

  • someclevername

    Barring any cancellations, think I’m done w/this. Have Kape as maybe a lower owned play – I don’t want to judge his last fight too harshly. Pantoja is a pretty damn tough debut especially coming back from a layoff. Going to ride w/his potential here. Lineup might be dead after Witt anyway so why not.

    Edwards the better fighter, but Belal with the vastly superior Twitter game. I’ve made my choice.

  • thedkexperience

    @someclevername said...

    Finally in there – made them the same price. Haqparast $9400/Rafa $6800

    Why is an undefeated fighter so big of an underdog? I know it’s a step up to UFC but it’s still the same sport and he’s, um, unbeaten at it.

  • thedkexperience

    @someclevername said...

    I forgot Edwards tested positive for COVID-19 in December. If he has any lingering effects, that’s not great. The big layoff is not great. He looks ripped and hopefully 100%, but if he’s not Belal will be testing that cardio. Idk, it’s not like either of them regularly put up huge scores. After putting a little more thought into it, not as interested in the ME. *At least not as interested in the Edwards side

    I don’t like this card much – feels like walking into a minefield. Read through all those names lol some untrustworthy mofos littered throughout.

    It seems like a night of underwhelming judges decisions in most cases.

  • thedkexperience

    @someclevername said...

    Barring any cancellations, think I’m done w/this. Have Kape as maybe a lower owned play – I don’t want to judge his last fight too harshly. Pantoja is a pretty damn tough debut especially coming back from a layoff. Going to ride w/his potential here. Lineup might be dead after Witt anyway so why not.

    Edwards the better fighter, but Belal with the vastly superior Twitter game. I’ve made my choice.

    It appears we are on the complete opposite of everything today. Here’s to us both going 3-3!

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    It appears we are on the complete opposite of everything today.

    This bodes very well for you lol

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    Why is an undefeated fighter so big of an underdog? I know it’s a step up to UFC but it’s still the same sport and he’s, um, unbeaten at it.

    Yeah, level of competition I’d assume. Anything can happen though for sure.

    Speaking of levels, I’ll tell you who lucked out is Rojo. They were going to throw his ass in there with Raoni Barcelos, but he tested positive. Much better shot to pick up a win in your debut against Jourdain.

  • thedkexperience

    @someclevername said...

    Yeah, level of competition I’d assume. Anything can happen though for sure.

    Speaking of levels, I’ll tell you who lucked out is Rojo. They were going to throw his ass in there with Raoni Barcelos, but he tested positive. Much better shot to pick up a win in your debut against Jourdain.

    Uncle Dana likes keeping that 0 on people’s records as long as he can. It just seems like an odd place for an undefeated guy to make his debut. I’m rolling the dice on the new guy maybe grabbing a decision.

    And yeah, I like Rojo for a W as well.

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    Uncle Dana likes keeping that 0 on people’s records as long as he can. It just seems like an odd place for an undefeated guy to make his debut. I’m rolling the dice on the new guy maybe grabbing a decision.

    And yeah, I like Rojo for a W as well.

    Guess they didn’t have a lot of options (or time) to replace Madge.

    You really don’t want to be talking about a $9100 fighter in your lineup like this but…it wouldn’t surprise me to see Rojo win. I’m just stubbornly committed to playing Jourdain until he either wins or gets cut.

    *Plus when you have already clicked names like “Witt” and “Spann” like what difference does it make lol.

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