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  • LeRoiStephon

    • Blogger of the Month

    Yes…. Bruce Leroy is headlining a card!! Prices have yet to release, but a lot of the odds for the fight are already up!! There are a lot of green and debuting fighters on this card which is going to make it hard for average joe to have lots of success this week!! I’m thinking that if Yair can’t get Leroy out of there quick, he could lose the fight as all those kicks he throws SAPS his energy to nothing which could make him super useless in the last 2 rounds!! I’ll have exposure but won’t be too heavy on him!! The HW fight between Ledet and Sherman is gonna see somebody get DROPPED for sure!! Moroz has a super size advantage over her opponent Danielle Taylor!! Tybura vs. Pesta could be a sleeper! What are your thoughts?!?!?

  • kevin8053

    • 206

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #28

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2020 NASCAR Live Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings King of the Beach Finalist

    Yair is going to murder Bruce Leroy. Word around the Chevy is – don’t hedge this one!

  • cleanslate

    Any reason you created two separate threads for this event?

    Also, was anyone able to find video of the Justin Ledet vs Jon Hill fight? I’m having a really hard time finding it.

  • bigtroll04

    really like Bermudez on the card plus leans to swanson and leites p.s. taking every dog in main events and hedge dfs plays with prop bets

  • LeRoiStephon

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sorry guy.. I thought the other one got deleted so I made a new one!!! My bad!!

  • Divine_Prodigy

    That main event is a great toss up , could go either way . Alex Caceres looked great his last fight against Cole Miller , Yair did too against Fili….so this fight can go either way …I like Yair slightly but he could definitely lose , Bruce Leeroy is still inconsistent but this is deff a barn burner .

    Talking to bbbomb , we agreed that Ishihara versus Gutierrez ….Ishihara should win easily . However he may be popular , but the card is one for hardcore who know these guys . Regular players won’t know who Ishihara is I hope .

    One dog I like is Zak Cummings (he trains with the new champ T-Wood) and his overall well roundedness should do well against Santiago

    Leites over Camozzi . I lean Ledet over Sherman. I’m not in love with Moroz’s striking or high or her as a fighter but that fight against Danielle is a sneaky one for DFS purposes

  • bosoxfan0509

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    How do you guys see this playing out where Caceres can beat Yair? I don’t see him being strong enough to KO him, good enough on the ground to sub him, and don’t really see him winning a decision either. Yair seems to me like the better version of Caceres in every aspect of where the fight could go. Just want to get your alls thoughts on it.

  • LeRoiStephon

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bosoxfan0509 said...

    How do you guys see this playing out where Caceres can beat Yair? I don’t see him being strong enough to KO him, good enough on the ground to sub him, and don’t really see him winning a decision either. Yair seems to me like the better version of Caceres in every aspect of where the fight could go. Just want to get your alls thoughts on it.

    FATIGUE bruh… Think about the third rd of every Yair fight so far… He starts pulling guard because he’s so exhausted from those millions of he threw… Wonderboy used to gas like that too until he learned to pace himself better… If Yair doesn’t pace himself, Leroy takes the last 3 rounds IN THEORY!! Yair did make some solid adjustments to his last fight by using his wrestling a bunch though so who knows what fight IQ improvements he’ll make for this one!

  • cleanslate

    @LeRoiStephon said...

    Sorry guy.. I thought the other one got deleted so I made a new one!!! My bad!!

    No worries man, I was just curious.

    If anyone can find film of Justin Ledet’s last fight please post it on here, it would be much appreciated.

  • gravycakes

    @LeRoiStephon said...

    FATIGUE bruh… Think about the third rd of every Yair fight so far… He starts pulling guard because he’s so exhausted from those millions of he threw… Wonderboy used to gas like that too until he learned to pace himself better… If Yair doesn’t pace himself, Leroy takes the last 3 rounds IN THEORY!! Yair did make some solid adjustments to his last fight by using his wrestling a bunch though so who knows what fight IQ improvements he’ll make for this one!

    Leroi taking Leroy? A little bias here due to the name similarities I see…

  • LeRoiStephon

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gravycakes said...

    Leroi taking Leroy? A little bias here due to the name similarities I see…

    LOL.. No name bias here. I’m picking Yair, but Bruce got a chance fo sho.. Should be super exciting!!

  • cleanslate

    Man, I just spent a ton of time over the past few days looking deeper into this card and I feel like I have a pretty solid read on it. Which means this will be an awful event for me, lol. I can’t wait to see pricing either way.

  • cleanslate

    @LeRoiStephon said...

    Yes…. Bruce Leroy is headlining a card!! Prices have yet to release, but a lot of the odds for the fight are already up!! There are a lot of green and debuting fighters on this card which is going to make it hard for average joe to have lots of success this week!! I’m thinking that if Yair can’t get Leroy out of there quick, he could lose the fight as all those kicks he throws SAPS his energy to nothing which could make him super useless in the last 2 rounds!! I’ll have exposure but won’t be too heavy on him!! The HW fight between Ledet and Sherman is gonna see somebody get DROPPED for sure!! Moroz has a super size advantage over her opponent Danielle Taylor!! Tybura vs. Pesta could be a sleeper! What are your thoughts?!?!?

    I think Yair wins but agree that Caceres does have a shot. I don’t think the skill gap between the two is quite as big as people might think. I’m leaning Sherman over Ledet but I can’t find any film of Ledet, so that sucks. I’m hoping I can find his last fight. It’s probably a good fight to hedge either way.

    I also love Moroz, will be interested to see her price. I might actually fade the Tybura vs Pesta fight as I have a feeling like Pesta is going to take a lay and pray approach to a boring 3 round D win. Tybura has the higher finishing upside, so if he is the underdog and priced down I think he makes for a decent gamble on a few teams.

  • DontThrowPick6

    Chase SHerman should have a big size advantage, no? Been fighting at HW and other dude is a small LHW as far as im aware

  • bbbomb

    • Blogger of the Month

    prices are crazy this week

  • LeRoiStephon

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bbbomb said...

    prices are crazy this week

    This ish is wacky as ever this week… Ishihara seemed like a great moderate priced play… Now, without a 1st rd ko, he’s worthless… I bet you there will be a lot less ties without average joe being able to lean on Vegas so heavy!!

  • Divine_Prodigy

    What this guy said ^ …..these prices are throwing me for a loop and making construction hard

  • zelda3024

    @bbbomb said...

    prices are crazy this week

    Really crazy.. They have underdogs priced higher than Vegas favorites. Teymur, Tybruna,Ponzi, Gigliotti all Vegas favorites priced lower . Plus come on DK where is the $33.00 Qualifier into the Gotham??? They have 1 again 300.00 Qualifier. Not everyone wants to or can afford to shell out $300

  • cleanslate

    Agreed, pricing is insane, but I honestly love it, which scares the shit out of me, lol. I analyzed all of the fights without looking at Vegas odds and before pricing was out, and some of these guys are absolute steals to me.

    Ishi and McGee at the high end are easy fades, I actually think Steele and Gutierrez are priced down so ridiculously low that they are in play. However, given how soft the middle is, I might not even need a guy that cheap this week.

  • cleanslate

    @zelda3024 said...

    Really crazy.. They have underdogs priced higher than Vegas favorites. Teymur, Tybruna,Ponzi, Gigliotti all Vegas favorites priced lower . Plus come on DK where is the $33.00 Qualifier into the Gotham??? They have 1 again 300.00 Qualifier. Not everyone wants to or can afford to shell out $300

    I almost think that the person that sets the pricing mixed up the prices on certain fights and assigned the prices to the opposite guys by accident. Purely speculation though.

  • SunTszu

    • 204

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #42

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @cleanslate said...

    I think Yair wins but agree that Caceres does have a shot. I don’t think the skill gap between the two is quite as big as people might think. I’m leaning Sherman over Ledet but I can’t find any film of Ledet, so that sucks. I’m hoping I can find his last fight. It’s probably a good fight to hedge either way.

    I also love Moroz, will be interested to see her price. I might actually fade the Tybura vs Pesta fight as I have a feeling like Pesta is going to take a lay and pray approach to a boring 3 round D win. Tybura has the higher finishing upside, so if he is the underdog and priced down I think he makes for a decent gamble on a few teams.

    I am very interested in your take here and you are ahead of me in the research department. My take on Yair is that he will be at much less of a deficit due to the altitude, which means if the fight was to extend that Caceres is as likely to gas as Yair. I also love Moroz and feel that she will look to make a statement here. She also holds major physical advantages over Danielle (who not too long ago was knocked out cold in a fight) who would be better served as an Atomweight. Sherman/Ledet is one of those fights where I see Sherman early & Ledet late. Sherman doesn’t fight out of the first round. Ledet is a natural boxer who has gone multiple rounds, so while he will be at a size disadvantage, he will have both a punchers chance and likely a cardio advantage

  • cleanslate

    @SunTszu said...

    I am very interested in your take here and you are ahead of me in the research department. My take on Yair is that he will be at much less of a deficit due to the altitude, which means if the fight was to extend that Caceres is as likely to gas as Yair. I also love Moroz and feel that she will look to make a statement here. She also holds major physical advantages over Danielle (who not too long ago was knocked out cold in a fight) who would be better served as an Atomweight. Sherman/Ledet is one of those fights where I see Sherman early & Ledet late. Sherman doesn’t fight out of the first round. Ledet is a natural boxer who has gone multiple rounds, so while he will be at a size disadvantage, he will have both a punchers chance and likely a cardio advantage

    The elevation is a great point that I haven’t considered that much. I just think Caceres is probably capable of hanging with Yair on the feet. He also has significantly more experience against a consistently better level of competition. That being said, I think Yair is the better overall fighter and SHOULD win this fight. The intelligent approach for him would be to take Caceres down and work for a submission, where Caceres has been known to be very susceptible. If he follows that gameplan and doesn’t get baited into a striking battle I would expect him to get a fairly easy win. If he stands and bangs with Caceres he will probably win there as well, but it certainly gives Caceres a much better chance of pulling off the upset, which is what worries me a little bit.

    All that being said, the way that pricing ended up I didn’t end up on any Caceres as there was no need, and I did end up on a lot of Yair. He’s a way better price play than Ishi to me. McGee at 11.4k makes absolutely no sense. Even if he wins, 7 of his last 8 fights have gone to decision and the 8th fight he was the one that got KO’d. He hasn’t finished anyone since moving down to Welterweight and also hasn’t finished a fight in 6 years. The odds of him paying off that price tag are so slim that he is a -EV play 99/100 times imo. Steele might even have a chance of pulling off the upset, and you could argue if that fight ends in a finish it’s much more likely Steele would be the one finishing McGee than the other way around. McGee is also coming off a KO loss just a little less than 4 months ago, so has he fully recovered from that? You could argue that’s too quick of a turnaround coming off a KO.

    Moroz is my favorite fighter on this card for sure. The only chance Taylor has is if she can land one of her wild punches. She is severely undersized and has nowhere near the level of technique/overall talent as Moroz. I’m leaning much more heavy on Sherman, but took my 3 best lineups and hedged them with Ledet just in case since they are the exact same price. But Sherman hits and kicks like a monster, is WAY bigger, and the only fight he has lost that was by KO was a terrible stoppage IMO. I watched it and the ref jumped in way too quick. I really think he’s going to just overpower Ledet and get a quick finish. His leg kicks are so nasty and hard that he was even able to finish a fight that way. Boxers are notorious for being bad at stopping leg kicks, so if Ledet’s background is primarily boxing that makes me like Sherman that much more.

  • golferdude31

    • 993

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2016 King of Summer Champion

    Where do you find a fighter’s odds to finish inside distance? Can’t seem to find them for specific fighters anywhere….just round totals for the overall fight.

  • awalker11

    @golferdude31 said...

    Where do you find a fighter’s odds to finish inside distance? Can’t seem to find them for specific fighters anywhere….just round totals for the overall fight.

    I use bestfightodds.com and at the far right of each fighters name there is a down arrow. Click that for odds to finish stats and many others.

  • cleanslate

    Anyone else have any thoughts on the Sherman/Ledet fight? Tons of people seem to be leaning Ledet now.

  • bigcrip

    this is a weird card. weird fights and all the draftkings mispricings

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