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  • LeRoiStephon

    • Blogger of the Month

    At first I was picking Chiesa… But looking at film, if Lee can avoid giving his back in a scramble, I don’t see how he loses as his wrestling is superb and he is the MUCH better striker… Horcher should eat Devin Powell’s lunch.. I think the same will be said with Reyes Christensen.. I like Tim Means against Alex Garcia… Clay Guida is a live dog, but Erich Koch is a special talent and should easily outstrike the carpenter.. You SHOULD NEVER count the carpenter out though.. Boestch Henderson is a hard call, but I feel like Boestch is the only guy with DFS upside unless Hendricks gets that wrestling going… BUt POST USADA how many times does he realistically ground Boestch.. Stansbury over Kimball all day… What do you guys think?

  • grover123

    I haven’t watched film yet but I know for sure Chiesa has faced much better opponents. That doesn’t mean everything you said isn’t true though

  • iron_tactics

    Yep pretty much with Chiesa he can capitalize on any mistake Lee makes, some ring rust may give an edge to Lee but literal toss up imo. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Vegas give Lee the slight favor. There’s a couple fighters I think most will count out that may actually surprise everyone come Sunday, digging into tapes throughout the week.

  • zelda3024

    Chiesa vs Lee tough tough fight to call. You got Lee who has been recently active and coming off a big win. You got Chiesa who submitted Dariush which was not an easy out. Bad blood between the two makes for an even more interesting fight. I like Chiesa but in the world of MMA anything can happen.

    I hope Kimball chokes Stansbury out… Horcher all day long. Means I’m not sure about anymore he just gave up last fight but this fight he is at home and I think that should be motivation or at least we hope so.

    I agree Koch should win but Clay is not an easy out. Should be a good night of fights.

  • iron_tactics

    @zelda3024 said...

    Chiesa vs Lee tough tough fight to call. You got Lee who has been recently active and coming off a big win. You got Chiesa who submitted Dariush which was not an easy out. Bad blood between the two makes for an even more interesting fight. I like Chiesa but in the world of MMA anything can happen.

    I hope Kimball chokes Stansbury out… Horcher all day long. Means I’m not sure about anymore he just gave up last fight but this fight he is at home and I think that should be motivation or at least we hope so.

    I agree Koch should win but Clay is not an easy out. Should be a good night of fights.

    Does Kimball have that as a probability though? I was thinking maybe a TKO/KO from Kimball but he has this stupid habit of constantly brushing his hair back with his right hand and if i’m Stransbury i’d time that as an easy open but from what it looks like, is his road to victory would be to take Kimball down to the mat. He didn’t have a great debut and that trip really ruined him. Yeah, I really don’t see Powell winning this at all, haven’t found anything that would suggest otherwise yet.

  • grover123

    I watched tape on Lee and Chiesa, Lee has stand up, power and wrestling but Chiesa is world’s better on top. I think Lee can ko him or take him down and pound him out Chiesa stand up is pathetic.

  • grover123

    Any thoughts on Martin and case think I like case as a dog he has good scramble abilities. And very good stand up but I don’t know if he can stay up right. What do you guys think???

  • zelda3024

    @iron_tactics said...

    Does Kimball have that as a probability though? I was thinking maybe a TKO/KO from Kimball but he has this stupid habit of constantly brushing his hair back with his right hand and if i’m Stransbury i’d time that as an easy open but from what it looks like, is his road to victory would be to take Kimball down to the mat. He didn’t have a great debut and that trip really ruined him. Yeah, I really don’t see Powell winning this at all, haven’t found anything that would suggest otherwise yet.

    Stansbury has been a disappointment bad. Kimball could choke him out but yep it would be small odds that it happens, I would love to see it though. Kimball most likely if he finishes Stansbury would be by TKO/KO. At this point I have little faith in either fighter.

    Powell was in the right place at the right time Dana White just happened to be in town:) the dude he fought Jon Lemke, Powell all ready beat him before in the same manner by choke in the first round. Seemed just a bit staged.

  • iron_tactics

    Odds:
    +180 Boetsch vs Hendricks -210
    -115 Herrig vs Kish -105
    +320 Christensen vs Reyes —-
    -240 Means vs Garcia +205
    +170 Penn vs Siver -200
    +260 Guida vs Koch -310
    +285 Miranda vs Vettori -350
    -255 Esparza vs Moroz +215
    +300 Powell vs Horcher -365
    -140 Gordon vs Quinones +120
    -138 Martin vs Case +118
    -175 Stransbury vs Kimball +150

  • kswetnam1342

    Stack the main event?

  • afcangelo

    I’m split on the main event which probably means I’m gonna get this one wrong. I think Lee is the better all around fighter, he’s much better than Chiesa on the feet, his takedowns are also better, and cleaner too but what I’m worried about is Chiesa being taken down, scrambling and then locking up a sub. Now whether that’s taking the back during a scramble and making it RNC time, or a well timed guillotine, or a triangle, darce, head/arm….I don’t know. But I do have some pretty major concerns about Lee getting subbed out at some point in this fight. I usually don’t do this but I think I’m gonna be 50/50 or 60/40 or maybe 65/35 on the main.

    Like everyone else I’ve literally heard all week I love me some Dirty Bird in this matchup. Tim Means is a killer with his striking and if he can just avoid the early takedowns (knees!! time a knee Tim!!) I think he’ll not only be able to get his hand raised but earn a KO/TKO finish as well. I think it’s going to be RD 2 but if the pieces fall properly I can definitely see a RD 1. Either way I will have heavy exposure to Means tomorrow. Vettori I can’t figure out, about to watch more tape but he scares me tbh. Not sure why but he definitely does. Horcher will win, not sure if he finishes but he’ll definitely beat Powell, who like many have said has no business in the UFC.

    Finally I want to talk about what I’m expecting to be a very low owned fight. Esparza v Moroz. Now I really don’t want to say this, in fact it kind of makes me throw up in my mouth a little but Carla Esparza could win a GPP. There I said it. If Carla comes in ready to make a statement, utilizes her superior wrestling and takedowns, advances and maybe works some ground and pound, I can see 90+ from her in a decision, and I think this weekend with all the up in the air fights especially up top that might push you over the edge even at 8.9. There’s also a small chance she is able to take the back and find an RNC at some point but I think a decision is more likely. I don’t love Esparza but she’s legit. Former SW champ, lost to Joanna of course, comes back wins a decision (4 TD, 5 ADV) against Lima and then gets robbed in a decision loss to Markos (who is actually better than people think) and even still Carla with….4 TD and 4 ADV. In fact the only fight she hasn’t scored at least 4 TD…..Joanna Champion.

    -225 fav, not a great ITD but 3 rounds for what I’m expecting 5 TDs with advances? I think we’re looking around 80 points with a possible 90-100 if we’re lucky. And at what I have projected 18% ownership, I definitely want Esparza in both cash and GPP. Justine Kish as well, I like her price at 7.9k against Herrig, she comes forward constantly and continues to throw later into the fight. 30dec+70ss, 2 TD, ADV, REV That’s 80+ right there.

    Lowest I’m going on anything near a regular basis this weekend is Kimball and the more I look the more I don’t really love that and neither does Vegas. Punt on Christensen but only a punt.

  • gerddog

    Let’s get crazy….past couple of weeks the “confident” wins did not happen for me. Lol. So Garcia edges a dec, Clay stays active and wins, Christensen pulls out a stoppage on the ground….sorry, to much coffee makes me over think lineups. Haha

  • Tugglife2

    Miranda is my special play tonight. Like his experience and KO power.

    I thought about Esparza but feel like that will be a low point winner either way.

  • zelda3024

    @gerddog said...

    Let’s get crazy….past couple of weeks the “confident” wins did not happen for me. Lol. So Garcia edges a dec, Clay stays active and wins, Christensen pulls out a stoppage on the ground….sorry, to much coffee makes me over think lineups. Haha

    Boetsch knocks out Hendricks. Powell wins a dec. Chiesa and Lee fight to a draw :)

    One thing for real that does concern me if he was telling the truth is Hendricks saying he was sick all week with 102 temp.

  • callmetouch

    Let’s not forget Miranda was GPP gold a year back. If he can stop Vettoris takedown he will have the advantage standing. It’s tough to call though.

  • afcangelo

    Look I’ve been called crazy before and it’ll happen again…..I think Tim Boetsch knocks Johny out. Hell to continue the crazy trend I think BJ Penn can prove everybody wrong today. I don’t love it or even like it by any stretch but i do have about 10-15%

  • callmetouch

    Boetsch has power. But i see Hendricks taking him down over and over. You’re crazy to think BJ wins.

  • Tugglife2

    I like Kimball too. I find Stansbury highly ‘meh’ and overrated in this matchup. Kimball is a good value play for me. I love Penn as an MMA fan but dude hasn’t won in what, over 5 years? I think Siver will throw kicks all day and frustrate him.

  • iron_tactics

    Fight time

  • iron_tactics

    Kimball with the “Grizzly” punch

  • iron_tactics

    Have Gordon, and Horcher :(

  • Jacobkaiser1325

    First time player of MMA, don’t mean to ask a stupid question, but what is considered a good point total from a fighter? I have Horcher who got 62.5, is that alright or is it low?

  • iron_tactics

    @Jacobkaiser1325 said...

    First time player of MMA, don’t mean to ask a stupid question, but what is considered a good point total from a fighter? I have Horcher who got 62.5, is that alright or is it low?

    It’s bad for his price at 9.2k on DK

  • Jacobkaiser1325

    @iron_tactics said...

    It’s bad for his price at 9.2k on DK

    Just curious, What would be a good score? Like Venttoris 88.5?

  • acdawg712

    basically everyone’s score since the fs2 prelims started isn’t very good. Really want at least 11x or so. Gordon’s score is insane.

  • iron_tactics

    @Jacobkaiser1325 said...

    Just curious, What would be a good score? Like Venttoris 88.5?

    yeah about 10X the salary i’d say as a base line but really depends on how the rest of the card goes. When Gordon gets 138 at like 8.1 and Kimball gets 100 at 7.5k, the 60 from Horcher helps like 0 amounts unless all high priced fighters get like 60 which I doubt. This is for GPPs dunno what the rules are for cash.

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