STRATEGY FORUM

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  • someclevername

    Saturday, January 16th, 2021 | Etihad Arena | Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

    Main Card (ABC/ESPN+, 2pm CT)

    Main Event
    Max Holloway (146) vs Calvin Kattar (146)

    Co-Main Event
    Carlos Condit (171) vs Matt Brown (171)

    Santiago Ponzinibbio (171) vs Li Jingliang (170)
    Joaquin Buckley (185) vs Alessio Di Chirico (186)
    Punahele Soriano (186) vs Duško Todorović (186)

    Prelims (ESPN+, 11am CT)

    Wu Yanan (136) vs Joselyne Edwards (135)
    Carlos Felipe (264) vs Justin Tafa (265)
    Ramazan Emeev (171) vs David Zawada (170)
    Sarah Moras (136) vs Vanessa Melo (136)
    Austin Lingo (145) vs Jacob Kilburn (145)

    Hawes/Imavov has been cancelled

    Fight Odds

    Tapology FightCenter

  • someclevername

    We’re back, baby!

  • NewMike

    We’re going to kill it this year, with the new scoring system. Clearly we were just ahead of our time.

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    We’re going to kill it this year, with the new scoring system.

    Already preparing myself for when $9100 Cheesecake subs Melo at the 59 second mark of the 1st round.

  • CityBoy410

    What scoring change do y’all feel is the most significant change?

  • thevogaman

    @CityBoy410 said...

    What scoring change do y’all feel is the most significant change?

    I think it’s going to benefit wrestlers a lot. They’ll finally get points for control time and weak ground strikes. Little pitter patter slaps to the stomach or what-not on top are now 0.2 points.

    I look back to Jared Gordon/Chris Fishgold last year, where Gordon landed 241 total strikes and had 10:22 of control time, but he only got credit for 44 significant strikes. I think that’s like a 50+ point discrepancy.

    Edit: Chookagian/A. Shevchenko is another good example.

  • iron_tactics

    @thevogaman said...

    I think it’s going to benefit wrestlers a lot. They’ll finally get points for control time and weak ground strikes. Little pitter patter slaps to the stomach or what-not on top are now 0.2 points.

    I look back to Jared Gordon/Chris Fishgold last year, where Gordon landed 241 total strikes and had 10:22 of control time, but he only got credit for 44 significant strikes. I think that’s like a 50+ point discrepancy.

    Edit: Chookagian/A. Shevchenko is another good example.

    About 110.86. BUT if he had advances that would be removed. The control time is at max about 9 points per round assuming the entire round is “control” time. You get a first round knock out in less than 60 seconds in say about 15 strikes, 8 significant they’d get like 129.6 points. But you GTD and land 171 SS and 191 Strikes it’s 102.2.
    Nchukwi against Picket had 1 KD, 120 SS/159 S 2:51 Ctrl in a DEC win So
    Old: 100 pts.
    New: 100.93 pts.

    I’ll look at a wrestler

    Deron Winn had 20 SS/64 S 12 TD 9:29 Ctrl DEC W (Stats don’t show advances so maybe he had some Idk I can’t find historical DK points scored or advance stats)
    Old: 100
    New: 123.87

    A 5 rounder with high volume
    Vetorri got 1 KD 165/202 SS 1 REV 5:47 Control Dec Win
    Old: 117.5
    New: 118.81

    I’ll find one with little to no control time

    Jake Collier 123SS/126 0:02 Ctrl DEC Win
    Old: 91.5
    New: 79.86

    That’s with most the strikes counting as SS i’ll see if I can find the more controversial stats
    Here we go

    JUNYONG PARK 10/260 SS 4 TD 13:11 CTRL time in a decision win

    Old: 55
    New: 127.73

    Looks like name of the game is volume AND control with 1st round finishes KO>TD Sub>Pull Guard Sub

  • CityBoy410

    @thevogaman said...

    I think it’s going to benefit wrestlers a lot. They’ll finally get points for control time and weak ground strikes. Little pitter patter slaps to the stomach or what-not on top are now 0.2 points.

    I look back to Jared Gordon/Chris Fishgold last year, where Gordon landed 241 total strikes and had 10:22 of control time, but he only got credit for 44 significant strikes. I think that’s like a 50+ point discrepancy.

    Edit: Chookagian/A. Shevchenko is another good example.

    Good point

  • CityBoy410

    @iron_tactics said...

    About 110.86. BUT if he had advances that would be removed. The control time is at max about 9 points per round assuming the entire round is “control” time. You get a first round knock out in less than 60 seconds in say about 15 strikes, 8 significant they’d get like 129.6 points. But you GTD and land 171 SS and 191 Strikes it’s 102.2.
    Nchukwi against Picket had 1 KD, 120 SS/159 S 2:51 Ctrl in a DEC win So
    Old: 100 pts.
    New: 100.93 pts.

    I’ll look at a wrestler

    Deron Winn had 20 SS/64 S 12 TD 9:29 Ctrl DEC W (Stats don’t show advances so maybe he had some Idk I can’t find historical DK points scored or advance stats)
    Old: 100
    New: 123.87

    A 5 rounder with high volume
    Vetorri got 1 KD 165/202 SS 1 REV 5:47 Control Dec Win
    Old: 117.5
    New: 118.81

    I’ll find one with little to no control time

    Jake Collier 123SS/126 0:02 Ctrl DEC Win
    Old: 91.5
    New: 79.86

    That’s with most the strikes counting as SS i’ll see if I can find the more controversial stats
    Here we go

    JUNYONG PARK 10/260 SS 4 TD 13:11 CTRL time in a decision win

    Old: 55
    New: 127.73

    Looks like name of the game is volume AND control with 1st round finishes KO>TD Sub>Pull Guard Sub

    Good points also.

  • thevogaman

    @iron_tactics said...

    I’ll look at a wrestler

    Deron Winn had 20 SS/64 S 12 TD 9:29 Ctrl DEC W (Stats don’t show advances so maybe he had some Idk I can’t find historical DK points scored or advance stats)
    Old: 100
    New: 123.87

    Yeah, Winn is a good example where a dominant wrestling performance with some ground strikes saw an even higher score under the new system.

    I think with this card being back in the big cage… it’s going to be a mistake to chase a 1-minute first round finish. Buckley, Ponzinibbio, Hawes, Soriano, & Tafa seem like the only fighters with any shot at all and I don’t think any of them get it. I also don’t think there are any wrestlers that will benefit from a lot of ground control and extra landed strikes with Grundy off the card.

  • CityBoy410

    Man, more fights are starting to drop from this card.

  • someclevername

    @CityBoy410 said...

    Man, more fights are starting to drop from this card.

    Akhmedov/Breese?

  • jdtrey

    Not related to this card but UFC HOFer Pat Miletich was removed from the LFA broadcast team due to pictures of him being at the riots at the Capitol surfacing.

  • CityBoy410

    @someclevername said...

    Akhmedov/Breese?

    Yeah, being moved to the 20th card

  • CityBoy410

    @jdtrey said...

    Not related to this card but UFC HOFer Pat Miletich was removed from the LFA broadcast team due to pictures of him being at the riots at the Capitol surfacing.

    Yeah I read about that yesterday.

  • thevogaman

    It kind of sucks to lose the $8.3-$7.9k range.

    Feels like Joselyne Edwards is going to be chalk (now) with no other mid-priced options. I still need to tape her, but the odds movement and Yanan being awful has me pretty intrigued. Hoping she sucks just as much and I can avoid this fight altogether and gain some leverage.

  • zpruitt3

    max bet holloway -150? i’m not sure kattar is ready for this big of a step up, kind of surprised he got this fight already

  • thevogaman

    @zpruitt3 said...

    max bet holloway -150? i’m not sure kattar is ready for this big of a step up, kind of surprised he got this fight already

    Yeah, I’m not that aggressive with my betting and just do hail mary parlays for fun. I put a decent chunk on: Holloway by Decision/Lingo ML/Emeev by Decision at +503.

  • zpruitt3

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah, I’m not that aggressive with my betting and just do hail mary parlays for fun. I put a decent chunk on: Holloway by Decision/Lingo ML/Emeev by Decision at +503.

    I think I will tail that Holloway by dec play. Holloway’s chin held up big in his last fight vs poirer and I think kattars strategy will be similar

  • thedkexperience

    @CityBoy410 said...

    What scoring change do y’all feel is the most significant change?

    Overall I believe this helps anyone who is dominant. It’s almost like they slapped on a hundred yard rushing bonus to UFC. It certainly helps wrestlers and KO artists but at the end of the day I believe it mostly hurts people who want to go to the judges cards.

    So what was good before is now better and what was bad is probably worse. I don’t envision it having much overall change in lineup construction considering it’s generally an optimal strategy to have as many fighters who can get a finish as possible. Just now you seem to get rewarded for being spectacular.

  • thedkexperience

    @jdtrey said...

    Not related to this card but UFC HOFer Pat Miletich was removed from the LFA broadcast team due to pictures of him being at the riots at the Capitol surfacing.

    Good.

  • NewMike

    Just watched the weigh ins and the stare downs and I am happy to report no one wore sunglasses. Brown looked a little rough, but he is in his 40s now, so that shouldn’t come as a surprise. This is a fight I should probably target, but I really don’t like betting on either guy

  • m994770

    @thevogaman said...

    I think it’s going to benefit wrestlers a lot. They’ll finally get points for control time and weak ground strikes. Little pitter patter slaps to the stomach or what-not on top are now 0.2 points.

    I look back to Jared Gordon/Chris Fishgold last year, where Gordon landed 241 total strikes and had 10:22 of control time, but he only got credit for 44 significant strikes. I think that’s like a 50+ point discrepancy.

    Edit: Chookagian/A. Shevchenko is another good example.

    Right – esp the inactive, LnP wrestlers who just pitter patter.

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    Just watched the weigh ins and the stare downs and I am happy to report no one wore sunglasses. Brown looked a little rough, but he is in his 40s now, so that shouldn’t come as a surprise. This is a fight I should probably target, but I really don’t like betting on either guy

    Yeah, same. Brown has been a kill-or-be killed kind of fighter for most of his career and I think it’ll be the latter here… but I don’t end up getting near enough Condit when I build. I think I’m going to be underweight to the fight as a whole and then hope that we get Condit by decision. I’m sure by tomorrow morning I’ll have re-thought this all and be over the field on one of them.

    Anybody want to talk me out of playing Tafa at a high clip (like 30% exposure)? I fee like he could run head first into Felipe’s best shot (like he did against Yorgan) and not even be wobbled. I think people are assuming Tafa’s cardio is shit and he’ll get beat up for the last 2 to lose. I think he gets on top of Felipe and TKOs him in the 1st round.

  • thevogaman

    @m994770 said...

    Right – esp the inactive, LnP wrestlers who just pitter patter.

    Yeah, does that make Emeev the play here? I think this fight should look a lot like his last fight… but Zawada is a lot more dangerous off his back, so I could see Emeev having to bail out of some positions, then go back to the clinch and get additional takedowns. If he has (say) 2 more takedowns and a little more control time against Zawada than in his last fight… he could reach the optimal.

  • NewMike

    @thevogaman said...

    Anybody want to talk me out of playing Tafa at a high clip (like 30% exposure)?

    I don’t know if you remember back in the day a guy named Wesley “Cabbage” Correira, but Felipe reminds me of him for some reason. He could take an ungodly amount of punishment before getting stopped or his corner throwing in the towel. I don’t really believe Tafa can get him in the first minute. But if he runs into Felipe, he could get stunned and Felipe could land some power punches, he doesn’t have much power for a HW but he is still a HW. There’s still a lot of unknowns with Tafa, he’s inexperienced and he’s one of those power punchers that has never seen a 3rd round and they almost never have good cardio.

    I have no strong read either way, but Tafa is $1000 cheaper with a clear path to victory. It seems like Tafa early or Felipe in Rd 3/decision.

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