STRATEGY FORUM

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  • someclevername

    Saturday, April 10th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ABC/ESPN+, 2pm CT)

    Main Event
    Marvin Vettori (186) vs Kevin Holland (183.5)

    Co-Main Event
    Arnold Allen (145.5) vs Sodiq Yusuff (146)

    Sam Alvey (186) vs Julian Marquez (186)
    Nina Nunes (116) vs Mackenzie Dern (115)
    Mike Perry (170) vs Daniel Rodriguez (170.5)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 11am CT)

    Jim Miller (155.5) vs Joe Solecki (155.5)
    Scott Holtzman (155.5) vs Mateusz Gamrot (156)
    John Makdessi (153.5) vs Ignacio Bahamondes (156.75)*
    Yorgan De Castro (261.5) vs Jarjis Danho (255.5)
    Jack Shore (136) vs Hunter Azure (135.5)
    Luis Saldaña (145.5) vs Jordan Griffin (145.5)
    Da Un Jung (205.5) vs William Knight (205.5)

    Early Prelims (ESPN+, 10:30am CT)

    Impa Kasanganay (170.5) vs Sasha Palatnikov (170.5)

    *Bahamondes missed the lightweight limit by 0.75 pounds and will be fined 20% of his purse

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • thevogaman

    These salaries are not what I expected (for some reason). A $9500 Impa?! Norma Dumont for $9300?!

    Just doing some initial builds; but I’m definitely fading a lot of these fighters in the 9k range.

    I wonder what the main event line would be if not for the Brunson fight? I honestly think Holland might have had a – number by his name.

  • osuryanf

    I haven’t been keeping up… why is Holland fighting just 3 weeks after his last fight?

  • someclevername

    @osuryanf said...

    I haven’t been keeping up… why is Holland fighting just 3 weeks after his last fight?

    Till withdrew so they needed a replacement & Holland stepped up. For all of his faults, dude is game as hell and would probably fight every week if they let him.

  • thevogaman

    @osuryanf said...

    I haven’t been keeping up… why is Holland fighting just 3 weeks after his last fight?

    He’s a late replacement for Darren Till.

  • someclevername

    Can’t believe they finally put up a 15 fight card and it’s on Masters week. And it starts 11am CT on Saturday, wtf man lol. Dana White – I know you read this forum – I have stayed up all night to watch cards in China and you do me like this.

    I don’t even know where to start yet – agree that some of these 9k fighters are suspect. To go along w/Impa & Dumont…idk who “Man Mountain” is, but $9400 De Castro, eh. $9000 for Marquez vs Alvey, no thank you. I never thought I’d ever be paying up this much for Marvin Vettori, but after watching a gassed out Brunson take Holland down with ease… Vettori can do that and pile up points for 5 rounds, right? Feels too easy.

  • thevogaman

    I’ve been trying to find what fights are barn-burners on paper, but end up being striking-based decision wins that sink my lineups. Kind of like Lord Michal and Bukauskas was on the last card.

    I’m thinking it’s Allen/Sodiq and Perry/Rodriguez on this one.

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    Can’t believe they finally put up a 15 fight card and it’s on Masters week. And it starts 11am CT on Saturday, wtf man lol. Dana White – I know you read this forum – I have stayed up all night to watch cards in China and you do me like this.

    The start time should have been pushed back a few weeks ago after North Dakota lost in the NCAA regional hockey final and won’t play in Saturday night’s championship game. Dana wouldn’t have wanted to go up against that. Also, I’m still bitter about that game. A 5 OT loss to end the season is brutal (and it made me miss the entire UFC card that night).

    More seriously, I thought that maybe they didn’t want to go up against a NASCAR night race. But then I realized that they were going up against the Masters instead. Doesn’t make sense, but it will be a long day/night on Saturday. Hopefully a fun, profitable one for all.

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    More seriously, I thought that maybe they didn’t want to go up against a NASCAR night race.

    Great, I didn’t even realize NASCAR is Saturday too!

    Sorry for your (5 OT) loss – that really is a horrible way for it to end, damn.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I’m thinking it’s Allen/Sodiq and Perry/Rodriguez on this one.

    If Sodiq can keep his pattern up he’s due for 100+ this outing, but yeah I’m probably not playing that one. I don’t know if I can stay away from Perry/Rodriguez…which should be a big sign it’s going to disappoint.

    I do like Perry’s alternating tweet style of “make your own luck, work hard” type of motivational stuff immediately followed the next day by he’s dying and hungry and thinking of changing careers. I’m expecting some gems on Thursday.

  • thebigboy

    • 857

      RG Overall Ranking

    Can safely say this is the worst card for DFS purposes that I’ve ever seen. 15 fights and I’m not confident about ANY picks. I think the winning GPP lineup will have have us shaking our heads wondering how we got it so wrong. I really don’t want to put any money into this but im a degenerate so I’ll max enter by Friday.

  • someclevername

    Khizriev/Daukaus OFF due to COVID-19 protocols per @BigMarcel 24

    That was going to be a good one

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Khizriev/Daukaus OFF due to COVID-19 protocols per @BigMarcel 24

    That was going to be a good one

    Yeah, I had a ton of exposure to both sides. Was probably a good candidate for the fight that was going to sink all of my lineups, so I’m going to take it as a blessing in disguise.

  • CityBoy410

    I didn’t even catch Nina Ansaroff name
    Is now Nina Nunes on DK. Well she’s in 100% of my line ups now. 😩

  • factorial89

    question-on draftkings nina ansaroff is listed as nina nunes.is she related to amanda nunes.also i believe ansaroff had a baby awile ago.coupla live dogs. william knight and mike perry.

  • CityBoy410

    @factorial89 said...

    question-on draftkings nina ansaroff is listed as nina nunes.is she related to amanda nunes.also i believe ansaroff had a baby awile ago.coupla live dogs. william knight and mike perry.

    They are a couple and they have a baby together.

  • someclevername

    Whoops, I missed her name change – I’ll fix that.

    I kind of like Nina to win this fight. If I am remembering correctly, Tatiana Suarez (a very good wrestler) had a difficult time getting her down and Dern just has not shown good offensive wrestling (so far). Two concerns on Nina are she just had a baby when? September? She looks in great shape though, so idk. Other concern is fantasy wise what is her ceiling? No doubt she wants to keep this on the feet and win a striking decision. If I do end up playing this fight I’ll be on Dern cos I think she has the higher scoring potential since she’s always live for a sub if she can get it to the ground.

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    And it starts 11am CT on Saturday, wtf man lol.

    Dang, now I see DK moved the lock time up 30 minutes. They must have had it wrong to start since they moved it up with a fight cancelled. Now it is at 10:30am CT.

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    Whoops, I missed her name change

    They must have just changed her name to Nunes. I download the .csv file with the salaries when they come out and the download I have shows Nina “Ansaroff”. I noticed tapology and fightmetric both changed her name. I hadn’t noticed it a couple nights ago when I looked at a few things.

    The bigger question is how fighters do when their name changes on DK mid-week?

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    The bigger question is how fighters do when their name changes on DK mid-week?

    I feel like this happened recently… but I don’t remember who it was or if they won. You’re welcome. lol

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    I feel like this happened recently… but I don’t remember who it was or if they won. You’re welcome. lol

    Dang it, it did sound familiar and since you mentioned it I had to look it up.

    On March 20th, Montserrat Conejo defeated Cheyanne Buys and followed up with “I’ll follow you home bitch”. When the salaries first came out, she was Montserrat Ruiz.

    I don’t foresee a quote like that from Nina Nunes. I’d say it would be an even fight before the name change, but now lean more in her favor.

    Also of note, although only three weeks ago, that was the Holland-Brunson matchup. Holland does not seem to do well on cards where women fighters have their names changed mid-week.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Other concern is fantasy wise what is her ceiling? No doubt she wants to keep this on the feet and win a striking decision. If I do end up playing this fight I’ll be on Dern cos I think she has the higher scoring potential since she’s always live for a sub if she can get it to the ground.

    Pretty much this. I hope that Nina wins by decision and I’ll have none of her (and very little Dern).

    Interesting ownership tidbits (from Awesemo): he has Palatnikov north of 30% (which seems unlikely to me).

  • thevogaman

    @smonger19 said...

    Holland does not seem to do well on cards where women fighters have their names changed mid-week.

    Yeah but that trend is only for chalk favorite Holland. As a dog, he’s undefeated when he shares the card with a female fighter who changed her name mid week.

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    When the salaries first came out, she was Montserrat Ruiz.

    Ohhh yeah, she had that Pennywise tattoo. Might have been another murderous clown – I can’t keep track of them all. I do know it was some unsettling, creepy ass clown tat lol.

    Can’t believe I forgot about ol’ Montserrat!

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I hope that Nina wins by decision and I’ll have none of her (and very little Dern).

    Interesting ownership tidbits (from Awesemo): he has Palatnikov north of 30% (which seems unlikely to me).

    Yeah, I’m not really trying to get to that fight. Nina by lower scoring UD hope, hope.

    30%+, wow. Wasn’t he getting smoked by Cosce til he gassed? Don’t really have a ton of interest in this one either. Impa by lower scoring UD hope, hope.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah but that trend is only for chalk favorite Holland. As a dog, he’s undefeated when he shares the card with a female fighter who changed her name mid week.

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