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  • someclevername

    Saturday, June 20th, 2020 – UFC APEX – Las Vegas, NV

    ESPN/ESPN+ Main Card – 7pm CT

    Curtis Blaydes (261) vs Alexander Volkov (247)
    Josh Emmett (146) vs Shane Burgos (146)
    Raquel Pennington (136) vs Marion Reneau (136)
    Belal Muhammad (170.5) vs Lyman Good (170.5)
    Jim Miller (159.5)* vs Roosevelt Roberts (160)*

    ESPN/ESPN+ Prelims – 4pm CT

    Clay Guida (154.5) vs Bobby Green (155.5)
    Tecia Torres (116) vs Brianna Van Buren (115)
    Marc-Andre Barriault (185.5) vs Oskar Piechota (185.5)
    Cortney Casey (123.5) vs Gillian Robertson (125.5)
    Frank Camacho (158)** vs Justin Jaynes (156)
    Roxanne Modafferi (125.5) vs Lauren Murphy (125.5)
    Austin Hubbard (156) vs Max Rohskopf (155)

    *Miller/Roberts at 160 pound catchweight

    **Camacho missed the Lightweight limit by 2 pounds

    UFC on ESPN 11 Worksheet – Version 01

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    EDIT: Should note that all odds are no vig odds and **not implied odds … again, for those who don’t know the difference, no vig odds are better because “vig”, “juice”, “hold” … removed so these odds are the actual odds …. Implied odds do, however, have some use … that being for sports-betting purposes … but of course to use those odds you need to bet at a Sportsbook where the vig is applicable …. Here, for fantasy, no vig is best …. For sports betting … doubt anyone here bets at 5Dimes.

    Quoting this – again – so it will be at the top of page 5

  • gje627

    Page 5 !!!

    I imagine this infuriates Touchole … apparently he/she has something against lots of UFC “early-in-the-week” pages ….

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    Quoting this – again – so it will be at the top of page 5

    Sorry … my bad … all are no vig (juice, hold) … except the moneyline odds … and those are “win” only odds ….

    Probably obvious … but just to be clear ….

    Last post for awhile … working on more numbers now.

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    Page 5 !!!

    We did it!

    There was a card back awhile that had one page total lol. Sad!

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @someclevername said...

    UFC on ESPN 11 Worksheet – Version 01

    Thank you for this clever. I’m sure you put a lot of work into it! 😉😉

    J/k Thanks gje! And here is another one

  • gje627

    @theIrrigator said...

    Thank you for this clever. I’m sure you put a lot of work into it! 😉😉

    J/k Thanks gje! And here is another one

    On behalf of Clever … you’re welcome !!!

    Also a little birdie (okay … that would be Clever …) told me personally ….

    The good stuff’s til’ to come !!!

    May be in the morning, though … pretty early (not just after midnight early but say 7, 8, 9 am depending on your time zone) …. Just finalizing the numbers now ….

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @gje627 said...

    On behalf of Clever … you’re welcome !!!

    Also a little birdie (okay … that would be Clever …) told me personally ….

    The good stuff’s til’ to come !!!

    May be in the morning, though … pretty early (not just after midnight early but say 7, 8, 9 am depending on your time zone) …. Just finalizing the numbers now ….

    👍👍. I usually dont start digging into UFC until 12ish so no rush from me

  • someclevername

    Me trying to put all of that together lol I just learned today how to use italics.

  • gje627

    12:04 am MT; Saturday June 20, 2020

    All new numbers finished.
    A lot of explanation required … so not posting without explanations.
    Way too tired to write explanations now … so will do in the morning.
    Good Night. :)

  • superjon

    All the Roberts and Camacho

  • gje627

    Hey Everyone … in the worksheet, and not sure how this happened, but there is an error in the no vig win odds for the Camacho/Jaynes fight.

    Based on the moneyline odds below, the correct no vig odds as percentages are as follows:

    Frank Camacho (-320) 74.82%
    Justin Jaynes (290) 25.18%

    I corrected it in my file. The corrected file for everyone will be updated sometime this morning to also include additional numbers.

    I re-checked the rest of the numbers as well, and they should all be correct. However, if anyone here finds or suspects any other errors in the current or a future file, please let me know.

    Sorry about that.

  • thevogaman

    Finishing up my builds… I’m thinking Barriault is going to be chalky now that he’s the favorite, and it’s really gearing me towards targeting Piechota to get leverage on the field. Probably going to be a fail (see 20% wasted on Cifers last week). Feel like Piechota is better everywhere but durability and cardio (granted 2 pretty important factors). Anybody want to talk me out of this?

  • Man this first fight is the toughest for me… i know everyone will be on max, the problem could be if i don’t roster him, he could get there on takedowns alone. Hubbard obvisouly would get you leverage on the field.

  • thevogaman

    @billythekidcowboysheat said...

    Man this first fight is the toughest for me… i know everyone will be on max, the problem could be if i don’t roster him, he could get there on takedowns alone. Hubbard obvisouly would get you leverage on the field.

    How low do you think Hubbard’s ownership will be in GPPs? I’m thinking he’ll be like 15%.

  • jki7p6

    @thevogaman said...

    Finishing up my builds… I’m thinking Barriault is going to be chalky now that he’s the favorite, and it’s really gearing me towards targeting Piechota to get leverage on the field. Probably going to be a fail (see 20% wasted on Cifers last week). Feel like Piechota is better everywhere but durability and cardio (granted 2 pretty important factors). Anybody want to talk me out of this?

    No? Because i am thinking similar?
    Wait, maybe i just talked you out of it?

  • jki7p6

    Odd prediction for the nickname folks: Guitar Hero, the Jedi Master beats The Crank by Sneaky Pete submission in the 2nd

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Feel like Piechota is better everywhere but durability and cardio (granted 2 pretty important factors). Anybody want to talk me out of this?

    I’ve played him his last two fights…third time’s a charm?

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I’ve played him his last two fights…third time’s a charm?

    I had equal shares with Soriano last time and faded him the previous 2. I really think he’s either getting a 1st round sub or getting TKOd in the 3rd.

    I think I’m going to have some really low scoring lineups tonight. But just hoping for one of them to get through (obviously).

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I had equal shares with Soriano last time and faded him the previous 2. I really think he’s either getting a 1st round sub or getting TKOd in the 3rd.

    I went way off the reservation playing him against Vieira and then Soriano, ugh, just got smoked. Idk, this Power Bar kid is just not very good, but he’s never been finished so there’s that. Worried if Oskar can’t get it done early it’ll look like the GM3 fight (only time I’ve ever been right on GM3 and it wasn’t looking good in the first). Good news is if I play Piechota and he loses I won’t be tempted to pick him again since he’ll be cut. Well, good news for me, not so great for Piechota.

  • @thevogaman said...

    How low do you think Hubbard’s ownership will be in GPPs? I’m thinking he’ll be like 15%.

    Yeah, i don’t own any projections but I’d imagine somewhere in that range. I’m leaning just eating the max chalk or avoiding that fight altogether.

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    Finishing up my builds… I’m thinking Barriault is going to be chalky now that he’s the favorite, and it’s really gearing me towards targeting Piechota to get leverage on the field. Probably going to be a fail (see 20% wasted on Cifers last week). Feel like Piechota is better everywhere but durability and cardio (granted 2 pretty important factors). Anybody want to talk me out of this?

    The line movement on this fight really confuses me. I keep thinking that I’m missing something (which could easily be the case). There is a good chance of a first or second round finish where Piechota’s cardio shouldn’t really be a factor. In 12 lineups, I have 3 with Piechota and 2 with Barriault.

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Hubbard around 15% I’m playing 5-10% just in case

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @thevogaman said...

    Finishing up my builds… I’m thinking Barriault is going to be chalky now that he’s the favorite, and it’s really gearing me towards targeting Piechota to get leverage on the field. Probably going to be a fail (see 20% wasted on Cifers last week). Feel like Piechota is better everywhere but durability and cardio (granted 2 pretty important factors). Anybody want to talk me out of this?

    I’m playing 40% Barriault and 5-10% Piechota. I dont think Piechota will keep me from having the optimal lineup even if he does win so not feeling like he will be necessary

  • someclevername

    Flipping from Robertson to Casey – needed to save a lil cash and Casey ain’t bad.

    After some deliberation, off Piechota and going to go with Power Bar. I just can’t trust Piechota again – can’t lie I’ll be a lil salty if Piechota finally wins lol.

    Alright, gonna take a shot on this Rohskopf kid. “Thud” really is a terrible nickname (shoutout smonger19).

    Camacho! Hope Burgos doesn’t get KO’d, be sweating that one til it’s over.

    GL everyone

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @someclevername said...

    Flipping from Robertson to Casey – needed to save a lil cash and Casey ain’t bad.

    After some deliberation, off Piechota and going to go with Power Bar. I just can’t trust Piechota again – can’t lie I’ll be a lil salty if Piechota finally wins lol.

    Alright, gonna take a shot on this Rohskopf kid. “Thud” really is a terrible nickname (shoutout smonger19).

    Camacho! Hope Burgos doesn’t get KO’d, be sweating that one til it’s over.

    GL everyone

    Similar to me. Most my ownership went to Casey, Comacho, Rohskpof, Burgos, and Blaydes. Glad I got done early. Thought lock was at 5 cst lol

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