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  • someclevername

    Saturday, July 25th, 2020 | UFC Fight Island | Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

    Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+, 7pm CT)

    Robert Whittaker (186) vs Darren Till (186)
    Maurício Rua (206) vs Rogério Nogueira (206)
    Fabrício Werdum (242) vs Alexander Gustafsson (240)
    Carla Esparza (116) vs Marina Rodriguez (115.5)
    Paul Craig (206) vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov (206)
    Alex Oliveira (171) vs Peter Sobotta (171)
    Khamzat Chimaev (171) vs Rhys McKee (170.5)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 4pm CT)

    Francisco Trinaldo (160)* vs Jai Herbert (156)
    Nicolas Dalby (171) vs Jesse Ronson (171)
    Jake Collier (264) vs Tom Aspinall (248)
    Movsar Evloev (146) vs Mike Grundy (146)
    Tanner Boser (235) vs Raphael Pessoa (264)
    Bethe Correia (136) vs Pannie Kianzad (136)
    Ramazan Emeev (171) vs Niklas Stolze (170.5)
    Nathaniel Wood (136) vs John Castaneda (136)

    *Trinaldo missed the Lightweight limit by 4 pounds

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Event Page

  • thevogaman

    It sounds official they’re adding Chimaev vs Rhys McKee. Chimaev will be $9600. McKee is a tall, lanky 170er (edit: 155er). He’s actually decent, but don’t really see why he won’t get mauled in a similar manner to what Phillips was. He’ll probably be able to get up and taken back down multiple times per round. Chimaev looking like a free square to me even at that price.

  • someclevername

    RIP Rhys McKee, we barely knew thee

    Werdum shot to hell, but after Gus got subbed by Anthony Smith I said never again.

  • NewMike

    That’s what I said about Werdum after his last fight. Gus is almost unplayable at that price though, I think this will be a terrible fight especially for DK purposes.

  • CityBoy410

    So there’s a fighter who’s nick name is “sexy Mexi”

  • Johnsloop

    Liking Till and Aspinall with Grundy to just round out their gym. I want to see how Werdum looks at weigh ins. I hope that last fight shamed him into taking his camp seriously from a strength and conditioning standpoint.

  • NewMike

    I’m really not liking Till here, he’s never landed 50 SS in a UFC fight and he absorbs more than he lands. Whittaker was smart and took a lot of time off so I think he’s fully recovered. He also lands twice the SPM as Till.

    Who knows with the old guys though. I see sloppiness in our viewing future

    Chimaev is out, for the low price of $9800. He’s probably worth it, too

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    Chimaev is out, for the low price of $9800. He’s probably worth it, too

    I just saw that holy smokes

  • thedkexperience

    Considering that 10 minutes of research last week got me a 2nd and 4th place GPP finish, I’ve decided to do as little research as possible.

    If anyone wants to know what my system was, I just pulled up the ESPN mobile page and looked at the fighter’s striking and take downs per minute, the accuracy rate of both and then simply the fight history. In general I avoid fighters who rely on the judges.

  • thevogaman

    I have to think that with Chimaev at $9800, Grundy will be even more popular (so you can fit him in).

    As a longtime Shogun fan, something is telling me that Lil Nog blasts him for a 1st round TKO. Logic says Shogun should be able to take a few and then wrestle his way to a decision (or else get his own knockout), but I just can’t shake this “vision.” I’m usually wrong on these kind of things though. Head and heart says Shogun; gut telling me Lil Nog.

  • CityBoy410

    I see Till looking good shape and all but I’m leaning towards Whitaker in a 5 round fight. Just not sure where’s his head is at. Hopefully he’s motivated not being the champ more than he was being the champ. Lol

  • CityBoy410

    @someclevername said...

    I just saw that holy smokes

    I know he just fought middleweight and on 10 days notice he will be cutting down to fight his normal weight class which is welterweight.

  • rourke441

    wow 15 fights live dogs here- ronson herbert correia

  • someclevername

    I know he’s been out for a bit, but looking at Sobotta due to Oliveira’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

  • thevogaman

    I’m more struggling to find fighters worth the pay-up (with paths to GPP winning scores) than I am in finding dogs. I’ve got Main Event/Aspinall/Chimaev as a core (sort of) … so it’s either 2 really cheap dogs and a favorite or 2 regular dogs and Craig/Antigulov). Feels like we’re going to need somebody with no business in the winning lineup like a Trinaldo or Kianzad.

    Also, will Chimaev be over or under 70% in the Throwdown? I’m thinking over.

  • someclevername

    I’m looking to fade Grundy – which is probably a massive mistake. He’s gonna be mega popular at that price and I’m only firing a single bullet into this mess, so I have to get creative lol.

    Might fade Whittaker/Till too – they both might fight super conservative (we already saw this from Till) cos neither of them wants to get KO’d again. Maybe it’s just a tough fight and I don’t want to choose.

    My dummy lineup has Wood in it – he’s really good and I don’t hold the Dodson loss against him. John might be a lil older, a lil slower, but he’s always been a very tricky guy to fight. I could be wrong, but don’t think “Sexy Mexi” brings the same challenges. This a get right spot for Wood…but it ain’t cheap.

    Chimaev also not cheap – thinking of fading him also. It’s about an auto-win, but $9800? Idk. He scored 108 against Phillips, who is like the worst fighter ever and tailor made for his style. I’m not saying he doesn’t smesh – he prob smeshes – but $9800 is so steep. Feel like Grundy will be tied to this build a lot – I’m not playing Evloev, but seems like I’ll be rooting for him lol.

    Just some thoughts – been working on my golf lineup, which is sure to be disgusting.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Chimaev also not cheap – thinking of fading him also. It’s about an auto-win, but $9800? Idk. He scored 108 against Phillips, who is like the worst fighter ever and tailor made for his style. I’m not saying he doesn’t smesh – he prob smeshes – but $9800 is so steep. Feel like Grundy will be tied to this build a lot – I’m not playing Evloev, but seems like I’ll be rooting for him lol

    Yeah, fading Grundy and Chimaev should have you with a unique build off jump. I don’t think Grundy wins honestly… just think he’ll be popular.

    The touts seem to be on Grundy, Herbert, and Sobotta as far as the dogs. I wouldn’t be shocked if all of the sub 7.7k fighters lose on this card… and you actually need the Chimaev/McKee stack with something balanced to win.

  • Syko

    I don’t think I can fade Chimaev. The only plausible way he’s not in the optimal is if he beats McKee so fast that he doesn’t have time to rack up any peripherals. I wish it wasn’t essentially impossible to pair him with Wood.

    100% fading Till. Will probably play quite a bit of Whitaker.

    My favorite dog so far is Nogueira. Excellent line movement. As far as narratives go, he’s retiring and this would be revenge. Obviously still has knockout power. He’s washed, sure, but just need him to find it again one more time against a guy that is well accustomed to getting knocked out.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    The touts seem to be on Grundy, Herbert, and Sobotta as far as the dogs.

    I get Grundy – Herbert idk. Trinaldo is a tough debut. *I just don’t want to play this fight – still traumatized from playing Trinaldo against Hernandez.

    Sobotta is live as Oliveira can give away fights, but still dynamic enough to get a finish. Some tough decisions coming up. Damn 15 is a lot.

  • someclevername

    @Syko said...

    My favorite dog so far is Nogueira. Excellent line movement. As far as narratives go, he’s retiring and this would be revenge. Obviously still has knockout power. He’s washed, sure, but just need him to find it again one more time against a guy that is well accustomed to getting knocked out.

    I like Lil Nog too – think he goes out on a high note. Or he goes 0-3 and regrets it forever lol.

  • mnstone14

    @someclevername said...

    I get Grundy – Herbert idk. Trinaldo is a tough debut. *I just don’t want to play this fight – still traumatized from playing Trinaldo against Hernandez.

    Sobotta is live as Oliveira can give away fights, but still dynamic enough to get a finish. Some tough decisions coming up. Damn 15 is a lot.

    why is grundy so popular? Just the power?

  • someclevername

    @mnstone14 said...

    why is grundy so popular? Just the power?

    He’s pretty cheap and looked good in his debut. I am usually wrong on ownership, but feels like he’ll be high. Also, as vogaman said, prob a lot of people using him to help pay up for Chimaev.

    Still thinking of fading Chimaev, but also that feels stupid lol. Idk, lots of time left to flip flop.

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    Still thinking of fading Chimaev, but also that feels stupid lol. Idk, lots of time left to flip flop.

    My initial plan is to fade Chimaev, but I’m not sure I’ll do it. It would be a lot easier if I felt good about other high priced fighters.

    Chimaev will need to score 117.6 for him to hit what I would want him too and there are several reasons why he won’t. He could get the early finish and barely score about 100 or if things go to the 2nd round he would need to score 47.6 non-decision points. He could easily do this with several take downs and passes, but it’s a gamble.

    My thinking is that he could very well be the highest scorer of the night, but not in the optimal lineup. That’s my initial take, but I’m not really taking a deep dive until tomorrow night.

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    My initial plan is to fade Chimaev, but I’m not sure I’ll do it.

    Same. Feel like when I try to get too cute it blows up in my face. My decision making is extremely suspect right now – after last card I was like damn there is no way I can do worse than that…and then I played Dustin Johnson.

  • BigDaddy123

    is anyone on shogun? I feel like one clean shot and nog will be KO’ed

  • geardaddy

    @BigDaddy123 said...

    is anyone on shogun? I feel like one clean shot and nog will be KO’ed

    i’m sure he’ll be chalky. He has one of the highest finish props on the slate. But he didn’t finish nogueira in the previous 2 matchups.

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