STRATEGY FORUM

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  • someclevername

    Saturday, July 24th, 2021 | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, NV

    Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+, 6pm CT)

    Main Event
    Cory Sandhagen (136) vs TJ Dillashaw (136)

    Co-Main Event
    Kyler Phillips (135.5) vs Raulian Paiva (135.5)

    Darren Elkins (146) vs Darrick Minner (145.5)
    Maycee Barber (125.5) vs Miranda Maverick (125.5)
    Adrian Yanez (135.5) vs Randy Costa (135)

    Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 3pm CT)

    Punahele Soriano (185.5) vs Brendan Allen (185.5)
    Ian Heinisch (185.5) vs Nassourdine Imavov (185.5)
    Mickey Gall (169.5) vs Jordan Williams (170.5)
    Julio Arce (135.5) vs Andre Ewell (135)
    Sijara Eubanks (125) vs Elise Reed (125)
    Diana Belbiţă (114.5) vs Hannah Goldy (115.5)

    Fight Odds

    Tapology Fightcenter

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    Good Luck and Godspeed Everyone !!!

    Good luck to you too!

  • someclevername

    @NewMike said...

    Sandhagen goes to decision or loses when he sees a big step up in competition and I think TJ is by far his biggest test outside of Aljo.

    Yeah, he didn’t do too great in that Aljo fight did he lol

    Public opinion seems to be for Cory – makes me nervous. KZ/Ortega vibes. Tapology predictions at 79% Sandhagen & 21% TJ which is kind of crazy.

  • mnstone14

    whats peoples thoughts on barber/maverick?

  • iron_tactics

    Tryin out Prizepicks today so that will be fun

    Waiting for the next fight to drop to make this a 10 fight card

  • iron_tactics

    @mnstone14 said...

    whats peoples thoughts on barber/maverick?

    Both are young prospects. As young as we perceive Barber to be, she’s had 3 years and 6 fights in the UFC/DWCS.
    Maverick is coming in on a win streak, Barber on a loss streak so Maverick has the momentum. Hard to tell where Barber’s head is at.

    Strength of Schedule I give the edge to Barber. That being said, her strongest opponents resulted in losses but you’d have to decide how you want to quantify those.

    Looking at the stats, you’d think they’re close and Maverick has the edge. But then you quantify that. Barber has a larger sample size, Maverick has 6 SLpM with a 48% Str. Accuracy (Sounds great wait for it)……………vs grapplers.

    Does that mean she can’t land 7 SLpM with 48+% vs Barber? Nope, they’re young and can easily jump in strides between fights. What i’m saying, is we can’t assume she’s going to go out there and roll Barber like she did Jojua and Robertson. So the questions I have are:

    What is Maverick’s plan? She going to take grappling heavy approach?
    I don’t think Maverick is going to allow Barber to bully her. IF that starts to be the case……..I think Barber uses that momentum to win or possibly get a TKO.

    Since I can’t get in the mind of Barber, I have to remove that variable entirely.

    TL/DR

    The range of outcomes on this is so damn wide it might be better to game theory this, and move on. Not safe to assume Maverick rolls Barber the same as she did vs Jojua/Robertson.

  • thedkexperience

    Why is Eubanks a favorite over anyone?

    Why is Eubanks a favorite over an undefeated fighter?

    (Opens Draft Kings …)

    WHY IS EUBANKS THE MOST EXPENSIVE FIGHTER???

    It’s gonna be that kind of afternoon, huh?

  • thedkexperience

    My buddy asked me to scout the card for him. I thought you all might enjoy my completely unscientific scouting reports based totally off my trusty ESPN mobile page.

    Prelims

    Belbita/Goldy > both suck, goldy by decision

    Eubanks/ Reed > take Reed as a big dog, line should be even money as Eubanks stinks

    Arce/Ewell > flip a coin

    Gall/Williams > Williams by KO

    Imavov/Heinisch > slight lean to imavov by sub

    Soriano/Allen > great fight, slight lean Soriano by KO but Allen is a beast at subs”

    “ Yanez/Costa > could go either way. Both go for early KOs. Costa is a live dog but it’s wildly up in the air on this one and either guy could get KO’d in 30 seconds.

    Maverick/Barber > this will be the fight you should take a dump during as Barber will literally throw punches at air for 15 minutes and Maverick will just kind of ineffectively wrestle. I guess Maverick.

    Elkins/Miner > most of the stats say Miner but I’m getting weird old man resurgence probably on roids vibes from Elkins. Flip a coin

    Phillips/Paiva – Phillips by decision in a really good fight

    Sandhagen/Dillashaw – amazing match up, both guys are amazing but I think Sandhagen starches him early. Dillashaw would still beat basically everyone else in the division except for Petr Yan. Sandhagen is just that good. Dillashaw’s path to victory is by wrestling but I don’t think it works.”

  • Caelixx

    Doing 20MME

    100% Phillips and Yanez
    Even split of Sandhagen, Dillashaw (actually think Dillashaw wins this but we’ll see!)
    Way over the field on Ewell, Elkins, Imavov, also… 35% Reed

    What could go wrong?

  • geardaddy

    Sijara is awful but this is 100% her fight to lose. Reed is more of a true strawweight and Sijara is coming down from bantamweight. Reed has okay striking but zero take down defense. But from the two fights I saw of her she doesn’t really quit. Sijara should win but if she gasses it might go the other way.

  • smonger19

    @geardaddy said...

    Sijara is awful but this is 100% her fight to lose. Reed is more of a true flyweight and Sijara is coming down from bantamweight. Reed has okay striking but zero take down defense. But from the two fights I saw of her she doesn’t really quit. Sijara should win but if she gasses it might go the other way.

    Completely agree. Sijara could easily be up a couple weight classes than Reed. She should be able to take her down with ease. It might be good that Reed won’t quit as that might allow Sijara to rack up a big score.

    I went all in (20 lineups) with Sijara so my night could be over very early if this doesn’t happen. I just see her scoring at least 10 more points than Phillips.

  • smonger19

    Wound up relying heavily on a few fights.

    100% Sijara

    At least 90% on one side or the other on:

    Sandhagen (75%) – Dillashaw (25%)
    Yanez (70%) – Costa (25%)
    Soriano (65%) – Allen (25%)

    Wanted more of Minner, but wound up taking more Elkins (40%-30%).

    Wound up with too much of Gall (40%), but think I’m staying there.

  • iron_tactics

    Bleached hair narrative apply for Maverick or nah?

  • smonger19

    @iron_tactics said...

    Since I can’t get in the mind of Barber, I have to remove that variable entirely.

    TL/DR

    The range of outcomes on this is so damn wide it might be better to game theory this, and move on. Not safe to assume Maverick rolls Barber the same as she did vs Jojua/Robertson.

    I wound up going 10% Maverick and 20% Barber. I think maybe with Barber going to a new camp (away from her dad telling her how awesome she is), that might help her out.

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    Maverick/Barber > this will be the fight you should take a dump during as Barber will literally throw punches at air for 15 minutes and Maverick will just kind of ineffectively wrestle. I guess Maverick.

    In her defense…lol… the Grasso fight is the only fight I can remember her doing that bs in. It was bad though lol I know, it was hard to watch – especially considering I was on her in that fight. I’m gonna give her one pass. ONE (1). I’m taking her here on blind faith that she goes back to that aggressive style that served her well where she was actually landing punches in close. If she comes out murdering the air again then I done goofed and will take my L.

    I like Elkins too – before the Rosa fight I recall Minner being known as a round 1 sub or bust guy. He switched it up on us and had a great 3 rounds vs Rosa but I’ll be more impressed if he can pull that off vs Elkins. He is 37 though and father time always lurking in the shadows ready to push people off cliffs. We’ll see.

  • thevogaman

    Do we need joe’s 50/50 to fill up or will it count? Still says 14/20 entries.

  • thedkexperience

    A lot of these fights are “sub or bust” to your point.

    I’m hoping bust lol

    Here’s an out of context gif of a WWE match because I don’t let things go. 🤣

  • Caelixx

    @thevogaman said...

    Do we need joe’s 50/50 to fill up or will it count? Still says 14/20 entries.

    I think it locks and will just end up being that 7 out of 14 people win instead of 10 out of 20.

  • thedkexperience

    @thevogaman said...

    Do we need joe’s 50/50 to fill up or will it count? Still says 14/20 entries.

    I’m in!

  • smonger19

    @Caelixx said...

    I think it locks and will just end up being that 7 out of 14 people win instead of 10 out of 20.

    And with me in there, everyone else’s chances rise

  • someclevername

    @thedkexperience said...

    A lot of these fights are “sub or bust” to your point.

    I will be very surprised if Minner can sub Elkins, but anything is surely possible!

  • iron_tactics

    @thedkexperience said...

    I’m in!

    I’m in too, you guys enjoy winning my dirty drug crowns

  • someclevername

    I think Joe suggested either a 50/50 or winner-take-all… maybe a winner-take-all style next time? *Maybe that would fill? Or maybe not, idk. I’ve never created a contest before, but anyone in the league can, right?

    GL everyone

  • iron_tactics

    4/4 Goldy/Barber in Throwdown, 2/4 faded ME.

    Popped my SE in the 50/50. See Soriano is very popular

  • marker0357

    GL All

  • someclevername

    @iron_tactics said...

    I’m in too, you guys enjoy winning my dirty drug crowns

    Got anymore of those crowns?

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