STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • someclevername

    Saturday, June 26th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN+, 3pm CT)

    Main Event
    Ciryl Gane (245) vs Alexander Volkov (265)

    Co-Main Event
    Ovince St. Preux (230) vs Tanner Boser (240)

    Raoni Barcelos (135) vs Timur Valiev (136)
    Andre Fili (145.5) vs Daniel Pineda (145)
    Nicolas Dalby (170) vs Tim Means (170.5)
    Renato Moicano (156) vs Jai Herbert (155.5)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 12pm CT)

    Danilo Marques (205.5) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (205.5)
    Michel Prazeres (170) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (170.5)
    Warlley Alves (171) vs Jeremiah Wells (171)
    Marcin Prachnio (206) vs Ike Villanueva (205)
    Julia Avila (135.5) vs Julija Stoliarenko (135.5)
    Charles Rosa (146) vs Justin Jaynes (145.5)
    Yancy Medeiros (155.5) vs Damir Hadžović (155.5)

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • thevogaman

    Lately I’ve been hedging too much based on ownership projections and not trusting my initial reads enough. I think Charles Rosa might be able to gets a finish here at (I’m guessing) low ownership. Maybe 2nd round submission?

    I’ve seen a lot of people on Nzechukwu but I think Marques will be able to force the grappling just like he did against Slow Mike. Maybe not get the sub, but just dominate control time. I think people might be sleeping on just how much he’s been improving.

    I also think I’m fully fading OSP/Boser and Dalby/Means.

  • factorial89

    i really think the main event will go the distance.a fight to stack forme.volkov and st.preux are live dogs.

  • BigDaddy123

    why are these fights so early? so the first couple of fights are at 10am vegas time? is that weird for the fighters??

  • thevogaman

    @BigDaddy123 said...

    why are these fights so early?

    So we can get a bunch of overlay in the $15 tournament.

  • someclevername

    My guess on it starting earlier would be so it’s over before the NBA starts Saturday night on ESPN.

    Really happy to see two of my favorite fighters, OSP & Prachnio, on this card.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Really happy to see two of my favorite fighters, OSP & Prachnio, on this card.

    Prachnio has to be a fade for me here. Ike is awful, but he seems to be pretty durable. Since Prachnio isn’t jumping face first into big counters anymore (hopefully), I’m thinking he wins a one-sided, striking decision that scores like 70 points.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Prachnio has to be a fade for me here. Ike is awful, but he seems to be pretty durable. Since Prachnio isn’t jumping face first into big counters anymore (hopefully), I’m thinking he wins a one-sided, striking decision that scores like 70 points.

    Yeah, it’ll be Ike or pass for me here. I refuse to play Prachnio and he may burn me again (much like another favorite of mine, Paul Craig) but nah. I shan’t be clicking on a 9k Marcin Prachnio.

  • someclevername

    The height/reach difference between Shavkat & Prazeres is going to be a sight.

  • thevogaman

    @factorial89 said...

    i really think the main event will go the distance.a fight to stack forme.volkov and st.preux are live dogs.

    I don’t know what to make of the main event. Seems like Gane needs a KO or to land 4 takedowns to make the optimal… and I don’t think either is that likely. I expect Gane to stick and move to win a decision.

    But I think we’re seeing Volkov 2.0 since the Blaydes fight. He’s using that extra weight to really sit down on his strikes and he just seems way more dangerous than he used to. I might go underweight to Gane and match the field on Volkov.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Justin Jaynes is betting entire fight purse on himself

    See if he was smart, he’d have bet the under 2.5 and then take a dive in the 3rd round if it gets there. Free money.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    See if he was smart, he’d have bet the under 2.5 and then take a dive in the 3rd round if it gets there. Free money.

    “As soon as the betting line comes out between Justin Jaynes and Charles Rosa, I’m putting my entire fight contract on myself, and my coaches are doing that as well,” Jaynes said.

    His coaches:

  • iron_tactics

    @someclevername said...

    Justin Jaynes is betting entire fight purse on himself

    So, he will not only fight for your money, he’s gonna be fighting for his own win bonus, performance of the night bonus, and a possible 60k (I think that’s right, 25k on +145).

    I’m all for it, and that makes me want to bet against Jaynes now because i’ve seen the UFC ground and pound feel good stories to ducking dust too much

  • someclevername

    @iron_tactics said...

    I’m all for it, and that makes me want to bet against Jaynes now because i’ve seen the UFC ground and pound feel good stories to fucking dust too much

    lol that is true. Poor Walt Harris never gonna win again!

    Yeah, it is much more in line with the way things go if Jaynes has bet his rent $$ and loses it all. Rosa also with a pretty lengthy W-L streak and is due for his win now.

  • someclevername

    Holding Cannonier brand crystals while sending Moicano telepathic messages to go for the takedown and work for a sub. I just can’t imagine he’s that popular at $9400 and he has shown a nice ceiling with this path. Worried he gets clipped again though and $6800 for Herbert is pretty nice. Decisions, decisions.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Holding Cannonier brand crystals while sending Moicano telepathic messages to go for the takedown and work for a sub. I just can’t imagine he’s that popular at $9400 and he has shown a nice ceiling with this path. Worried he gets clipped again though and $6800 for Herbert is pretty nice. Decisions, decisions.

    Yeah, there is a ton of volatility with some fights that have really wide price disparities. Herbert, Wells, Villanueva, Pineda, and Jaynes could all get first round finishes and I wouldn’t be shocked… And all 5 could lose too.

  • someclevername

    Not sure the degree to which I’ll tinker in the morning, but currently have Herbert. Mainly as a fade on Moicano’s chin, but that could be overblown idk. Getting finished by Aldo, KZ & Fizzy – I mean those are pretty good guys. His defense is allowing him to get hit right on the button though (Aldo might have started w/a body shot can’t recall) and Herbert has some power – he dropped Trinaldo who has an insane chin. He actually looked good in that fight…well, til he got KO’d lol. Trinaldo is a pretty tough debut. Anyway, I fear the takedown if Moicano wants to go that route, but for $6800 (and low ownership?) I might just have to roll the dice.

    I would have taken Emeev but nooooo. Now I have a $9200 Warlley Alves in my lineup. Thanks, I hate it. Wells hasn’t fought since September 2019, big step up in comp and coming in on a week’s notice – c’mon, Alves. C’mon, man!

    Have Ike cos he’s going to go forward and headhunt. That might be enough. Or I lose to Prachnio again and retire to the mountains with no internet.

    Pineda/Jaynes definitely in play for that 1st round finish, agree, but passing on both. I will be rooting for Jaynes though lol.

  • thedkexperience

    Gane is one of those guys that I’ve decided I’m just going to take every single time until he loses. Rakhmonov might move into that group with a win too. Tricky fights for both of them but I’m all in on Gane and 2/3rds in on Rak.

    Lots of live submission fighters today too. I might have PTSD from Paul Craig’s recent win but I fear for some fighters limbs today. Stoliarenko has a lot of arm bars for a big underdog.

  • thedkexperience

    @thevogaman said...

    Lately I’ve been hedging too much based on ownership projections and not trusting my initial reads enough. I think Charles Rosa might be able to gets a finish here at (I’m guessing) low ownership. Maybe 2nd round submission?

    I’ve seen a lot of people on Nzechukwu but I think Marques will be able to force the grappling just like he did against Slow Mike. Maybe not get the sub, but just dominate control time. I think people might be sleeping on just how much he’s been improving.

    I also think I’m fully fading OSP/Boser and Dalby/Means.

    I’ve been focused too much on trying to get wins. I need to go back to my strategy of picking 6 finishes even if I risk 6 finish losses. Watching this stuff every week is slowly making me worse at gambling on it.

    Also, I agree with every word of your post.

  • thedkexperience

    @someclevername said...

    The height/reach difference between Shavkat & Prazeres is going to be a sight.

    As someone who is 5’7 and has lost like 60 pounds to get to 240 … I hope Prazeres loses me money.

  • thedkexperience

    @someclevername said...

    Holding Cannonier brand crystals while sending Moicano telepathic messages to go for the takedown and work for a sub. I just can’t imagine he’s that popular at $9400 and he has shown a nice ceiling with this path. Worried he gets clipped again though and $6800 for Herbert is pretty nice. Decisions, decisions.

    I took him so … you got that going for you.

    Also, let’s be real. Jaynes owes someone a lot of money and is like 4 days away from a very not feel good story.

    Or he’s bat shit insane.

    Probably both.

  • joephoto

    @someclevername said...

    Decisions, decisions.

    I hate waiting for judges decisions.

  • iron_tactics

    @someclevername said...

    lol that is true. Poor Walt Harris never gonna win again!

    Yeah, it is much more in line with the way things go if Jaynes has bet his rent $$ and loses it all. Rosa also with a pretty lengthy W-L streak and is due for his win now.

    Yeah……………….
    now that it’s time to make lineups, law of averages, the feel good story has to average out and some wins after this massive losing streak right?
    Part of me wants to ride with Jaynes, good to know a fighter is fighting for his money and in parallel yours too.

    I don’t like that he didn’t bet on himself to get a finish, I want to avoid decisions at all costs, I want to avoid Fares Ziam points at all costs, and if he isn’t going to blitz Rosa then I think the odds go further over to Rosa. Worked like a charm for Minner. Give Rosa some breathing room and you see how he does if you watch the Burgos fight. Still got KO’d cause it’s Burgos but he’s more pressure and counter snipe then he is blitzing.

  • iron_tactics

    My last little bit and I need to finish lineups:

    I might 100% Prachnio here. I keep hearing about how he has this glass chin and when I think about it,
    Ankolaev
    Mike Rodriguez
    Sam Alvey (2018 not 2021)

    What do those 3 have in common with Villanueva? That they’re heavyweights? Over a large sample size if I saw a fighter had been knocked out by those 3 at some point i’d be like “yeah that makes sense”. Not “Mr. Glass Chin!”. Like if he fought Boser and got knocked out by a glancing jab then i’d 100% agree. The bad thing is, I don’t think he has the sample size to confirm whether he does or not. BUT, going three rounds with Rountree is a promising sign that it is more LIKELY that having a glass chin is not the case, and more that Ankolaev, Rodriguez, Alvey hit ducking hard

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    I took him so … you got that going for you.

    Also, let’s be real. Jaynes owes someone a lot of money and is like 4 days away from a very not feel good story.

    Or he’s bat shit insane.

    Probably both.

    Moicano/Herbert – which one are you on? I haven’t had my coffee yet. My reading comprehension graded at a D level currently.

    @AlexBehunin posted a video of Jaynes talking about why he bet on himself (spoiler: great training camp + confidence in himself/his coaches), what happens if he loses (spoiler: been broke before nbd) and what he thinks of everyone’s opinions (spoiler: he doesn’t give AF). Hopefully no loan sharks are involved and to paraphrase Patrick Swayze in Roadhouse, I’m going to be positive about his situation until it’s time to not be positive about his situation lol.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).