STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • someclevername

    Saturday, September 18th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN+, 6pm CT)

    Main Event
    Anthony Smith (205.5) vs Ryan Spann (206)

    Co-Main Event
    Ion Cutelaba (205) vs Devin Clark (206)

    Ariane Lipski (126) vs Mandy Böhm (125.5)
    Arman Tsarukyan (155.5) vs Christos Giagos (155.5)
    Nate Maness (135) vs Tony Gravely (135.5)
    Joaquin Buckley (184.5) vs Antônio Arroyo (186)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 3pm CT)

    Mike Rodriguez (202) vs Tafon Nchukwi (204.5)
    Pannie Kianzad (136) vs Raquel Pennington (135.5)
    Rong Zhu (158)* vs Brandon Jenkins (155.5)
    Montel Jackson (136) vs JP Buys (136)
    Erin Blanchfield (125) vs Sarah Alpar (126)
    Impa Kasanganay (170.5) vs Carlston Harris (170)
    Gustavo Lopez (135) vs Heili Alateng (136)
    Emily Whitmire (125) vs Hannah Goldy (125)

    *Zhu missed the lightweight limit by 2 pounds

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • jki7p6

    All the Gravely is my initial reaction.

  • smonger19

    It’s strange that DK doesn’t have pricing for the Whitmire-Goldy fight. I had to recheck and that fight was announced on 8/23, well before a couple of other fights. Is it possible that DK isn’t using this fight?

  • caleb21scott

    DK is usualy pretty slow to update the player pool. My guess is it will be updated over the next day or so

  • thevogaman

    Motta probably in that free square territory now. I’ll go 100% on that fight and overweight to both. I’ll be playing lightly this week after a rough week 1 from NFL.

  • BigDaddy123

    @thevogaman said...

    Motta probably in that free square territory now. I’ll go 100% on that fight and overweight to both. I’ll be playing lightly this week after a rough week 1 from NFL.

    motta being a free square is like playing eli mitchel this week for $5000 as uber chalk. I’ll play Kittle in his place there. here, i’ll take van camp or fade fight fully

  • thevogaman

    @BigDaddy123 said...

    motta being a free square is like playing eli mitchel this week for $5000 as uber chalk. I’ll play Kittle in his place there. here, i’ll take van camp or fade fight fully

    It’s a bold strategy that makes sense, but fading a -300 at $7900 in MMA DFS is a little different than that though. This is more like saying, I’m going to fade a $5000 CMC this week because he’ll be too chalky. I agree to go way overweight on Van Camp, but these free square situations in MMA have been paying off pretty consistently. You’re guaranteeing that you get a dog winner (almost) by going 100% on the fight.

    Curious what Van Camp’s salary will be… and now that Dakota Bush is out, if they find someone for Zhu to fight, we might have 2 free squares.

    Edit: Actually my NFL analogy was bad. It would be more like CMC getting hurt at practice and fading Chuba Hubbard at $4500 because he’d be chalk.

    Double edit: Zhu vs. (the kid that knocked out Jacob Kilburn) Brandon Jenkins. Hard to say how the public will go on that one to nail down a price.

  • thevogaman

    A few thoughts on this card:

    The 3 spots that look off to me are Kasanganay/Harris, Nchukwi/Rodriguez, and Buckley/Arroyo. All 3 of the favorites in those fights are just as bad as their opponents and in the case of Impa/Harris, I think the line is completely upside down. Joaquin Buckley is KO or bust against a guy in Muniz with a good chin and a huge size advantage. Nchukwi is slower than molasses and is going to lose the standup badly against a much bigger Rodriguez.

    Tsarukyan is probably a lock to win, but I would think he easily wins a striking match and doesn’t crack 100. Probably the same for Gravely.

    So that leads me to Jackson, Blanchfield, Smith, and Cutelaba as my only pay-ups. I’m curious to see what the ownership projections look like because I don’t think Blanchfield will be popular and could be a huge leverage piece.

  • OSP

    @thevogaman said...

    A few thoughts on this card:

    The 3 spots that look off to me are Kasanganay/Harris, Nchukwi/Rodriguez, and Buckley/Arroyo. All 3 of the favorites in those fights are just as bad as their opponents and in the case of Impa/Harris, I think the line is completely upside down. Joaquin Buckley is KO or bust against a guy in Muniz with a good chin and a huge size advantage. Nchukwi is slower than molasses and is going to lose the standup badly against a much bigger Rodriguez.

    Tsarukyan is probably a lock to win, but I would think he easily wins a striking match and doesn’t crack 100. Probably the same for Gravely.

    So that leads me to Jackson, Blanchfield, Smith, and Cutelaba as my only pay-ups. I’m curious to see what the ownership projections look like because I don’t think Blanchfield will be popular and could be a huge leverage piece.

    I dont have the same take with buckley, i think arroyo gets bullied too easily and will get finished fairly easily. Re-watching his fight against winn shows serious flaws in arroyo’s game and i think he gets smoked in the first by being pressured into the fence with flurry and finished by the better striker. The rest of the takes are pretty spot on with what i am thinking but i will definitely say i hate the pricing on this card and dont like anything between 7700-8900 which makes for a major headaches in creating lineups. Have the feeling the winning lineup will have one of the fighters from lipski/bohm or alateng/lopez and i hate both of those fights in theory.

  • factorial89

    erin blanchfield is at -380 but should be -600.

  • joephoto

    Thoughts of stacking Zhu-Jenkins.
    You can add in all top guys if you do.
    But it predicts to be low volume for points. Hmmm.

  • Mccurds13

    @joephoto said...

    Thoughts of stacking Zhu-Jenkins.
    You can add in all top guys if you do.
    But it predicts to be low volume for points. Hmmm.

    I’m stacking it in cash, although I imagine that’ll be fairly popular. GPP I’ll have one in every lineup probably and hope one of them scores well but won’t stack it

  • OSP

    @joephoto said...

    Thoughts of stacking Zhu-Jenkins.
    You can add in all top guys if you do.
    But it predicts to be low volume for points. Hmmm.

    I dont ever like stacking fights in a GPP unless its a 5rd female fight…however i dont think its totally insane in this spot. Both guys headhunt and are capable of a fast KO and if it goes to decision i feel like Zhu will land several takedowns throughout the fight. I dont think this is a low scoring matchup

  • someclevername

    @OSP said...

    unless its a 5rd female fight

    It’s been a trying week and I see it’s continuing into the weekend cos I initially read this as “fird” like first, second, fird. Strugglin’.

  • joephoto

    @someclevername said...

    Strugglin’.

    Wake up Clever !

    Get ready to RUMBLE !!!

  • thebigboy

    Hannah Goldy gonna break the slate and ruin my night I can feel it

  • OSP

    seems like nobody cares about this card..possible overlay everywhere

  • someclevername

    GL everyone

  • yisman

    Zhu/Jenkins fight mispriced. Noticed it late.

    Turned my whole lineup upside down and couldn’t get Blanchfield in any longer.

    Ended up being a 2v2. Nchuki/Spann vs. Arroyo/Smith

  • yisman

    DK:

    Jackson 60.3%
    I think second is Zhu at 43%. Big gap.

  • iron_tactics

    @thebigboy said...

    Hannah Goldy gonna break the slate and ruin my night I can feel it

    By making Whitmire optimal

  • OSP

    @iron_tactics said...

    By making Whitmire optimal

    too soon?

  • iron_tactics

    @iron_tactics said...

    By making Whitmire optimal

    I could not be happier about this being wrong

    Have 23/28 lineups with Goldy

  • someclevername

    @thebigboy said...

    Hannah Goldy gonna break the slate and ruin my night I can feel it

    lol

  • MrGRAMBO

    @thebigboy said...

    Hannah Goldy gonna break the slate and ruin my night I can feel it

    You and 89% of entries…… I have 0. Fantastic.

  • CityBoy410

    @OSP said...

    too soon?

    Lol

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).