MAIN FORUM

Comments

  • someclevername

    Saturday, June 27th, 2020 – UFC APEX – Las Vegas, NV

    ESPN/ESPN+ Main Card – 7pm CT

    Dustin Poirier (156) vs Dan Hooker (155.5)
    Mike Perry (171) vs Mickey Gall (170)
    Gian Villante (255) vs Maurice Greene (255)
    Brendan Allen (185.5) vs Kyle Daukaus (185.5)
    Takashi Sato (170.5) vs Jason Witt (171)
    Sean Woodson (149)* vs Julian Erosa (149.5)*

    ESPN/ESPN+ Prelims – 5pm CT

    Luis Pena (155) vs Khama Worthy (154.5)
    Philipe Lins (234) vs Tanner Boser (235)
    Kay Hansen (115.5) vs Jinh Yu Frey (115.5)
    Jordan Griffin (145) vs Youssef Zalal (145.5)

    *Woodson/Erosa at 150 pound catchweight

  • someclevername

    Sean Woodson vs Kyle Nelson – Nelson OUT. Seeing he will be replaced by Julian Erosa, but not sure if that is official yet.

    Will update information & bout order as needed.

  • Johnsloop

    @someclevername said...

    Nelson OUT. Seeing he will be replaced by Julian Erosa

    Was already on Woodson like I think most probably are. I remember Erosa being kinda garbage so this just makes me want to lock Woodson in.

  • someclevername

    @Johnsloop said...

    Was already on Woodson like I think most probably are. I remember Erosa being kinda garbage so this just makes me want to lock Woodson in.

    Love Woodson in this spot – hopefully he doesn’t get Guitar Hero’d.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Love Woodson in this spot – hopefully he doesn’t get Guitar Hero’d.

    Juicy J is probably the better nickname.

  • gje627

    Hey All …. Super-long post here … so sorry …. I may look at it once posted, and if it really is not just “way-long” but “way-way-long” … I may re-do as two separate posts.

    EDIT: Yikes … it is not just “way-way-long … it’s “way-way-way-way-long …. If anyone wants me to delete and try again … please say so, I won’t be offended.

    First, for those (few) of you who were waiting for numbers last weekend, my sincere apologies for not getting them out, and a special apology to Clever who … due to my total lack of consideration … I failed to update as to the status of providing (actually not) the information I promised.

    FWIW All the regulars here already know I’m a horrible person … so it probably wasn’t a shock to anyone that I broke my promise ….

    With that said, if I could offer an excuse (aka “my dog ate my homework”) …. Here goes. Last weekend was the first time I used my revamped database … and there were issues. Namely, once I first ran the data … some was obviously wrong for specific fighters, once I corrected the “bad numbers” and re-ran, another problem became quickly apparent …. That being I had more than a small handful of fighters fighters with incorrect opponents … e.g I had one fight with Cowboy being submitted by Rose Namajunas …. While we all know, virtually again can happen in the UFC … and Cowboy is indeed on the decline … I somehow belieev A) this outcome is highly unlikely, and B) Not that I’m the Encyclopedia of “UFC Fight-O-Rama” … I was pretty certain the two of them had never met in the Octagon ….

    So anyways … while my excuses are just that … excuses … these are the reasons I had no numbers last week.

    Sorry

    ______________

    Okay, here’s a “starter” table for everyone ….

    TABLE NOTES:

    1) Total fights included in table below equals 3115 (i.e. n=3115).

    2) Table below includes all fights in 2013 to Current (01/19/13 to 6/20/2020) except for fights finishing where a was disqualified (DQ), and fights ending in no contest (NC) or draw.

    3) Included in the table are fight outcome percentages () only for the fight favorite. This was done to conserve the precious column width available in these threads. However, I did include the total number of fights in each category of coupled favorites and under … so, as such, if anybody is interested in calculated the underdog numbers all you have too do is subtract the applicable favorite percentage from 100 and then multiple that percentage by the total number of fights in each category(row).

    4) Obviously … but just to make sure everyone understands … for the one row with even no vig percentage odds between fighters (i.e. 50%/50% odds) … since the no vig odds are the same for each both the favorite and the underdog (of course, this being the only category/row where this is true) the actual outcome numbers for both fighters will be identical.

    5) I do update my database after each fight card; however, I will likely only post updated tables every once in a while … primarily because one fight card will not move the total numbers enough to make it worthwhile.

    6) I think (hope) most people will find the table below pretty interesting/useful … so if you do, please use the same-old/same-old protocol for cutting-and-pasting for future reference.

    7) To make the table a little easier to digest, I was thinking about “binning” … i.e., grouping together similar odds together into its own group (e.g. “Fav Win” … 60% to 65%); however I chose not to because with the information I figured everyone here could do that on their own … if they so desired.

    8) I will (try … not going to “promise” again … UGHH !!!) … to post more numbers in the next few days.

    9) Questions … please ask.

    ______________

    UFC – All Fights 2013-Current – No Vig Odds by Actual Outcome Type – Excerpt Only

    Fav No Vig Under No Vig Total Fights Fav Wins Fav Loss Fav Dec Fav TKO / KO Fav Sub Fav ITD
    ———— ———— ————- ————— ————— ————— ————— ————— —————
    57.46% 42.54% 1 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    57.30% 42.70% 19 63.16% 36.84% 31.58% 36.84% 31.58% 68.42%
    57.11% 42.89% 83 57.83% 42.17% 56.63% 27.71% 13.25% 40.96%
    56.38% 43.62% 23 43.48% 56.52% 47.83% 26.09% 26.09% 52.17%
    56.20% 43.80% 93 53.76% 46.24% 64.52% 21.51% 11.83% 33.33%
    56.00% 44.00% 1 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 100.00%
    55.99% 44.01% 1 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    55.83% 44.17% 1 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00%
    55.64% 44.36% 1 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00%
    55.43% 44.57% 20 50.00% 50.00% 25.00% 55.00% 20.00% 75.00%
    55.26% 44.74% 79 55.70% 44.30% 63.29% 20.25% 13.92% 34.18%
    54.83% 45.17% 1 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    54.67% 45.33% 1 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    54.43% 45.57% 12 58.33% 41.67% 33.33% 33.33% 33.33% 66.67%
    54.27% 45.73% 83 56.63% 43.37% 46.99% 32.53% 19.28% 51.81%
    53.60% 46.40% 1 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 100.00%
    53.39% 46.61% 10 30.00% 70.00% 50.00% 20.00% 20.00% 40.00%
    53.25% 46.75% 75 54.67% 45.33% 53.33% 32.00% 13.33% 45.33%
    53.06% 46.94% 1 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    52.61% 47.39% 2 100.00% 0.00% 50.00% 50.00% 0.00% 50.00%
    52.30% 47.70% 16 62.50% 37.50% 50.00% 25.00% 25.00% 50.00%
    52.17% 47.83% 75 37.33% 62.67% 49.33% 28.00% 21.33% 49.33%
    51.52% 48.48% 1 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    51.16% 48.84% 13 53.85% 46.15% 23.08% 38.46% 38.46% 76.92%
    51.08% 48.92% 110 50.91% 49.09% 59.09% 30.00% 10.00% 40.00%
    50.93% 49.07% 1 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    50.46% 49.54% 1 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    50.00% 50.00% 134 50.00% 50.00% 47.76% 31.34% 13.43% 44.78%

    ______________

    EDIT AGAIN: … Yeah … way too long …. Sorry about that …. I know not everyone here cares about the numbers, so if you are interested, just PM me and will reply with the whole table.

  • NewMike

    What are the first 2 columns?

  • gje627

    @NewMike said...

    What are the first 2 columns?

    The first two columns are the no vig “win” closing odds for the the favorite (column 1) and the no vig “win” closing odds for the underdog (column 2) … note since vig is removed the sum of the first two columns should always equal 100%. This in contrast to implied odds, where the sum of both sides a percentage greater than 100% because implied odds include vig. Sidenote: Yes, the sportsbooks also frequently post “draw” odds but those are always in seperate prop bets.

    Again, no vig odds are used because they are the actual, true odds. As such, no vig odds are more accurate than implied odds in that they are a true reflection of the probability of win/loss outcomes projected by any given sportsbook (i.e., where approximately 50% of all money falls equally on either side of a bet, thus when vig is added ensuring a net profit by the sportsbook on those particular odds and any movement up or down). In other words, implied odds at say -115 are not always equal, as the true percentage odds is always conditional upon the opposite side of the bet (e.g. opponent at + 105 or + 110, etc.) plus the amount of vig requires for each bet (while close, the vig amounts differ for each bet … for MMA/UFC fights, vig amounts are generally between 2% and 4%, and go as high as 6% for some prop bets).

    The idea in the table is twofold:

    1) To analyze fights, and fighters therein, by comparing their win odds to actual fight outcomes from other historical fights with the identical odds.

    2) To evaluate the historical success rate or accuracy of the sportsbooks you are taking your odds from.

    As usual, the closing odds are from 5Dimes, as archived at the website Best Fight Odds. I also have the odds for the other sportsbooks Best Fight Odds archives. I chose 5Dimes to report because they have odds for all fights since 2013.

  • thevogaman

    Twitter saying Miranda Maverick is out. I dont care who they bring in… I ain’t playing Borella.

    Edit: Doesn’t look like we’re getting a replacement. 10 fight card gonna suck for trying to win anything big.

  • rourke441

    every card has 2 or 3 live dogs my first one here is khama worthy why-well he is a high level striker with ko power pena is a grappler and maulrr worthy has 4 finishes in his last 6 fights vs. some quality opponents at about plus 240 in odds i will bet some on worthy p.s looking at hooker also

  • thevogaman

    So Brahimaj is out (according to Twitter) and Sato now faces Jason Witt. Based on last week, Witt by 1st round murder at no ownership… amirite?

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    So Brahimaj is out (according to Twitter) and Sato now faces Jason Witt. Based on last week, Witt by 1st round murder at no ownership… amirite?

    “The Vanilla Gorilla” – is it strong enough on such short notice? Not very original.

    Holy “tough lil peanut butter cup chocolate chip cookie” Batman! Mike Perry has reached peak levels of ridiculousness. Idk about him lol. I ignored Max’s red flags last week and Platinum coming in this week like

  • thevogaman

    Thought DK would wait for the line to drop and re-price Witt lower into the 7k range. Ain’t feeling him at 7.8k, but maybe that’s a good spot to be for ownership purposes.
    Not saying I favor Witt, but going to have to find somewhere to be unique on this one.

    I’m looking at stacking the main in some lineups and then fading it in some. Leverage really going to be hard to come by.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    “The Vanilla Gorilla” – is it strong enough on such short notice? Not very original.

    Holy “tough lil peanut butter cup chocolate chip cookie” Batman! Mike Perry has reached peak levels of ridiculousness. Idk about him lol. I ignored Max’s red flags last week and Platinum coming in this week like

    Awful nickname for sure.

    I think Perry will be fine, but I also think he’s getting a little bit overrated by the public.

    He’s going to be probably top 3 owned on the card, but is he going to score over 100? Gall hasn’t been knocked out before and he knows he needs to wrestle to have any kind of chance. Granted, he sucks at wrestling… but I think at least for the first round… Gall is going to be on Perry’s legs or holding him against the fence, and Perry’s going to be forced to defend against that. Maybe he lands an elbow on a break or a knee on a takedown attempt, but I just don’t think Perry wins in the first.

    I think plus money on the over 1.5 could end up being pretty juicy by the time we get to Saturday evening. I’ll still probably have close to 40% Perry, but I don’t know that it’s the slam dunk all the touts are saying.

    Edit: Also weigh-in-wise… Crochet Boss looks as good as he ever has … and Villante looks Roy Nelson fat. So clearly Villante by 1st rd KO is the play to make.

  • someclevername

    If Perry is going to come in top 3 owned I might pass exactly for the reasons you stated – Gall’s Wall N’ Stall Emporium. Mike’s a strong dude though so maybe he can’t hold him there long, but I am not hyped to pay $9k for a guy talking crazier than normal, no formal training camp & having only his peanut butter cookie cup in the corner. Plus, even on a good day, he has potato fight IQ. Having said all of that, I have zero interest in playing Gall.

    If I do end up passing I fully expect Platinum to shuck Gall off w/ease, KO him stiff and then reenact the final scene in Dirty Dancing w/his girl.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Edit: Also weigh-in-wise… Crochet Boss looks as good as he ever has

    lol I love that nickname, but I hate this fight. I really do not want to play either of them. Hoping for a classic HW slogfest.

    Thoughts on Allen/Daukaus? I need to look more into it tonight, but sounds like it might get scrambly and I don’t mind taking a shot on the cheap guy in that kind of fight.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    lol I love that nickname, but I hate this fight. I really do not want to play either of them. Hoping for a classic HW slogfest.

    Thoughts on Allen/Daukaus? I need to look more into it tonight, but sounds like it might get scrambly and I don’t mind taking a shot on the cheap guy in that kind of fight.

    I thought I’d get into Daukaus based on wiki-capping, but actually watching him…. don’t think he’s got anything for Allen.

    Still need to tape Witt… hoping he looks decent cause I’m not feeling any of these dogs.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    cause I’m not feeling any of these dogs.

    Jinh Yu Frey 1st round twister – lol that would be bad ass though.

  • Johnsloop

    Allen/Daukaus is expected to be grapple heavy. The guys on the Pat Mayo DK show brought up that a lot of Daukaus’s success has been against guys that are career 55/70 pound fighters. I think it’s Allen all day if you want to pay the price. I could see some TD’s/advances and a first or second round sub for Allen. They’re both pretty lanky though so who knows, Daukaus might find the neck with a D’arce or something. This card is not easy.

    After the recent change, I have a share of Witt in a pretty contrarian line-up. It was either him or Frey. What I see from Witt is that he is open to get hit a lot, but will force the clinch and gets to the back fairly well. I don’t believe in Sato being a big puncher like he is touted to be and Witt made weight so easy that I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in shape as an alternate.

  • someclevername

    @Johnsloop said...

    What I see from Witt is that he is open to get hit a lot, but will force the clinch and gets to the back fairly well.

    I remember from watching Sato for his matchup w/Saunders that he gives his back a lot. Could be there for Witt. Agree about the power angle, Sato knocked out Ben but everyone knocks out Ben. Not for nothing… Chase “The Vanilla Gorilla” Sherman came through for me recently – maybe it’s fate.

    *Had a quick look at Witt’s record and Chance Rencountre tko’d him back in 2013. I know it was 7 years ago but Chance has no stand up even now lol.

  • smonger19

    UFC on ESPN 12 Nickname Breakdown

    Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier vs Dan “The Hangman” Hooker
    • Easy pick here. The Hangman is a solid nickname, but not going to beat every other nickname. The Diamond is not bad on its own, but if your first name is Dustin, you don’t want Diamond as your nickname. That’s Screech, dang it. Dustin Diamond played the weakest character on Saved By the Bell. Lisa Turtle was way out of Screech’s league and I’m glad that she rejected all of his advances. Although, I’d go with the chalk pick of Kelly Kapowski, Lisa Turtle would be an extremely good pick.

    “Platinum” Mike Perry vs Mickey Gall
    • Little to say about this one. I wouldn’t invest much in Platinum, but since Gall doesn’t have a nickname, Platinum is an easy choice.

    Maurice “The Crochet Boss” Greene vs Gian Villante
    • I was set to go against The Crochet Boss on the sole reason that I don’t consider him the true Crochet Boss. I consider my stepmom the true Crochet Boss after I visited a few years ago and she was crocheting little beanies for newborns. She said she thought she needed to be doing something while watching baseball at night, so she started doing this. She said she makes about 100 a year. I was torn, but she told me that she’s graciously willing to share the Crochet Boss nickname. No contest here, all in on the Crochet Boss.

    Brandan “All-In” Allen vs Kyle Daukaus
    • All-In is a cute nickname for Allen and should be enough to beat someone without a nickname, but I can’t see that nickname making value.

    Philipe “Monstro” Lins vs Tanner “The Bulldozer” Boser
    • In a fight card with several bad nickname matchups, it’s too bad that several of the top nicknames are matched up against each other. In this case, despite liking Monstro, but I have to take The Bulldozer in this matchup. I would definitely have shares of both if entering multiple lineups, but I think a Bulldozer would be able to run over most Monstros. It really depends on how big the Monstro is.

    Sean “The Sniper” Woodson vs Julian “Juicy J” Erosa
    • The Monster vs The Sniper was going to be a great nickname fight, but now we have a horrible matchup. Is the Juicy J nickname because he’s going to be bleeding really bad at the end of the fight? Probably. The Sniper will just have fun picking off Juicy J again and again and again.

    Takashi Soto vs Jason “The Vanilla Gorilla” Witt
    • This is a sure fade. Why is the Vanilla Gorilla a nickname that more than one fighter would use. If Jason Witt has ever seen Chase Sherman fight, he’d take another nickname. And any other nickname would beat a fighter with no nickname. Seriously, he could use something generic like “Quick” Witt and be an easy favorite.

    Kay Hansen vs Jinh Yu Frey
    • Neither one has a nickname, so it will be a draw.

    Jordan “Native Psycho” Griffin vs Youssef “The Moroccan Devil” Zalel
    • Dang it, this is another fight I want to stack. I would take the Moroccan Devil against almost any fighter, but I just love the Native Psycho nickname. No way I go against the Native Psycho and I just hope the Moroccan Devil gets an easier nickname to go against in his next fight.

    Luis “Violent Bob Ross” Pena vs Khama “The Supreme Fighting Machine” aka “The Deathstar” Worthy
    • How do we get three of the best nicknames in one fight? First off, Violent Bob Ross. Maybe he has already, but I would like to see him painting violent little trees. I actually didn’t like the nickname at first, but it has grown on me. So now we go to The Deathstar. I’m not a huge Star Wars fan, but I just love the name Deathstar. No one should ever underestimate a death star. But then, we have the third and best nickname, The Supreme Fighting Machine, from the artist (Charles Wright) also known as The Godfather and Papa Shango in the WWE. From much research, I learned that The Supreme Fighting Machine as a member of Ted DiBiase’s Million Dollar Corporation, stole the Undertaker’s urn and melted it into a necklace. After that, I’ll be disappointed if The Supreme Fighting Machine doesn’t break several paintings over Violent Bob Ross’s head.

    Optimal Nickname Lineup
    • The Supreme Fighting Machine
    • Native Psycho
    • The Crochet Boss
    • The Sniper
    • The Hangman
    • The Bulldozer

  • smonger19

    @Johnsloop said...

    Was already on Woodson like I think most probably are. I remember Erosa being kinda garbage so this just makes me want to lock Woodson in.

    The sad thing is that it will make everyone not already in on Woodson in on him now.

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    Juicy J is probably the better nickname.

    Juicy J could be a bit better nickname than Guitar Hero, but is no match more the Sniper.

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    “The Vanilla Gorilla” – is it strong enough on such short notice? Not very original.

    Holy “tough lil peanut butter cup chocolate chip cookie”

    You just thought up the new nickname for Jason Witt. He is no longer going to be “The Vanilla Gorilla”, but “Tough Lil Peanut Butter Cup Chocolate Chip Cookie”. (Maybe I just want to hear Buffer say this)

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    You just thought up the new nickname for Jason Witt. He is no longer going to be “The Vanilla Gorilla”, but “Tough Lil Peanut Butter Cup Chocolate Chip Cookie”. (Maybe I just want to hear Buffer say this)

    lol I can’t take credit for that – Mike Perry’s crazy ass said that during his interview with Helwani about his gf who will be cornering him.

    Agree though – wanna hear Buffer announce that one.

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    UFC on ESPN 12 Nickname Breakdown

    Excellent work!! I have always been a nickname aficionado, but you have really taken it to the next level.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler