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  • someclevername

    Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 | Etihad Arena | Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

    Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+, 11am CT)

    Main Event
    Michael Chiesa (170.5) vs Neil Magny (171)

    Co-Main Event
    Warlley Alves (171) vs Mounir Lazzez (171)

    Ike Villanueva (206) vs Vinicius Moreira (206)
    Roxanne Modafferi (126) vs Viviane Araujo (126)
    Tyson Nam (126) vs Matt Schnell (126)
    Lerone Murphy (146) vs Douglas Silva de Andrade (145)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 8am CT)

    Omari Akhmedov (186) vs Tom Breese (186)
    Ricky Simón (136) vs Gaetano Pirrello (136)
    Su Mudaerji (126) vs Zarrukh Adashev (126)
    Dalcha Lungiambula (186) vs Markus Perez (186)
    Jerome Rivera (126) vs Francisco Figueiredo (126)
    Mike Davis (154.5) vs Mason Jones (156)
    Umar Nurmagomedov (136) vs Sergey Morozov (135)
    Victoria Leonardo (125.5) vs Manon Fiorot (126)

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • thevogaman

    Omari Akhmedov seems too cheap. Pretty sure this was the $8200/$8000 fight before it got moved. He should be someone who could benefit from control time points and he should be looking to avoid the standup here.

  • thevogaman

    Wow… not a lot of excitement for this one. I wonder why people wouldn’t be excited about a card at 9 in the morning on a Wednesday?! Weird.

    I’m just hoping any cancellations we (possibly) see happen a few hours before, because I (like most people) will be at work when this thing gets started and I won’t be able to swap out an hour before.

    I think the risk of a cancelled fight is still worth the overlay we’re probably going to see, so I think I’m going to try 20 in the Throwdown.

  • joephoto

    I will be up early and watching for any cancelations.
    With 14 fights, I’d be surprised if they all go.

    Mr. Vogaman, who do you think benefits from the new scoring rules on this card ?

  • thevogaman

    @joephoto said...

    Mr. Vogaman, who do you think benefits from the new scoring rules on this card ?

    I really think it’s Akhmedov. We just saw Emeev on the optimal for the first time… why not another Russian decision machine? He should be looking to clinch and grapple or else he’s probably going to get picked apart at range.

    I think Ricky Simon ends up the highest scorer barring an under 60 second finish. I think you’ll see Su Mudaerji get higher ownership between the two and I don’t think he makes the optimal.

  • mcgruffthecrimedog

    @thevogaman said...

    Wow… not a lot of excitement for this one. I wonder why people wouldn’t be excited about a card at 9 in the morning on a Wednesday?! Weird.

    Besides the weird time and the fact that everyone is pumped for the PPV this Saturday, this card is pretty bad. Only a few fights really worth watching. having said that, still plenty of opportunity from a DFS perspective. Besides the main event, the only one I wanna see is the Mike Davis fight.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I really think it’s Akhmedov. We just saw Emeev on the optimal for the first time… why not another Russian decision machine? He should be looking to clinch and grapple or else he’s probably going to get picked apart at range.

    I think Ricky Simon ends up the highest scorer barring an under 60 second finish. I think you’ll see Su Mudaerji get higher ownership between the two and I don’t think he makes the optimal.

    Yeah, this start time is for the birds. Agree about Simon. I was initially resistant to Emeev, but you were right and he ended up on the optimal so I’ll tag along on Omari. Forcing myself to recognize these guys can now be good plays lol.

  • someclevername

    In the highly anticipated title eliminator between Villanueva/Moreira – if Moreira can get him down he prob gets the sub, but geez this dude has no chin. Not confident either way, but I’ll take Ike. This fight would be my guess on someone getting that QW bonus.

    Also think Perez is coming back a little soon from getting ktfo and Dalcha will be throwing bombs.

    Schnell/Nam has been scheduled twice before – Schnell had a bad weight cut the first time in September and then withdrew in December. Not sure what’s up w/him, but Nam will also be throwing bombs. I’ll roll the dice on another NAM BAM.

  • factorial89

    fanduel has a 150k freeroll for the sat. jan 23 card.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I’ll tag along on Omari. Forcing myself to recognize these guys can now be good plays lol.

    I mean it’s a close fight… and sure, he could lose, but lately I’ve really been trying to target underdogs that have quality UFC wins. Hindsight being 20/20, but the Leech and Di Chirico should not have been that big of dogs on Saturday.

    It’s got me interested in Silva de Andrade. I’ve been a Lerone Murphy backer, but this fight could be a lot closer than we think.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    but the Leech and Di Chirico should not have been that big of dogs on Saturday.

    True – I wasn’t going to play Di Chirico (or Buckley) cos I really felt that it was going to be a predominantly striking decision, but I massively regret paying up for Ponz coming off that layoff with giant red flags waving everywhere. Especially against a dude who is quite tough and hits hard. D’oh!

    Omari could very well lose, but like you have already said, he should be working for tds and racking up control time. He’ll prob gas, but I don’t think he’ll quit. Can’t say the same for Breese. We shall see.

    I’m on Ricky for his ceiling, but I have not forgotten he got clocked upside the head by Faber and tends to get stung at least once in fights. He definitely better be working for tds. Also like Chiesa cos that should be his game plan too.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I’m on Ricky for his ceiling, but I have not forgotten he got clocked upside the head by Faber and tends to get stung at least once in fights. He definitely better be working for tds. Also like Chiesa cos that should be his game plan too.

    Trusting an expensive Simon not to get cracked, and Michael Chiesa and Akhmedov to not gas out and get drowned… I mean what could go wrong? I’ll see you at the top.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Trusting an expensive Simon not to get cracked, and Michael Chiesa and Akhmedov to not gas out and get drowned… I mean what could go wrong? I’ll see you at the top.

    Yeah, really got to hope the ol’ “you win w/the lineups you hate” holds some truth.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Yeah, really got to hope the ol’ “you win w/the lineups you hate” holds some truth.

    Right… and then you throw in Villanueva or Moreira and BOOM. It’s either a takedown or you don’t crack 100.

  • iron_tactics

    @thevogaman said...

    Right… and then you throw in Villanueva or Moreira and BOOM. It’s either a takedown or you don’t crack 100.

    Lol I just got to that fight in my research.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Right… and then you throw in Villanueva or Moreira and BOOM. It’s either a takedown or you don’t crack 100.

    I’m going to be so salty if that fight goes the distance lol. It might not end in the first minute, but I find it hard to believe one of these dudes doesn’t get finished.

  • iron_tactics

    Ricky Simon

    At -420 vs Anderson dos Santos he was Subbed in the 2nd round
    At -355 vs Urija Faber he got TKOd in the 1st within like 40 seconds
    At -460 vs Gaetano Pirello he……..gets kneed in the face while going for a takedown

  • thevogaman

    @iron_tactics said...

    At -460 vs Gaetano Pirello he……..gets kneed in the face while going for a takedown

  • iron_tactics

    I just realized Mike Davis had to fight Sodiq Yusuff in DWCS then fight regionally and then Gilbert Burns in his UFC debut. Then almost kills Gifford in his next fight cause a ref doesn’t know how to call a TKO and a corner didn’t know how to throw a towel. Speaking of Gifford, he was released after that and gets KO’d by Chris Wright, a 12-14 dude in PF fights. Mike Davis stepped in as a replacement that night, Gifford was supposed to fight Brock Weaver.

  • someclevername

    @iron_tactics said...

    Mike Davis stepped in as a replacement that night, Gifford was supposed to fight Brock Weaver.

    That is some turrible luck.

  • iron_tactics

    @someclevername said...

    That is some turrible luck.

    Right? My Name is Earl luck right there.

  • NewMike

    Made a last minute switch to Chiesa. Magny seems to struggle against the wrestler/grappler types. Will be a rough last 2 rounds if it gets there though

  • geardaddy

    @factorial89 said...

    fanduel has a 150k freeroll for the sat. jan 23 card.

    where is this freeroll you speak of? 150k seems like a huge free roll for mma

  • geardaddy

    @thevogaman said...

    Wow… not a lot of excitement for this one. I wonder why people wouldn’t be excited about a card at 9 in the morning on a Wednesday?! Weird.

    I’m just hoping any cancellations we (possibly) see happen a few hours before, because I (like most people) will be at work when this thing gets started and I won’t be able to swap out an hour before.

    I think the risk of a cancelled fight is still worth the overlay we’re probably going to see, so I think I’m going to try 20 in the Throwdown.

    ha i was thinking there would be overlay too but everything is almost filled 7 hours before lock.

  • factorial89

    the fanduel freeroll seems to be for new players only.j

  • smonger19

    Today I get to try the strategy of making lineups and not watching them. If it works, I may never watch another fight.

    Good luck everyone!!

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