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  • someclevername

    Saturday, June 27th, 2020 – UFC APEX – Las Vegas, NV

    ESPN/ESPN+ Main Card – 7pm CT

    Dustin Poirier (156) vs Dan Hooker (155.5)
    Mike Perry (171) vs Mickey Gall (170)
    Gian Villante (255) vs Maurice Greene (255)
    Brendan Allen (185.5) vs Kyle Daukaus (185.5)
    Takashi Sato (170.5) vs Jason Witt (171)
    Sean Woodson (149)* vs Julian Erosa (149.5)*

    ESPN/ESPN+ Prelims – 5pm CT

    Luis Pena (155) vs Khama Worthy (154.5)
    Philipe Lins (234) vs Tanner Boser (235)
    Kay Hansen (115.5) vs Jinh Yu Frey (115.5)
    Jordan Griffin (145) vs Youssef Zalal (145.5)

    *Woodson/Erosa at 150 pound catchweight

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    Dang, a few more seconds in that round would have been nice

    DP was in trouble there for sure – I hope you still got a nice cash!

  • thevogaman

    Oh holy shit … salaries posted for the milly too.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    DP was in trouble there for sure – I hope you still got a nice cash!

    You should post the next card thread now (I mean soon… not necessarily now).

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    DP was in trouble there for sure – I hope you still got a nice cash!

    Haven’t seen the final score yet, but should be more than I’ve lost the last couple weeks….I’ll take it….and what an entertaining fight

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #48

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Good fight. Actually good card

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    You should post the next card thread now.

    Really…I can’t believe someclevername is slacking so much…..

  • NewMike

    Such a slacker

  • m994770

    Victory!

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    You should post the next card thread now (I mean soon… not necessarily now).

    I got you – probably be tomorrow, but I’ll get it done

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    Really…I can’t believe someclevername is slacking so much…..

    I’m exhausted from watching that fight lol

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    I hope you still got a nice cash!

    Still took second….I’ll take it…and then lose it tomorrow…

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    Still took second….I’ll take it…and then lose it tomorrow…

    Yessss! (the winning part not the losing it tomorrow part)

  • thevogaman

    Congrats anybody that profited.

    Gonna need the extra week to do a lot of tape for 251… lot of guys I’m not too familiar with. Considering stacking Volkanowski/Holloway again maybe.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Congrats anybody that profited.

    Gonna need the extra week to do a lot of tape for 251… lot of guys I’m not too familiar with. Considering stacking Volkanowski/Holloway again maybe.

    Hopefully I can build up some funds between now and then – they hittin’ us rapid fire with the next 3 Sat-Wed-Sat

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Hopefully I can build up some funds between now and then – they hittin’ us rapid fire with the next 3 Sat-Wed-Sat

    Erosa really ruined my night. Didn’t have like any… had Boser a lot, but had him with Daukaus or Worthy (and Woodson). Just didn’t see it.

    I (still) probably won’t take Erosa again.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Erosa really ruined my night. Didn’t have like any… had Boser a lot, but had him with Daukaus or Worthy (and Woodson). Just didn’t see it.

    I (still) probably won’t take Erosa again.

    Juicy J lol that was crazy. I wouldn’t have picked him if I did 20 lineups.

    Also appreciate the UFC announcing right before lock that Witt didn’t have medical clearance yet – f’ng pivoted from Sato to Lins in my first lineup. My Allen/Daukaus/Villante lineup actually cashed though lol so not all was lost.

    Fingers crossed 251 stays together!

  • ImADonk11

    • 565

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    • Ranked #83

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    MMA has been fun. That Main event tonight and Emmet/Bergos last week, damn! UFC is definitely drawing a fan back in. Albeit, mainly because of DFS but still I have enjoyed these cards. I am coming around on this. Couple of things:

    1) I should probably try to stop going basically all-in on guys I like but that just isn’t my style but I really should. What do you experienced guys do? Worked two weeks ago with Aguilera but not so good today with Lins (and I didn’t even hedge one lineup with Boser). I do 30-40 lines. Usually I pick 3-4 fighters as a core (like 90-100%) and then rotate and try and get unique. Feels like you need to take a stand if you aren’t doing 150 which I don’t because I hand build. My main stats I use are a fighters # of finishes, average distance of fight, industry talk and Vegas odds. But some times I wish I had the advantage of the eye test, see my next point…

    2) It would also help if I had a clue what these guys looked like/how they fought before I pick them. For instance, the tall lanky ass kid a couple of weeks ago, I would have never picked him and I was pretty much all in because of odds/industry talk. Once I saw him/his style, I knew it was bad news going against a savy veteran. Also, tonight Maurice Green looked awkward and awful. I will never select that dude again even though he got bailed out. I guess that is the good thing about watching now is I am getting a memory bank of these fighters.

    3) Do kicks count as significant strikes? It seems like they should, and this may be a total amateur question but it got me thinking after all the kicks tonight in that Green fight.

    4) Are there ever cards with 14-15 fights? Because that would be fun and also seems like the only way for a none huge split top prize. And I realize that is difficult with all these fight change issues lately but I was wondering if they do it normally.

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #48

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @ImADonk11 said...

    For instance, the tall lanky ass kid a couple of weeks ago, I would have never picked him and I was pretty much all in because of odds/industry talk. Once I saw him/his style, I knew it was bad news going against a savy veteran.

    Napolean Dynamite?

    Yeah me too lol. As soon as I saw him I knew I made a mistake

    I’m gonna start watching Weigh-ins and any past fight highlights I can find

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #48

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @ImADonk11 said...

    1) I should probably try to stop going basically all-in on guys I like but that just isn’t my style but I really should. What do you experienced guys do? Worked two weeks ago with Aguilera but not so good today with Lins (and I didn’t even hedge one lineup with Boser). I do 30-40 lines. Usually I pick 3-4 fighters as a core (like 90-100%) and then rotate and try and get unique. Feels like you need to take a stand if you aren’t doing 150 which I don’t because I hand build. My main stats I use are a fighters # of finishes, average distance of fight, industry talk and Vegas odds.

    Very similar to me. I’ll take a stand even when I do 150 which I need to start hedging a little more. Usually any heavy underdog gets eliminated from my player pool. So yesterday Gall, Witt, Erosa got eliminated right off the bat. I need to start grabbing 5-10% of those guys

  • NewMike

    @ImADonk11 said...

    MMA has been fun. That Main event tonight and Emmet/Bergos last week, damn! UFC is definitely drawing a fan back in. Albeit, mainly because of DFS but still I have enjoyed these cards. I am coming around on this. Couple of things:

    1) I should probably try to stop going basically all-in on guys I like but that just isn’t my style but I really should. What do you experienced guys do? Worked two weeks ago with Aguilera but not so good today with Lins (and I didn’t even hedge one lineup with Boser). I do 30-40 lines. Usually I pick 3-4 fighters as a core (like 90-100%) and then rotate and try and get unique. Feels like you need to take a stand if you aren’t doing 150 which I don’t because I hand build. My main stats I use are a fighters # of finishes, average distance of fight, industry talk and Vegas odds. But some times I wish I had the advantage of the eye test, see my next point…

    2) It would also help if I had a clue what these guys looked like/how they fought before I pick them. For instance, the tall lanky ass kid a couple of weeks ago, I would have never picked him and I was pretty much all in because of odds/industry talk. Once I saw him/his style, I knew it was bad news going against a savy veteran. Also, tonight Maurice Green looked awkward and awful. I will never select that dude again even though he got bailed out. I guess that is the good thing about watching now is I am getting a memory bank of these fighters.

    3) Do kicks count as significant strikes? It seems like they should, and this may be a total amateur question but it got me thinking after all the kicks tonight in that Green fight.

    4) Are there ever cards with 14-15 fights? Because that would be fun and also seems like the only way for a none huge split top prize. And I realize that is difficult with all these fight change issues lately but I was wondering if they do it normally.

    1) I think if you’re entering 30-40 LUs, you shouldn’t be 100% on anyone. It’s good to have a core, but I think 60-80% is a better range to use though, because you want to have almost every fighter at least 1-2 times. You just never know in MMA, crazy stuff happens. But, if you’re more of a gambler going 100% is the way to go, because when it hits you’re going to be in such a good spot, you just have to be prepared to lose more events when one of them loses.

    If there’s somewhat of a chance they can get 90+ points, they always make it into my LUs.

    2) Looks can be deceiving sometimes, but the weigh ins can tell you a lot about how the fight might play out. I wanted to fade Greene, but when I saw Villante on the scales I couldn’t do it.

    3) Kicks do count, but significant is subjective

    4) I don’t think I’ve ever seen 15 fights on a card, unless you count the fights in the crowd watching it live. Usually it’s 11-13, but lately it’s been 10-11. The captain mode is good for breaking up the ties

  • someclevername

    2) Chase Hooper. Yeah, that was bad – let’s not talk about it anymore LOL (I had him too and had seen him fight before! My judgment is really sketchy.)

    You pretty much nailed it – watching the fights yourself is the best way. Not really a stat, but another useful piece of info I always take into account is a fighter’s cardio and I always watch the weigh-ins & faceoffs. If I do nothing else in a week, I do that.

    3) Yes. Per FightMetric (the official scorer): “significant strikes refer to all strikes at distance and power strikes in the clinch and on the ground. It does not include small, short strikes in the clinch and on the ground. Those will be included in the Total Strikes category.”

    That’s the definition but FM has had some wildly inconsistent scoring at times. We are all at their mercy. FightMetric and the judges. Cross your fingers and say a prayer.

    4) I don’t know about 15, but feel like I’ve seen 14 before. I think 12 is most common (then we lose one or 2 ugh), but could be wrong. UFC 251 has 13 scheduled so hope hope.

    Good luck going forward!

  • ImADonk11

    • 565

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    • Ranked #83

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    @theIrrigator said...

    Very similar to me. I’ll take a stand even when I do 150 which I need to start hedging a little more. Usually any heavy underdog gets eliminated from my player pool. So yesterday Gall, Witt, Erosa got eliminated right off the bat. I need to start grabbing 5-10% of those guys

    Yeah I always gravitate towards one or two dogs with KO potential. Seems like you have to find one or two 7k-7.5k guys you like to make it work. Worked big time two weeks ago with Aguilera. But I realize it is not ideal for others but I am risk tolerant. I have no issue losing big or not. I go for the win. It can be draining though with variance and when I am on a downswing but when it hits it can pay off. I like to gamble more than others which is something I tell myself to change but I always end up going almost all in on 3-4 dudes. This is likely a product of hand building also. I just don’t like using lineup builders for whatever reason.

  • ImADonk11

    • 565

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    • Ranked #83

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    @someclevername said...

    2) Chase Hooper. Yeah, that was bad – let’s not talk about it anymore LOL (I had him too and had seen him fight before! My judgment is really sketchy.)

    You pretty much nailed it – watching the fights yourself is the best way. Not really a stat, but another useful piece of info I always take into account is a fighter’s cardio and I always watch the weigh-ins & faceoffs. If I do nothing else in a week, I do that.

    3) Yes. Per FightMetric (the official scorer): “significant strikes refer to all strikes at distance and power strikes in the clinch and on the ground. It does not include small, short strikes in the clinch and on the ground. Those will be included in the Total Strikes category.”

    That’s the definition but FM has had some wildly inconsistent scoring at times. We are all at their mercy. FightMetric and the judges. Cross your fingers and say a prayer.

    4) I don’t know about 15, but feel like I’ve seen 14 before. I think 12 is most common (then we lose one or 2 ugh), but could be wrong. UFC 251 has 13 scheduled so hope hope.

    Good luck going forward!

    Yes that was him. Lol man that one was rough. Dude was so awkward and timid, I couldn’t understand what I was missing watching him lol.

    Gotcha. The whole significant strikes seems so arbitrary then. Just sitting there after the fight waiting for the tally. Seems like a solid spot for stat adjustments later..does that happen?

    Looking forward for the next card!

  • ImADonk11

    • 565

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    It seems to me that the real edge is monitoring the weigh ins then? With Villante and Green this week. Also, the week I split the tourney a few weeks ago I read about how Jessica Eye could barely make weight so I went all in on the other chick and that worked big time. Almost seems like we shouldn’t really be making lineups until weigh ins. They are always two days before the fight or what?

  • thevogaman

    @ImADonk11 said...

    It seems to me that the real edge is monitoring the weigh ins then? With Villante and Green this week. Also, the week I split the tourney a few weeks ago I read about how Jessica Eye could barely make weight so I went all in on the other chick and that worked big time. Almost seems like we shouldn’t really be making lineups until weigh ins. They are always two days before the fight or what?

    Yeah, the weigh-ins are almost always at noon (EST) the day before the card (usually Friday). I think weigh-ins are important, but only a small piece of the puzzle.

    You really need to watch the fighters previous fights. Nothing more important than that for MMA DFS. I’d say it’s 30% what you see on tape, 20% Vegas odds, 15% stats, 15% understanding where the ownership will be, 10% intangible things like narratives, weigh-ins, best nickname, etc…. and 10% luck. The luck % should probably be higher.

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