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  • someclevername

    Saturday, October 23rd, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN+, 3pm CT)

    Main Event
    Paulo Costa (204.5)* vs Marvin Vettori (204)*

    Co-Main Event
    Grant Dawson (156) vs Ricky Glenn (155.5)

    Jessica-Rose Clark (135.5) vs Joselyne Edwards (134.5)
    Alex Caceres (146) vs Seung Woo Choi (145.5)
    Francisco Trinaldo (169.5) vs Dwight Grant (170)
    Nick Negumereanu (204.5) vs Ike Villanueva (205)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 12pm CT)

    Jun Yong Park (185.5) vs Gregory Rodrigues (185.5)
    Mason Jones (156) vs David Onama (153.5)
    Tabatha Ricci (115) vs Maria Oliveira (115)
    Jamie Pickett (184.5) vs Laureano Staropoli (185.5)
    Khama Worthy (155) vs Jai Herbert (155)
    Jeff Molina (125) vs Daniel Da Silva (125)
    Livinha Souza (115) vs Randa Markos (115)
    Jonathan Martinez (135) vs Zviad Lazishvili (135)

    *Costa/Vettori changed from middleweight to 195 catchweight to light heavyweight

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • smonger19

    I dare say that this may be the best card ever for nicknames:

    Bruce Leeroy
    The Body Snatcher
    The Iron Turtle
    Robocop
    The Black Country Banger
    The Brazilian Gangsta

    and of course, The Supreme Fighting Machine

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    I dare say that this may be the best card ever for nicknames:

    Bruce Leeroy
    The Body Snatcher
    The Iron Turtle
    Robocop
    The Black Country Banger
    The Brazilian Gangsta

    and of course, The Supreme Fighting Machine

    Hey now, don’t forget about Baby Shark!

    If only Worthy had listened to this forum a long time ago and officially changed his from “Deathstar’ to THE SUPREME FIGHTING MACHINE. He could be undefeated in the UFC, but nooooo. Now he’s up against it in a loser leaves town match, smh.

  • thevogaman

    Any word on why Daniel Lacerda is now Daniel Da Silva? I know Nina Ansaroff got changed to Nunes mid-week and got subbed by Dern. But Montserrat Ruiz got changed to Conejo mid-week and headlocked Cheyanne Buys and ended up on the optimal lineup.

    Need salaries for the Mason Jones fight, but I think there’s a Jonathan Martinez vs. some Georgian guy with a bunch of Zs in his name fight that needs added, too.

  • thedkexperience

    I never post on here midweek but I just got a push notification that Costa currently weighs 211 pounds.

    Josephus! More wine!

  • caleb21scott

    How do we feel about Vettori’s takedowns now that the fight is at a catchweight 195lbs. Costa has pretty good TD defense as is and feel like the matchup just got a little tougher for Vettori.

  • someclevername

    Does Costa even make the 195?

    Could be a good buy low spot for him. Certainly possible he puts up a nice score at only $7600. I still lean to Vettori though. He’s been pretty durable, gone the 5 before & his confidence really doesn’t waver. Who knows where Costa’s head is at right now – lots of jokes made about the Izzy fight, but man it really does seem like he broke him mentally. He’s just not behaving or speaking in a way that makes me want to run and throw money on him.

    Costa might defend some tds early, but Marvin isn’t going to stop attempting them. Neither are exactly high IQ individuals, but I trust Vettori to follow some kind of gameplan. More importantly, I trust him not to quit. Costa is going to have to put him out – which he can. If he doesn’t…Vettori will wear him down & start landing tds as the fight progresses. I think he gets a 4th/5th round finish. Really want to see the weigh-ins though.

    *Well, now seeing it’s been changed to 205 per a tweet from @marc_raimondi. Ridiculous lol come on.

  • caleb21scott

    @someclevername said...

    Does Costa even make the 195?

    Could be a good buy low spot for him. Certainly possible he puts up a nice score at only $7600. I still lean to Vettori though. He’s been pretty durable, gone the 5 before & his confidence really doesn’t waver. Who knows where Costa’s head is at right now – lots of jokes made about the Izzy fight, but man it really does seem like he broke him mentally. He’s just not behaving or speaking in a way that makes me want to run and throw money on him.

    Costa might defend some tds early, but Marvin isn’t going to stop attempting them. Neither are exactly high IQ individuals, but I trust Vettori to follow some kind of gameplan. More importantly, I trust him not to quit. Costa is going to have to put him out – which he can. If he doesn’t…Vettori will wear him down & start landing tds as the fight progresses. I think he gets a 4th/5th round finish. Really want to see the weigh-ins though.

    *Well, now seeing it’s been changed to 205 per a tweet from @marc_raimondi. Ridiculous lol come on.

    Costa was undefeated before the Izzy fight. I dont like to think of it as his confidence is broken I like to think of it as we have a humble Costa before us thats more driven then ever. I like this narrative because I can put him in my DK lineup and he makes everything else work haha

  • someclevername

    @caleb21scott said...

    Costa was undefeated before the Izzy fight. I dont like to think of it as his confidence is broken I like to think of it as we have a humble Costa before us thats more driven then ever. I like this narrative because I can put him in my DK lineup and he makes everything else work haha

    Humble Costa 2.0 FTW

    Yeah, Paulo was wrecking shop before that Izzy fight, wasn’t he. Too bad he had the absolute worst outcome in which he did nothing in the fight, showed zero fight IQ or heart and got finished in humiliating fashion. MMA fans are also famously level-headed and compassionate, so I doubt anyone has given him a hard time about it lol.

    Man, I really wanted to play Vettori here, but idk now. Moving it up to light heavy is crazy. I might approach this like I do Cutelaba fights and take Costa for the early finish upside, laugh if he gets ktfo. Win-win.

    On one hand, Marvin is not a small guy either. He’s not as big as Costa, but he ain’t no tiny middleweight. On the other hand, *this getting moved to 205 is such an advantage for Costa – which he knows and which is why he clearly never had any intentions of cutting. Complete dbag move, but we trying to win a GPP here lol.

    One final note in Costa’s favor – not all, but a majority of folks are now rooting for Marvin and want to see Costa get faceplanted. Costa 1st round body kick to punches on the ground finish incoming.

  • someclevername

    Should Jonathan Martinez be the dog here?

  • caleb21scott

    @someclevername said...

    Should Jonathan Martinez be the dog here?

    Those Georgia fighters are tough. After watching the tape on Lavishvili I think he has the slight advantage on Martinez

  • BigDaddy326

    Rose clark looks like a stripper/hooker/gangster/coked out white chick hot mess

  • CityBoy410

    @caleb21scott said...

    Those Georgia fighters are tough. After watching the tape on Lavishvili I think he has the slight advantage on Martinez

    I’m usually always all in on Georgian fighters, just my thing you know. Lol

  • BigDaddy326

    @CityBoy410 said...

    I’m usually always all in on Georgian fighters, just my thing you know. Lol

    Does lavishili constantly wrestle like divalishi?

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Yeah, Paulo was wrecking shop before that Izzy fight, wasn’t he. Too bad he had the absolute worst outcome in which he did nothing in the fight, showed zero fight IQ or heart and got finished in humiliating fashion. MMA fans are also famously level-headed and compassionate, so I doubt anyone has given him a hard time about it lol.

    Yeah, but MMA bettors get influenced strongly by recency bias. It definitely doesn’t look good for him, but if neither of these guys ever fought Izzy, Costa would be the favorite here. I can remember the recency bias making Whittaker a dog to Cannonier after his lost to Izzy.

    The headlines and the weight changes are a bad look and I don’t blame anyone for thinking Costa is done, but I’m really looking forward to this fight… best main event we’ve seen since Volkanovski/Ortega.

    I don’t think Vettori will be able to use his grappling to win rounds until Costa probably gasses in the 3rd round. I doubt that Vettori could get him down early in the fight even if Costa did make 186. I think it’s a close fight no matter what. Where Costa wins 1 & 2; Vettori wins 4 & 5 (if it can last that long). Possibly whoever wins the 3rd wins the fight.

  • thevogaman

    @BigDaddy326 said...

    Does lavishili constantly wrestle like divalishi?

    He’s pretty good. He doesn’t have that relentless cardio like Merab and he’s not nearly as athletic, but he’s got a better submission game and top game. Hard to know about his durability and what happens if he can’t get Martinez down though. I think the Z-man might smash here for Draftkings with a first round sub.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, but MMA bettors get influenced strongly by recency bias. It definitely doesn’t look good for him, but if neither of these guys ever fought Izzy, Costa would be the favorite here. I can remember the recency bias making Whittaker a dog to Cannonier after his lost to Izzy.

    I am very surprised more money has come in on Vettori since learning this was being moved up in weight. It makes me want to play Costa after initially being on Vettori. My overall thoughts on the fight are largely unchanged – Paulo early, Marvin late. I think not cutting hardly anything and knowing he wasn’t going to cut hardly anything just helps out the Paulo early cause.

    I was one of those idiots that took Cannonier over Whittaker, but in my defense I really thought his crystals would play a larger role lol.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I think the Z-man might smash here for Draftkings with a first round sub.

    Makes me think of Tom Zenk, RIP.

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    He’s pretty good. He doesn’t have that relentless cardio like Merab and he’s not nearly as athletic, but he’s got a better submission game and top game. Hard to know about his durability and what happens if he can’t get Martinez down though. I think the Z-man might smash here for Draftkings with a first round sub.

    It’s interesting. I haven’t seen anything, just read a little. Merab said that Lazishvili is a better wrestler than him. He just could be saying that to try to sell Lazishvili who has only had two real MMA fights, but an impressive fighting background.

    I laughed when I saw that Laz’s first 10 fights were all against 0-0 fighters. It sounds like it was just hard to find opponents. The way I see it though, he retired 7 of his first 10 opponents as they never fought again.

    The other thing I read is that Laz is good at catching the leg, but Martinez doesn’t throw many leg kicks (if I remember correctly). I really don’t know what to do with this one, but think I should have one or the other in most lineups.

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    The other thing I read is that Laz is good at catching the leg,

    I watched his fight vs Ricky Steele earlier and that is exactly how it started going south for Ricky.

    I hesitate to go against anyone that Merab is selling, but probably going to end up on an island w/Martinez on this one. He was massively overvalued vs Grant (which, shout out, vogaman called), but he’s shown a lot of promise and I’m not ready to write him off yet. Could be just a terrible stylistic matchup for him and I need to look up some fights where he was taken down. Also, full disclosure, in honor of taking Paulo Costa tomorrow I am drinking tonight. Not wine, mind you, but the end result will be the same. Poor choices, poor results lol.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Also, full disclosure, in honor of taking Paulo Costa tomorrow I am drinking tonight. Not wine, mind you, but the end result will be the same. Poor choices, poor results lol.

    I think I’m going to drink a bottle of red wine. Good thinking.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I think I’m going to drink a bottle of red wine. Good thinking.

    Worst hangovers? Red wine is up there. Just a horrible life experience. I haven’t had wine of any sort in so long… cos it’s a killer. Wine hangovers are just deadly and red? You ever want to feel like someone is drilling directly into your temple? Drink a shit ton of red wine. Tequila messed me up pretty bad. I was like 19 and OOF. Just the smell of it now – like 22 years later – makes me gag. Rum *was fine, vodka *was fine, beer is fine. Gin is rat poison.

    I just hope none of the people in my lineup are drinking at all lol

  • joephoto

    I had the nuts lineup in the Mon-Thur NFL. Reaped 1st place in about 30 contests. Best DFS night for me ever.
    Playing just for fun this weekend.
    Costa is my late lineup Capt.

  • someclevername

    @joephoto said...

    I had the nuts lineup in the Mon-Thur NFL. Reaped 1st place in about 30 contests. Best DFS night for me ever.
    Playing just for fun this weekend.
    Costa is my late lineup Capt.

    The confidence this gives me in Costa is unreal lol – congrats, Joe! 1st place “in about 30 contests” jesus lol good for you, man! Always killin’ it!

  • OSP

    Is anybody giving Onama a chance here? Ive seen several of his fights and went back and rewatched whats out there… I know Mason Jones has plenty of hype but Onama is way more live then the odds would suggest IMO. Im not sure this kid is ready for the this caliber opponent because he hasnt faced anyone yet, but he has some skills. I think he is faster then Jones and is a good counter puncher, gonna throw at least a couple darts at him for sure

  • joephoto

    @someclevername said...

    The confidence this gives me in Costa is unreal lol – congrats, Joe! 1st place “in about 30 contests” jesus lol good for you, man! Always killin’ it!

    From what I’ve read Costa wouldn’t be interested in a 5 round fight. And a 2 rounder is a tossup.
    But I could always be wrong.

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