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  • someclevername

    Saturday, July 17th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+, 9pm CT)

    Main Event
    Islam Makhachev (155.5) vs Thiago Moisés (156)

    Co-Main Event
    Marion Reneau (136) vs Miesha Tate (135)

    Mateusz Gamrot (155.5) vs Jeremy Stephens (156)
    Rodolfo Vieira (185) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (185.5)
    Billy Quarantillo (145.5) vs Gabriel Benítez (146)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 6pm CT)

    Daniel Rodriguez (171) vs Preston Parsons (169.5)
    Amanda Lemos (115.5) vs Montserrat Conejo (113.5)
    Khalid Taha (135.5) vs Sergey Morozov (135)
    Francisco Figueiredo (125.5) vs Malcolm Gordon (125.5)
    Rodrigo Nascimento (259) vs Alan Baudot (246)

    Dos Santos/Johns OFF

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • thevogaman

    Does anybody doubt that Islam Makhachev would be a betting favorite over Dustin Poirier if they made that fight right now? Think he’d probably be close to a -200 favorite.

  • someclevername

    I’d have to take DP as the underdog there on principle and prob watch my money burn as he gets taken down, controlled and possibly submitted.

    I don’t have anything against Islam, it’s just like he’s being crowned the next champ and his best win is Dober. Tsarukyan is pretty good too, but he needs a higher ranked guy. That’s not his fault, I understand – seems like a lot of ranked guys don’t want to fight him. That says a lot. The skillset is there, just need to see it vs top guys – I’m ready to be all-in. If he does what he should so vs Moises, then I can’t imagine him not getting a shot vs a top 5 guy. Time to nut up, gentlemen!

    Also, I have capped Cheyenne Buys at -200 to show up cageside with a bucket of popcorn to watch Montserrat get her ass beat. If for some reason Lemos can’t make this happen, Buys gonna wait for her to leave the cage and hit her w/the ol’

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I’d have to take DP as the underdog there on principle and prob watch my money burn as he gets taken down, controlled and possibly submitted.

    I might have oversold that… it would probably be closer to -140 Islam in that matchup.

    I agree that Lemos rolls here too. Too strong, too fast, too accurate, hits too hard, etc. She’ll probably be able to toss Conejo right out of the cage if she tries that head and arm throw crap here. It’s hard to get her to fit though. I don’t think there’s enough live dogs to fit any 9k fighters but Makhachev. I wouldn’t be shocked if the favorites went 10-1 and you end up needing the highest scoring loser.

  • mnstone14

    @thevogaman said...

    I might have oversold that… it would probably be closer to -140 Islam in that matchup.

    I agree that Lemos rolls here too. Too strong, too fast, too accurate, hits too hard, etc. She’ll probably be able to toss Conejo right out of the cage if she tries that head and arm throw crap here. It’s hard to get her to fit though. I don’t think there’s enough live dogs to fit any 9k fighters but Makhachev. I wouldn’t be shocked if the favorites went 10-1 and you end up needing the highest scoring loser.

    Billy Q is the only one i see that has a real chance.

  • thevogaman

    @mnstone14 said...

    Billy Q is the only one i see that has a real chance.

    Yeah, he, Morozov, and Stephens are my top dogs so far. I’ve been less impressed with Gamrot than I thought I’d be. His striking looks weird and the takedown attempts come from so far away… I could see Jeremy Stephens catching him (even if it is up a weight class for him).

    I really don’t have any good reads for this card and think I’ll tread lightly and save bankroll for next week. 11 fights, lopsided main event odds… it could end up really chalky even if I do hit.

  • jki7p6

    Taking a long look at Parsons. Hes dangerous if he gets a hold of DRod. Question heavily his will on taking shots though, and hes gonna get hit here.

  • gje627

    Interesting? … Useless? … Makes No Sense? … Total Waste of Space?

    Read below and decide for yourself. :)

    Given the large number of significant favorites on this weekend’s fight card, I was curious as to whether or not the outcomes for heavy-favorite fight cards are in way different from fight cards with seemingly more evenly contested matches. Below is a pretty basic analysis of what some preliminary numbers indicate. As always, I apologize in advance for any typos or other errors mostly caused by a combination of typing too fast and refusing to proof read what I write. Also, as always, if interested, please zoom-in/out as necessary to see all table columns. Finally, I apologize in advance if what’s presented below falls into the useless through total waste of space categories above.

    If current odds for UFC on ESPN 26: Makhachev vs. Moises hold, it will rank 59 of 308 in terms of fight cards with the highest total disparity between fight favorites and underdogs … as measured by the total standardized difference (arithmetic mean) between favorite/underdog no vig odds. This would place UFC on ESPN 26 in the top 19th percentile of most lopsided projected cards since January 1, 2013.

    Thus, with multiple substantial favorites on the ESPN 26 fight card, we would expect few upsets with the substantial majority of favorites prevailing in each ones respective fight.

    However, what’s most interesting is there is virtually no correlation between the disparity of no vig odds on card and the total number of favorites that ultimately win on a card (r = 0.19622, p-value = 0.0005).

    To illustrate, below are the top 5 fight cards where the highest collective significant fight favorites underperform and most actually lose their respective fights. To make this list, the 308 fight cards from 2013 to present were ranked first in terms of the total percent disparity of no vig favorites versus underdogs and these ranking were then compared to the actual percent of favorite wins in each card. The first table below, is an overall summary of these fight cards and the second table provides additional detail for each fight.

    __________

    Summary – Top 5 Fight Cards with Underperforming Favorites

    _____

    CARD NO. FIGHTS AVG NO VIG DIFF (%) FAV WINS UNDER WINS EVEN WINS % FAV WINS
    ——————— ————— —————- —————- ———————- —————- —————-
    2015-06 11 42.09 1 10 0 09.09
    2014-08 13 43.54 5 8 0 38.46
    2015-19 11 41.46 4 6 1 40.00
    2014-04 11 38.54 1 9 0 10.00
    2015-03 12 38.82 5 7 0 41.67

    __________

    Detail – Top 5 Fight Cards with Underperforming Favorites (to conserve space, only fight favorites listed below)

    _____

    CARD NAME ML IMPLIED % NO VIG % RESULT TYPE
    —————- ———————————- ———— —————- —————- —————- ——————-
    2015-06 Rustam Khabilov -380 79.17 77.70 Loss Decision
    2015-06 Antonio Silva -155 60.78 59.83 Loss TKO/KO
    2015-06 Jessica Andrade -270 72.97 71.75 Loss Submission
    2015-06 Tiago Trator -225 69.23 67.86 Loss TKO/KO
    2015-06 William Macario -410 80.39 78.90 Loss TKO/KO
    2015-06 Cezar Ferreira -340 77.27 74.60 Loss TKO/KO
    2015-06 Edson Barboza -135 57.45 56.38 Loss Decision
    2015-06 Iuri Alcantara -925 90.24 88.16 Loss Decision
    2015-06 Sean Strickland -200 66.67 65.52 Loss Decision
    2015-06 Cody Gibson -245 71.01 69.77 Loss Decision
    2015-06 Ivan Jorge -260 72.22 71.06 Win Decision
    2014-08 Louis Smolka -145 59.18 58.17 Loss Decision
    2014-08 Soa Palelei -310 75.61 74.18 Win TKO/KO
    2014-08 Justin Salas -290 74.36 72.80 Win TKO/KO
    2014-08 Erik Koch -295 74.68 73.16 Loss TKO/KO
    2014-08 Erick Silva -230 69.70 68.36 Loss TKO/KO
    2014-08 Lorenz Larkin -170 62.96 62.08 Loss TKO/KO
    2014-08 Albert Tumenov -265 72.60 71.47 Win TKO/KO
    2014-08 Eddie Wineland -935 90.34 88.29 Loss TKO/KO
    2014-08 Tim Means -305 75.31 73.85 Loss Decision
    2014-08 Rafael Natal -155 60.78 58.82 Loss Decision
    2014-08 Kyoji Horiguchi -210 67.74 66.27 Win Decision
    2014-08 Yan Cabral -560 84.85 82.99 Loss Decision
    2014-08 Nik Lentz -540 84.38 82.53 Win Decision
    2015-19 Gilbert Melendez -170 62.96 61.15 Loss Decision
    2015-19 Charles Rosa -175 63.64 61.87 Loss Decision
    2015-19 Alejandro Perez -160 61.54 60.61 Loss Submission
    2015-19 Drew Dober -140 58.33 56.20 Loss Submission
    2015-19 Cain Velasquez -460 82.14 79.25 Loss Submission
    2015-19 Kelvin Gastelum -500 83.33 80.65 Win TKO/KO
    2015-19 Clay Collard -255 71.83 69.35 Loss Decision
    2015-19 Tecia Torres -235 70.15 67.42 Win Decision
    2015-19 Henry Cejudo -1275 92.73 89.56 Win Decision
    2015-19 Johnny Case -525 84.00 81.22 Win Decision
    2014-04 Francimar Barroso -135 57.45 56.38 Loss Decision
    2014-04 Cezar Ferreira -380 79.17 77.70 Loss TKO/KO
    2014-04 Ronny Markes -840 89.36 87.17 Loss TKO/KO
    2014-04 Rony Jason -185 64.91 63.67 Win TKO/KO
    2014-04 Thiago Perpetuo -135 57.45 56.38 Loss Submission
    2014-04 Noad Lahat -315 75.90 74.50 Loss TKO/KO
    2014-04 Scott Jorgensen -185 64.91 63.67 Loss Submission
    2014-04 Mauricio Rua -165 62.26 61.36 Loss TKO/KO
    2014-04 Norman Parke -305 75.31 73.85 Draw Draw
    2014-04 Gian Villante -290 74.36 72.80 Loss Decision
    2014-04 Mairbek Taisumov -315 75.90 74.50 Loss Decision
    2015-03 Phil Davis -190 65.52 64.31 Loss Decision
    2015-03 Andy Ogle -175 63.64 61.87 Loss TKO/KO
    2015-03 Gegard Mousasi -430 81.13 79.57 Win TKO/KO
    2015-03 Nikita Krylov -130 56.52 54.27 Win Submission
    2015-03 Alexander Gustafsson -290 74.36 72.80 Loss TKO/KO
    2015-03 Sultan Aliev -175 63.64 62.77 Loss TKO/KO
    2015-03 Akira Corassani -130 56.52 55.43 Loss TKO/KO
    2015-03 Mairbek Taisumov -1050 91.30 89.66 Win TKO/KO
    2015-03 Albert Tumenov -150 60.00 59.02 Win Decision
    2015-03 Mirsad Bektic -925 90.24 88.16 Win Decision
    2015-03 Konstantin Erokhin -430 81.13 79.57 Loss Decision
    2015-03 Chris Beal -215 68.25 65.49 Loss Decision

    __________

    NOTES

    Fight Card 2014-04: The Norman Parke (fav) / Leonardo Santos (under) fight resulted in a draw and is therefore not included in the in any of the “wins” columns listed above.

    Fight Card 2015-19: The fight between Cathal Pendred and Augusto Montano closed at even odds and because there was no favorite in this fight it was omitted in “% FAV WINS” calculation above.

    Odds: All odds used above are closing odds from 5Dimes as archived by Best Fight Odds

    Population: All 308 fight cards between January 1, 2013 to present (UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3; July 10, 2021)

    _____

    FIGHT CARDS

    2014-04: UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Henderson 2

    2014-08: UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva

    2015-03: UFC on Fox: Gustafsson vs. Johnson

    2015-06: UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs. Mir

    2015-19: UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum

    _____

    FOR FURTHER STUDY

    1. Even though data for this review is from 2013 to 2021 it is noteworthy that Top 5s listed above are all from 2014 and 2015. Further research should be performed to see if unique factors were present in these years resulting in more “uneven on paper” fights and fight cards.

    2. By eyeballing the fight favorites in the second table we can see that one or two fights with highly extreme odds may influence rankings. To remedy, further research could be conducted by binning fights into odds groups by odds ranges or percentiles with upper and lower boundaries mutually exclusive of one another.

  • thevogaman

    Awesemo has Billy Q and Jeremy Stephens both as 50% owned chalk. I don’t see it working out that way, but I’ll load up on Gamrot and Mowgli if that’s going to be the case.

  • Dookie

    Thinking about passing on Islam because I can fit much more by avoiding him

  • BigDaddy123

    Weigh ins didnt help my analysis at all. I was hoping nascimento would have a size advantage, they looked the same size to me. Also makachev looks to be a weight class bigger than moises

  • BigDaddy123

    @thevogaman said...

    Awesemo has Billy Q and Jeremy Stephens both as 50% owned chalk. I don’t see it working out that way, but I’ll load up on Gamrot and Mowgli if that’s going to be the case.

    I just watched the Daily Grind Fantasy video, and they have stephens at 16% and Billy Q at 25% with Benitez at 35% and Gamrot at 35%. So I dont know who to believe

  • thevogaman

    @BigDaddy123 said...

    I just watched the Daily Grind Fantasy video, and they have stephens at 16% and Billy Q at 25% with Benitez at 35% and Gamrot at 35%. So I dont know who to believe

    Yeah that’s what it is updated to on Awesemo too. They use Awesemo projections. Makes a lot more sense. I’ve never seen a sub 8k fighter over 50% unless it’s it’s free square/opponent change thing.

  • BigDaddy123

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah that’s what it is updated to on Awesemo too. They use Awesemo projections. Makes a lot more sense. I’ve never seen a sub 8k fighter over 50% unless it’s it’s free square/opponent change thing.

    Yeah ownership projections on Thursday night/Friday morning are always totally off

  • thevogaman

    @BigDaddy123 said...

    Yeah ownership projections on Thursday night/Friday morning are always totally off

    Yeah guess so. Legit 30% difference between the initial Stephens projection to now, which is about what my exposure for Lil Heathen (30%) will be.

    I’m mostly fading the co-main. It burned me bad last week fading Irene Aldana, but I just can’t roster more than 10% for either one of these ladies just on general principle.

  • BigDaddy123

    @thevogaman said...

    Yeah guess so. Legit 30% difference between the initial Stephens projection to now, which is about what my exposure for Lil Heathen (30%) will be.

    I’m mostly fading the co-main. It burned me bad last week fading Irene Aldana, but I just can’t roster more than 10% for either one of these ladies just on general principle.

    i only play 1 lineup and enter it into all the single entry GPP’s. Looks like I am going to have to go with either Baudot, Malcolm Gordon or Parsons to get weird

  • someclevername

    I have Malcolm Gordon right now and I gotta say… it does not feel great.

  • factorial89

    what the heck.gonna try an angle here.this is a retirement fight for marion reneatushe hangs em up after this fight.i took her at plus 118.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    I have Malcolm Gordon right now and I gotta say… it does not feel great.

    Yeah, this slate is leading me there too. And I do not like it.

  • BigDaddy326

    I think in single entry gpp’s, billy Q is going to be 38%+ owned

  • thevogaman

    @BigDaddy326 said...

    I think in single entry gpp’s, billy Q is going to be 38%+ owned

    Makhachev and Nascimento will surely be where people go if they’re doing a double pay-up. I think as a hedge, Lemos/Figueiredo lineups (without the main event) will be huge leverage if you’re playing the chalk dogs. I think they’re the 2 most likely to finish their opponents in the first 60 seconds (knockoff Fig because of his opponent only). Reward outweighs the risk for me.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    Makhachev and Nascimento will surely be where people go if they’re doing a double pay-up. I think as a hedge, Lemos/Figueiredo lineups (without the main event) will be huge leverage if you’re playing the chalk dogs. I think they’re the 2 most likely to finish their opponents in the first 60 seconds (knockoff Fig because of his opponent only). Reward outweighs the risk for me.

    Yeah, this sounds smarter than, in an effort to be contrarian, relying on Gordon’s paper mache chin.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Yeah, this sounds smarter than, in an effort to be contrarian, relying on Gordon’s paper mache chin.

    Yeah, who knows though… the field might go Figueired/Makhachev and maybe Nascimento is the lesser owned. I’m going to (hopefully not) err on the side of more Fig/Gordon exposure than Nascimento/Baudot (as fights) and probably end up regretting it.

  • thedkexperience

    Normally I wait to post here until after my lineup is set but I just looked at the matchup for the Tate fight and went to put her in expecting to play 9800.

    8200 is a steal.

  • joephoto

    @thedkexperience said...

    Normally I wait to post here until after my lineup is set but I just looked at the matchup for the Tate fight and went to put her in expecting to play 9800.

    8200 is a steal.

    I keep wanting to use Tate, do you see enough pts here ?

  • Stangs13

    Thoughts on Parsons?

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